Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

The reproductive capacity of Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) males treated with precocenes

Reproductive performance including mating, semen transfer, egg production and hatching rate were investigated in pairs of Panstrongylus megistus in wich the male was treated with either precocene II or ethoxyprecocene II, topically applied shortly after imaginal molt. Eighty percent of the males were not able to mate for a period as long as 40 days after treatment. Those males wich did mate (20%) produced small spermatophores; a few (10%) were unable to transfer spermatozoa to female, while the others (10%) exhibited reproductive performance similar to that of non-treated males. The cumulative effects of the precocene on the different stages of reproduction resulted in a drastic reduction of offspring production. The anti-allatal compound precocene seems to inhibit successful reproduction through a corpus allatum inactivation and subsequent lack of secretory activity of the male accessory glands.

Agency cost of government ownership: a study of voluntary audit comitte formation in China

In this paper, we investigate the agency costs of government ownership and their impact on corporate governance and firm value. China is used as a laboratory because of the prevalent state shareholdings in exchange-listed firms. In this context, we specifically consider the trade-offs involved in the voluntary formation of an audit committee when the controlling shareholder is the state. The decision to improve corporate governance (in this case, introduce an audit committee) is shown to be value relevant and a function of existing agency relationships and non-trivial implementation costs. Our findings are robust to the level of pyramid groups, the ownership-control wedge, and financial leverage. The research adds to the debate regarding the effect of government shareholdings on corporate culture and performance - a topic that hastaken on renewed importance in recent times.

Devolution dynamics of Spanish local government

Over the last few years, ther has been a devolutionary tendency in many developed and developing countries. In this article we propose a methodology to decompose whether the benefits in terms of effciency derived from transfers of powers from higher to municipal levels of government "the "economic dividend" of devolution) might increase over time. This methodology is based on linear programming approaches for effciency measurement. We provide anapplication to Spanish municipalities, which have had to adapt to both the European Stability and Growth Pact as well as to domestic regulation seeking local governments balanced budget. Results indicate that efficiency gains from enhaced decentralization have increased over time. However, the way through which these gains accrue differs across municipalities -in some cases technical change is the main component, whereas in others catching up dominates.

Evolution of endurance during a multidisciplinary treatment of chronic low back pain and its influence of work capacity

Introduction: Low back pain is a common disorder touching up to 80% of the population, with redundancies of up to 70%. A small proportion would go on to develop chronic low back pain (LBP) with reduced work capacity and they would count for the majority of the costs. Up to day, a multi-disciplinary treatment program is one of the best approaches. In the program one of the mile-stones is restoration of function. The aim of this study was to follow patients, according to the endurance change after the program and its influence on workability during one year after inclusion in a such program. Method: Patients were following a multidisciplinary treatment for 3 weeks including physiotherapy, occupation measures combined with an educational program with behavioural and psychological interventions on an outpatient program. We studied the endurance with the help of the Bruce test, accomplished at the beginning and at the end of the program. On the other hand the patients filled out pain questionnaires and PACT score according their own impression on workability. Results: There were a clear relation between the increase in the cardiovascular endurance and the increased workability. Almost every patient presented an increase in the VO2 max, even though the workability did not follow. This increase were associated with a decrease in pain apprehension. Conclusion: A multidisciplinary treatment program, teaching the patients how to care with their pain and to accept it even if it persist is successful in lowering the global pain. If the program allows the patients to strengthen the endurance, the workability will increase in parallel. In this way the patients were able to reduce the consummation of medicaments and to increase the work capacity.

Perspective for the reproduction of antimalarial drugs in Brazil

The appears to be no chemical manufacture of antimalarial drugs is Brazil. Technology at laboratory process level has been developed for chloroquine, mefloquine, pyrimethamine and cycloquanil, but not perfected nor scaled-up, largely for economic reasons and market uncertainty. Development of primaquine has been contracted but it will run into the same difficulty. Manufacturing capacity for sulfadoxine was registred in the SDI by Roche. A project to produce artemisinine and its derivates is under way at UNICAMP-CPQBA but is hampered by low content in the plant. Proguanil could be produced easily, but apparently no attempt has been made to do so. Quinine is imported on a large scale mostly for softdrink production. Since malarial treatment falls largely within responsability of the Government health authorities, manufacture of drugs in Brazil will depend on an assured medium-term purchase order made to a potential local manufacturer, since competition in the world market is scarcelyviable at the present moment.

The Role of supply constraints in multiplier analysis

Multiplier analysis based upon the information contained in Leontief's inverse is undoubtedly part of the core of the input-output methodology and numerous applications an extensions have been developed that exploit its informational content. Nonetheless there are some implicit theoretical assumptions whose implications have perhaps not been fully assessed. This is the case of the 'excess capacity' assumption. Because of this assumption resources are available as needed to adjust production to new equilibrium states. In real world applications, however, new resources are scarce and costly. Supply constraints kick in and hence resource allocation needs to take them into account to really assess the effect of government policies. Using a closed general equilibrium model that incorporates supply constraints, we perform some simple numerical exercises and proceed to derive a 'constrained' multiplier matrix that can be compared with the standard 'unrestricted' multiplier matrix. Results show that the effectiveness of expenditure policies hinges critically on whether or not supply constraints are considered.

