Factors affecting nutrition behavior among middle-class adolescents in urban area of Northern region of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Brazil has been called a nation in nutrition transitional because of recent increases in the prevalence of obesity and related chronic diseases. With overweight conditions already prevalent among middle-income populations, there exists a need to identify factors that influence nutrition behavior within this group. OBJECTIVE: To address this subject, a research study was implemented among middle-class adolescents attending a large private secondary school in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. The study determined the availability and accessibility of snack foods as well as subjects’ attitudes and preferences towards, and the influence of family and friends on healthy (high-nutrient density) snack choices. METHODS: The 4-stage process included: (a) a nutrition expert focus group discussion that reported local nutrition problems in general and factors related to adolescent nutrition, (b) an adolescent pilot survey (n=63) that solicited information about snacking preferences and habits as well as resources for nutrition information and snack money; (c) a survey of various area food market sources to determine the availability and accessibility of high nutrient density snacks; and (d) a follow-up adolescent survey (n=55) that measured snack food preferences and perceptions about their cost and availability. RESULTS: Results included the finding that, although affordable high nutrient density snacks were available, preferences for low nutrient density snacks prevailed. The adolescents were reportedly more likely to be influenced by and obtain nutrition information from family members than friends. CONCLUSION: From study results it is apparent that a focus on food availability will not automatically result in proper nutritional practices among adolescents. This fact and the parental influence detected are evidence of a need to involve adolescents and their parents in nutrition education campaigns to improve adolescent snack food choices.

The Bambuí health and ageing study (BHAS): methodological approach and preliminary results of a population-based cohort study of the elderly in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: A cohort study has been designed to identify predictors of adverse health events in the elderly. The methodology of the study and preliminary descriptive results are presented. METHODS: The study population comprises all residents of Bambuí (Minas Gerais, Brazil), aged 60 or more years (n=1.742). From these, 92.2% were interviewed and 85.9% underwent clinical examination, consisting of haematological and biochemical tests, serology for Trypanosoma cruzi, anthropometric and blood pressure measures and electrocardiogram. Aliquots of serum, plasma and DNA were stored for future investigations. The baseline interview included sociodemographic characteristics, self-referred health condition and history of selected diseases, medication use, health service use, source of medical care, physical activities, smoking, drinking and eating habits, reproductive history, physical functioning, life events, social support and mental health. Individuals are being followed up annually. RESULTS: The following characteristics predominated among participants: women (60,0%), married (48.9%) or widowed (35.4%), people living in households with up to 2 residents (73.8%), heads of family (76.7%), people with monthly income between 1.00 and 2.99 Brazilian minimum wages (62.0%) and people with up to 4 years of schooling (89.1%). The median age was 68 years. Among the cohort members, only 1.7% were lost in the first follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In general, the characteristics of the study population were very similar to those from other epidemiological studies of the elderly based on large Brazilian cities. The small number of losses to follow-up indicates that the choice of Bambuí was adequate, assuring the feasibility of a long term cohort study.

Leptonic mixing, family symmetries, and neutrino phenomenology

Tribimaximal leptonic mixing is a mass-independent mixing scheme consistent with the present solar and atmospheric neutrino data. By conveniently decomposing the effective neutrino mass matrix associated to it, we derive generic predictions in terms of the parameters governing the neutrino masses. We extend this phenomenological analysis to other mass-independent mixing schemes which are related to the tribimaximal form by a unitary transformation. We classify models that produce tribimaximal leptonic mixing through the group structure of their family symmetries in order to point out that there is often a direct connection between the group structure and the phenomenological analysis. The type of seesaw mechanism responsible for neutrino masses plays a role here, as it restricts the choices of family representations and affects the viability of leptogenesis. We also present a recipe to generalize a given tribimaximal model to an associated model with a different mass-independent mixing scheme, which preserves the connection between the group structure and phenomenology as in the original model. This procedure is explicitly illustrated by constructing toy models with the transpose tribimaximal, bimaximal, golden ratio, and hexagonal leptonic mixing patterns.

