The Rebound Effect with Energy Production: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis

Rebound is the extent to which improvements in energy efficiency fail to translate fully into reductions in energy use because of the implicit fall in the price of energy, when measured in efficiency units. This paper discusses aspects of the rebound effect that are introduced once energy is considered as a domestically produced commodity. A partial equilibrium approach is adopted in order to incorporate both energy use and production in a conceptually tractable way. The paper explores analytically two interesting results revealed in previous numerical simulations. The first is the possibility that energy use could fall by more than the implied improvement in efficiency. This corresponds to negative rebound. The second is the finding that the short-run rebound value can be greater than the corresponding long-run value.

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be ���inefficient��� in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.

The regional employment impacts of renewable energy expenditures: The case for modelling

One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domestically���based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ���legacy��� effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance.

The regional employment impacts of renewable energy expenditures: The case for modelling

One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domestically���based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ���legacy��� effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance.

The regional economic impacts of biofuels: A review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications

The regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors: the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed; the sector���s embeddedness to the rest of the economy, through its demand for local resources; the extent to which new activity is created. These issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models. Some studies have used (fixed price) Input-Output (IO) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling frameworks, whilst a nascent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) literature has also begun to examine the regional (and national) impact of biofuel development. This paper reviews, compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels.

The regional economic impacts of biofuels: A review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications

The regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors: the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed; the sector���s embeddedness to the rest of the economy, through its demand for local resources; the extent to which new activity is created. These issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models. Some studies have used (fixed price) Input-Output (IO) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling frameworks, whilst a nascent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) literature has also begun to examine the regional (and national) impact of biofuel development. This paper reviews, compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels.

Shallow-level migmatization of gabbros in a metamorphic contact aureole, Fuerteventura Basal Complex, Canary Islands

Migmatization of gabbroic rocks at 2-3 kbar has occurred in the metamorphic contact aureole of a mafic pluton in the Fuerteventura Basal Complex (Canary Island;). Migmatites are characterized by a dense network: of closely spaced millimetre-wide leucocratic veins with perfectly preserved igneous textures. They are all relatively enriched in Al, Na I: Sr Ba, Nb, Y and the rare earth elements compared with the unaffected country rock beyond the aureole. Migmatization under such low-pressure conditions war possible because of the unusual tectonic and magmatic contact in which ii occurred. Multiple basic intrusions associated with extrusive volcanic activity created high heat flow in a small area. Alkaline and metasomatized rocks present in the country rock of the intruding pluton were leached by high-temperature fluids during contact metamorphism. These enriched fluids then favoured partial melting of the host gabbroic rocks, and contaminated both the leucosomes and melanosomes. A transpressive tectonic setting at the time of intrusion created shearing along the contact between the intrusion and its host rock. This shearing enhanced circulation of the fluids and allowed segregation of the nea-formed melts from their restite by opening tension veins into which the melts migrated. Depending on the relative timing of melt segregation and recrystallization leucosomes range in composition from a 40-60% mixture of clinopyroxene (+/- amphibole) and plagioclase to almost pure feldspathic veins. Comparable occurrences of gabbros migmatized at low pressure are expected only at a snail scale in localized areas of high heat flow in the presence of fluids, such as in. mid-ocean ridges or ocean-islands.

Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth

Forecasts of differences in growth between countries serve an important role in the justification of governments��� fiscal policy stances, but are not tested for their accuracy as part of the current range of forecast evaluation methods. This paper examines forecasted and outturn growth differentials between countries to identify if there is usefulness in forecasts of ���relative��� growth. Using OECD forecasts and outturn values for GDP growth for (combinations of) the G7 countries between 1984 and 2010, the paper finds that the OECD���s success in predicting the relative growth of G7 countries during this period is good. For each two-country combination results indicate that relative growth forecasts are less useful for countries which have smaller outturn growth differentials.

The Impacts of Temporary and Anticipated Tourism Spending.

Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary tourism impacts; particular problems lie in its treatment of factor supplies and its lack of dynamics. Recent work argues that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis is more appropriate and this has been widely applied. Neglected in this literature however is an understanding of the role that behavioural characteristics and factor supply assumptions play in determining the economic impact of tourist expenditures, particularly where expenditures are temporary (i.e. of limited duration) and anticipated (i.e. known in advance). This paper uses a CGE model for Scotland in which agents can have myopic- or forward-looking behaviours and shows how these alternative specifications affect the timing and scale of the economic impacts from anticipated and temporary tourism expenditure. The tourism shock analysed is of a scale expected for the Commonwealth Games to be held in Glasgow in 2014. The model shows how ���pre-shock��� and ���legacy��� effects ��� impacts before and after the shock ��� arise and their quantitative importance. Using the forward-looking model the paper calculates the optimal degree of pre-announcement.

Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

The effects of feeding Karlodinium veneficum (PLY # 103; Gymnodinium veneficum Ballantine) to the blue mussel Mytilus edulis

The effects of exposure to the type species for Karlodinium veneficum (PLY # 103) on immune function and histopathology in the blue mussel Mytilus edulis were investigated. Mussels from Whitsand Bay, Cornwall (UK) were exposed to K. veneficum (PLY # 103) for 3 and 6 days. Assays for immune function included total and differential cells counts, phagocytosis and release of extra cellular reactive oxygen species. Histology was carried out on digestive gland and mantle tissues. The toxin cell quota for K. veneficum (PLY #103) was measured by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry detecting two separable toxins KvTx1 (11.6 �� 5.4 ng/ml) and KvTx2 (47.7 �� 4.2 ng/ml). There were significant effects of K. veneficum exposure with increasing phagocytosis and release of reactive oxygen species following 6 days exposure. There were no significant effects on total cell counts. However, differential cell counts did show significant effects after 3 days exposure to the toxic alga. All mussels produced faeces but not pseudofaeces indicating that algae were not rejected prior to ingestion. Digestive glands showed ingestion of the algae and hemocyte infiltration after 3 days of exposure, whereas mantle tissue did not show differences between treatments. As the effects of K. veneficum were not observed in the mantle tissue it can be hypothesized that the algal concentration was not high enough, or exposure long enough, to affect all the tissues. Despite being in culture for more than 50 years the original K. veneficum isolate obtained by Mary Parke still showed toxic effects on mussels.

Bacillus sphaericus mosquito pathogens in the aquatic environment

The fate of Bacillus sphaericus spores in the aquatic environment was investigated by suspending spores in dialysis bags in fresh and seawater. Spore viability was lost more rapidly in seawater. Neither B. sphaericus nor B. thuringiensis israelensis (B.t.i.) spores mixed with pond sediment appeared to attach to the sediment. However, rapid decrease in B.t.i. toxicity suggested attachment of parasporal bodies to sediment. B. sphaericus toxin settled more slowly and less completely. B. sphaericus spores fed to larvae of four aquatic invertebrates were mostly eliminated from the animal gut in less than one week. An exception was the cranefly (Tipula abdominalis) where spores persisted in the posterior gut for up to five weeks.

Reconstruction threshold for the hardcore model

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C*-algebras nearly contained in type I algebras

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