An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng g−1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng g−1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g−1. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m−2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m−2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m−2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set has been generated using the same methodology as the widely used WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) by making use of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We discuss the specifics of how changes in the reanalysis and processing have led to improvement over the WFD. We attribute improvements in precipitation and wind speed to the latest reanalysis basis data and improved downward shortwave fluxes to the changes in the aerosol corrections. Covering 1979–2012, the WFDEI will allow more thorough comparisons of hydrological and Earth System model outputs with hydrologically and phenologically relevant satellite products than using the WFD.

Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land-use in the representative concentration pathways

Climate change is projected to cause substantial alterations in vegetation distribution, but these have been given little attention in comparison to land-use in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here we assess the climate-induced land cover changes (CILCC) in the RCPs, and compare them to land-use land cover change (LULCC). To do this, we use an ensemble of simulations with and without LULCC in earth system model HadGEM2-ES for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We find that climate change causes an expansion poleward of vegetation that affects more land area than LULCC in all of the RCPs considered here. The terrestrial carbon changes from CILCC are also larger than for LULCC. When considering only forest, the LULCC is larger, but the CILCC is highly variable with the overall radiative forcing of the scenario. The CILCC forest increase compensates 90% of the global anthropogenic deforestation by 2100 in RCP8.5, but just 3% in RCP2.6. Overall, bigger land cover changes tend to originate from LULCC in the shorter term or lower radiative forcing scenarios, and from CILCC in the longer term and higher radiative forcing scenarios. The extent to which CILCC could compensate for LULCC raises difficult questions regarding global forest and biodiversity offsetting, especially at different timescales. This research shows the importance of considering the relative size of CILCC to LULCC, especially with regard to the ecological effects of the different RCPs.

Two-way CSI-assisted AF relaying with HPA nonlinearity

In this paper, we investigate half-duplex two-way dual-hop channel state information (CSI)-assisted amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying in the presence of high-power amplifier (HPA) nonlinearity at relays. The expression for the end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is derived as per the modified system model by taking into account the interference caused by relaying scheme and HPA nonlinearity. The system performance of the considered relaying network is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP) in Nakagami-$m$ fading channels, by making use of the moment-generating function (MGF) approach. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several parameters, such as quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) order, number of relays, HPA parameters, and Nakagami parameter, on performance.

Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Uncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost, and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, we characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. We find that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures, and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up to a year, whereas oceanic heat flux tends to dominate regionally and on interannual time scales. There is in general a strong negative covariance between surface heat flux and ocean vertical heat flux at depth, and anomalies of lateral ocean heat transport are wind-driven, which suggests that the unpredictable oceanic heat flux variability is mainly forced by the atmosphere. These results are qualitatively robust across different initial states, but substantial variations in the amplitude of IFU exist. We conclude that both atmospheric variability and the initial state of the upper ocean are key ingredients for predictions of Arctic surface climate on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

The energy cycle and structural evolution of cyclones over southeastern South America in three case studies

In this paper, the Lorenz energy cycle over a limited area was applied for three cyclones with different origins and evolutions, where each of them was formed in an important cyclogenetic region near southeastern South America. The synoptic conditions and energetics were analyzed during each system`s life cycle and showed important relationships between their energy cycle and the evolution of their vertical structure. In the case of the weak baroclinic cyclone which formed on Brazil`s south-southeastern coast, the analysis showed that it originated through a midlevel cutoff low with contribution from barotropic instability. Its evolution would indicate potential transition to a hybrid system if the convective activity were stronger. The system that occurred in the La Plata River mouth had features of an oceanic bomb-type cyclogenesis and showed an important contribution from the available potential energy generation term through the latent heat release by the convection. Meanwhile, the system of the southern Argentina coast presented a classical baroclinic development of extratropical cyclogenesis in the energy cycle, from the wave amplification up to the final occlusion of the associated frontal system. These analyses revealed that the development of some cyclones that occur in eastern South America can present different mechanisms that are not related to the classical extratropical cyclogenesis.

Selective Wrapping and Supramolecular Structures of Polyfluorene-Carbon Nanotube Hybrids

We report on the photophysical properties of single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) suspensions In toluene solutions of poly[9,9-dioctylfluorenyl-2,7-diyl](PFO). Steady-state and time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy in the near-infrared and visible spectral regions are used to study the interaction of the dispersed SWNTs with the wrapped polymer. Molecular dynamics simulations of the PFO-SWNT hybrids in toluene were carried out to evaluate the energetics of different wrapping geometries. The simulated fluorescence spectra in the visible region were obtained by the quantum chemical ZINDO-CI method, using a sampling of structures obtained from the dynamics trajectories. The tested schemes consider polymer chains aligned along the nanotube axis, where chirality has a minimal effect, or forming helical structures, where a preference for high chiral angles is evidenced. Moreover, toluene affects the polymer structure favoring the helical conformation. Simulations show that the most stable hybrid system is the PFO-wrapped (8,6) nanotube, in agreement with the experimentally observed selectivity.

