Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Incendis històrics a l'alta muntanya pirinenca : anàlisi dels carbons sedimentaris a la torbera de Montarenyo (Lladorre, Pallars Sobirà)

Les zones europees d’alta muntanya, concretament les mediterrànies, han estat utilitzades des de temps remots per l’ésser humà, a través de l’aprofitament de boscos i prats mitjançant activitats com l’agricultura, la ramaderia, la silvicultura i la metal·lúrgia. Però, des de fa temps, amb l’abandonament de les àrees rurals, estem davant d’una falta de gestió dels boscos, degut a la pèrdua de les activitats tradicionals. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és el de determinar l’impacte provocat per les societats antigues sobre els boscos, amb la utilització del foc com a eina de gestió, així com l’anàlisi dels processos d’antropització de les zones de muntanya que utilitzaven aquest recurs. En aquest treball l’anàlisi de l’evolució del paisatge es fa mitjançant l’estudi de les comunitats vegetals històriques i la dinàmica d’incendis, a través de dues metodologies basades en testimonis sedimentaris: l’anàlisi de carbons i l’anàlisi del pol·len. El testimoni sedimentari ha estat extret de la torbera ombrotròfica de Montarenyo, situada a la vessant sud dels Pirineus, a la Vall de Cardós, al Pallars Sobirà. Aquestes dues disciplines han permès indagar en la geohistòria ambiental, per tal d’establir les relacions entre l’ambient i la societat. Els resultats mostren que el foc ha estat utilitzat per nombroses activitats, creant unes dinàmiques forestals característiques. El paisatge actual és conseqüència de les pressions que va haver de patir el bosc durant anys, unes pressions que, amb major o menor mesura han gestionat les masses forestals. Cal doncs conèixer quina ha estat la gestió històrica del bosc per entendre’n el seu estat actual i poder escollir la gestió més adequada per conservar-lo.

New stakeholders, spaces and instruments of analysis in the context of energy relationships: Case studies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia

Leprosy in children and adolescents under 15 years old in an urban centre in Brazil

This original study describes the intra-urban distribution of cases of leprosy in residents under 15 years old in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil; the study also identifies the environment in which Mycobacterium leprae is being transmitted. The cases were distributed by operational classification, clinical forms, type of contact and the addresses were geo-referenced by neighborhood. Between 2007 and 2011, were reported 145 cases of leprosy in target population living in Salvador, corresponding to detection rates of 6.21, 6.14, 5.58, 5.41 and 6.88/100,000 inhabitants, respectively. The spatial distribution of the disease was focal. Of the 157 neighborhoods of Salvador, 44 (28.6%) notified cases of leprosy and in 22 (50%) of these were detected more than 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The infectious forms were found in 40% of cases. Over 90% of cases had been living in Salvador for more than five years. Overall, 52.6% reported having had contact with another infected individual inside the household and 25% in their social circle. In Salvador, M. leprae transmission is established. The situation is a major concern, since transmission is intense at an early age, indicating that this endemic disease is expanding and contacts extend beyond individual households.

A comparison of the spatial dependence of body mass index among adults and children in a Swiss general population.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) may cluster in space among adults and be spatially dependent. Whether BMI clusters among children and how age-specific BMI clusters are related remains unknown. We aimed to identify and compare the spatial dependence of BMI in adults and children in a Swiss general population, taking into account the area's income level. METHODS: Geo-referenced data from the Bus Santé study (adults, n=6663) and Geneva School Health Service (children, n=3601) were used. We implemented global (Moran's I) and local (local indicators of spatial association (LISA)) indices of spatial autocorrelation to investigate the spatial dependence of BMI in adults (35-74 years) and children (6-7 years). Weight and height were measured using standardized procedures. Five spatial autocorrelation classes (LISA clusters) were defined including the high-high BMI class (high BMI participant's BMI value correlated with high BMI-neighbors' mean BMI values). The spatial distributions of clusters were compared between adults and children with and without adjustment for area's income level. RESULTS: In both adults and children, BMI was clearly not distributed at random across the State of Geneva. Both adults' and children's BMIs were associated with the mean BMI of their neighborhood. We found that the clusters of higher BMI in adults and children are located in close, yet different, areas of the state. Significant clusters of high versus low BMIs were clearly identified in both adults and children. Area's income level was associated with children's BMI clusters. CONCLUSIONS: BMI clusters show a specific spatial dependence in adults and children from the general population. Using a fine-scale spatial analytic approach, we identified life course-specific clusters that could guide tailored interventions.

A simulation-based algorithm for solving the resource-assignment problem in satellite telecommunication networks

This paper proposes an heuristic for the scheduling of capacity requests and the periodic assignment of radio resources in geostationary (GEO) satellite networks with star topology, using the Demand Assigned Multiple Access (DAMA) protocol in the link layer, and Multi-Frequency Time Division Multiple Access (MF-TDMA) and Adaptive Coding and Modulation (ACM) in the physical layer.