Theory and phenomenology of two-higgs-doublet models

We discuss theoretical and phenomenological aspects of two-Higgs-doublet extensions of the Standard Model. In general, these extensions have scalar mediated flavour changing neutral currents which are strongly constrained by experiment. Various strategies are discussed to control these flavour changing scalar currents and their phenomenological consequences are analysed. In particular, scenarios with natural flavour conservation are investigated, including the so-called type I and type II models as well as lepton-specific and inert models. Type III models are then discussed, where scalar flavour changing neutral currents are present at tree level, but are suppressed by either a specific ansatz for the Yukawa couplings or by the introduction of family symmetries leading to a natural suppression mechanism. We also consider the phenomenology of charged scalars in these models. Next we turn to the role of symmetries in the scalar sector. We discuss the six symmetry-constrained scalar potentials and their extension into the fermion sector. The vacuum structure of the scalar potential is analysed, including a study of the vacuum stability conditions on the potential and the renormalization-group improvement of these conditions is also presented. The stability of the tree level minimum of the scalar potential in connection with electric charge conservation and its behaviour under CP is analysed. The question of CP violation is addressed in detail, including the cases of explicit CP violation and spontaneous CP violation. We present a detailed study of weak basis invariants which are odd under CP. These invariants allow for the possibility of studying the CP properties of any two-Higgs-doublet model in an arbitrary Higgs basis. A careful study of spontaneous CP violation is presented, including an analysis of the conditions which have to be satisfied in order for a vacuum to violate CP. We present minimal models of CP violation where the vacuum phase is sufficient to generate a complex CKM matrix, which is at present a requirement for any realistic model of spontaneous CP violation.

The effects of parental sensitivity and involvement in caregiving on mother–infant and father–infant attachment in a portuguese sample

In the present longitudinal study, we investigated attachment quality in Portuguese mother–infant and in father–infant dyads, and evaluated whether attachment quality was related to parental sensitivity during parent–infant social interaction or to the amount of time each parent spent with the infant during play and in routine caregiving activities (e.g., feeding, bathing, play). The sample consisted of 82 healthy full-term infants (30 girls, 53 boys, 48 first born), and their mothers and fathers from mostly middle-class households. To assess parental sensitivity, mothers and fathers were independently observed during free play interactions with their infants when infants were 9 and 15 months old. The videotaped interactions were scored by masked coders using the Crittenden’s CARE-Index. When infants were 12 and 18 months old, mother–infant and father–infant dyads were videotaped during an adaptation of Ainsworth’s Strange Situation. Parents also described their level of involvement in infant caregiving activities using a Portuguese version of the McBride and Mills Parent Responsibility Scale. Mothers were rated as being more sensitive than fathers during parent–infant free play at both 9 and 15 months. There also was a higher prevalence of secure attachment in mother–infant versus father–infant dyads at both 12 and 18 months. Attachment security was predicted by the amount of time mothers and fathers were involved in caregiving and play with the infant, and with parents’ behavior during parent–infant free play.

The venomous toadfish Thalassophryne nattereri (niquim or miquim): report of 43 injuries provoked in fishermen of Salinópolis (Pará State) and Aracaju (Sergipe State), Brazil

Fishes of family Batrachoididae are responsible for great number of injuries in fishermen in North and Northeast regions of Brazil. The genus Thalassophryne presents various venomous species of fishes found in the Brazilian coast, T. nattereri being the most common of them. The venom is ejected through two hollow spines on the dorsal fin and two on pre-opercular regions, which present a venomous gland in the base and can be erected or depressed by the fish. The manifestations of the envenoming were intense local pain, edema and erythema in 43 patients observed in Salinópolis (Pará State) and Aracaju (Sergipe State). There were no systemic manifestations, but necrosis was detected in eight and bacterial infection in ten injured fishermen. The circumstances of the contacts and therapeutic aspects are discussed. Envenoming by the genus Thalassophryne is important and frequent and should be considered of moderate severity grade, since there are not the excruciating pain or the massive local necrosis provoked by scorpionfishes (Scorpaena) or stingrays injuries nor the systemic manifestations that are the most important marker of severe envenoming.

