Impacto de la crisis financiera y económica internacional en el Sistema Bancario del Ecuador

La crisis financiera global de 2007 – 2009 fue un acontecimiento solamente comparable con la Gran Depresión de los años treinta y su impacto negativo en las economías de todo el planeta ha disminuido las expectativas de crecimiento y desarrollo mundial. Latinoamérica salió relativamente bien librada de esta crisis y sus sistemas financieros han evolucionado de manera favorable gracias al menor contagio y a la solidez adquirida como consecuencia de crisis pasadas y una mejor regulación. Sin embargo, existió un impacto en los mismos como consecuencia de la operación de los flujos comerciales y financieros como canales de transmisión de la crisis. Ecuador no fue la excepción. Se presenta a continuación el trabajo titulado ¨IMPACTO DE LA CRISIS FINANCIERA Y ECONÓMICA INTERNACIONAL EN EL SISTEMA BANCARIO DEL ECUADOR”. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue determinar el impacto y las medidas de respuesta de la banca ecuatoriana frente al agravamiento de la crisis económica y financiera mundial en el Ecuador, así como una comparación con el caso de sus países vecinos, Colombia y Perú. Para lograr este objetivo en el capítulo uno se revisa los debates teóricos relevantes para el trabajo planteado. Se abordan igualmente aspectos principales de la crisis financiera mundial que arrancó en el año 2007. Se identifican los canales de transmisión de la crisis hacia los países en desarrollo y se describen sus impactos en Latinoamérica, principalmente en su sistema financiero. En el capítulo dos se analiza el impacto de la crisis financiera y económica global en el Ecuador y los canales por los cuales se transmitió. Se establece la evolución del sistema financiero ecuatoriano en el periodo 2002 – 2010 y el impacto y la respuesta del sistema bancario en el espacio que contempla diciembre 2008 hasta el primer semestre de 2009. Se analiza el comportamiento del sistema en este periodo y cuál fue su respuesta. Se realiza una comparación con Colombia y Perú. Finalmente se presentan las conclusiones relevantes de los dos capítulos que permiten establecer que el sistema bancario fue afectado por la ralentización del ritmo de crecimiento de la economía y que su respuesta fue procíclica en la medida que la actividad bancaria se expandió durante el periodo de bonanza de la economía en años anteriores y se contrajo como consecuencia de la crisis.

El impacto de la crisis financiera y económica internacional en la banca del Ecuador

La crisis financiera y económica internacional originó una convulsión mundial con altísimos costos económicos y sociales, y motivó un fuerte cuestionamiento a la supuesta solidez del pensamiento económico dominante. Ecuador, un país marginal y que vivió su mayor crisis financiera en los años 90 del siglo anterior, también sufrió el impacto de esta crisis. Con el objeto de comprender mejor este fenómeno, este libro aborda aspectos relevantes sobre los canales de transmisión de la crisis, describiendo sus efectos en el sistema financiero latinoamericano. Se analiza particularmente el caso del Ecuador y se presenta una comparación con las situaciones de Colombia y Perú. El autor se pregunta cuáles fueron los efectos de la crisis financiera mundial y cómo reaccionaron los países en desarrollo frente a los choques negativos en el comercio y las finanzas, para luego discutir el comportamiento procíclico del sistema bancario privado del Ecuador y el rol de la banca pública en esta coyuntura. El libro familiariza al lector con temas económicos de gran importancia en la actual coyuntura internacional. Concluye con varias consideraciones sobre el neoliberalismo, la importancia del rol del Estado, los desafíos para los países en desarrollo y para las finanzas del Ecuador. De esta forma acerca al lector a la profundización y reflexión sobre los retos que estas cuestiones plantean.

