Lessons from the Great War: Failure of leadership. CEPS Commentary, 1 July 2014

In his reflections on the intervening century since the start of the First World War, Erwan Fouéré acknowledges that the EU has brought enormous benefits to its citizens by extending the frontiers of peace and security to include 28 member countries. At the same time, however, he warns that the voices of populism are trying to destroy its very foundations and calls upon the European Union to work much harder at showing that the integration project is both vital and necessary for continued peace and prosperity in Europe.

Does ASEM work? CEPS Policy Brief No. 321, 14 October 2014

This CEPS Policy Brief is based on a larger study for the EEAS and European Commission, written by the same authors in the run-up of the Milan ASEM summit of 16-17 October 2014. The main idea of the study is to assess whether ASEM works and how, by verifying the factual evidence in detail. After all, ASEM has no institutions, no budget and no treaty, whilst dialogues and a loose improvement over time in Asia-Europe relations refer to process much more than genuine ‘results’. The stocktaking covers all ASEM activities since the 2006 Helsinki summit. Summit and foreign ministers’ declarations and ASEM calendar of activities (and interviews) are used to trace ASEM activities in the three ASEM pillars (political, economic, and peoples-to-peoples/cultural). All the ‘regular’ ASEM meetings at ministerial and other levels (many of which are only known to relatively few) have been mapped. Also the ASEM working methods, based on the 2000 AECF framework and many subsequent initiatives, have been scrutinised, including whether they are actually implemented or not or partially. Such methods refer to how to work together in areas of cooperation (beyond the typical ASEM dialogue), organisation, coordination and ASEM visibility. The main conclusion is that ASEM works reasonably well, once one accepts the ASEM of today, although some inefficiencies still characterise the ‘system’. There is a host of secondary conclusions on the three pillars, the foreign ministers, the strong government-to-government nature of ASEM and the working methods. We recommend that today’s ASEM needs no reform and that not having ASEM would entail political and diplomatic costs. We emphasise that ASEM is well placed to stimulate exchange of information between the mega-FTAs such as TPP, RCEP and TTIP. However, the ASEM of tomorrow might be different, given the great changes in geo-political and economic conditions since ASEM began in the mid-1990s. Moreover, the size of ASEM has become such that classical ways of operating with (after Milano) 53 countries (including the EU and ASEAN) cannot possibly be effective all the time. We suggest that, in the run-up to the 20th ASEM birthday (2016), EU and Asian independent think-tanks get together to write an ‘options report’ reconsidering options for a new ASEM, as the basis for a profound and wide debate how to get more value-added out of ASEM.

Complex Congenital Heart Disease: The Influence of Prenatal Diagnosis

INTRODUCTION: Complex congenital heart disease is a group of severe conditions. Prenatal diagnosis has implications on morbidity and mortality for most severe conditions. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the influence of prenatal diagnosis and distance of residence and birth place to a reference center, on immediate morbidity and early mortality of complex congenital heart disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective study of complex congenital heart disease patients of our Hospital, born between 2007 and 2012. RESULTS: There were 126 patients born with complex congenital heart disease. In 95%, pregnancy was followed since the first trimester, with prenatal diagnosis in 42%. There was a statistically significant relation between birth place and prenatal diagnosis. Transposition of great arteries was the most frequent complex congenital heart disease (45.2%), followed by pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect (17.5%) and hypoplastic left ventricle (9.5%). Eighty-two patients (65.1%) had prostaglandin infusion and 38 (30.2%)were ventilated before an intervention. Surgery took place in the neonatal period in 73%. Actuarial survival rate at 30 days, 12 and 24 months was 85%, 80% and 75%, respectively. There was no statistically significant relation between prenatal diagnosis and mortality. DISCUSSION: Most patients with complex congenital heart disease did not have prenatal diagnosis. All cases with prenatal diagnosis were born in a tertiary center. Prenatal diagnosis did not influence significantly neonatal mortality, as already described in other studies with heterogeneous complex heart disease. CONCLUSION: prenatal diagnosis of complex congenital heart disease allowed an adequate referral. Most patients with complex congenital heart disease were not diagnosed prenatally. This data should be considered when planning prenatal diagnosis of congenital heart disease.

Making it work: Identifying the challenges of collaborative international research

In this article, we explore the challenges - and benefits - of conducting collaborative research on an international scale. The authors - from Australia, Canada, and New Zealand - draw upon their experiences in designing and conducting a three-country study. The growing pressures on scholars to work in collaborative research teams are described, and key findings and reflections are presented. It is claimed that such work is a highly complex and demanding extension to the academic's role. The authors conclude that, despite the somewhat negative sense that this reflection may convey, the synergies gained and the valuable comparative learning that took place make overcoming these challenges a worthwhile process. The experiences as outlined in this paper suggest that developing understandings of the challenges inherent in undertaking international collaborative research might well be a required component of the professional development opportunities afforded to new scholars.

