Experimental and theoretical studies on molecular geometry and polymorphism in crystalline drug substances

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Decision theory to support evacuation in advance of catastrophic disaster including modular influence diagrams and spatial data analysis.

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Conference on Geometry and Mathematical Physics, Bulgaria, Zlatograd, 28.08-01.09.2005

List of Participants

Wavelength-division and spatial multiplexing using tandem interferometers for Bragg grating sensor networks

We present a new method for the interrogation of large arrays of Bragg grating sensors. Eight gratings operating between the wavelengths of 1533 and 1555 nm have been demultiplexed. An unbalanced Mach—Zehnder interferometer illuminated by a single low-coherence source provides a high-phase-resolution output for each sensor, the outputs of which are sequentially selected in wavelength by a tunable Fabry-Perot interferometer. The minimum detectable strain measured was 90 ne-vHz at 7 Hz for a wavelength of 1535 nm.

Early predictors of phonological and morphological awareness and the link with reading:evidence from children with different patterns of early deficit

This study examines the contribution of early phonological processing (PP) and language skills on later phonological awareness (PA) and morphological awareness (MA), as well as the links among PA, MA, and reading. Children 4-6 years of age with poor PP at the start of school showed weaker PA and MA 3 years later (age 7-9), regardless of their language skills. PA and phonological and morphological strategies predict reading accuracy, whereas MA predicts reading comprehension. Our findings suggest that children with poor early PP are more at risk of developing deficits in MA and PA than children with poor language. They also suggest that there is a direct link between PA and reading accuracy and between MA and reading comprehension that cannot be accounted for by strategy use at the word level.

Compositional Geometry and Programming

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2014

Self-adaptive volunteered services composition through stimulus-and time-awareness

Volunteered Service Composition (VSC) refers to the process of composing volunteered services and resources. These services are typically published to a pool of voluntary resources. Selection and composition decisions tend to encounter numerous uncertainties: service consumers and applications have little control of these services and tend to be uncertain about their level of support for the desired functionalities and non-functionalities. In this paper, we contribute to a self-awareness framework that implements two levels of awareness, Stimulus-awareness and Time-awareness. The former responds to basic changes in the environment while the latter takes into consideration the historical performance of the services. We have used volunteer service computing as an example to demonstrate the benefits that self-awareness can introduce to self-adaptation. We have compared the Stimulus-and Time-awareness approaches with a recent Ranking approach from the literature. The results show that the Time-awareness level has the advantage of satisfying higher number of requests with lower time cost.

Inspection of parts with complex geometry and welds with structural health monitoring techniques

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems were developed to evaluate the integrity of a system during operation, and to quickly identify the maintenance problems. They will be used in future aerospace vehicles to improve safety, reduce cost and minimize the maintenance time of a system. Many SHM systems were already developed to evaluate the integrity of plates and used in marine structures. Their implementation in manufacturing processes is still expected. The application of SHM methods for complex geometries and welds are two important challenges in this area of research. This research work started by studying the characteristics of piezoelectric actuators, and a small energy harvester was designed. The output voltages at different frequencies of vibration were acquired to determine the nonlinear characteristics of the piezoelectric stripe actuators. The frequency response was evaluated experimentally. AA battery size energy harvesting devices were developed by using these actuators. When the round and square cross section devices were excited at 50 Hz frequency, they generated 16 V and 25 V respectively. The Surface Response to Excitation (SuRE) and Lamb wave methods were used to estimate the condition of parts with complex geometries. Cutting tools and welded plates were considered. Both approaches used piezoelectric elements that were attached to the surfaces of considered parts. The variation of the magnitude of the frequency response was evaluated when the SuRE method was used. The sum of the square of the differences was calculated. The envelope of the received signal was used for the analysis of wave propagation. Bi-orthogonal wavelet (Binlet) analysis was also used for the evaluation of the data obtained during Lamb wave technique. Both the Lamb wave and SuRE approaches along with the three methods for data analysis worked effectively to detect increasing tool wear. Similarly, they detected defects on the plate, on the weld, and on a separate plate without any sensor as long as it was welded to the test plate.

Seasonal and spatial variation in the stable isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of precipitation in south Florida

Precipitation data collected from five sites in south Florida indicate a strong seasonal and spatial variation in δ18O and δD, despite the relatively limited geographic coverage and low-lying elevation of each of the collection sites. Based upon the weighted-mean stable isotope values, the sites were classified as coastal Atlantic, inland, and lower Florida Keys. The coastal Atlantic sites had weighted-mean values of δ18O and δD of −2.86‰ and −12.8‰, respectively, and exhibited a seasonal variation with lower δ18O and δD values in the summer wet-season precipitation (δ18O = −3.38‰, δD = −16.5‰) as compared to the winter-time precipitation (δ18O = −1.66‰, δD = −3.2‰). The inland site was characterized as having the highest d-excess value (+13.3‰), signifying a contribution of evaporated Everglades surface water to the local atmospheric moisture. In spite of its lower latitude, the lower Keys site located at Long Key had the lowest weighted-mean stable isotope values (δ18O = −3.64‰, δD = −20.2‰) as well as the lowest d-excess value of (+8.8‰). The lower δD and δ18O values observed at the Long Key site reflect the combined effects of oceanic vapor source, fractionation due to local precipitation, and slower equilibration of the larger raindrops nucleated by a maritime aerosol. Very low δ18O and δD values (δ18O < −6‰, δD < −40‰) were observed just prior to the passage of hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico as well as during cold fronts from the north-west. These results suggest that an oceanic vapor source region to the west, may be responsible for the extremely low δD and δ18O values observed during some tropical storms and cold fronts.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Mesozooplankton in a Shallow Sub-Tropical Bay: Influence of Top-Down Control

