Mechanistic studies of mouse skin tumor promotion by chrysarobin

Since the anthrone chrysarobin oxidizes and generates free radicals, investigations were conducted to assess a possible role for free radicals or reactive oxygen species (ROS) in skin tumor promotion by chrysarobin. Epidermal glutathione levels were not noticeably altered by chrysarobin, nor did a glutathione-depleting agent enhance promotion by chrysarobin. Multiple applications of chrysarobin increased lipid peroxide levels in mouse epidermis two-fold as compared with controls. The antioxidant $\alpha$-tocopherol and the lipoxygenase inhibitor nordihydroguaiaretic acid both inhibited production of lipid peroxides by chrysarobin. The antioxidants $\alpha$-tocopherol acetate and ascorbyl palmitate effectively inhibited promotion and promoter-related effects induced by chrysarobin. Since prooxidant states can lead to increases in intracellular Ca$\sp{2+}$, the effect of two Ca$\sp{2+}$ antagonists, verapamil and TMB-8, on chrysarobin-induced promotion and promoter-related effects were investigated. Both Ca$\sp{2+}$ antagonists inhibited promotion and promoter-related effects induced by chrysarobin, suggesting a possible role for intracellular Ca$\sp{2+}$ alterations in chrysarobin-tumor promotion. Since radical generating compounds are reported to possess the ability to enhance progression of papillomas to squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), the effects of chrysarobin on papilloma development were tested. Growth kinetics and regression of papillomas generated with limited promotion with chrysarobin were similar to what was reported for the nonradical generating promoter 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) (Aldaz et al., 1991). To test the chrysarobin's ability to enhance progression of pre-existing papillomas to SCCs, tumors were generated by initiation with dimethylbenz (a) anthracene and promotion with TPA. Then mice were treated with chrysarobin, TPA or acetone for 45 weeks. When mice treated with chrysarobin were compared to mice treated continually with TPA with similar numbers of papillomas, the number of papillomas that progressed to SCCs was similar, suggesting that papilloma burden influences the progression of papillomas to SCCs, rather than radical production. In summary, the present study suggests that chrysarobin produces oxidative stress in mouse epidermis as indicated by the generation of lipid peroxides. Antioxidants inhibited production of lipid peroxides and tumor promotion by chrysarobin. Collectively, these data suggest a role for free radicals or ROS in tumor promotion by chrysarobin. ^

Development and testing of a procedure for systematically assigning gestational age for clinical and research use

A graphing method was developed and tested to estimate gestational ages pre-and postnatally in a consistent manner for epidemiological research and clinical purposes on feti/infants of women with few consistent prenatal estimators of gestational age. Each patient's available data was plotted on a single page graph to give a comprehensive overview of that patient. A hierarchical classification of gestational age determination was then applied in a systematic manner, and reasonable gestational age estimates were produced. The method was tested for validity and reliability on 50 women who had known dates for their last menstrual period or dates of conception, and multiple ultrasound examinations and other gestational age estimating measures. The feasibility of the procedure was then tested on 1223 low income women with few gestational age estimators. The graphing method proved to have high inter- and intrarater reliability. It was quick, easy to use, inexpensive, and did not require special equipment. The graphing method estimate of gestational age for each infant was tested against the last menstrual period gestational age estimate using paired t-Tests, F tests and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of similar populations, producing a 98 percent probability or better that the means and data populations were the same. Less than 5 percent of the infants' gestational ages were misclassified using the graphing method, much lower than the amount of misclassification produced by ultrasound or neonatal examination estimates. ^

Linking Applied Ethnobotany to Social Learning: A Participatory Tool for the Promotion of Indigenous Plants Use in Matutuíne, Southern Mozambique

In its search for pathways towards a more sustainable management of natural resources, development oriented research increasingly faces the challenge to develop new concepts and tools based on transdisciplinarity. Transdisciplinarity can, in terms of an idealized goal, be defined as a research approach that identifies and solves problems not only independently of disciplinary boundaries, but also including the knowledge and perceptions of non-scientific actors in a participatory process. In Mozambique, the Centre for Development and Environment (Berne, Switzerland), in partnership with Impacto and Helvetas (Maputo, Mozambique), has elaborated a new transdisciplinary tool to identify indigenous plants with a potential for commercialization. The tool combines methods from applied ethnobotany with participatory research in a social learning process. This approach was devised to support a development project aimed at creating alternative sources of income for rural communities of Matutuíne district, Southern Mozambique, while reducing the pressure on the natural environment. The methodology, which has been applied and tested, is innovative in that it combines important data collection through participatory research with a social learning process involving both local and external actors. This mutual learning process provides a space for complementary forms of knowledge to meet, eventually leading to the adoption of an integrated approach to natural resource management with an understanding of its ecological, socio-economic and cultural aspects; local stakeholders are included in the identification of potentials for sustainable development. Sustainable development itself, as a normative concept, can only be defined through social learning and consensus building between the local and external stakeholders.

