Transformation of the Financial Sector in Indonesia

Introduction : The source and deployment of finance are central issues in economic development. Since 1966, when the Soeharto Administration was inaugurated, Indonesian economic development has relied on funds in the form of aid from international organizations and foreign countries. After the 1990s, a further abundant inflow of capital sustained a rapid economic development. Foreign funding was the basis of Indonesian economic growth. This paper will describe the mechanism for allocating funds in the Indonesian economy. It will identify the problems this mechanism generated in the Indonesian experience, and it will attempt to explain why there was a collapse of the financial system in the wake of the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997. History of the Indonesian Financial system The year 1966 saw the emergence of commercial banks in Indonesia. It can be said that before 1966 a financial system hardly existed, a fact commonly attributed to economic disruptions like the consecutive runs of fiscal deficit and hyperinflation under the Soekarno Administration. After 1996, with the inauguration of Soeharto, a regulatory system of financial legislation, e.g. central banking law and banking regulation, was introduced and implemented, and the banking sector that is the basis of the current financial system in Indonesia was built up. 　　　The Indonesian financial structure was significantly altered at the first financial reform of 1983. Between 1966 and 1982, the banking sector consisted of Bank Indonesia (the Central Bank) and the state-owned banks. There was also a system for distributing the abundant public revenue derived from the soaring oil price of the 1970s. The public finance distribution function, incorporated in Indonesian financial system, changed after the successive financial reforms of 1983 and 1988, when there was a move away from the monopoly-market style dominated by state-owned banks (which was a system of public finance distribution that operated at the discretion of the government) towards a modern market mechanism. The five phases of development The Indonesian financial system developed in five phases between 1966 and the present time. The first period (1966-72) was its formative period, the second (1973-82) its policy based finance period under soaring oil prices, the third (1983-91) its financial-reform period, the fourth (1992-97) its period of expansion, and the fifth (1998-) its period of financial restructuring. The first section of this paper summarizes the financial policies operative during each of the periods identified above. In the second section changes to the financial sector in response to policies are examined, and an analysis of these changes shows that an important development of the financial sector occurred during the financial reform period. In the third section the focus of analysis shifts from the general financial sector to particular commercial banks’ performances. In the third section changes in commercial banks’ lending and fund-raising behaviour after the 1990s are analysed by comparing several banking groups in terms of their ownership and foundation time. The last section summarizes the foregoing analyses and examines the problems that remain in the Indonesian financial sector, which is still undergoing restructuring.

Who Uses FTAs?

It is noted that utilization of AFTA is low by international standards. In order to clarify the reasons for such low utilization, this paper investigates what kinds of Japanese affiliates in ASEAN are more likely to use FTAs in their exporting, by employing unique affiliate-level data. Our findings are as follow. First, the larger the affiliate is, or the more diversified its procurements’ origins are, the more likely it is to utilize an FTA scheme in its exporting. Second, affiliates exporting actively to developing countries are more likely to use FTAs than those exporting to developed countries. Third, there are clear differences in FTA utilization depending on affiliates’ locations and sectors. These results afford a clue to the reasons for the low FTA utilization in East Asia.

Measuring fixed costs for firms' use of a free trade agreement : threshold regression approach

In this paper, by employing the threshold regression method, we estimate the average tariff equivalent of fixed costs for the use of a free trade agreement (FTA) among all existing FTAs in the world. It is estimated to be 3.2%. This global estimate serves as a reference rate in the evaluation of each FTA’s fixed costs.

The role of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in facilitating global production networks

This paper examines the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in facilitating international trade flows connecting production networks. We consider over 250 PTAs with trade flows distinguished into parts and components and final goods for the period 1979-2008. The gravity equation estimates suggest that the concurrent year effects of PTA formation on trade in parts and components are unseen, whereas PTAs have positive and pervasive effects on both types of trade flows 6 and 9 years after the PTA formation.

