946 resultados para Heurística surrogate


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The aims of this study are to consider the experience of flow from a nonlinear dynamics perspective. The processes and temporal nature of intrinsic motivation and flow, would suggest that flow experiences fluctuate over time in a dynamical fashion. Thus it can be argued that the potential for chaos is strong. The sample was composed of 20 employees (both full and part time) recruited from a number of different organizations and work backgrounds. The Experience Sampling Method (ESM) was used for data collection. Once obtained the temporal series, they were subjected to various analyses proper to the com- plexity theory (Visual Recurrence Analysis and Surrogate Data Analysis). Results showed that in 80% of the cases, flow presented a chaotic dynamic, in that, flow experiences delineated a complex dynamic whose patterns of change were not easy to predict. Implications of the study, its limitations and future research are discussed.

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BACKGROUND: Intraabdominal adipose tissue (IAAT) is the body fat depot most strongly related to disease risk. Weight reduction is advocated for overweight people to reduce total body fat and IAAT, although little is known about the effect of weight loss on abdominal fat distribution in different races. OBJECTIVE: We compared the effects of diet-induced weight loss on changes in abdominal fat distribution in white and black women. DESIGN: We studied 23 white and 23 black women, similar in age and body composition, in the overweight state [mean body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)): 28.8] and the normal-weight state (mean BMI: 24.0) and 38 never-overweight control women (mean BMI: 23.4). We measured total body fat by using a 4-compartment model, trunk fat by using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and cross-sectional areas of IAAT (at the fourth and fifth lumbar vertebrae) and subcutaneous abdominal adipose tissue (SAAT) by using computed tomography. RESULTS: Weight loss was similar in white and black women (13.1 and 12.6 kg, respectively), as were losses of total fat, trunk fat, and waist circumference. However, white women lost more IAAT (P < 0.001) and less SAAT (P < 0.03) than did black women. Fat patterns regressed toward those of their respective control groups. Changes in waist circumference correlated with changes in IAAT in white women (r = 0.54, P < 0.05) but not in black women (r = 0.19, NS). CONCLUSIONS: Despite comparable decreases in total and trunk fat, white women lost more IAAT and less SAAT than did black women. Waist circumference was not a suitable surrogate marker for tracking changes in the visceral fat compartment in black women.

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Aquest treball es portarà a terme realitzant una avaluació heurística dels sistmes operatius seleccionats i de les seves aplicacions, un test d'usabilitat i un anàlisi de l'organització de les funcions mitjançant un card sorting on-line.

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The asphalt concrete (AC) dynamic modulus (|E*|) is a key design parameter in mechanistic-based pavement design methodologies such as the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) MEPDG/Pavement-ME Design. The objective of this feasibility study was to develop frameworks for predicting the AC |E*| master curve from falling weight deflectometer (FWD) deflection-time history data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT). A neural networks (NN) methodology was developed based on a synthetically generated viscoelastic forward solutions database to predict AC relaxation modulus (E(t)) master curve coefficients from FWD deflection-time history data. According to the theory of viscoelasticity, if AC relaxation modulus, E(t), is known, |E*| can be calculated (and vice versa) through numerical inter-conversion procedures. Several case studies focusing on full-depth AC pavements were conducted to isolate potential backcalculation issues that are only related to the modulus master curve of the AC layer. For the proof-of-concept demonstration, a comprehensive full-depth AC analysis was carried out through 10,000 batch simulations using a viscoelastic forward analysis program. Anomalies were detected in the comprehensive raw synthetic database and were eliminated through imposition of certain constraints involving the sigmoid master curve coefficients. The surrogate forward modeling results showed that NNs are able to predict deflection-time histories from E(t) master curve coefficients and other layer properties very well. The NN inverse modeling results demonstrated the potential of NNs to backcalculate the E(t) master curve coefficients from single-drop FWD deflection-time history data, although the current prediction accuracies are not sufficient to recommend these models for practical implementation. Considering the complex nature of the problem investigated with many uncertainties involved, including the possible presence of dynamics during FWD testing (related to the presence and depth of stiff layer, inertial and wave propagation effects, etc.), the limitations of current FWD technology (integration errors, truncation issues, etc.), and the need for a rapid and simplified approach for routine implementation, future research recommendations have been provided making a strong case for an expanded research study.