Final Syllable Lengthening (FSL) in Infant Vocalizations

Final Syllable Lengthening (FSL) has been extensively examined in infant vocalizations in order to determine whether its basis is biological or learned. Findings suggest there may be a U-shaped developmental trajectory for FSL. The present study sought to verify this pattern and to determine whether vocal maturity and deafness influence FSL. Eight normally hearing infants, aged 0 ; 3 to 1 ; 0, and eight deaf infants, aged 0 ; 8 to 4 ; 0, were examined at three levels of prelinguistic vocal development: precanonical, canonical, and postcanonical. FSL was found at all three levels suggesting a biological basis for this phenomenon. Individual variability was, however, considerable. Reduction in the magnitude of FSL across the three sessions provided some support for a downward trend for FSL in infancy. Findings further indicated that auditory deprivation can significantly affect temporal aspects of infant speech production.

CATCH across Texas: Building a model for the diffusion of effective school-based health promotion programs

The impact of health promotion programs is related to both program effectiveness and the extent to which the program is implemented among the target population. The purpose of this dissertation was to describe the development and evaluation of a school-based program diffusion intervention designed to increase the rate of dissemination and adoption of the Child and Adolescent Trial for Cardiovascular Health, or CATCH program (recently renamed the Coordinated Approach to Child Health). ^ The first study described the process by which schools across the state of Texas spontaneously began to adopt the CATCH program after it was tested and proven effective in a multi-site randomized efficacy trial. A survey of teachers and administrator representatives of all schools on record that purchased the CATCH program, but were not involved in the efficacy trial, was used to find out who brought CATCH into the schools, how they garnered support for its adoption, why they decided to adopt the program, and what was involved in deciding to adopt. ^ The second study described how the Intervention Mapping framework guided the planning, development and implementation of a program for the diffusion of CATCH. An iterative process was used to integrate theory, literature, the experience of project staff and data from the target population into a meaningful set of program determinants and performance objectives. Proximal program objectives were specified and translated into both media and interpersonal communication strategies for program diffusion. ^ The third study assessed the effectiveness of the diffusion program in a case-comparison design. Three of the twenty Education Service Center regions in Texas were chosen, selected based on similar demographic criteria, and were followed for adoption of the CATCH curriculum. One of these regions received the full media and interpersonal channel intervention; a second received a reduced media-only intervention, and a third received no intervention. Results suggested the use of the interpersonal channels with media follow-up is an effective means to facilitate program dissemination and adoption. The media-alone condition was not effective in facilitating program adoption. ^

Determining acquisition and cessation antecedents to adolescent cigarette smoking for development of intervention strategies

Our national focus and emphasis on the promotion of healthy behavior choices regarding tobacco and other drugs continues to target adolescents. Multiple studies have shown that adolescence is the optimum period for the prevention of substance use initiation as life-long patterns of health behaviors are established during this critical developmental stage. Tobacco use is associated with an increase in morbid and mortal health conditions of which prevalence increases throughout the lifespan. Attention to the antecedents of preventable health conditions aims to modify the risks and identify health promotion factors. Modifying antecedent factors for tobacco initiation in youth and identifying protective factors for successful smoking cessation has major public health implications across the lifespan. Of foremost interest are those risk factors and resultant behaviors that predict a youth's probability of initiating cigarette use and their cessation of cigarette use. Specifically, this dissertation supports previous results identifying intervention variables on the initiation/cessation continuum model especially with the established predictors of smoking (decisional balance and susceptibility) and with more recently identified predictors of smoking (nicotine dependence and withdrawal symptoms) in current and former smokers in a sample of high school students in Austin and Houston, Texas. These results offer insight for the development of appropriate intervention program strategies for our youth. ^

Generation of an hTERT-restricted, CMV-augmented oncolytic adenovirus capable of tumor-specific transgene expression: Development, characterization, and optimization