On the connection between dissipation enhancement in the ocean surface layer and Langmuir circulations

A mechanism for the enhancement of the viscous dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the oceanic boundary layer (OBL) is proposed, based on insights gained from rapid-distortion theory (RDT). In this mechanism, which complements mechanisms purely based on wave breaking, preexisting TKE is amplified and subsequently dissipated by the joint action of a mean Eulerian wind-induced shear current and the Stokes drift of surface waves, the same elements thought to be responsible for the generation of Langmuir circulations. Assuming that the TKE dissipation rate epsilon saturates to its equilibrium value over a time of the order one eddy turnover time of the turbulence, a new scaling expression, dependent on the turbulent Langmuir number, is derived for epsilon. For reasonable values of the input parameters, the new expression predicts an increase of the dissipation rate near the surface by orders of magnitude compared with usual surface-layer scaling estimates, consistent with available OBL data. These results establish on firmer grounds a suspected connection between two central OBL phenomena: dissipation enhancement and Langmuir circulations.

Statistical analysis of eight surface ozone measurement series for various sites in Ireland

Data from various stations having different measurement record periods between 1988 and 2007 are analyzed to investigate the surface ozone concentration, long-term trends, and seasonal changes in and around Ireland. Time series statistical analysis is performed on the monthly mean data using seasonal and trend decomposition procedures and the Box-Jenkins approach (autoregressive integrated moving average). In general, ozone concentrations in the Irish region are found to have a negative trend at all sites except at the coastal sites of Mace Head and Valentia. Data from the most polluted Dublin city site have shown a very strong negative trend of −0.33 ppb/yr with a 95% confidence limit of 0.17 ppb/yr (i.e., −0.33 ± 0.17) for the period 2002−2007, and for the site near the city of Cork, the trend is found to be −0.20 ± 0.11 ppb/yr over the same period. The negative trend for other sites is more pronounced when the data span is considered from around the year 2000 to 2007. Rural sites of Wexford and Monaghan have also shown a very strong negative trend of −0.99 ± 0.13 and −0.58 ± 0.12, respectively, for the period 2000−2007. Mace Head, a site that is representative of ozone changes in the air advected from the Atlantic to Europe in the marine planetary boundary layer, has shown a positive trend of about +0.16 ± 0.04 ppb per annum over the entire period 1988−2007, but this positive trend has reduced during recent years (e.g., in the period 2001−2007). Cluster analysis for back trajectories are performed for the stations having a long record of data, Mace Head and Lough Navar. For Mace Head, the northern and western clean air sectors have shown a similar positive trend (+0.17 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the northern sector and +0.18 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the western sector) for the whole period, but partial analysis for the clean western sector at Mace Head shows different trends during different time periods with a decrease in the positive trend since 1988 indicating a deceleration in the ozone trend for Atlantic air masses entering Europe.

Variability and trends in England and Wales precipitation

The England and Wales precipitation (EWP) dataset is a homogeneous time series of daily accumulations from 1931 to 2014, composed from rain gauge observations spanning the region. The daily regional-average precipitation statistics are shown to be well described by a Weibull distribution, which is used to define extremes in terms of percentiles. Computed trends in annual and seasonal precipitation are sensitive to the period chosen, due to large variability on interannual and decadal timescales. Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with seasonal precipitation variability are identified. These patterns project onto known leading modes of variability, all of which involve displacements of the jet stream and storm-track over the eastern Atlantic. The intensity of daily precipitation for each calendar season is investigated by partitioning all observations into eight intensity categories contributing equally to the total precipitation in the dataset. Contrary to previous results based on shorter periods, no significant trends of the most intense categories are found between 1931 and 2014. The regional-average precipitation is found to share statistical properties common to the majority of individual stations across England and Wales used in previous studies. Statistics of the EWP data are examined for multi-day accumulations up to 10 days, which are more relevant for river flooding. Four recent years (2000, 2007, 2008 and 2012) have a greater number of extreme events in the 3-and 5-day accumulations than any previous year in the record. It is the duration of precipitation events in these years that is remarkable, rather than the magnitude of the daily accumulations.