The influence of burden of care and perceived stigma on expressed emotions of relatives of stable persons with schizophrenia in Nigerian semi-urban/urban settings

RESUMO: Schizophrenia’s burden defines experience of family members and is associated with high level of distress. Courtesy stigma, a distress concept, worsens caregivers’ burden of care and impacts on schizophrenia. Expressed emotion (EE), another family variable, impacts on schizophrenia. However, relationship between EE, burden of care and stigma has been little explored in western literature but not in sub-Saharan Africa particularly Nigeria. This study explored the impact of burden of care and courtesy stigma on EE among caregivers of persons with schizophrenia in urban and semi-urban settings in Nigeria. Fifty caregivers each from semi-urban and urban areas completed a socio-demographic schedule, family questionnaire, burden interview schedule and perceived devaluation and discrimination scale. The caregivers had a mean age of 42 (± 15.6) years. Majority were females (57%), married (49%), from Yoruba ethnic group (68%), monogamous family (73%) and Christians (82%). A higher proportion of the whole sample (53%) had tertiary education. Three out of ten were sole caregivers. Seventy three (73%) lived with the person they cared for. The average number of hours spent per week by a caregiver with a person with schizophrenia was 35 hours. The urban sample had significantly higher proportion of carers with high global expressed emotion (72.7%) than the semi-urban sample (27.3%). The odds of a caregiver in an urban setting exhibiting high expressed emotion are 4.202 times higher than the odds of caregiver in a semi-urban setting. Additionally, there was significance difference between the urban and semi-urban caregivers in discrimination dimension. High levels of subjective and objective burden were associated with high levels of critical comments. In conclusion, this study is the first demonstration of urban-semi-urban difference in expressed emotion in an African country and its findings provide further support to hypothesized relationship between components of EE and burden of care.

Developing clinical trials in the portuguese family medicine : challenges and opportunities in the European context

RESUMO: Introdução: A hipótese colocada nesta tese é a de que poderia haver um número bastante mais elevado de ensaios clínicos na medicina familiar portuguesa se os obstáculos fossem removidos e as oportunidades exploradas de modo adequado. Contexto: Em Portugal existe uma nova geração de Médicos de Família que está a assumir postos de trabalho um pouco por todo o país e que é aceite como sendo a mais bem preparada geração de sempre. Métodos: Busca na MEDLINE. Leitura de artigos na única publicação científica dedicada à Medicina Geral e Familiar – RPMGF. Consulta em livros portugueses de política da saúde e acerca do Plano Nacional de Saúde. O INFARMED foi contactado e relatórios seus sobre ensaios clínicos foram analisados. Os Médicos de Família portugueses foram contactados e convidados a responder a questionários. Além disso, quinze personalidades da Medicina Portuguesa foram chamadas a sugerir soluções. Resultados: De acordo com dados do INFARMED, de 2006 a 2011 houve apenas quatro centros de saúde envolvidos em ensaios clínicos. Em Portugal: Existe um número pouco significativo de ensaios académicos; Praticamente não há infraestruturas de suporte ou treino; Os registos clínicos eletrónicos são usados de forma ineficiente; a investigação é fracamente ligada às carreiras médicas; há isolamento interno e externo; a já complexa regulamentação da União Europeia é complicada ainda mais; há um subfinanciamento da Investigação Clínica. Os Médicos de Família portugueses estão disponíveis para participar ativamente numa mudança. Discussão: Com os presentes resultados o diagnóstico para a presente situação é claramente negativo. Felizmente existem muito boas oportunidades para melhorar. Conclusão/Recomendações: Tempo, dinheiro e apoio têm de ser fornecidos aos Médicos de Família portugueses. É nesse sentido que são fornecidas vinte recomendações para obter uma verdadeira mudança no panorama dos Ensaios Clínicos na Medicina Familiar portuguesa.-------------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The hypothesis of this thesis is that there could be a much greater number of Clinical Trials in Portuguese Family Medicine if obstacles were removed and opportunities explored properly. Background: In Portugal there is a new generation of Family Doctors that is assuming permanent positions all over the country and is accepted to be the most well prepared generation ever. Methods: Search on MEDLINE. Relevant articles were also identified in the only jornal dedicated to Portuguese Family Medicine, RPMGF. A search was made on Portuguese health policy textbooks and national health plan policy. INFARMED was also contacted and their reports about Clinical Trials were analysed. Portuguese Family Doctors themselves were contacted and invited to answer questionnaires. Besides that, fifteen key opinion leaders related to Portuguese Medicine were approached for solutions. Results: According to INFARMED data, from 2006 to 2011 there were only four health centres involved in clinical trials. In Portugal there is: A negligible number of academic trials; almost no support infrastructures or training; inefficiently used electronic health records; a research weakly linked to medical careers; an uninformed isolation internally and externally; an already complex European Union regulation that is compounded even more; Scarce funding for clinical research. Portuguese Family Doctors are keen to actively participate in a change. Discussion: With the present results the diagnosis for the current situation is clearly negative. Fortunately there are very good opportunities to improve. Conclusion/Recommendations: Time, money and support must be given to Portuguese Family Doctors. In this context, twenty recommendations are provided intending to promote a true change in Portuguese Family Medicine Clinical Trials panorama.

