ECLAC, transnational corporations and the quest for a Latin American development strategy

Includes bibliography

A mixed-integer linear programming approach for optimal type, size and allocation of distributed generation in radial distribution systems

This paper presents a mixed-integer linear programming approach to solving the problem of optimal type, size and allocation of distributed generators (DGs) in radial distribution systems. In the proposed formulation, (a) the steady-state operation of the radial distribution system, considering different load levels, is modeled through linear expressions; (b) different types of DGs are represented by their capability curves; (c) the short-circuit current capacity of the circuits is modeled through linear expressions; and (d) different topologies of the radial distribution system are considered. The objective function minimizes the annualized investment and operation costs. The use of a mixed-integer linear formulation guarantees convergence to optimality using existing optimization software. The results of one test system are presented in order to show the accuracy as well as the efficiency of the proposed solution technique.© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Promoting economic links between the integration schemes of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Global economic developments, 1999

Includes bibliography

Progress made in the implementation of the CARICOM single market and economy

Includes bibliography

Conditional cash transfer programmes: the recent experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013

Includes bibliography.

Chile: subsidies, credit and housing deficit

Includes bibliography.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014: Challenges to sustainable growth in a new external context

Includes bibliography.

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments

For six years, the global economy has been driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Liquidity has flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge in credit-fuelled retail spending. Thus the effective ending of the Fed’s third round of asset purchases (QE3) at the end of October represents both a watershed and the beginning of a new stage in the world economy. The end of asset-purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, with China’s economy slowing, the Euro zone struggling to avoid a recession and the Japanese economy already in recession. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. An appreciated dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, thereby creating pressure for sellers to lower their prices. Latin American markets ended the third quarter of 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. In this changing external context, there are many signs that a slowdown in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) financial markets, particularly debt markets, which have been breaking issuance records for the past six years, may slowdown from now on. Commodity prices – including those of oil, base metals and some goods – are in a prolonged slump. The Bloomberg commodity price index, a benchmark of commodity investments, has fallen to a five-year low as China’s economy slows down, and with it the demand for commodities. Investment into the LAC region has decelerated, in large part because of a deceleration of mining investments. Latin American currencies have suffered depreciations, as current account deficits have widening for a number of countries. And LAC companies, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds may now struggle to service their debt. In October, credit-rating agency Moody’s downgraded the bonds of Brazil’s Petrobras to tow notches above speculative grade because of the impact of falling oil prices and the weaker real on its debt. Growth prospects look brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region. The Institute of International Finance expects the strengthening of the dollar to have a divergent impact across the region, however, depending on trade and financial linkages. The Institute of International Finance, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, October 2, 2014. A stronger dollar lifts U.S. purchasing power, supporting exports, growth and capital inflows in countries with close trade links to the U.S. economy. However, rising dollar financing costs will increase pressure on countries with weak external positions. Given the effects of falling oil prices and a stronger dollar, some companies in the region, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds, may now struggle to service their debts. Prospects of Fed rate hikes resulting in tighter global liquidity amid the rapid rise in the corporate external bond stock has indeed raised concerns over some companies. However, there is still a shortage of bonds at a global level and the region still enjoys good economic policy management for the most part, so LAC debt markets may continue to enjoy momentum despite occasional bursts of high volatility – even if not at the record levels of recent years.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 1997

Incluye Bibliografía.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Labour productivity and distribution issues