Omvårdnad vid Amyotrofisk lateral skleros : erfarenheter ur ett patient och anhörigperspektiv : En systematisk litteraturstudie

Amyotrofisk lateral skleros (ALS) är en fortskridande neurologiska sjukdom som ger den drabbade och de anhöriga mycket sorg och smärta. Syftet med föreliggande systematiska litteraturstudie var att utifrån aktuell vetenskaplig litteratur beskriva upplevelsen och behovet av omvårdnad som den sjuke i ALS och deras anhöriga behövde. Syftet var också att beskriva vilken typ av information och stöd som behövdes. De vetenskapliga artiklarna som ligger till grund för denna litteraturstudie har sökt på databaserna Elin@Dalarna och Blackwell Synergy. Artiklarna skulle vara publicerade mellan åren 2000-2007 och vara skrivna på engelska. Även manuella sökningar har gjorts. Resultatet visade att sjukvården hade ett stort ansvar att stötta, hjälpa och informera vid denna fortskridande neurologiska sjukdom. Det fanns behov av multiinriktad omvårdnad där många olika professioner ingick för att kunna ge patienterna den helhetsvård de behövde. Det framkom att anhöriga var de som hade den givna omvårdnadsrollen och att de hade ett behov av avlastning och information om sjukdomen, behandlingen och symtomen. Anhöriga upplevde sjukdomen som en stor börda och påverkade deras egna hälsa.

Kvinnors upplevelser i samband med hjärtinfarkt

Syftet med studien var att beskriva vilka faktorer som påverkade kvinnan i beslutet att söka sjukvård. Vidare var syftet att beskriva vilka upplevelser kvinnor som genomgått hjärtinfarkt hade innan kvinnorna beslutade sig för att kontakta sjukvården. Underlag till systematiska litteraturstudien söktes i referensdatabaser. Inkluderade artiklar i studien skulle vara publicerade mellan åren 2000-2007. Artiklarna skulle vara skrivna på engelska samt tillgängliga i fulltext via Internet. Kvalitetsgranskning av artiklar gjordes med stöd av modifierad kvalitetsgranskningsmall. Sammanfattningsvis konstaterades att kvinnorna i studerade artiklar kunde uppvisa likadana fysiska upplevelser som finns beskrivet i litteraturen, som klassiska upplevelser vid hjärtinfarkt. Klassiska upplevelser var plötsligt insättande av bröstsmärta, ångest, illamående, andfåddhet och kallsvett. Utstrålning av smärta mot käke, axlar, armar och nacke. Kvinnor upplevde i högre grad extrem trötthet, utmattning och svaghet i jämförelse med klassiska upplevelser vid insjuknandet i hjärtinfarkt. Orsakerna till att kvinnor hade svårigheter att ta beslut att söka sjukvård var flera. Drabbade kvinnors okunskap om vilka upplevelser kvinnor upplevde vid hjärtinfarkt bidrog till försening. Kvinnorna satte inget samband mellan fysiska upplevelsen och hjärtinfarkt. Kvinnorna var övertygade om att upplevelsen inte utgjorde något hot mot hälsan.

Akut hjärtinfarkt hos kvinnor : upplevelser och behov av stöd

Syftet med litteraturstudien var att beskriva vilka upplevelser kvinnor har vid hjärtinfarkt och deras behov av stöd samt vilka faktorer som påverkar kvinnor till att de söker vård sent.Underlag till studien söktes i databaserna Blackwell Synergy, CINAHL, Elsevier, PubMed och Elin@Dalarna. Urvalskriterierna var att artiklarna skulle vara relevanta för syftet samt vara publicerade i internationella vetenskapliga tidskrifter från år 2000-2007. Artiklarna kvalitetsgranskades med avseende vetenskaplig kvalitet. av granskningsmallar Resultatet av kvinnors upplevelser vid hjärtinfarkt visade sig vara de fysiska upplevelserna. Kvinnorupplevde oftast inte den klassiska vänstersidiga bröstsmärtan som beskrivs i litteraturen utan de hade varierade upplevelser av bröstsmärta från värk och tyngdkänsla till en brännande ellerkramande känsla i bröstet. Utmattning och huvudvärk förekom som ett vanligt prodromalt symtom. Andra upplevelser var muskelsvaghet, andnöd, smärta i axlar, käkar, armar, rygg,nacke, skulderblad och buksmärtor. Variationer i kroppstemperatur, illamående och psykiska reaktioner som ångest och oro förekom. Kvinnor förknippade inte sina symtom till hjärtinfarktde förnekade och distanserade sina besvär. Det ledde oftast till fördröjd vårdkontakt. Kvinnor behövde stöd från anhöriga och vänner innan de sökte vård. De behövde också stöd avsjuksköterskan i form av information.