Burden experienced by families of patients with schizophrenia and its related factors

RESUMO: Objetivo: Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a carga dos cuidadores de doentes com Esquizofrenia e avaliar a correlação com determinadas características demográficas dos doentes e dos cuidadores, assim como com o nível de emoção expressa na família. Métodos: Este estudo descritivo-analítico foi realizado em 172 doentes com Esquizofrenia e seus cuidadores primários, que foram selecionados em ambulatório, a partir da consulta externa do Hospital Psiquiátrico em Teerão, no Irão, mediante uma amostra de conveniência. Os cuidadores foram entrevistados utilizando as escalas Zarit Burden Interview e Family Questionnaire, de forma a avaliar a sobrecarga sentida pelos cuidadores e o nível de emoção expressa na família, respectivamente. Os dados foram analisados por meio de testes de Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, e Spearman. Resultados: O nível de sobrecarga vivenciada pela maioria dos cuidadores primários foi moderada a grave. A pontuação obtida nas sub-escalas de comentários emocionais, envolvimento excessivo e comentários críticos foram maiores do que o ponto de corte em 51,7% e 64,5% dos cuidadores, respectivamente. Os resultados mostraram que as pontuações obtidas nas duas subescalas do questionário família tinham uma correlação significativa e direta com a carga experimentada pelos cuidadores. O nível de carga experimentada pelos cuidadores foi significativamente diferente entre os grupos de idade e estado civil dos cuidadores, e género, status ocupacional e estado civil dos doentes. O número de membros da família, as condições 5 de alojamento, o tempo gasto pelo cuidador com o paciente diariamente, o nível de renda familiar e a duração da doença afetaram significativamente o nível de carga experimentada pelo cuidador. Conclusão: Com base nos resultados, alguns fatores demográficos dos cuidadores, pacientes e seus familiares afetam significativamente a carga experimentada pelos cuidadores primários. A maioria das famílias dos pacientes têm alto nível de emoção expressa e existe uma significativa associação direta entre as emoções expressas e a carga experimentada.------------ABSTRACT: Aim: This study aimed to assess the burden experienced by the caregiver of patients with Schizophrenia, and evaluate its correlation with some demographic characteristics of patients, their caregivers, and the level of expressed emotion in the family. Methods: This descriptive-analytic study was conducted on 172 schizophrenic patients and their primary caregivers selected from the outpatient clinic of a mental hospital in Tehran, Iran using convenience sampling. Caregivers were evaluated with Zarit Burden Interview and Family Questionnaire to assess the burden experienced by the caregivers and the level of expressed emotion in the family, respectively. Data were analyzed using Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, and Spearman’s tests. Results: The level of burden experienced by the majority of primary caregivers was moderate to severe. The scores obtained in the subscales of emotional over-involvement and critical comments were higher than the cutoff point in 51.7% and 64.5% of caregivers respectively. The results showed that the scores obtained in the two subscales of family questionnaire had a significant, direct correlation with the burden experienced by the caregivers. The level of burden experienced by the caregivers was significantly different between the subgroups of age and marital status of the caregivers, and gender, occupational status and marital status of the patients. Number of family members, home ownership status, time spent by the caregiver with the patient daily, level of family income and duration of disorder significantly affected the level of burden experienced by the caregiver. Conclusion: Based on the results, some demographic factors of the primary caregivers, patients and their family significantly affect the burden experienced by the primary caregivers. Most of the families of patients have high expressed emotions and a significant, direct association exists between the expressed emotions and the burden experienced.