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Résumé Le staphylocoque doré est un pathogène responsable d'une grande variété de maladies chez l'être humain. Il est extrêmement bien équipé de facteurs de virulence, dont les adhésines. Jusqu'à présent, 21 protéines liant des composants de tissus de l'hôte ("microbial surface components reacting with adherence matrix molecules, MSCRAMM") ont été identifiées, par exemple le "clumping factor" A (CIfA) ou la "fibronectin-binding protein" A (FnBPA). Néanmoins, pour la plupart de ces protéines, leur rôle dans la pathogénie des infections à staphylocoque doré reste à être élucidé. Le but de cette thèse est de contribuer à ce processus. Premièrement, les "MSCRAMM" CIfA, CIfB, FnBPA, FnBPB, Cna, SpA, Pls, SdrC, SdrD, SdrE, SasD, SasE, SasF, SasG, Sasl, SasJ et SasK ont été exprimés dans une bactérie substitut, Lactococcus lactis, et testés pour leurs propriétés adhésives et leur pathogénicité dans un modèle d'endocardite expérimentale (voir chapitre 1). Cette technique a préalablement été utilisée avec succès et a l'avantage d'éviter le contexte complexe des redondances et systèmes de régulations propres au staphylocoque doré. Les résultats montrent que, de tous les facteurs de virulence testés, seuls CIfA et FnBPA sont d'importance primordiale dans le développement d'endocardite expérimentale. En ce qui concerne l'internalisation dans les cellules endothéliales, seulement FnPBA et FnBPB en sont capables. En outre, l'adhérence à chacun des ligands testés (fibrinogène, fibronectine, kératine, élastine, collagène, et les caillots de fibrine et plaquettes) est très spécifique et est médiée par une ou plusieures adhésines provenant du staphylocoque doré. Par conséquence, ces protéines pourraient représenter des cibles potentielles pour de futures thérapies anti-adhésives contre le staphylocoque doré. Deuxièmement, l'expression des facteurs de virulence décrits dans le chapitre 1 par les souches recombinantes de lactocoques a été vérifiée par une nouvelle méthode utilisant la spectrométrie de masse (voir chapitre 2). L'expression de toutes ces protéines par les souches recombinantes a pu être confirmée. Cette méthode pourrait être de grande valeur dans la vérification de la présence de protéines quelconques dans toutes sortes d'applications. Troisièmement, deux facteurs de virulence du staphylocoque, CIfA et une forme tronquée de FnBPA, ont été exprimés de façon simultanée dans une souche recombinante de lactocoque (voir chapitre 3}. Contrairement à une souche exprimant la FnBPA entière, une souche exprimant la forme tronquée de FnPBA, qui ne contient plus le domaine capable de lier le fibrinogène, perd complètement sa capacité d'infecter dans le modèle d'endocardite expérimentale. Par contre, il est montré que, en cas de complémentation de la forme tronquée de FnPBA avec le domaine de liaison au fibrinogène de CIfA dans la souche double recombinante, le phénotype intégral de FnBPA est récupéré. En conséquence, les facteurs de virulence sont capables de coopérer dans le but de la pathogénie des infections à staphylocoque doré. Summary Staphylococcus aureus is a human pathogen causing a wide variety of disease. It is extremely well equipped with both secreted and surface-attached virulence factors, which can act as adhesins to host tissues. In total, twenty-one microbial surface components reacting with adherence matrix molecules (MSCRAMMs) have been identified, so far. These include well-characterized adhesins such as clumping factor A (CIfA) or fibronectin-binding protein A (FnBPA). However, for most of them their potential role in the pathogenesis of staphylococcal infections remains to be elucidated. This has been attempted in this thesis work. Firstly, the staphylococcal MSCRAMMs CIfA, CIfB, FnBPA, FnBPB, Cna, SpA, Pls, SdrC, SdrD, SdrE, SasD, SasE, SasF, SasG, Sasl, SasJ, and SasK have been expressed in a surrogate bacterium, Lactococcus lactis, and tested for their in vitro adherence properties and their pathogenicity in the rat model of experimental endocarditis (see chapter 1). This model has successfully been used previously, and has the advantage of bypassing the complex S. aureus background of redundancies and differential regulation. Here, it is shown that of the seventeen tested potential virulence factors, only CIfA and FnBPA are critical for the pathogenesis of experimental endocarditis in rats, while internalization into bovine endothelial cells is mediated exclusively by FnBPA and FnBPB. In addition, the adherence to specific host ligands (fibrinogen, fibronectin, keratin, elastin, collagen, and fibrin-platelet clots) is highly specific and mediated by one or few staphylococcal adhesins, respectively. Thus, these surface proteins may represent potential targets for an anti-adhesive strategy against S. aureus infections. Secondly, the expression of the staphylococcal proteins by L. lactis recombinants described in chapter 1 was tested by a novel method using mass spectrometry (see chapter 2). The expression of all the staphylococcal proteins by the respective recombinant lactococcal strain could be confirmed. This method may prove to be of great value in the confirmation of the presence of any given protein in various experimental settings. Thirdly, two staphylococcal virulence factors, CIfA and a truncated form of FnBPA, were expressed simultaneously in one recombinant lactococcal strain (see chapter 3). In contrast to a recombinant strain expressing full-length FnPBA, a recombinant strain expressing a truncated FnPBA, lacking the domain capable of binding fibrinogen, completely lost infectivity in experimental endocarditis. However, it is shown that the complementation of the truncated form of FnBPA with the fibrinogenbinding domain of CIfA in a double recombinant strain results in the recovery of the complete phenotype of full-length FnBPA. Thus, virulence factors can cooperate in the pathogenesis of staphylococcal infections.