Current shortcomings in cancer therapy require the generation of new, broadly applicable, potent, targeted treatments. Here, an adenovirus is engineered to replicate specifically in cells with active human telomerase promotion using a modified hTERT promoter, fused to a CMV promoter element. The virus was also modified to contain a visible reporter transgene, GFP. The virus, Ad/hTC-GFP-E1 was characterized in vitro and demonstrated tumor specific activity both by dose and over time course experiments in a variety of cell lines. In vivo, Ad/hTC-GFP-E1 was affected at suppressing tumor growth and providing a survival benefit without causing any measurable toxicity. To increase the host range of the vector, the fiber region was modified to contain an RGD-motif. The vector, AdRGD/hTC-GFP-E1, was recharacterized in vitro, revealing heightened levels of infectivity and toxicity however maintaining a therapeutic window between cancer and normal cell toxicity. AdRGD/hTC-GFP-E1 was administered in vivo by limb perfusion and was observed to be tumor specific both in expression and replication. To further enhance the efficacy of viral vectors in lung delivery, asthma medications were investigated for their abilities to enhance transgene delivery and expression. A combination of bronchodilators, mast cell inhibitors, and mucolytic agents was devised which demonstrated fold increases in expression in immunocompetent mouse lungs as single agents and more homogenous, intense levels of expression when done in combination of all agents. To characterize the methods in which some cancers are resistant or may become resistant to oncolytic treatments, several small molecule inhibitors of metabolic pathways were applied in combination with oncolytic infection in vitro. SP600125 and PD 98059, respective JNK and ERK inhibitors, successfully suppressed oncolytic toxicity, however did not affect infectivity or transgene expression of Ad/hTC-GFP-E1. JNK and ERK inhibition did significantly suppress viral replication, however, as analyzed by lysate transfer and titration assays. In contrast, SB 203580, an inhibitor for p38, did not demonstrate any protective effects with infected cells. Flow cytometric analysis indicated a possible correlation with G1 arrest and suppressed viral production, however more compounds must be investigated to clarify this observation. ^

The critical role and regulation of transcription factor FoxM1 in gastric cancer development and progression

The mammalian Forkhead Box (Fox) transcription factor (FoxM1) is implicated in tumorgenesis. However, the role and regulation of FoxM1 in gastric cancer remain unknown.^ I examined FoxM1 expression in 86 cases of primary gastric cancer and 57 normal gastric tissue specimens. I found weak expression of FoxM1 protein in normal gastric mucosa, whereas I observed strong staining for FoxM1 in tumor-cell nuclei in various gastric tumors and lymph node metastases. The aberrant FoxM1 expression is associated with VEGF expression and increased angiogenesis in human gastric cancer. A Cox proportional hazards model revealed that FoxM1 expression was an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. Furthermore, overexpression of FoxM1 by gene transfer significantly promoted the growth and metastasis of gastric cancer cells in orthotopic mouse models, whereas knockdown of FoxM1 expression by small interfering RNA did the opposite. Next, I observed that alteration of tumor growth and metastasis by elevated FoxM1 expression was directly correlated with alteration of VEGF expression and angiogenesis. In addition, promotion of gastric tumorigenesis by FoxM1 directly and significantly correlated with transactivation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression and elevation of angiogenesis. ^ To further investigate the underlying mechanisms that result in FoxM1 overexpression in gastric cancer, I investigated FoxM1 and Krüppel-like factor 4 (KLF4) expressions in primary gastric cancer and normal gastric tissue specimens. Concomitance of increased expression of FoxM1 protein and decreased expression of KLF4 protein was evident in human gastric cancer. Enforced KLF4 expression suppressed FoxM1 protein expression. Moreover, a region within the proximal FoxM1 promoter was identified to have KLF4-binding sites. Finally, I found an increased FoxM1 expression in gastric mucosa of villin-Cre -directed tissue specific Klf4-null mice.^ In summary, I offered both clinical and mechanistic evidence that dysregulated expression of FoxM1 play an important role in gastric cancer development and progression, while KLF4 mediates negative regulation of FoxM1 expression and its loss significantly contributes to FoxM1 dysregulation. ^

Sexual initiation of U.S. Latino and Colombian high school students: Toward a new theory of adolescent sexuality and implications for sexual health prevention and promotion