Strategic trade policy and non-linear subsidy : in the case of price competition

In a strategic trade policy, it is assumed, in this paper, that a government changes disbursement or levy method so that the reaction function of home firm approaches infinitely close to that of foreign firm. In the framework of Bertrand-Nash equilibrium, Eaton and Grossman[1986] showed that export tax is preferable to export subsidy. In this paper, it is shown that export subsidy is preferable to export tax in some cases in the framework of Bertrand-Nash equilibrium, considering the uncertainty in demand. Historically, many economists mentioned non-linear subsidy or tax. However, optimum solution of it has not yet been shown. The optimum solution is shown in this paper.

Does the use of multiple FTAs force firms to raise local input share? : evidence of the spaghetti bowl phenomenon

This paper empirically investigates the firm-level relationship between the local input share and the number of used FTAs by employing the data on FTA utilization in Japanese affiliates in ASEAN. As a result, we do not find a robust linear relationship. However, affiliates using a large number of FTAs (seven or eight) have an extremely higher share of local inputs. This result might be interpreted as the first evidence of the “spaghetti bowl phenomenon”.

Selection and utilization of the early harvest list : evidence from the Free Trade Agreement between China and Taiwan

In this paper, we conducted an empirical investigation into the determinants of FTA utilization in exports from Taiwan to China. To do this, we first estimated the selection equation to see what kinds of products are included in the early harvest list. As a result, we found that Taiwan includes products with a medium magnitude of benefits from tariff removal in the early harvest list. Taiwan also includes products for which ASEAN countries have better access to the China market. We then estimated the equation for the determinants of FTA utilization by introducing an inverse of the Mills ratio estimated in the selection equation. The findings are that, as usual, the FTA rates are more likely to be utilized for products with a larger tariff margin. In addition, some rules of origin are found to be relatively restrictive in terms of discouraging trade.

Firms' use of FTA schemes in exporting and importing : is there a two-way relationship?

In this paper, we examine the roles of firm size in the use of FTA schemes in exporting and importing. Also, it is investigated as to whether FTA users in importing (exporting) are more likely to use FTA schemes in exporting (importing). To do that, we employed a unique survey in which the detailed information on FTA use is available for Japanese affiliates in ASEAN. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, firm size matters in the use of FTA schemes only in exporting, not in importing. Second, the past experience of FTA use in exporting (importing) does not help firms use the FTA schemes in importing (exporting). Thus, it is necessary to assist firms to use FTA schemes in exporting even if they are already using FTA schemes in importing.

Impacts of FTA utilization on firm performance

The international export and investment activities of firms have been widely studied by scholars. In particular, prior studies have focused on two main hypotheses about firms engaged in international activities such as exporting and investing abroad; namely, self-selection of more productive firms into international activities and learning-by-doing international activities. This paper is the first study that explores these hypotheses in regard to firms’ use of free trade agreements (FTAs). We first estimate the propensity score for firms’ use of FTA schemes, and find that larger firms are more likely to participate. Then, by conducting matching analysis using the propensity scores, we find that the use of FTA schemes does not change employment in firms, but does result in more local inputs used and increased exports.

アジア経済研究所図書館所蔵の統計資料コレクションと開発途上地域の統計事情 : 連載「新興地域の統計事情」を始めるにあたって

アジア経済研究所図書館では，50年以上にわたって開発地域の統計資料を網羅的に収集してきた。本稿では，これら資料の収集方法，コレクションの特色，整備・提供方法を説明するとともに，これまでの蔵書構築等を通じて把握してきた開発途上地域の公式統計の整備・公開状況と最近の動向について報告する。また，国際機関による国際比較統計の編纂状況と近年のオープン・データ政策について簡単に概説する。参考資料として主要な国際機関の統計情報一覧と調べ方ガイドを掲載する。

Measuring the costs of FTA utilization : evidence from transaction-level import data of Thailand

In this study, we measure the utilization costs of free trade agreement (FTA) tariff schemes. To do that, we use shipment-level customs data on Thai imports, which identify not only firms, source country, and commodity but also tariff schemes. We propose several measures as a proxy for FTA utilization costs. The example includes the minimum amount of firm-level savings on tariff payments, i.e., trade values under FTA schemes multiplied by the tariff margin, in all transactions. Consequently, the median costs for FTA utilization in 2008, for example, are estimated to be approximately US$2,000 for exports from China, US$300 for exports from Australia, and US$1,000 for exports from Japan. We also found that FTA utilization costs differ by rule of origin and industry.