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Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a method to measure perfusion using magnetically labeled blood water as an endogenous tracer. Being fully non-invasive, this technique is attractive for longitudinal studies of cerebral blood flow in healthy and diseased individuals, or as a surrogate marker of metabolism. So far, ASL has been restricted mostly to specialist centers due to a generally low SNR of the method and potential issues with user-dependent analysis needed to obtain quantitative measurement of cerebral blood flow (CBF). Here, we evaluated a particular implementation of ASL (called Quantitative STAR labeling of Arterial Regions or QUASAR), a method providing user independent quantification of CBF in a large test-retest study across sites from around the world, dubbed "The QUASAR reproducibility study". Altogether, 28 sites located in Asia, Europe and North America participated and a total of 284 healthy volunteers were scanned. Minimal operator dependence was assured by using an automatic planning tool and its accuracy and potential usefulness in multi-center trials was evaluated as well. Accurate repositioning between sessions was achieved with the automatic planning tool showing mean displacements of 1.87+/-0.95 mm and rotations of 1.56+/-0.66 degrees . Mean gray matter CBF was 47.4+/-7.5 [ml/100 g/min] with a between-subject standard variation SD(b)=5.5 [ml/100 g/min] and a within-subject standard deviation SD(w)=4.7 [ml/100 g/min]. The corresponding repeatability was 13.0 [ml/100 g/min] and was found to be within the range of previous studies.

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Critical reading and careful interpretation of results of the medical literature is a difficult task for primary care physicians. Being aware of common potential pitfalls that may bias results of a study is helpful. Among common pitfalls, odds ratios are often interpreted as relative risks, which overestimate the impact of a risk factor. Randomized controlled trials assessing the effectiveness of a new drug or a new target disease often use surrogate markers instead of clinical events as outcomes. Results of these trials should be considered with caution before using their results for clinical practice. For screening, observational studies often yield potentially biased or conflicting results. As clinical guidelines and expert opinions are often conflicting, primary care physicians should wait for results of large clinical trials in clinical events before changing their practice for screening or new drugs.