Effects of gamma irradiation on the reproductive capacity and the longevity of Panstrongylus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

The effects of radiation on the reproductive capacity and the longevity of Panstrongylus magistus were studied. An indirect correlation between longevity and radiation doses was observed. Males were more affected than females. Longevity of females submitted to 10 Gy was not different when compared to controls. Some of the irradiated males copulated and in these cases semen was transferred to females, but only few eggs were laid. Fertility was seriously affected in all irradiated groups, decreasing with increasing intensity of dose. The dose of 80 Gy induced sterility in males and females. Gelatinous spermatophores that were expelled by females irradiated with 20 and 40 Gy, may be a consequence of irradiation that induced modification in the bursa copulatrix pH.

The Barcelona Forum: on decentralized governance and conflict prevention 6-8 july 2009

The Barcelona Forum aimed to generate both a theoretical and practical discussion on decentralized governance and its capacity to promote peace, prevent conflict, advance human security and ensure greater governmental accountability. The Forum intended to review the theoretical strength of decentralization as a political tool and discuss how it can be properly implemented. Eight case studies were selected to be covered during the two days in order to draw conclusions and offer proposals for the future implementation of decentralization. The case of Catalonia and the decentralized experience of Spain was given special attention, as an example of successful decentralization. The other cases presented achievements and challenges and prompted discussions on both the validity and universality of decentralization as a way to promote and preserve peace. Topics such as ethnic and territorial divisions, democratic accountability, financial decentralization and distribution, resource sharing, and external implementation of decentralization through peace processes were discussed.

Is it redistribution or centralization? On the determinants of government investment in infrastructure

The dilemma efficiency versus equity, together with political partisan interests, has received increasing attention to explain the territorial allocation of investments. However, centralization intended to introduce or reinforce hierarchization in the political system has not been object as of now of empirical analysis. Our main contribution to the literature is providing evidence that meta-political objectives related to the ordering of political power and administration influence regional investment. In this way, we find evidence that network mode’s (roads and railways) investment programs are influenced by the centralization strategy of investing near to the political capital, while investment effort in no-network modes (airports and ports) appears to be positively related to distance. Since investment in surface transportation infrastructures is much higher than that in airports and ports, and taken into account that regions surrounding the political capital are poorer than the average, we suggest that centralization rather than redistribution has been the driver for the concentration of public investment on these regions.

El foment de la creativitat i de l’esperit emprenedor en el context dels ECTS per a les assignatures de primer curs de la Diplomatura de Turisme de la UAB

El present Projecte de millora de la qualitat docent subvencionat pel Departament d’Universitats, Recerca i Societat de la Informació de la Generalitat de Catalunya dins del programa d’ajuts MQD-2006 convocades per l’AGAUR, s’ha desenvolupat amb els alumnes de primer de la Diplomatura de Turisme de l’Escola de Turisme i Direcció Hotelera (EUTDH) de la UAB durant el curs acadèmic 2006-2007, comptant amb la participació de l’equip docent així com amb la col·laboració i implicació directa de la direcció de l’escola. Aquest projecte parteix de la base que el desenvolupament de l’esperit emprenedor entre els estudiants és un pilar fonamental en la seva educació i preparació tant personal com professional per l’entrada amb èxit al mercat laboral. Així doncs, el fet que els estudiants mostrin més iniciativa individual així com més capacitat per buscar solucions als problemes d’una manera creativa i diferent, són aspectes bàsics d’aquest Projecte que preten, a llarg termini, repercutir en la societat, tot formant persones més emprenedores que aportin valor econòmic i social al sector turístic. Amb la finalitat d’assolir els objectius esmentats anteriorment es van realitzar una sèrie d’accions adreçades tant al professorat com a l’alumnat que portessin a canviar les actituds, comportaments i maneres de fer de la “metodologia docent tradicional”. En aquest sentit, s’han revisat les fitxes de les assignatures, tot adaptant les activitats existents o creant-ne de noves per tal de treballar les competències transversals relacionades amb el foment de l’esperit emprenedor. Tot i que aquests canvis són lents i difícils de mesurar, en general, s’ha pogut constatar com l’alumnat, en finalitzar el curs, mostra una major iniciativa, autonomía i independència i més capacitat per buscar solucions alternatives als problemes d’una manera creativa així com una actitud més favorable cap a la creació d’empreses que la que tenia al començament.

An exploratory study on facial emotion recognition capacity in beginning Alzheimer's disease.

Objective: It was the aim of this study to investigate facial emotion recognition (FER) in the elderly with cognitive impairment. Method: Twelve patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 12 healthy control subjects were asked to name dynamic or static pictures of basic facial emotions using the Multimodal Emotion Recognition Test and to assess the degree of their difficulty in the recognition task, while their electrodermal conductance was registered as an unconscious processing measure. Results: AD patients had lower objective recognition performances for disgust and fear, but only disgust was accompanied by decreased subjective FER in AD patients. The electrodermal response was similar in all groups. No significant effect of dynamic versus static emotion presentation on FER was found. Conclusion: Selective impairment in recognizing facial expressions of disgust and fear may indicate a nonlinear decline in FER capacity with increasing cognitive impairment and result from progressive though specific damage to neural structures engaged in emotional processing and facial emotion identification. Although our results suggest unchanged unconscious FER processing with increasing cognitive impairment, further investigations on unconscious FER and self-awareness of FER capacity in neurodegenerative disorders are required.