Reprodución social de familias de niños menores de 7 años

Por medio de muestreo casual-estratificado-proporcional, en este estudio se caracterizaron las formas de reproducción social de 80 familias con niños menores de 7 años, residentes en el área de influencia del HU-USP. Los perfiles de reproducción social fueron construidos utilizándose una base teórico-metodológica-operacional que pre definió tres grupos sociales homogéneos. De la muestra total, 36,1% fueron más excluidas, tanto en el momento de la producción como en el de consumo, 48,2% parecían luchar por la integración en la vida social y 15,7% presentaron inserción calificada en la producción, mostrándose protegidas de la precariedad del trabajo, con un patrón diferenciado de consumo y de representación colectiva y con mayor posibilidad de uso del espacio geo-social. Los resultados demostraron que la metodología utilizada es adecuada para caracterizar los perfiles de reproducción social, evidenciando que los grupos sociales que componen una misma sociedad presentaron condiciones de trabajo y de vida distintas y que cada grupo social está expuesto a determinados patrones de fortalecimiento y de desgaste.

Human-Computer Interaction with older people through ethnographical lenses: everyday interactions with ICT

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the School of Computing of the University of Dundee, United Kingdom, from 2010 to 2012. This document is a scientific report of the work done, main results, publications and accomplishment of the objectives of the 2-year post-doctoral research project with reference number BP-A 00239. The project has addressed the topic of older people (60+) and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which is a topic of growing social and research interest, from a Human-Computer Interaction perspective. Over a 2-year period (June 2010-June 2012), we have conducted classical ethnography of ICT use in a computer clubhouse in Scotland, addressing interaction barriers and strategies, social sharing practices in Social Network Sites, and ICT learning, and carried out rapid ethnographical studies related to geo-enabled ICT and e-government services towards supporting independent living and active ageing. The main results have provided a much deeper understanding of (i) the everyday use of Computer-Mediated Communication tools, such as video-chats and blogs, and its evolution as older people’s experience with ICT increases over time, (ii) cross-cultural aspects of ICT use in the north and south of Europe, (iii) the relevance of cognition over vision in interacting with geographical information and a wide range of ICT tools, despite common stereotypes (e.g. make things bigger), (iv) the important relationship offline-online to provide older people with socially inclusive and meaningful eservices for independent living and active ageing, (v) how older people carry out social sharing practices in the popular YouTube, (vi) their user experiences and (vii) the challenges they face in ICT learning and the strategies they use to become successful ICT learners over time. The research conducted in this project has been published in 17 papers, 4 in journals – two of which in JCR, 5 in conferences, 4 in workshops and 4 in magazines. Other public output consists of 10 invited talks and seminars.

Structural variation-associated expression changes are paralleled by chromatin architecture modifications.

Copy number variants (CNVs) influence the expression of genes that map not only within the rearrangement, but also to its flanks. To assess the possible mechanism(s) underlying this "neighboring effect", we compared intrachromosomal interactions and histone modifications in cell lines of patients affected by genomic disorders and control individuals. Using chromosome conformation capture (4C-seq), we observed that a set of genes flanking the Williams-Beuren Syndrome critical region (WBSCR) were often looping together. The newly identified interacting genes include AUTS2, mutations of which are associated with autism and intellectual disabilities. Deletion of the WBSCR disrupts the expression of this group of flanking genes, as well as long-range interactions between them and the rearranged interval. We also pinpointed concomitant changes in histone modifications between samples. We conclude that large genomic rearrangements can lead to chromatin conformation changes that extend far away from the structural variant, thereby possibly modulating expression globally and modifying the phenotype. GEO SERIES ACCESSION NUMBER: GSE33784, GSE33867.

Mapping of Environmental Data Using Kernel-Based Methods

Recently, kernel-based Machine Learning methods have gained great popularity in many data analysis and data mining fields: pattern recognition, biocomputing, speech and vision, engineering, remote sensing etc. The paper describes the use of kernel methods to approach the processing of large datasets from environmental monitoring networks. Several typical problems of the environmental sciences and their solutions provided by kernel-based methods are considered: classification of categorical data (soil type classification), mapping of environmental and pollution continuous information (pollution of soil by radionuclides), mapping with auxiliary information (climatic data from Aral Sea region). The promising developments, such as automatic emergency hot spot detection and monitoring network optimization are discussed as well.

A genetic isolation gradient of populations of the Balearic green toad (Bufo balearicus) follows rising eastward fragmentation of the rural landscapes on the island of Menorca.