Um modelo de correção da distribuição de população para municípios brasileiros

Este trabalho propõe um método para corrigir a distorção observada na distribuição de população dos municípios brasileiros presente nos dados de Censo Demográfico. Essa distorção se caracteriza por uma concentração elevada de municípios com valores de população próximos das mudanças de faixa do Fundo de Participação de Municípios (FPM). O método identifica os municípios candidatos a ajuste, ou seja, com maiores distorções obtidas através de um método Jackknife, e sugere uma correção para sua população de acordo com um modelo linear que segue a Lei de Zipf de distribuição de população de cidades (ZIPF, 1949). Após o ajuste o proposto, o teste de McCrary (2008) captura significativa redução nas descontinuidades na distribuição da população dos municípios para os anos de 2000, 2007 e 2010.

Perceção do envolvimento face à atividade física e consumo de frutas e hortícolas, aptidão aeróbia e a sua relação com a obesidade: um estudo em alunos do 7º ano da RAA e da RAM

A alteração do nosso quotidiano levou a uma mudança nos hábitos alimentares, padrões e níveis de actividade física, o que pode explicar o aumento das taxas de prevalência de excesso de peso e obesidade. No entanto, para podermos intervir, é necessário compreender a influência dos factores explicativos. Com o presente estudo, pretendemos comparar duas escolas, uma de cada Região Autónoma, da Madeira (RAM) e dos Açores (RAA), nos seguintes aspectos: a) caracterizar o nível de obesidade, aptidão aeróbia, participação desportiva, hábitos alimentares e a sua percepção do envolvimento físico, e b) identificar quais das variáveis em estudo são predictores de uma percentagem de massa gorda (%MG) alta e muito alta. Participaram no estudo 326 sujeitos de ambos os sexos, da RAA (n=123) e da RAM (n=203). Os níveis de obesidade foram determinados segundo os valores referenciados por Cole et al. (2000, 2007), a %MG foi calculada através da fórmula de Slaughter et al. (1988) e categorizados segundo Lohman (1987). A aptidão aeróbia foi avaliada através do teste vaivém da bateria de testes Fitnessgram (The Cooper Institute for Aerobics Research, 2007). Foram utilizados questionários para avaliação da participação desportiva, comportamentos alimentares (Wilson et al., 2008) e percepção do envolvimento físico (Evenson et al., 2006). Verificamos que 29% dos sujeitos avaliados apresentam excesso de peso ou obesidade, 30,4% apresentam %MG alta ou muito alta, 61% apresentam uma aptidão aeróbia abaixo da zona saudável, e 64,7% indicam a Educação Física como única actividade física organizada e regular em que participam. Foram encontradas diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre as duas escolas (RAA e RAM) na participação desportiva e na percepção do envolvimento físico. Foi possível constatar que a percepção de disponibilidade de frutos e hortícolas (OR: 0,854; 95%CI 0,746 – 0,977) e a percepção de envolvimento físico com barreiras geográficas (OR: 1,127; 95%CI 1,023-1,240) são predictores de uma %MG alta ou muito alta.