O MERCADO DE TRABALHO PARA O PROFISSIONAL DA HOTELARIA NAS CIDADES DE GUARULHOS E SÃO BERNARDO DO CAMPO

O objetivo desse estudo é descobrir se as cidades de Guarulhos e São Bernardo do Campo têm chances de, ao explorar sua vocação turística para os negócios, obter reais possibilidades de ampliar seu mercado de trabalho na área de hotelaria. Para realizar o que se propôs, utilizou-se dos dados primários advindos das entrevistas pessoais com alguns profissionais ligados ao setor; além dos dados secundários e informações coletadas nos próprios sites das prefeituras, sindicatos, meios de hospedagem e outras associações que integrados à pesquisa bibliográfica verificou-se que as duas cidades possuem potencial turístico para os negócios porque contam com parques industriais que possibilitam a entrada e permanência de pessoas que vem às cidades para realizar diversos tipos de negócios. Para tanto, precisam hospedar-se, geralmente, por um espaço de tempo em que pretendem descansar, alimentar-se, banhar-se como se estivessem em suas casas. Além desse potencial, as cidades apresentam mais algumas características em comum como a localização de aeroportos, Cumbica e Congonhas, bem próximos de seus centros e, ainda, servem de passagem para outras cidades consideradas mais acolhedoras como Santos, Guarujá entre outras localizadas no litoral e São Paulo, na região conhecida como a grande São Paulo. Por isso Guarulhos e São Bernardo acabam sendo pouco aproveitadas no que se refere aos seus potenciais turísticos. A pesquisa aponta que se houver investimentos nesse setor, o turismo poderá crescer tornando-as cidades receptivas àqueles que as visitam por motivo de trabalho e que precisam de uma boa hospedagem e, muitas vezes, de um lugar para utilizar como seu próprio escritório. Com isso, aumenta-se a necessidade de profissionais qualificados para atender às expectativas desses turistas. Conseqüentemente amplia-se o mercado de trabalho nas áreas voltadas ao turismo e hotelaria das cidades. Entre elas, destacam-se Transportes, Comércio, Segurança, Gastronomia, Cultura, Esportes e Lazer, Redes Hoteleiras e até mesmo Escolas Técnicas e Faculdades. Identificou-se que as duas cidades estudadas possuem potencial turístico para os negócios e podem ampliar o mercado de trabalho hoteleiro a partir da conscientização das partes interessadas em investirem na infra-estrutura, na capacitação dos Recursos Humanos, na estrutura dos empreendimentos hoteleiros e na divulgação do local, dos produtos e dos serviços oferecidos.(AU)

EVOCAÇÃO POÉTICA : O velar e o desvelar da obra pictórica Menino morto de Cândido Portinari à luz das concepções de Paul Tillich e de Martin Heidegger sobre as artes

A arte sempre esteve presente entre os humanos como um grande mistério. Sua característica polissêmica nos desafia a pensá-la como algo sempre aberto. Isto é, livre para que os indivíduos a experimentem de formas diversas. Nossa intenção, ao escolher a tela Menino morto do pintor Cândido Portinari, é mostrar que o encontro com uma obra de arte é forçosamente atual, vivo, surpreendente, extraordinário... Não apenas como um mero objeto de prazer, mas, sobretudo, como possibilidades de desvelar experiências originárias, abrindo gamas de sentidos que ajudam os seres humanos a significar a própria existência. Para seguir na investigação, privilegiam-se, nesta dissertação, os estudos sobre as artes do teólogo Paul Tillich e do filósofo Martin Heidegger. Para Tillich, numa obra de arte deve-se buscar o que se esconde no inaparente, pois é aí que reside a sua substância. Assim, na arte, como em qualquer manifestação cultural, por mais secular que aparente ser, se expressa sempre uma preocupação última. Para Heidegger, a arte é fonte de revelação da verdade. Todavia, essa revelação traz em si o ocultamento da mesma verdade, posto que a verdade e a não-verdade acontecem simultaneamente na obra de arte. Portanto, à luz dos estudos feitos por esses dois autores, tentamos captar o desnudar de Menino morto .(AU)

Risk assessment applied to comsumer products with reference to CE marking machines for use at work