Although the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean grew more slowly in 2011 than in 2010, there were some improvements on the employment front. Workers benefited from the region’s satisfactory economic performance in an increasingly complex international setting. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2011 thanks to a halfpercentage- point gain in the urban employment rate. Both rates are at levels that have not been seen for a long time. The proportion of formal jobs with social benefits rose as well, and underemployment declined. The average wage and the minimum wage both increased in real terms, albeit only moderately. Economic performance and the employment situation varied widely among the subregions. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points in South America but 0.4 percentage points in the countries of the northern part of Latin America. In the countries of the Caribbean, the employment rate was up by 0.2 percentage points. The data show that substantial labour market gaps and serious labour-market insertion issues remain. This is especially the case for women and young people, for whom unemployment rates and other labour indicators are still unfavourable. The second part of this report looks at whether the fruits of economic growth and rising productivity have been distributed equitably between workers and companies. Between 2002 and 2008 (the most recent expansionary economic cycle), wages as a percentage of GDP fell in 13 of the 21 countries of the region for which data are available and rose in just 8. This points to redistribution that is unfavourable to workers, which is worrying in a region which already has the most unequal distribution of income in the world. Underlying this trend is the fact that, worldwide, wages have grown less than productivity. Beyond the ethical dimension of this issue, it jeopardizes the social and economic sustainability of growth. For example, one of the root causes of the recent financial crisis was that households in the United States responded to declining wage income by borrowing more to pay for consumption and housing. This turned out to be unsustainable in the long run. Over time, it undermines the labour market’s contribution to the efficient allocation of resources and its distributive function, too, with negative consequences for democratic governance. Among the triggers of this distributive worsening most often cited in the global debate are market deregulation and its impact on financial globalization, technological change that favours capital over labour, and the weakening of labour institutions. What is needed here is a public policy effort to help keep wage increases from lagging behind increases in productivity. Some countries of the region, especially in South America, saw promising developments during the second half of the 2000s in the form of a positive trend reversal in wages as a percentage of GDP. One example is Brazil, where a minimum wage policy tailored to the dynamics of the domestic market is considered to be one of the factors behind an upturn in the wage share of GDP. The region needs to grow more and better. Productivity must grow at a steady pace, to serve as the basis for sustained improvements in the well-being of the populace and to narrow the gap between the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean and the more advanced economies. And inequality must be decreased; this could be achieved by closing the productivity gap between upgraded companies and the many firms whose productivity is low. As set out in this report, the region made some progress between 2002 and 2010, with labour productivity rising at the rate of 1.5% a year. But this progress falls short of that seen in other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa (2.1%) and, above all, East Asia (8.3%, not counting Japan and the Republic of Korea). Moreover, in many of the countries of the region these gains have not been distributed equitably. Therein lies a dual challenge that must be addressed: continue to increase productivity while enhancing the mechanisms for distributing gains in a way that will encourage investment and boost worker and household income. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimate that the pace of economic growth in the region will be slightly slower in 2012 than in 2011, in a global economic scenario marked by the cooling of several of the main economic engines and a high degree of uncertainty concerning, above all, prospects for the euro zone. The region is expected to continue to hold up well to this worsening scenario, thanks to policies that leveraged more favourable conditions in the past. This will be felt in the labour markets, as well, so expectations are that unemployment will edge down by as much as two tenths of a decimal point.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses

As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean during the second quarter of 2009. Regional exports of goods and services contracted in response to sluggish demand on international markets, while remittances and foreign direct investment flows continued to fall, credit lost its buoyancy and the total wage bill diminished, owing mainly to job losses. As a result, the growth forecasts of many countries had to be adjusted downwards. Since the end of 2008, the countries of the region had started to implement countercyclical policies —albeit with significant differences— in an effort to use public spending to counter flagging investment and consumer-spending levels and boost aggregate demand. In this second bulletin, ECLAC and ILO show how the impact of the crisis has deepened in labour markets in the region in the first half of the year and examine existing options and the outcome of public-infrastructure and emergency employment programmes designed to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen in practically all countries compared with the previous year and this situation worsened further in the second quarter, when urban unemployment exceeded the rate of the corresponding period in 2008 by 1 percentage point (to stand at 8.5%, up from 7.5%), while in the first quarter, the variation was 0.6 of a percentage point. Labour indicators also point to an increase in informality, a decline in employment with social protection and a decrease in full-time employment. Labour-market trends observed in the first half-year, together with the forecast for a 1.9% decline in regional GDP in 2009, suggest that the average annual rate of urban unemployment in the region will be close to 8.5%. This forecast is slightly less pessimistic than the estimate given in the first bulletin; this is attributable to the fall in the participation rate in the first half-year to levels that are expected to remain low for the rest of the year. Without this reduction in the labour supply, due largely to the “discouragement effect”, the annual average urban unemployment rate would stand at between 8.8% and 8.9%. Thus, the open urban unemployment figure would increase by 2.5 million and if the “discouraged job-seekers” are included, then the number of additional persons not finding a niche in the urban labour market would climb to 3.2 million. In the region, as in the rest of the world, there are signs that the crisis may have reached bottom in the middle of the year. In many countries, production levels have ceased their decline and there are indications of an incipient recovery leading to cautious optimism that there may be a moderate upturn in labour markets in the fourth quarter. The pace of recovery will vary from one country to the next and is expected to be gradual at best. Even with the return to a growth path, there should be no illusion that the labour problems will immediately disappear. First, the recovery in employment is expected to lag behind the upturn in economic activity. Second, since economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the short term and well below the rates recorded between late 2003 and mid-2008, demand for labour and consequently the generation of good-quality jobs will continue to be weak. Thus, countries should not relax their efforts to defend and create decent jobs, but rather should take steps to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of available instruments. In this way, the region will be in a better position not only to confront the challenges of economic recovery, but also to strengthen the foundations for social inclusion and for advancing under more favourable conditions towards fulfilment of the Millennium Development Goals.

Financing for climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014

Quantifying the resources mobilized to tackle climate change makes it possible to ascertain the region’s status in this area and the opportunities it offers. It provides countries with the detailed information they need to move forward and prepare to meet the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). With accurate, up-to-date information on climate finance flows, countries can define their strategies for the transition to more sustainable development scenarios with a smaller environmental footprint and fiscal agents can identify gaps between supply and demand for specific financial instruments. The hope is that, rather than investment by fund providers and managers in sustainable initiatives with a smaller environmental footprint being an exception or anomaly, it will become a business model that gradually decouples economic development, investment and social inclusion from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10-15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.