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We find that the vast majority of students taking an advanced undergraduate finance course show a preference for luck in a classroom experiment. In Phase I of the experiment part of the students, group A, were asked to guess a coin toss five times in a row. In Phase II the rest of the students, group B, were given 10 EUR to bet on some of the Group A students taking a second go at guessing a sequence of five coin tosses (Phase III). Group B students’ bets were by default allocated to the worse performing student in Phase I. Switching to better performing Group A students was costly. A total of 23 out of 28 students were willing to pay for switching and thus showed a preference for luck.

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In the cerebrospinal fluid of 26 drug-naive schizophrenics (DSM-III- R), we observed that the level of glutathione ([GSH]) and of its metabolite γ-Glu-Gln was decreased by 27% and 16% respectively. Using a new in-vivo method based on magnetic resonance spec- troscopy, [GSH] was measured in the medial prefrontal cortex of 18 schizophrenics and found to be 52 % lower than in controls (n = 20). This is consistent with the recently observed decreased mRNA levels in fibroblasts of patients (n=32) of the two GSH synthesizing en- zymes (glutathione synthetase (GSS), and glutamate-cysteine ligase M (GCLM) the modulatory subunit of glutamate-cysteine ligase). Moreover, the level of GCLM expression in fibroblasts correlates neg- atively with the psychopathology (positive, general and some nega- tive symptoms). Thus, the observed difference in gene expression is not only the cause of low brain [GSH], but is also related to the sever- ity of symptoms, suggesting that fibroblasts are adequate surrogate for brain tissue. A hypothesis was proposed, based on a central role of GSH in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. GSH is an important endogenous redox regulator and neuroactive substance. GSH is pro- tecting cells from damage by reactive oxygen species generated, among others, by the metabolism of dopamine. A GSH deficit-in- duced oxidative stress would lead to lipid peroxidation and micro-le- sions in the surrounding of catecholamine terminals, affecting the synaptic contacts on dendritic spines of cortical neurones, where ex- citatory glutamatergic terminals converge with dopaminergic ones. This would lead to spines degeneration and abnormal nervous con- nections or structural disconnectivity, possibly responsible for posi- tive, perceptive and cognitive symptoms of schizophrenia. In addi- tion, a GSH deficit could also lead to a functional disconnectivity by depressing NMDA neurotransmission, in analogy to phencyclidine effects. Present experimental biochemical, cell biological and behav- ioral data are consistent with the proposed mechanism: decreasing pharmacologically [GSH] in experimental models, with or without blocking DA uptake (GBR12909), induces morphological and behav- ioral changes similar to those observed in patients. Dendritic spines: (a) In neuronal cultures, low [GSH] and DA induce decreased density of neural processes; (b) In developing rats (p5-p16), [GSH] deficit and GBR induce a decrease in normal spines in prefrontal pyramids and in GABA-parvalbumine but not of -calretinine immunoreactivity in anterior cingulate. NMDA-dependant synaptic plasticity: GSH deple- I/13 tion in hippocampal slices impairs long-term potentiation. Develop- ing rats with low [GSH] and GBR have deficit in olfactory integration and in object recognition which appears earlier in males than fe- males, in analogy to the delay of the psychosis onset between man and woman. In summary, a deficit of GSH and/or GSH-related enzymes during early development could constitute a major vulnerability fac- tor in schizophrenia.