Representações sociais de professor partilhadas por licenciados a partir de imagens de professor

This investigation had the teacher as object of study, whose objective was to know and analyze the teacher‟s Social Representations (SR) shared by undergraduates, as from images of this professional (teachers´ photos of several levels and school systems). It was searched out the process of depreciation or estimation, in which the teaching profession has been passing, trying to catch, specifically, possible existing correlations among such SR and the reflections in the attitudes developed by these students about their own development and professional practice. The data collection was carried out at the Federal University of Piauí Teresina with 165 undergraduates (15 from each course). It was applied a semi-structured interview, mediated by iconographic grouping (SALES, 2000, 2007), outlining a methodological widening of the studies fulfilled by (ROAZZI, 1995). It was used the function Factor Analysis, available in the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) for the analysis of the quantitative data, and it was proceeded a content analysis through the categorical analysis technique (BARDIN, 1977) for the analytical procedures of the qualitative data. It was resorted to the SR theory (MOSCOVICI, 1978) for the data interpretation and the Theory of Signs (PEIRCE. 1995) in the understanding of the decodification processes of signs that were present in the photos worked. It became evident that the undergraduates perceived the teaching profession inserted in a hierarchical scale of values (positive/negative), directly related to the school system and the teaching level, in which the teacher works. Most undergraduates share teacher‟s SR of negative content, consolidating the hegemonic SR about the teacher‟s social depreciation, although some of them imagine themselves, in the future, inserted among the teachers more appraised, showing that the SR orientate the positive and negative attitudes about the teacher. The presence of SR that mobilize the interviewers‟ attitudes in opposite senses related to the teacher, offer evidence of the necessity of future studies that can use a methodology more focused to understand other motivation factors that the undergraduates give evidence of having to the course they have chosen, besides the ones inferred by the SR caught in this investigation, as well as to establish a correlation between the teacher‟s SR (positive and negative) and the social economic level of the interviewers that share them. Such data revealed itself necessary since the literature signalizes for a relation between the course chosen and the applicant‟s social-economic level, and that the applicants‟ objective conditions to the licenciature courses are related to the subjective hopes that their group supplies

Objetiva(ação) da medida e contagem do tempo em práticas socioculturais e educativas

This thesis describes and analyzes various processes established and practiced by both groups about the socio-cultural objective (action) the measurement and timing, mobilized some socio-historical practices as the use of the gnômon of the sundial and reading and interpretation of movements celestial constellations in cultural contexts such as indigenous communities and fishermen in the state of Pará, Brazil. The Purpose of the study was to describe and analyze the mobilization of such practices in the socio-historical development of matrices for teaching concepts and skills related to geometric angles, similar triangles, symmetry and proportionality in the training of mathematics teachers. The record of the entire history of investigation into the socio-historical practice, the formative action was based on epistemological assumptions of education ethnomathematics proposed by Vergani (2000, 2007) and Ubiratan D'Ambrosio (1986, 1993, 1996, 2001, 2004) and Alain Bishop conceptions about mathematics enculturation. At the end of the study I present my views on the practices of contributions called socio-cultural and historical for school mathematics, to give meaning to the concept formation and teaching of students, especially the implications of Education Ethnomatematics proposed by Vergani (2000) for training of future teachers of mathematics

Inflation targeting works well in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Índices de extremos climáticos e tendências da precipitação anual e sazonal na Amazônia Oriental