New Approach’ Directives now govern the health and safety of most products whether destined for workplace or domestic use. These Directives have been enacted into UK law by various specific legislation principally relating to work equipment, machinery and consumer products. This research investigates whether the risk assessment approach used to ensure the safety of machinery may be applied to consumer products. Crucially, consumer products are subject to the Consumer Protection Act (CPA) 1987, where there is no direct reference to “assessing risk”. This contrasts with the law governing the safety of products used in the workplace, where risk assessment underpins the approach. New Approach Directives are supported by European harmonised standards, and in the case of machinery, further supported by the risk assessment standard, EN 1050. The system regulating consumer product safety is discussed, its key elements identified and a graphical model produced. This model incorporates such matters as conformity assessment, the system of regulation, near miss and accident reporting. A key finding of the research is that New Approach Directives have a common feature of specifying essential performance requirements that provide a hazard prompt-list that can form the basis for a risk assessment (the hazard identification stage). Drawing upon 272 prosecution cases, and with thirty examples examined in detail, this research provides evidence that despite the high degree of regulation, unsafe consumer products still find their way onto the market. The research presents a number of risk assessment tools to help Trading Standards Officers (TSOs) prioritise their work at the initial inspection stage when dealing with subsequent enforcement action.

The role of the English language in the context of national development vision 2025 with specific reference to agriculture in Tanzania

After thirty years of vacillation, the Tanzanian government has made a firm decision to Swahilize its secondary education system. It has also embarked on an ambitious economic and social development programme (Vision 2025) to transform its peasant society into a modern agricultural community. However, there is a faction in Tanzania opposed to Kiswahili as the medium of education. Already many members of the middle and upper class their children to English medium primary schools to avoid the Kiswahili medium public schools and to prepare their children for the English medium secondary system presently in place. Within the education system, particularly at university level, there is a desire to maintain English as the medium of education. English is seen to provide access to the international scientific community, to cutting edge technology and to the global economy. My interest in this conflict of interests stems from several years' experience teaching English to students at Sokoine University of Agriculture. Students specialise in agriculture and are expected to work with the peasant population on graduation. The students experience difficulties studying in English and then find their Kiswahili skills insufficient to explain to farmers the new techniques and technologies that they have studied in English. They are hampered by a complex triglossic situation in which they use their mother tongue with family and friends, Kiswahili, the national language for early education and most public communication within Tanzania, and English for advanced studies. My aim in this thesis was - to study the language policy in Tanzania and see how it is understood and implemented; - to examine the attitudes towards the various languages and their various roles; - to investigate actual language behaviour in Tanzanian higher education. My conclusion is that the dysfunctionality of the present study has to be addressed. Diglossic public life in Tanzania has to be accommodated. The only solution appears to be a compromise, namely a bilingual education system which supports from all cases of society by using Kiswahili, together with an early introduction of English and its promotion as a privileged foreign language, so that Tanzania can continue to develop internally through Kiswahili and at the same time retain access to the globalising world through the medium of English.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Pleasure, pain and procrastination:reflections on the experience of doing memory-work research

The focus of this article is the process of doing memory-work research. We tell the story of our experience of what it was like to use this approach. We were enthused to work collectively on a "discovery" project to explore a method with which we were unfamiliar. We hoped to build working relationships based on mutual respect and the desire to focus on methodology and its place in our psychological understanding. The empirical activities highlighted methodological and experiential challenges, which tested our adherence to the social constructionist premise of Haug's original description of memory work. Combined with practical difficulties of living across Europe, writing and analyzing the memories became contentious. We found ourselves having to address a number of tensions emanating from the work and our approach to it. We discuss some of these tensions alongside examples that illustrate the research process and the ways we negotiated the collective nature of the memory-work approach. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Editorial:welcome to the LRN2004 annual conference special issue of the International journal of logistics: research and applications