The general research question for this dissertation was: do the data on adolescent sexual experiences and sexual initiation support the explicit or implicit adolescent sexuality theories informing the sexual health interventions currently designed for youth? To respond to this inquiry, three different studies were conducted. The first study included a conceptual and historical analysis of the notion of adolescence introduced by Stanley Hall, the development of an alternative model based on a positive view of adolescent sexuality, and the rationale for introducing to adolescent sexual health prevention programs the new definitions of sexual health and the social determinants of health approach. The second one was a quantitative study aimed at surveying not only adolescents' risky sexual behaviors but also sexual experiences associated with desire/pleasure which have been systematically neglected when investigating the sexual and reproductive health of the youth. This study was conducted with a representative sample of the adolescents attending public high schools in the State of Caldas in the Republic of Colombia. The third study was a qualitative analysis of 22 interviews conducted with male and female U.S. Latino adolescents on the reasons for having had or having not had vaginal sex. The more relevant results were: most current adolescent sexual health prevention programs are still framed in a negative approach to adolescent sexuality developed a century ago by Stanley Hall and Sigmund Freud which do not accept the adolescent sexual experience and propose its sublimation. In contrast, the Colombian study indicates that, although there are gender differences, adolescence is for males and females a normal period of sexual initiation not limited to coital activity, in which sexual desire/pleasure is strongly associated with sexual behavior. By the same token, the study about the reasons for having had or not had initiated heterosexual intercourse indicated that curiosity, sexual desire/pleasure, and love are basic motivations for deciding to have vaginal sexual intercourse for the first time and that during adolescence, young women and men reach the cognitive development necessary for taking conscious decisions about their sexual acts. The findings underline the importance of asking pertinent questions about desire/pleasure when studying adolescent sexuality and adopting an evidence-based approach to sexual health interventions.^

Growth and development of body fat distribution from skinfold measurements: Longitudinal principal components

Longitudinal principal components analyses on a combination of four subcutaneous skinfolds (biceps, triceps, subscapular and suprailiac) were performed using data from the London Longitudinal Growth Study. The main objectives were to discover at what age during growth sex differences in body fat distribution occur and to see if there is continuity in body fatness and body fat distribution from childhood into the adult status (18 years). The analyses were done for four age sectors (3mon-3yrs, 3yrs-8yrs, 8yrs-18yrs and 3yrs-18yrs). Longitudinal principal component one (LPC1) for each age interval in both sexes represents the population mean fat curve. Component two (LPC2) is a velocity of fatness component. Component three (LPC3) in the 3mon-3yrs age sector represents infant fat wave in both sexes. In the next two age sectors component three in males represents peaks and shifts in fat growth (change in velocity), while in females it represents body fat distribution. Component four (LPC4) in the same two age sectors is a reversal in the sexes of the patterns seen for component three, i.e., in males it is body fat distribution and in females velocity shifts. Components five and above represent more complicated patterns of change (multiple increases and decreases across the age interval). In both sexes there is strong tracking in fatness from middle childhood to adolescence. In males only there is also a low to moderate tracking of infant fat with middle to late childhood fat. These data are strongly supported in the literature. Several factors are known to predict adult fatness among the most important being previous levels of fatness (at earlier ages) and the age at rebound. In addition we found that the velocity of fat change in middle childhood was highly predictive of later fatness (r $\approx -$0.7), even more so than age at rebound (r $\approx -$0.5). In contrast to fatness (LPC1), body fat distribution (LPC3-LPC4) did not track well even though significant components of body fat distribution occur at each age. Tracking of body fat distribution was higher in females than males. Sex differences in body fat distribution are non existent. Some sex differences are evident with the peripheral-to-central ratios after age 14 years. ^

STRATEGIES FOR THE TRANSFER OF APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE IMPLEMENTATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PROGRAMS IN TUNISIA

This dissertation focuses on Project HOPE, an American medical aid agency, and its work in Tunisia. More specifically this is a study of the implementation strategies of those HOPE sponsored projects and programs designed to solve the problems of high morbidity and infant mortality rates due to environmentally related diarrheal and enteric diseases. Several environmental health programs and projects developed in cooperation with Tunisian counterparts are described and analyzed. These include (1) a paramedical manpower training program; (2) a national hospital sanitation and infection control program; (3) a community sewage disposal project; (4) a well reconstruction project; and (5) a solid-waste disposal project for a hospital.^ After independence, Tunisia, like many developing countries, encountered several difficulties which hindered progress toward solving basic environmental health problems and prompted a request for aid. This study discusses the need for all who work in development programs to recognize and assess those difficulties or constraints which affect the program planning process, including those latent cultural and political constraints which not only exist within the host country but within the aid agency as well. For example, failure to recognize cultural differences may adversely affect the attitudes of the host staff towards their work and towards the aid agency and its task. These factors, therefore, play a significant role in influencing program development decisions and must be taken into account in order to maximize the probability of successful outcomes.^ In 1969 Project HOPE was asked by the Tunisian government to assist the Ministry of Health in solving its health manpower problems. HOPE responded with several programs, one of which concerned the training of public health nurses, sanitary technicians, and aids at Tunisia's school of public health in Nabeul. The outcome of that program as well as the strategies used in its development are analyzed. Also, certain questions are addressed such as, what should the indicators of success be, and when is the time right to phase out?^ Another HOPE program analyzed involved hospital sanitation and infection control. Certain generic aspects of basic hospital sanitation procedures were documented and presented in the form of a process model which was later used as a "microplan" in setting up similar programs in other Tunisian hospitals. In this study the details of the "microplan" are discussed. The development of a nation-wide program without any further need of external assistance illustrated the success of HOPE's implementation strategies.^ Finally, although it is known that the high incidence of enteric disease in developing countries is due to poor environmental sanitation and poor hygiene practices, efforts by aid agencies to correct these conditions have often resulted in failure. Project HOPE's strategy was to maximize limited resources by using a systems approach to program development and by becoming actively involved in the design and implementation of environmental health projects utilizing "appropriate" technology. Three innovative projects and their implementation strategies (including technical specifications) are described.^ It is advocated that if aid agencies are to make any progress in helping developing countries basic sanitation problems, they must take an interdisciplinary approach to progrm development and play an active role in helping counterparts seek and identify appropriate technologies which are socially and economically acceptable. ^