Baseado no conjunto de dados diários de precipitação e temperatura do ar de oito estações meteorológicas sobre o Pará, pertencentes ao INMET, disponíveis no período 1961-2007, foram calculados índices de extremos climáticos através da metodologia estatística do software RClimdex. Utilizando-se ainda um conjunto de dados mensais de precipitação de 134 estações pluviométricas da Amazônia oriental, provenientes da ANA e INMET, foram analisadas as tendências anual e sazonal num período de 25 a 37 anos (1970-2009), através da aplicação da estatística não-paramétrica (teste de Mann-Kendall e método de Sen). E por fim, utilizaram-se dados de desmatamento do PRODES/INPE no período 2000-2007, para analisar a possível influência do desmatamento nas tendências de precipitação anual e sazonal do Pará. Considerando os índices de extremos climáticos referentes aos dados diários de precipitação, constatou-se que a variabilidade interanual dos índices possui relações com os episódios ENOS e as fases do Dipolo do Atlântico. Para os extremos climáticos de temperatura evidenciaram-se reduções sistemáticas dos dias frios (TX10p) e aumentos sistemáticos da mínima da máxima temperatura (TXN), da percentagem de noites quentes (TX90p) e da temperatura máxima da máxima (TXX). Os resultados das tendências da precipitação anual usando os testes não-paramétricos evidenciaram que do total de 134 estações, em torno de 51% apresentam tendências positivas e 41% tendências negativas sobre a Amazônia oriental. Contudo, essas tendências anuais “mascararam” de certa forma as tendências sazonais, cujos resultados mostraram-se mais diversificados, explicando melhor os aspectos da variabilidade climática regional. Para o trimestre MAM, observaram-se 99 estações (74%) com tendências positivas, indicando que a quantidade de precipitação durante o período chuvoso principal vem aumentando sistematicamente durante a última década. Em DJF, notaram-se 45 estações (34%) com tendências positivas e 78 estações (58%) com tendências negativas. Por outro lado, nos trimestres que englobam o período seco ou menos chuvoso verificaram-se tendências sazonais predominantemente negativas, com 84 estações (62%) em JJA e 89 estações (66%) em SON. Portanto, a evidência observacional de que a precipitação do período seco encontra-se em diminuição gradativa nas últimas décadas corrobora com a hipótese de que o desmatamento associa-se com a redução da precipitação em escala regional, porém sugere-se que isso ocorra em escala de tempo sazonal.

Analyzing the dependence structure of microarray data: a copula–based approach

The main aim of this Ph.D. dissertation is the study of clustering dependent data by means of copula functions with particular emphasis on microarray data. Copula functions are a popular multivariate modeling tool in each field where the multivariate dependence is of great interest and their use in clustering has not been still investigated. The first part of this work contains the review of the literature of clustering methods, copula functions and microarray experiments. The attention focuses on the K–means (Hartigan, 1975; Hartigan and Wong, 1979), the hierarchical (Everitt, 1974) and the model–based (Fraley and Raftery, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007) clustering techniques because their performance is compared. Then, the probabilistic interpretation of the Sklar’s theorem (Sklar’s, 1959), the estimation methods for copulas like the Inference for Margins (Joe and Xu, 1996) and the Archimedean and Elliptical copula families are presented. In the end, applications of clustering methods and copulas to the genetic and microarray experiments are highlighted. The second part contains the original contribution proposed. A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the performance of the K–means and the hierarchical bottom–up clustering methods in identifying clusters according to the dependence structure of the data generating process. Different simulations are performed by varying different conditions (e.g., the kind of margins (distinct, overlapping and nested) and the value of the dependence parameter ) and the results are evaluated by means of different measures of performance. In light of the simulation results and of the limits of the two investigated clustering methods, a new clustering algorithm based on copula functions (‘CoClust’ in brief) is proposed. The basic idea, the iterative procedure of the CoClust and the description of the written R functions with their output are given. The CoClust algorithm is tested on simulated data (by varying the number of clusters, the copula models, the dependence parameter value and the degree of overlap of margins) and is compared with the performance of model–based clustering by using different measures of performance, like the percentage of well–identified number of clusters and the not rejection percentage of H0 on . It is shown that the CoClust algorithm allows to overcome all observed limits of the other investigated clustering techniques and is able to identify clusters according to the dependence structure of the data independently of the degree of overlap of margins and the strength of the dependence. The CoClust uses a criterion based on the maximized log–likelihood function of the copula and can virtually account for any possible dependence relationship between observations. Many peculiar characteristics are shown for the CoClust, e.g. its capability of identifying the true number of clusters and the fact that it does not require a starting classification. Finally, the CoClust algorithm is applied to the real microarray data of Hedenfalk et al. (2001) both to the gene expressions observed in three different cancer samples and to the columns (tumor samples) of the whole data matrix.