It is a great pleasure to be Guest Editor for this issue – I hope that the papers which are included will be stimulating and support you in your ongoing research activities. A number of guiding principles were adopted in selecting the papers for inclusion in this issue. Firstly, the papers cover a wide range of logistics and supply chain management (SCM) topics. This is a reflection of the evolution of the field in recent years. In terms of the “buy-make-store-move-sell” model of SCM all the main constituent areas are addressed. Secondly, it is important that the conference issue of this Journal reflects the emphasis and content of the conference itself. I have tried to achieve this in terms of the papers included. One interesting point to note is that outsourcing is a theme which is a major issue in a number of papers. This reflects the increasing importance of this issue to organisations of all kinds and sizes. Economic globalisation and the trend towards vertical disintegration of supply chain architectures have sharpened the focus on outsourcing as a key element of supply chain strategy. The need to move beyond the notion that sourcing of certain activities can be some kind of panacea in evident from the relevant contributions. Thirdly, the LRN Annual Conference has become a more international event in recent years...the number of delegates and papers presented from outside the UK has continued to grow. The papers collected in this issue reflect this internationalization. Two papers are worthy of particular comment from an LRN perspective. The contribution by Jaafar and Rafiq has been developed from the submission which won the best paper prize at the LRN 2004 event. The paper by Pettit and Beresford is based on research which was supported by LRN seed corn funding. It was developed form the final report on this work submitted to CITL (UK) via the LRN. The seed corn funding is an important mechanism whereby the LRN supports research in innovative aspects of logistics in UK universities. In many ways, the LRN2004 event in Dublin seems like a long time ago. From my point of view it was one of the most professionally rewarding activities in which I have been involved in my career. It was a time to meet old friends and new and to keep abreast of the multitude of interesting projects being undertaken in over 20 countries. There are too many people to thank for the smooth running of the event. However, my colleague John Mee does warrant a special mention. His logistical skills were seriously put to the test in the weeks and months leading up to September 9th. 2004. I want to acknowledge his particular contribution to the success of the event. Since then we have had the 2005 event at the University of Plymouth. This was again a great opportunity to network with colleagues and many congratulations are due to John Dinwoodie and his team. We now look forward to LRN 2006 in Newcastle...form my part I hope and trust that this issue provides some useful perspectives and insights into the range of topics addressed.

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

Making the construction industry resilient to extreme weather:lessons from construction in hot weather conditions

The construction industry is susceptible to extreme weather events (EWEs) due to most of its activities being conducted by manual workers outdoors. Although research has been conducted on the effects of EWEs, such as flooding and snowfall, limited research has been conducted on the effects of heatwaves and hot weather conditions. Heatwaves present a somewhat different risk profile to construction, unlike EWEs such as flooding and heavy snowfall that present physical obstacles to work onsite. However, heatwaves have affected the construction industry in the UK, and construction claims have been made due to adverse weather conditions. With heatwaves being expected to occur more frequently in the coming years, the construction industry may suffer unlike any other industry during the summer months. This creates the need to investigate methods that would allow construction activities to progress during hot summer months with minimal effect on construction projects. Hence, the purpose of this paper. Regions such as the Middle East and the UAE in particular flourish with mega projects, although temperatures soar to above 40̊C in the summer months. Lessons could be learnt from such countries and adapted in the UK. Interviews have been conducted with a lead representative of a client, a consultant and a contractor, all of which currently operate on UAE projects. The key findings include one of the preliminary steps taken by international construction companies operating in the UAE. This involves restructuring their entire regional team by employing management staff from countries such as Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and their labour force from the sub-continent such as India and Pakistan. This is not only due to the cheap wage rate but also to the ability to cope and work in such extreme hot weather conditions. The experience of individuals working in the region allows for future planning, where the difference in labour productivity during the extreme hot weather conditions is known, allowing precautionary measures to be put in place.

Digital Collections in Regional Public Library “P. R. Slaveikov” – Veliko Tarnovo in the Context of the National Program for Preservation and Promotion of Literary Heritage

Nowadays the great public libraries in Bulgaria are gaining the appearance of digital centers which provide new informational resources and services in the digital space. The digital conversion as a way of preservation is one of the important priorities of Regional Public Library in Veliko Tarnovo. In the last few years we persistently search for possible ways of financing by national and foreign programs in this direction. In the beginning the strategy was oriented to digitalization of the funds with most urgent conversion – these of the local studies periodicals from 1878 till 1944 year. The digitalization of funds will create conditions of laying the basement of full text database of Bulgarian periodical publications. The technology that is offered gives opportunities for including other libraries in the Unified index, which can develop it into a National Unified index of periodical publications. The integrated informational environment that is created is an attractive, comfortable and useful place for work in home or at work for researchers, historians, art experts, bibliographers. The library readers use very actively all informational services of the library internet page and work competently with the on-line indexes provided there, they find the necessary title, which can be demanded later for usage in home or in the library, using electronic means again.

A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach to Compare and Contrast the Websites of China-based and U.S-based Hotels

The improvement in living standards and the development of telecommunications have led to a large increase in the number of Internet users in China. It has been reported by China National Network Information Center that the number of Internet users in China has reached 33.7 million in 2001, ranting the country third in the world. This figure also shows that more and more Chinese residents have accepted the Internet and use it to obtain information and compete their travel planning. Milne and Ateljevic stated that the integration of computing and telecommunications would create a global information network based mostly on the Internet. The Internet, especially the World Wide Web, has had a great impact on the hospitality and tourism industry in recent years. The WWW plays an important role in mediating between customers and hotel companies as a place to acquire information acquisition and transact business.