Quantifying the relationship between mesozooplankton and water quality parameters identifies the factors that structure the mesozooplankton community and can be used to generate hypotheses regarding the mechanisms that control the mesozooplankton population and potentially the trophic network. To investigate this relationship, mesozooplankton and water quality data were collected in Florida Bay from 1994 to 2004. Three key characteristics were found in the mesozooplankton community structure: (1) there are significant differences between the four sub-regions of Florida Bay; (2) there is a break in May of 1997 with significant differences before and after this date; and (3) there is a positive correlation between mesozooplankton abundance and salinity. The latter two characteristics are closely correlated with predator abundance, indicating the importance of top-down control. Hypersaline periods appear to provide a refuge from predators, allowing mesozooplankton to increase in abundance despite the increased physiological stress.

Effects of Family, Child, and Teacher Demographics on Prekindergarten Children's Access to and Use of Numeracy and Spatial Materials in the Early Education Setting

Florida’s Voluntary Pre-Kindergarten program (VPK) aims to ensure that all 4-year-olds are prepared to excel in K-12 mathematics. Early numeracy/spatial skills are predictive of success in K–12 mathematics. No research has examined whether VPK classrooms are equipped with the materials necessary to teach numeracy/spatial skill. The Pre-Kindergarten Numeracy and Spatial Environment Survey was created to examine the frequency of access to and use of numeracy/spatial materials in VPK classrooms. The 69-item survey was completed by the lead educator from a sample of 62 pre-kindergarten classrooms in Miami-Dade County. Regression analysis results suggest the location of the pre-kindergarten center, the sex distribution of the children in the classrooms or the number of years of experience that the educator has as a lead teacher along with the extra training courses undertaken by the teachers does not affect the access to or the use of, numeracy and spatial materials in the classrooms.

Environmental and biological drivers of feeding and spatial dynamics in the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis

In eastern Canada, the destruction of foundational kelp beds by dense aggregations (fronts) of the omnivorous green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, is a key determinant of the structure and dynamics of shallow reef communities. Current knowledge about factors affecting the ability of S. droebachiensis to exert top-down community control is based largely on observational studies of patterns in natural habitats, yielding fragmentary, and sometimes contradictory, results. The present research incorporated laboratory microcosm experiments and surveys of urchins in natural habitats to test the effects of abiotic (wave action, water temperature) and biotic (body size, population density) factors on: (1) individual and aggregative feeding on the winged kelp, Alaria esculenta; and (2) displacement, microhabitat use, distribution, and aggregation in food-depleted habitats. Wave action, water temperature, and body size strongly affected the ability of urchins to consume kelp: individual feeding increased with increasing body size and temperature, while aggregative feeding decreased with increasing wave action. Yet, feeding in large urchins dropped by two orders of magnitude between 12 and 18°C. Increasing wave action triggered shifts in urchin displacement, microhabitat use, distribution, and aggregation: urchins reduced displacement and abandoned flat surfaces in favour of crevices. They increasingly formed two-dimensional aggregations at densities ≥110 individuals m⁻². Collectively, results provide a foundational understanding of some of the drivers of feeding and spatial dynamics of S. droebachiensis and potential impacts on the formation of grazing fronts.

Short-term temporal and spatial variations in physical, optical and biogeochemical parameters in June of 2013 in Alfacs Bay (NW Mediterranean)

With the aim of analyzing the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions at high temporal and spatial resolution in the complex estuarine waters of Alfacs Bay, a beam attenuation-based approach was used as optical proxy of different biogeochemical variables. Thus, the dataset contains the attenuation proxies as well as laboratory results from the analysis of water samples, which were used to validate our approach. In addition, the major physical forcing in the Bay was also measured.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Antarctic ice sheet topography, cavity geometry, and global bathymetry (RTopo 1.0.5-beta)

Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile independent regional fields into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-minute bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. Locations of the merging line have been carefully adjusted in order to get the best out of each data set. High-resolution gridded data for upper and lower ice surface topography and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier have been carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), gridded, and again carefully merged into the existing bathymetry map. The global 1-minute dataset (RTopo-1 Version 1.0.5) has been split into two netCDF files. The first contains digital maps for global bedrock topography, ice bottom topography, and surface elevation. The second contains the auxiliary maps for data sources and the surface type mask. A regional subset that covers all variables for the region south of 50 deg S is also available in netCDF format. Datasets for the locations of grounding and coast lines are provided in ASCII format.