We present the first approach to the genetic diversity and structure of the Balearic toad (Bufo balearicus Boettger, 1880) for the island of Menorca. Forty-one individ- uals from 21 localities were analyzed for ten microsatellite loci. We used geo-refer- enced individual multilocus genotypes and a model-based clustering method for the inference of the number of populations and of the spatial location of genetic dis- continuities between those populations.¦Only six of the microsatellites analyzed were polymorphic. We revealed a northwest- ern area inhabited by a single population with several well-connected localities and another set of populations in the southeast that includes a few unconnected small units with genetically significant differences among them as well as with the individ- uals from the northwest of the island. The observed fragmentation may be explained by shifts from agricultural to tourism practices that have been taking place on the island of Menorca since the 1960s. The abandonment of rural activities in favor of urbanization and concomitant service areas has mostly affected the southeast of the island and is currently threatening the overall geographic connectivity between the different farming areas of the island that are inhabited by the Balearic toad.

La Geografia política en Vidal de la Blanche: la France de l'Est

En 1979 Y. Lacoste a publié dans la revue "Hérodote" un article surprenant intitulé "A bas Vidal ... Viva Vidal" qui exhumait la dernière œuvre de Vidal de la Blache: La france de I'Est (Loraine-Alsace) (1917). Dans cet article, Lacoste faisait l'éloge de certains aspects économiques, sociaux et surtout géopolitiques, non traités dans le traditionnel modèle vidalien. Nous tenterons d'approfondir dans cet essai l'une des questions qu'a induite l'article de Lacoste, a savoir la place qu'occupe la Géographie Politique dans l'école vidalienne. Les différents travaux et actions des disciples de Vidal ont fait preuve d’un grand intérêt pour la Géographie Politique en abandonnant provisoirement le schéma descriptif prope à la géographie régionale française. À la fin de la première guerre mondiale, le problème frontalier de l'Alsace-Loraine devient l'axe central de La France de I'Est; On a fait ressortir les éléments géopolitiques de cette œuvre a fin de démontrer que l'aspect géopolitique de l'école vidalienne est méconnu

Geological and Geomorphological Cartography at Scale 1: 10.000: a Tool of Management for Towns

Geological and geomorphological mapping at scale 1:10.000 besides from being an important source of scientific information it is also a necessary tool for municipal organs in order to make proper decisions when dealing with geo-environmental problems concerning integral territorial development. In this work, detailed information is given on the contents of such maps, their social and economical application, and a balance of the investment and gains that derives from them

Lectura ambiental de la cartografía geológica

Geological and geomorphological maps are, apart from a source of scientific information, a necessary tool in order to take proper decisions to solve the geo-environmental problems that arise when dealing with territorial planning. In this paper, the social and economical utility of such maps is described, and some exercises meant for Science of Earth and Environmental Sciences students are proposed

Relatório de Estágio no Consulado Honorário de Portugal no Mindelo. Estudo de Caso: parceria especial Cabo Verde e União Europeia - o contributo de Portugal

Tendo em conta a importância vital na ligação do Estado às comunidades no estrangeiro, a rede consular vem há muito tempo assumindo o papel de difusor e promotor da cultura, da língua e do Turismo. Mais que meros postos burocráticos, estas missões consulares confirmam-se amiúde como verdadeiros “pequenos ministérios da cultura”, forjando complexas redes identitárias e culturais e, ao mesmo tempo, projetando a cultura, a língua e o turismo.1 A crescente afirmação de Cabo Verde no plano internacional pressupõe uma clara articulação entre a política interna e a política externa de modo a que o interesse nacional possa ser devidamente equacionado, promovido e defendido em tudo quanto seja posicionamento externo do país.2 E Cabo Verde sendo uma nação de vocação eminentemente atlântica, o que lhe confere um papel de relevante utilidade geo-estratégica que importa ser assumido por inteiro, com a preocupação primeira de manter e consolidar as parcerias existentes, construir novas parcerias de alcance estratégico e erigir alianças seguras e eficazes ao serviço do interesse nacional.3 É nesta ótica, que pretendemos fazer a análise das relações entre Cabo Verde e Portugal, identificar a importância desta relação sobretudo no estabelecimento da Parceria Especial Cabo Verde – União Europeia (CV-UE), uma vez que foi durante a terceira Presidência Portuguesa do Conselho Europeu em 2007, que Cabo Verde e a União Europeia, assinaram a Parceria Especial, cujo objetivo é reforçar as suas relações no âmbito do Acordo de Cotonou. A parceria foi fundamentada sob o ponto de vista de que estes dois atores internacionais partilham interesses e desafios comuns, assim como, laços históricos, culturais e linguísticos que caracterizam as suas relações. 1 Santos, António. (2012). Relatório Estágio: A Atividade Cultural do Consulado Geral de Portugal em Boston 2 Programa do Governo para a VII Legislatura 2006 – 2011 3 IDEM É neste contexto e com este entendimento que Cabo Verde tem vindo a procurar assegurar a sua atuação internacional, garantindo a tempo um desenvolvimento da economia e preservando a paz, a estabilidade interna e a sua segurança.