Raman spectroscopy analysis of structural photoinduced changes in GeS(2) + Ga(2)O(3) thin films

Photoexpansion and photobleaching effects have been observed in amorphous GeS(2) + Ga(2)O(3) (GGSO) thin films, when their surfaces were exposed to UV light. The photoinduced changes on the surface of the samples are indications that the structure has been changed as a result of photoexcitation. In this paper, micro-Raman, energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX) and backscattering electrons (BSE) microscopy were the techniques used to identify the origin of these effects. Raman spectra revealed that these phenomena are a consequence of the Ge-S bonds` breakdown and the formation of new Ge-O bonds, with an increase of the modes associated with Ge-O-Ge bonds and mixed oxysulphide tetrahedral units (S-Ge-O). The chemical composition measured by EDX and BSE microscopy images indicated that the irradiated area is oxygen rich. So, the present paper provides fundamental insights into the influence of the oxygen within the glass matrix on the considered photoinduced effects. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular characterization of Arabidopsis thaliana PUF proteins - binding specificity and target candidates

PUF proteins regulate both stability and translation through sequence-specific binding to the 3` UTR of target mRNA transcripts. Binding is mediated by a conserved PUF domain, which contains eight repeats of approximately 36 amino acids each. Found in all eukaryotes, they have been related to several developmental processes. Analysis of the 25 Arabidopsis Pumilio (APUM) proteins presenting PUF repeats reveals that 12 (APUM-1 to APUM-12) have a PUF domain with 50-75% similarity to the Drosophila PUF domain. Through three-hybrid assays, we show that APUM-1 to APUM-6 can bind specifically to the Nanos response element sequence recognized by Drosophila Pumilio. Using an Arabidopsis RNA library in a three-hybrid screening, we were able to identify an APUM-binding consensus sequence. Computational analysis allowed us to identify the APUM-binding element within the 3` UTR in many Arabidopsis transcripts, even in important mRNAs related to shoot stem cell maintenance. We demonstrate that APUM-1 to APUM-6 are able to bind specifically to APUM-binding elements in the 3` UTR of WUSCHEL, CLAVATA-1, PINHEAD/ZWILLE and FASCIATA-2 transcripts. The results obtained in the present study indicate that the APUM proteins may act as regulators in Arabidopsis through an evolutionarily conserved mechanism, which may open up a new approach for investigating mRNA regulation in plants.

Using locally available components and local knowledge to build sustainable stand-alone power systems

The aim of this paper is to point out benefits as well as disadvantages associated with the use of locally available, not necessarily standardized, components in stand-alone electrical power systems at rural locations. Advantages and challenges arising when the direct involvement in design, construction and maintenance of the power system is reserved to people based in the area of implementation are discussed. The presented research is centered around one particular PV-diesel hybrid system in Tanzania; a case study in which technical and social aspects related to the particular power system are studied.

On Compositional Modelling

Many solutions to AI problems require the task to be represented in one of a multitude of rigorous mathematical formalisms. The construction of such mathematical models forms a difficult problem which is often left to the user of the problem solver. This void between problem solvers and the problems is studied by the eclectic field of automated modelling. Within this field, compositional modelling, a knowledge-based methodology for system modelling, has established itself as a leading approach. In general, a compositional modeller organises knowledge in a structure of composable fragments that relate to particular system components or processes. Its embedded inference mechanism chooses the appropriate fragments with respect to a given problem, instantiates and assembles them into a consistent system model. Many different types of compositional modeller exist, however, with significant differences in their knowledge representation and approach to inference. This paper examines compositional modelling. It presents a general framework for building and analysing compositional modellers. Based on this framework, a number of influential compositional modellers are examined and compared. The paper also identifies the strengths and weaknesses of compositional modelling and discusses some typical applications.

Collective bargaining in Brazilian manufacturing, 1978-95

Collective bargaining, it is widely claimed, has been on the increase in Brazil since the late 1970s. This is seen as part of a broader change in Brazilian industrial relations towards a hybrid system of interest representation, in which elements of both the old state corporatism and pluralism now coexist. However, there is little or no systematic empirical evidence available to support this conclusion. This thesis addresses the question of the strengthening of collective bargaining as a method of job regulation in Brazil by providing a detailed empirical study. The questions of this study are: (a) how important has collective bargaining become in establishing provisions on the terms and conditions of the employment relationship which are not simply reproducing rules established via state regulation?; and (b) what factors accounted for changes in the content of these provisions? An analysis of 10,734 provisions in 287 collective agreements in manufacturing industries in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, the capital of the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, was carried out for the period of 1978-95. This analysis offers support for the thesis that the significance of collective bargaining has increased. It shows that: (a) most substantive provisions created rules that were not established in other forms of regulation; (b) provisions that replicate the contents of regulatory legislation accounted for one out of seven substantive provisions, but in spite of being a copy of the law, these provisions are not entirely neutral for job regulation; (c) collective agreements also laid down substantive provisions benefiting employers, and not simply employees; and (d) the pace of change in bargaining outcomes oscillated with changes in the economic, legal and judicial contexts. This pace of change was mostly affected by (i) the rate of unemployment, (ii) the degree of openness of the economy to foreign competition, (iii) the capacity of employers to pass on costs to costumers, (iv) stabilisation policies aimed at curbing inflation, (v) the Federal Constitution made in 1988, (vi) the official rate of minimum wages, and (vii) the conduct of the labour judicial system in settling collective disputes.

Suspeição e impedimento nos processos objetivos de controle de constitucionalidade concentrado

O Brasil adota o sistema hibrido de controle de constitucionalidade, englobando tanto a modalidade difusa como a concentrada. O objeto do trabalho é o controle concentrado, que se caracteriza por um processo objetivo onde inexistem partes em sentido formal e conflito de interesses subjetivos. Aprioristicamente, a objetividade dá a entender que institutos que dizem respeito à subjetividade do julgador, como o impedimento e a suspeição, não seriam aplicáveis. O posicionamento do Supremo Tribunal Federal se aproxima desta concepção, aceitando hipóteses muito restritas de aplicação do impedimento e rechaçando a incidência da suspeição. Esta posição reclama urgente revisão por parte da Corte pelas razões expostas e estudos de julgados apresentados no trabalho.