`When I'm sixty-four': old age, family values, and private financial transfers

Private financial transfers are becoming more and more important as ageing levels increase in Europe, with elders acting as both givers and receivers. Our study is divided in two main parts. In the first part we analyse the determinants of private financial transfers, using the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). In the second part we analyse the importance of family values for these transfers, combining SHARE with European Values Study. We show that family functions as the main agent of private transfers. We conclude that family values drive financial transfers, mainly gifts provided by elderly individuals. We find that receipts by old-aged people are more related with need cases, such as illness and poorness; moreover, for these particular cases, family network plays a very important role, working as a safety net.

Family relationship and parenting practices: a pathway to adolesents’ collectivist and individualist values?

Adolescents’ perceptions of parenting and family relationships are important variables for identifying mechanisms involved in how children acquire values and how these values are transmitted through families. In a sample of 515 adolescents, we investigated whether perceptions of the quality of parental practices would predict adolescents’ collectivist and individualist values. We hypothesized that perceived quality of family relations would mediate the relationship between the quality of parental practices and collectivist values but not of individualist values. The results of structural equation modeling suggested that perception of the quality of parental practices predicted adolescents’ both collectivist and individualist values. The predicted mediation effect was found for collectivist values, but not for individualist values. The results point to different functions of parenting and family relations on value acquisition. Implications for practice, such as the development and implementation of interventions to improve the formation of adolescents’ values by enhancing the quality of parenting and family relationships are discussed.

Family relationships and learning experiences in anxious vs. non-anxious families: Are there differences ?

L'objectif principal de ce travail était d'explorer les relations parent-enfant et les processus d'apprentissage familiaux associés aux troubles anxieux. A cet effet, des familles ayant un membre anxieux (la mère ou l'enfant) ont été comparées avec des familles n'ayant aucun membre anxieux. Dans une première étude, l'observation de l'interaction mère-enfant, pendant une situation standardisée de jeu, a révélé que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus susceptibles de se montrer verbalement contrôlantes, critiques et moins sensibles aux besoins de l'enfant, que les mères qui ne présentaient pas de trouble panique. Une deuxième étude a examiné les perceptions des différents membres de la famille quant aux relations au sein de la famille et a indiqué que, par comparaison aux adolescents non-anxieux, les adolescents anxieux étaient plus enclins à éprouver un sentiment d'autonomie individuelle diminué par rapport à leurs parents. Finalement, une troisième étude s'est intéressée à déterminer l'impact d'expériences d'apprentissage moins directes dans l'étiologie de l'anxiété. Les résultats ont indiqué que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus enclines à s'engager dans des comportements qui maintiennent la panique et à impliquer leurs enfants dans ces comportements, que les mères ne présentant pas de trouble panique. En se basant sur des recherches antérieures qui ont établi une relation entre le contrôle parental, la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant et les troubles anxieux, le présent travail non seulement confirme ce lien mais propose également un modèle pour résumer l'état actuel des connaissances concernant les processus familiaux et le développement des troubles anxieux. Deux routes ont été suggérées par lesquelles l'anxiété pourrait être transmise de manière intergénérationnelle. Chacune de ces routes attribue un rôle important à la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant. L'idée est que lorsque les enfants présentent une prédisposition à interpréter le comportement de leurs parents comme hors de leur contrôle, ils seraient plus enclins à développer de l'anxiété. A ce titre, la perception du contrôle représenterait un tampon entre le comportement de contrôle/surprotection des parents et le trouble anxieux chez l'enfant. - The principal objective of the present work was to explore parent-child relationships and family learning processes associated with anxiety disorders. To this purpose, families with and without an anxious family member (mother or child) were compared. In a first study, observation of mother-child interaction, during a standard play situation, revealed that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to display verbal control and criticism, and less likely to display sensitivity toward their children than mothers without panic disorder. A second study examined family members' perceptions of family relationships and indicated that compared to non-anxious adolescents, anxious adolescents were more prone to experience a diminished sense of individual autonomy in relation to their parents. Finally a third study was interested in determining the effect of less direct learning experiences in the aetiology of anxiety. Results indicated that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to engage in panic-maintaining behaviour and to involve their children in this behaviour than mothers without panic disorder. Based on previous research showing a relationship between parental control, children's perception of control, and anxiety disorders, the present work not only further adds evidence to support this link but also proposes a model summarizing the current knowledge concerning family processes and the development of anxiety disorders. Two pathways have been suggested through which anxiety may be intergenerationally transmitted. Both pathways assign an important role to children's perception of control. The idea is that whenever children have a predisposition towards interpreting their parents' behaviour as beyond of their control, they may be more prone to develop anxiety. As such, perceived control may represent a buffer between parental overcontrolling/overprotective behaviours and childhood anxiety disorder.

