Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

Measurement of the neutron (^3He) spin structure function at low Q^2 : a connection between the Bjorken and Drell-Hearn-Gerasimov sum rules

The spin dependent cross sections, σT_1/2 and σT_3/2 , and asymmetries, A_∥ and A_⊥ for ³He have been measured at the Jefferson Lab's Hall A facility. The inclusive scattering process ³He(e,e)X was performed for initial beam energies ranging from 0.86 to 5.1 GeV, at a scattering angle of 15.5°. Data includes measurements from the quasielastic peak, resonance region, and the deep inelastic regime. An approximation for the extended Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn integral is presented at a 4-momentum transfer Q² of 0.2-1.0 GeV².

Also presented are results on the performance of the polarized ³He target. Polarization of ³He was achieved by the process of spin-exchange collisions with optically pumped rubidium vapor. The ³He polarization was monitored using the NMR technique of adiabatic fast passage (AFP). The average target polarization was approximately 35% and was determined to have a systematic uncertainty of roughly ±4% relative.

Eficiencia y persistencia de los fondos de inversión inmobiliaria en España

[ES] El presente trabajo tiene como objeto el estudio de la eficiencia y persistencia de los rendimientos del total de fondos de inversión inmobiliaria españoles, desde el inicio de su actividad a finales de 1994 a agosto de 2012. Para este propósito se ha utilizado el alfa de Jensen, la ratio de Sharpe, y la aproximación propuesta por Carhart (1997). En cuanto a la eficiencia, la ratio de Sharpe presenta valores negativos en los tres primeros años de actividad de cada fondo y valores muy bajos o incluso negativos en los tres o cuatro últimos años. El indicador de Jensen muestra que la mayoría de los fondos presentan un rendimiento inferior al del mercado, aproximado mediante la rentabilidad de la vivienda y una media de la rentabilidad de todos los fondos inmobiliarios. Carteras de referencia vinculadas a los mercados de deuda o bolsa, no resultan significativas. En el análisis de la persistencia de los rendimientos se confirma su existencia a plazo de uno, dos, tres y cuatro años, para todos los fondos. La evidencia obtenida en nuestro trabajo para los fondos inmobiliarios en España, eficiencia inferior a la del mercado y persistencia en los rendimientos, nos permite confirmar la difícil situación que ha atravesado y en la que sigue inmersa este tipo de inversión colectiva, poniendo de manifiesto la necesidad y la urgencia de medidas impulsoras de su actividad.

Fish demand and supply projections

It has been predicted that the global demand for fish for human consumption will increase by more than 50% over the next 15 years. The FAO has projected that the increase in supply will originate primarily from marine fisheries, aquaculture and to a lesser extent from inland fisheries, but with a commensurate price increase. However, there are constraints to increased production in both marine and inland fisheries, such as overfishing, overexploitation limited potential increase and environmental degradation due to industrialization. The author sees aquaculture as having the greatest potential for future expansion. Aquaculture practices vary depending on culture, environment, society amd sources of fish. Inputs are generally low-cost, ecologically efficient and the majority of aquaculture ventures are small-scale and family operated. In the future, advances in technology, genetic improvement of cultured species, improvement in nutrition, disease management, reproduction control and environmental management are expected along with opportunities for complimentary activities with agriculture, industrial and wastewater linkages. The main constraints to aquaculture are from reduced access to suitable land and good quality water due to pollution and habitat degradation. Aquaculture itself carries minimal potential for aquatic pollution. State participation in fisheries production has not proven to be the best way to promote the fisheries sector. The role of governments is increasingly seen as creating an environment for economic sectors to make an optimum contribution, through support in areas such as infrastructure, research, training and extension and a legal framework. The author feels that a holistic approach integrating the natural and social sciences is called for when fisheries policy is being examined.

Comparison of two approaches for estimating natural mortality based on longevity

Vetter (1988) noted that her review of the estimation of the instantaneous natural mortality rate (M) was initiated by a discussion among colleagues that identified M as the single most impor ta nt but least well-estimated parameter in fishery models. A lthough much has been accomplished in the inter vening years, M remains one of the most difficult parameters to estimate in fishery stock assessments. A number of novel approaches using tagging and telemetry data provide promise for making reliable direct estimates of M for a given stock (Hearn et al., 1998 ; Frusher and Hoenig, 2001; Hightower et al., 2001; Latour et al., 2003; Pollock et al., 2004). However, such methods are often impracticable and fishery scientists must approximate M by using estimates made for other stocks of the same or similar species or by predicting M from features of the species’ life history (Beverton and Holt, 1959; Beverton, 1963; Alverson and Carney, 1975; Pauly, 1980; Hoenig, 1983; Peterson and Wroblewski, 1984; Roff, 1984; Gunderson and Dygert, 1988; Chen and Watanabe, 1989; Charnov, 1993; Jensen, 1996; Lorenzen, 1996).