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Background Although we know that exacerbations are key events in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), our understanding of their frequency, determinants, and effects is incomplete. In a large observational cohort, we tested the hypothesis that there is a frequent-exacerbation phenotype of COPD that is independent of disease severity. Methods We analyzed the frequency and associations of exacerbation in 2138 patients enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End points (ECLIPSE) study. Exacerbations were defined as events that led a care provider to prescribe antibiotics or corticosteroids (or both)or that led to hospitalization (severe exacerbations). Exacerbation frequency was observed over a period of 3 years. Results Exacerbations became more frequent (and more severe) as the severity of COPD increased; exacerbation rates in the first year of follow-up were 0.85 per person for patients with stage 2 COPD (with stage defined in accordance with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stages), 1.34 for patients with stage 3, and 2.00 for patients with stage 4. Overall, 22% of patients with stage 2 disease, 33% with stage 3, and 47% with stage 4 had frequent exacerbations (two or more in the first year of follow-up). The single best predictor of exacerbations, across all GOLD stages, was a history of exacerbations. The frequent-exacerbation phenotype appeared to be relatively stable over a period of 3 years and could be predicted on the basis of the patient"s recall of previous treated events. In addition to its association with more severe disease and prior exacerbations, the phenotype was independently associated with a history of gastroesophageal reflux or heartburn, poorer quality of life, and elevated white-cell count. Conclusions Although exacerbations become more frequent and more severe as COPD progresses, the rate at which they occur appears to reflect an independent susceptibility phenotype. This has implications for the targeting of exacerbation-prevention strategies across the spectrum of disease severity. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials .gov number, NCT00292552.)

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BACKGROUND: A new diagnostic system, called one-step nucleic acid amplification (OSNA), has recently been designed to detect cytokeratin 19 mRNA as a surrogate for lymph node metastases. The objective of this prospective investigation was to compare the performance of OSNA with both standard hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) analysis and intensive histopathology in the detection of colon cancer lymph node metastases. METHODS: In total, 313 lymph nodes from 22 consecutive patients with stage I, II, and III colon cancer were assessed. Half of each lymph node was analyzed initially by H&E followed by an intensive histologic workup (5 levels of H&E and immunohistochemistry analyses, the gold standard for the assessment of sensitivity/specificity of OSNA), and the other half was analyzed using OSNA. RESULTS: OSNA was more sensitive in detecting small lymph node tumor infiltrates compared with H&E (11 results were OSNA positive/H&E negative). Compared with intensive histopathology, OSNA had 94.5% sensitivity, 97.6% specificity, and a concordance rate of 97.1%. OSNA resulted in an upstaging of 2 of 13 patients (15.3%) with lymph node-negative colon cancer after standard H&E examination. CONCLUSIONS: OSNA appeared to be a powerful and promising molecular tool for the detection of lymph node metastases in patients with colon cancer. OSNA had similar performance in the detection of lymph node metastases compared with intensive histopathologic investigations and appeared to be superior to standard histology with H&E. Most important, the authors concluded that OSNA may lead to a potential upstaging of >15% of patients with colon cancer.

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We carried out a systematic review of HPV vaccine pre- and post-licensure trials to assess the evidence of their effectiveness and safety. We find that HPV vaccine clinical trials design, and data interpretation of both efficacy and safety outcomes, were largely inadequate. Additionally, we note evidence of selective reporting of results from clinical trials (i.e., exclusion of vaccine efficacy figures related to study subgroups in which efficacy might be lower or even negative from peer-reviewed publications). Given this, the widespread optimism regarding HPV vaccines long-term benefits appears to rest on a number of unproven assumptions (or such which are at odd with factual evidence) and significant misinterpretation of available data. For example, the claim that HPV vaccination will result in approximately 70% reduction of cervical cancers is made despite the fact that the clinical trials data have not demonstrated to date that the vaccines have actually prevented a single case of cervical cancer (let alone cervical cancer death), nor that the current overly optimistic surrogate marker-based extrapolations are justified. Likewise, the notion that HPV vaccines have an impressive safety profile is only supported by highly flawed design of safety trials and is contrary to accumulating evidence from vaccine safety surveillance databases and case reports which continue to link HPV vaccination to serious adverse outcomes (including death and permanent disabilities). We thus conclude that further reduction of cervical cancers might be best achieved by optimizing cervical screening (which carries no such risks) and targeting other factors of the disease rather than by the reliance on vaccines with questionable efficacy and safety profiles.