Non-nutritive sucking and the preterm infant

Background. Preterm birth is major public health problem. Preterm infants face a post-natal environment that their under developed systems are inapt to manage. Developmentally supportive individualized care has demonstrated positive outcomes in minimizing resulting negative effects. Non-nutritive sucking (NNS) interventions are thought to promote the development of the suck-swallow-breathe mechanism and a calming tool. It is hypothesized that growth and development is maintained by strengthened sucking skills and stable behavioral states.^ Objective. To determine the importance of non-nutritive sucking (NNS) on outcomes that are clinically relevant to the preterm infant population.^ Methods. A computerized search of MEDLINE and PUBMED databases during the period of 1975 and May 2011 was conducted. Relevant articles were selected using published criteria for detecting clinically validated studies. The search yielded 10 randomized controlled studies relative to the outcomes of interest: weight gain, time to full feeds, time to discharge from hospital, and pain response.^ Results. NNS was found to decrease significantly the length of hospitalization in preterm infants. Although positive results were reported in some of the studies, the results did not show a consistent benefit of NNS with respect to other major clinical variables. NNS was shown to reduce distress following painful stimuli.^ Conclusion. Although NNS shows promise for the development of preterm infants, there is lack of agreement concerning some of the outcomes of interest. Evidence does support NNS's positive contribution to early hospital discharge and pain relief. Future research should focus on long-term, comparable outcomes. ^

Targeting AKT/mTOR Signaling Pathways During Murine Skin Tumor Promotion and the Impact of Dietary Energy Balance Manipulation

The prevalence of obesity has continued to rise over the last several decades in the United States lending to overall increases in risk for chronic diseases including many types of cancer. In contrast, reduction in energy consumption via calorie restriction (CR) has been shown to be a potent inhibitor of carcinogenesis across a broad range of species and tumor types. Previous data has demonstrated differential signaling through Akt and mTOR via the IGF-1R and other growth factor receptors across the diet-induced obesity (DIO)/CR spectrum. Furthermore, mTORC1 is known to be regulated directly via nutrient availability, supporting its role in the link between epithelial carcinogenesis and diet-induced obesity. In an effort to better understand the importance of mTORC1 in the context of both positive and negative energy balance during epithelial carcinogenesis, we have employed the use of specific pharmacological inhibitors, rapamycin (mTORC1 inhibitor) and metformin (AMPK activator) to target mTORC1 or various components of this pathway during skin tumor promotion. Two-stage skin carcinogenesis studies demonstrated that mTORC1 inhibition via rapamycin, metformin or combination treatments greatly inhibited skin tumor development in normal, overweight and obese mice. Furthermore, mechanisms by which these chemopreventive agents may be exerting their anti-tumor effects were explored. In addition, the effect of these compounds on the epidermal proliferative response was analyzed and drastic decreases in epidermal hyperproliferation and hyperplasia were found. Rapamycin also inhibited dermal inflammatory cell infiltration in a dose-dependent manner. Both compounds also blocked or attenuated TPA-induced signaling through epidermal mTORC1 as well as several downstream targets. In addition, inhibition of this pathway by metformin appeared to be, at least in part, dependent on AMPK activation in the skin. Overall, the data indicate that pharmacological strategies targeting this pathway offset the tumor-enhancing effects of DIO and may serve as possible CR mimetics. They suggest that mTORC1 contributes significantly to the process of skin tumor promotion, specifically during dietary energy balance effects. Exploiting the mechanistic information underlying dietary energy balance responsive pathways will help translate decades of research into effective strategies for prevention of epithelial carcinogenesis.

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^