Reversible behavioural autistic-like regression: A manifestation of a special (new?) epileptic syndrome in a 28-month-old child. A 2-year longitudinal study .

A 28-month-old boy was referred for acute onset of abnormal head movements. History revealed an insidious progressive regression in behaviour and communication over several months. Head and shoulder 'spasms' with alteration of consciousness and on one occasion ictal laughter were seen. The electroencephalograph (EEG) showed repeated bursts of brief generalized polyspikes and spike-wave during the 'spasms', followed by flattening, a special pattern which never recurred after treatment. Review of family videos showed a single 'minor' identical seizure 6 months previously. Magnetic resonance imaging was normal. Clonazepam brought immediate cessation of seizures, normalization of the EEG and a parallel spectacular improvement in communication, mood and language. Follow-up over the next 10 months showed a new regression unaccompained by recognized seizures, although numerous seizures were discovered during the videotaped neuropsychological examination, when stereotyped subtle brief paroxysmal changes in posture and behaviour could be studied in slow motion and compared with the 'prototypical' initial ones. The EEG showed predominant rare left-sided fronto-temporal discharges. Clonazepam was changed to carbamazepin with marked improvement in behaviour, language and cognition which has been sustained up to the last control at 51 months. Videotaped home observations allowed the documentation of striking qualitative and quantitative variations in social interaction and play of autistic type in relation to the epileptic activity. We conclude that this child has a special characteristic epileptic syndrome with subtle motor and vegetative symptomatology associated with an insidious catastrophic 'autistic-like' regression which could be overlooked. The methods used to document such fluctuating epileptic behavioural manifestations are discussed.

How family caregivers' medical and moral assumptions influence decision making for patients in the vegetative state: a qualitative interview study.

Background Decisions on limiting life-sustaining treatment for patients in the vegetative state (VS) are emotionally and morally challenging. In Germany, doctors have to discuss, together with the legal surrogate (often a family member), whether the proposed treatment is in accordance with the patient's will. However, it is unknown whether family members of the patient in the VS actually base their decisions on the patient's wishes. Objective To examine the role of advance directives, orally expressed wishes, or the presumed will of patients in a VS for family caregivers' decisions on life-sustaining treatment. Methods and sample A qualitative interview study with 14 next of kin of patients in a VS in a long-term care setting was conducted; 13 participants were the patient's legal surrogates. Interviews were analysed according to qualitative content analysis. Results The majority of family caregivers said that they were aware of aforementioned wishes of the patient that could be applied to the VS condition, but did not base their decisions primarily on these wishes. They gave three reasons for this: (a) the expectation of clinical improvement, (b) the caregivers' definition of life-sustaining treatments and (c) the moral obligation not to harm the patient. If the patient's wishes were not known or not revealed, the caregivers interpreted a will to live into the patient's survival and non-verbal behaviour. Conclusions Whether or not prior treatment wishes of patients in a VS are respected depends on their applicability, and also on the medical assumptions and moral attitudes of the surrogates. We recommend repeated communication, support for the caregivers and advance care planning.

La médecine de famille en Suisse à l'horizon 2030: quelle place pour la délégation des tâches médicales. [Family practitioners in Switzerland by 2030: which roles for medical task delegation?]

Due to population aging, by 2030 Switzerland may face a demand of 24 million family practitioner visits, a growth of 13 percent from the 2005 level. This result is based on the assumption that the per capita demand for doctor visits remains what was observed in 2005 by age groups and sex. During the same period, the total number of practitioners may decrease by 14 percent whereas the female proportion of such practitioners may double. These changes may cause a 33 percent decrease in the supply of physician visits to reach only 14 millions. The comparison of the demand and supply of family doctor visits reveals that by 2030, 10 million visits may be unmet which represents 40 percent of the demand. On the supply side, a full scale implementation of task delegation may partially reduce that gap (minus 2 millions). On the demand side, improved health status may bring in a larger decrease in the needs for visits (minus 4 million).