Frailty and risk for heart failure in older adults: the health, aging, and body composition study

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the association between frailty and risk for heart failure (HF) in older adults. BACKGROUND Frailty is common in the elderly and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Impact of frailty on HF risk is not known. METHODS We assessed the association between frailty, using the Health ABC Short Physical Performance Battery (HABC Battery) and the Gill index, and incident HF in 2825 participants aged 70 to 79 years. RESULTS Mean age of participants was 74 ± 3 years; 48% were men and 59% were white. During a median follow up of 11.4 (7.1-11.7) years, 466 participants developed HF. Compared to non-frail participants, moderate (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.71) and severe frailty (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.47) by Gill index was associated with a higher risk for HF. HABC Battery score was linearly associated with HF risk after adjusting for the Health ABC HF Model (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36 per SD decrease in score) and remained significant when controlled for death as a competing risk (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.00-1.55). Results were comparable across age, sex, and race, and in sub-groups based on diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease at baseline. Addition of HABC Battery scores to the Health ABC HF Risk Model improved discrimination (change in C-index, 0.014; 95% CI 0.018-0.010) and appropriately reclassified 13.4% (net-reclassification-improvement 0.073, 95% CI 0.021-0.125; P = .006) of participants (8.3% who developed HF and 5.1% who did not). CONCLUSIONS Frailty is independently associated with risk of HF in older adults.

Obesity and overweight as a risk factor for pneumonia in polytrauma patients: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Obesity is a growing problem in western societies. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to determine the association between the overweight and obese polytrauma patients and pneumonia after injury. METHODS A total of 628 patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 16 or greater and 16 years or older were included in this retrospective study. The sample was subdivided into three groups as follows: body mass index (BMI) of less than 25 kg/m2; BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2; and BMI more than 30 kg/m2. The Murray score was assessed at admission and at its maximum during hospitalization to determine pulmonary problems. Pneumonia was defined as bacteriologically positive sputum with appropriate radiologic and laboratory changes (C-reactive protein and interleukin 6). Data are given as mean ± SEM. One-way analysis of variance and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used for the analyses, and the significance level was set at p < 0.05; Bonferroni-Dunn test was performed as post hoc analysis. RESULTS The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score for the thorax was 3.2 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2, 3.3 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2, and 2.8 ± 0.2 in the group with BMI of more than 30 kg/m2 (p = 0.044). The Murray score at admission was elevated with increasing BMI (0.8 ± 0.8 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 0.9 ± 0.9 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.0 ± 0.8 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.137); the maximum Murray score during hospitalization revealed significant differences (1.2 ± 0.9 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 1.6 ± 1.0 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.5 ± 0.9 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.001). The incidence of pneumonia also increased with increasing BMI (1.6% for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 2.0% for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 3.1% for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.044). CONCLUSION Obesity leads to an increased incidence of pneumonia in a polytrauma situation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic/epidemiologic study, level IV.

The risk of early mortality of polytrauma patients associated to ISS, NISS, APACHE II values and prothrombin time

BACKGROUND: The early hemodynamic normalization of polytrauma patients may lead to better survival outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic quality of trauma and physiological scores from widely used scoring systems in polytrauma patients. METHODS: In total, 770 patients with ISS > 16 who were admitted to a trauma center within the first 24 hours after injury were included in this retrospective study. The patients were subdivided into three groups: those who died on the day of admission, those who died within the first three days, and those who survived for longer than three days. ISS, NISS, APACHE II score, and prothrombin time were recorded at admission. RESULTS: The descriptive statistics for early death in polytrauma patients who died on the day of admission, 1--3 days after admission, and > 3 days after admission were: ISS of 41.0, 34.0, and 29.0, respectively; NISS of 50.0, 50.0, and 41.0, respectively; APACHE II score of 30.0, 25.0, and 15.0, respectively; and prothrombin time of 37.0%, 56.0%, and 84%, respectively. These data indicate that prothrombin time (AUC: 0.89) and APACHE II (AUC: 0.88) have the greatest prognostic utility for early death. CONCLUSION: The estimated densities of the scores may suggest a direction for resuscitative procedures in polytrauma patients.Trial registration: "Retrospektive Analysen in der Chirurgischen Intensivmedizin" StV01-2008.http://www.kek.zh.ch/internet/gesundheitsdirektion/kek/de/home.html.

Epidemiologic survey in Swiss group-housed breeding rabbits: extent of lesions and potential risk factors

In Switzerland, group-housing for breeding rabbit does is not explicitly required by law, but label programmes, as well as the general public and animal welfare groups, are advocating it. Although group-housing is of great benefit to the gregariously living rabbits, the establishment of a social hierarchy within the group might lead to stress and lesions. In the present epidemiological study, lesions were scored twice on 30% of the breeding does on all 28 commercial Swiss farms with group-housed breeding does. Additionally, a detailed questionnaire was filled out with all producers to determine risk factors potentially associated with lesions. Data were analysed using hierarchical proportional odds models. About 33% of the does examined had lesions, including wounds that were almost healed and small scratches. Severe lesions were counted on 9% of the animals. Differences between seasons in lesions score were identified, with the extent of lesions being higher in summer than in spring. Fewer lesions occurred on farms on which mastitis was more common. More lesions were found on farms where the does were isolated between littering and artificial insemination than on farms without isolation. According to the producers, most of the aggression occurred directly after the isolation phase when the does were regrouped again. We conclude that lesions in group-housed breeding does might be reduced by appropriate reproductive management.