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Among the metastasis patterns of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), intracranial spread is a rare but dreaded event. To date only very few cases have been reported and clinical and molecular data are sparse. We screened our archives for HNSCC patients from 1992 to 2005 who were diagnosed with brain metastases (BM). For retrospective analysis, all clinico-pathological data including disease-free survival (DFS), local progression-free survival (LPFS), and overall survival (OS) were compiled. Additionally, we assessed the mutational status of the TP53 gene and the prevalence of HPV serotypes by PCR and Sanger sequencing. Immunohistochemistry was applied to detect p16INK4A expression levels as surrogate marker for HPV infection. The prevalence rate of BM in our cohort comprising 193 patients with advanced HNSCC was 5.7 %. Of 11 patients with BM, 3 were female and 9 were male. Seven of the primary tumors were of oropharyngeal origin (OPSCC). LPFS of the cohort was 11.8 months, DFS was 12.1 months and OS was 36.0 months. After the diagnosis of BM, survival was 10.5 months. Five tumors showed a mutation in the TP53 gene, while five of the seven OPSCC tumors had a positive HPV status displaying infection with serotype 16 in all cases. Compared with patients who harbored TP53wt/HPV-positive tumors, patients with TP53 mutations showed a poor prognosis. Compared with the whole cohort, the interval between diagnosis of the primary and the detection of BM was prolonged in the HPV-infected OPSCC subgroup (26.4 vs. 45.6 months). The prognosis of HNSCC patients with BM is poor. In our cohort, most tumors were OPSCC with the majority being HPV positive. Our study points toward a putatively unusual metastatic behavior of HPV-positive OPSCC.

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In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

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Introduction: Approximately one fifth of stage I and II colon cancer patients will suffer from recurrent disease. This is partly due to the presence of small nodal tumour infiltrates, which are undetected by standard histopathology using Haematoxylin & Eosin (H&E) staining on one slice and thus may not receive beneficial adjuvant therapy. A new diagnostic, semi-automatic system, called one-step nucleic acid amplification (OSNA), was recently designed for the detection of cytokeratin 19 (CK19) mRNA as a surrogate for lymph node metastases. The objective of the present investigation was to compare the performance of OSNA with both standard H&E as well as intensive histopathologic analyses in the detection of colon cancer lymph node micro- and macro-metastases.Methods: In this prospective study 313 lymph nodes from 22 consecutive stage I - III colon cancer patients were assessed. Half of each lymph node was analysed initially based on one slice of H&E followed by an intensive histologic work-up (5 levels of H&E and immuno-histochemistry staining for each slice), the other half was analysed using OSNA.Results: All OSNA results were available after less than 40 minutes. Fifty-one lymph nodes were positive and 246 lymph nodes negative with both OSNA and standard H&E. OSNA was more sensitive to detect small nodal tumor infiltrates compared to H&E (11 OSNA pos. /H&E neg.). Compared to intensive histopathologic analyses, OSNA had a sensitivity of 94.5% and a specificity of 97.6% to detect lymph node micro- and macro-metastases with a concordance rate of 97.1%. An upstaging due to OSNA was found in 2/13 (15.3%) initially node negative colon cancer patients.Conclusion: OSNA appears to be a powerful and promising molecular tool for the detection of lymph node macro- and micro-metastases in colon cancer patients. OSNA has a similar performance in the detection of micro- and macro-metastases compared to intensive histopathologic investigations and appears to be superior to standard histology with H&E. Since the use of OSNA allows the analysis of the whole lymph node, the problem of sampling bias and undetected tumor deposits due to uninvestigated material will be overcome in the future and OSNA may thus improve staging in colon cancer patients. It is hoped that this improved staging will lead to better patient selection for adjuvant therapy and consecutively improved local and distant control as well as better overall survival.