Transesophageal echocardiography in cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: analysis of putative high-risk features from the risk of paradoxical embolism database

BACKGROUND Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is associated with cryptogenic stroke (CS), although the pathogenicity of a discovered PFO in the setting of CS is typically unclear. Transesophageal echocardiography features such as PFO size, associated hypermobile septum, and presence of a right-to-left shunt at rest have all been proposed as markers of risk. The association of these transesophageal echocardiography features with other markers of pathogenicity has not been examined. METHODS AND RESULTS We used a recently derived score based on clinical and neuroimaging features to stratify patients with PFO and CS by the probability that their stroke is PFO-attributable. We examined whether high-risk transesophageal echocardiography features are seen more frequently in patients more likely to have had a PFO-attributable stroke (n=637) compared with those less likely to have a PFO-attributable stroke (n=657). Large physiologic shunt size was not more frequently seen among those with probable PFO-attributable strokes (odds ratio [OR], 0.92; P=0.53). The presence of neither a hypermobile septum nor a right-to-left shunt at rest was detected more often in those with a probable PFO-attributable stroke (OR, 0.80; P=0.45; OR, 1.15; P=0.11, respectively). CONCLUSIONS We found no evidence that the proposed transesophageal echocardiography risk markers of large PFO size, hypermobile septum, and presence of right-to-left shunt at rest are associated with clinical features suggesting that a CS is PFO-attributable. Additional tools to describe PFOs may be useful in helping to determine whether an observed PFO is incidental or pathogenically related to CS.

Effects of zoledronate versus placebo on spine bone mineral density and microarchitecture assessed by the trabecular bone score in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: a three-year study

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitectural texture calculated from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans of the lumbar spine (LS) that predicts fracture risk, independent of bone mineral density (BMD). The aim of this study was to compare the effects of yearly intravenous zoledronate (ZOL) versus placebo (PLB) on LS BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Changes in TBS were assessed in the subset of 107 patients recruited at the Department of Osteoporosis of the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, who were included in the HORIZON trial. All subjects received adequate calcium and vitamin D3. In these patients randomly assigned to either ZOL (n = 54) or PLB (n = 53) for 3 years, BMD was measured by DXA and TBS assessed by TBS iNsight (v1.9) at baseline and 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after treatment initiation. Baseline characteristics (mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age, 76.8 ± 5.0 years; body mass index (BMI), 24.5 ± 3.6 kg/m(2) ; TBS, 1.178 ± 0.1 but for LS T-score (ZOL-2.9 ± 1.5 versus PLB-2.1 ± 1.5). Changes in LS BMD were significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB at all time points (p < 0.0001 for all), reaching +9.58% versus +1.38% at month 36. Change in TBS was significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB as of month 24, reaching +1.41 versus-0.49% at month 36; p = 0.031, respectively. LS BMD and TBS were weakly correlated (r = 0.20) and there were no correlations between changes in BMD and TBS from baseline at any visit. In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, once-yearly intravenous ZOL therapy significantly increased LS BMD relative to PLB over 3 years and TBS as of 2 years.

Outcome of standard and high-risk patients with acute anterior circulation stroke after stent retriever thrombectomy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Stent retrievers have become an important tool for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke. The aim of this study was to analyze outcome and complications in a large cohort of patients with stroke treated with the Solitaire stent retriever. The study also included patients who did not meet standard inclusion criteria for endovascular treatment: low or high baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, ≥80 years of age, extensive ischemic signs in middle cerebral artery territory, and time from symptom onset to endovascular intervention>8 hours. METHODS Consecutive patients with acute anterior circulation stroke treated with the Solitaire FR were analyzed. Data on characteristics of endovascular interventions, complications, and clinical outcome were collected prospectively. Patients who met standard inclusion criteria were compared with those who did not. RESULTS A total of 227 patients were included. Mean age was 68.2±14.7 years, and median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission was 16 (range, 2-36). Reperfusion was successful (thrombolysis in cerebral infarction, 2b-3) in 70.9%. Outcome was favorable (modified Rankin Scale, 0-2) in 57.7% of patients who met standard inclusion criteria and 30.3% of those who did not. The rates for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage were 3.7% and 13.1%, for death 11.4% and 33.8%, and for symptomatic intraprocedural complications 2.5% and 4.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Patients<80 years of age, without extensive pretreatment ischemic signs, and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score≤30 had high rates of favorable outcome and low periprocedural complication rates after Solitaire thrombectomy. Successful reperfusion was also common in patients not fulfilling standard inclusion criteria, but worse clinical outcomes warrant further research with a special focus on optimal patient selection.

Microstructural Parameters of Bone Evaluated Using HR-pQCT Correlate with the DXA-Derived Cortical Index and the Trabecular Bone Score in a Cohort of Randomly Selected Premenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND Areal bone mineral density is predictive for fracture risk. Microstructural bone parameters evaluated at the appendicular skeleton by high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) display differences between healthy patients and fracture patients. With the simple geometry of the cortex at the distal tibial diaphysis, a cortical index of the tibia combining material and mechanical properties correlated highly with bone strength ex vivo. The trabecular bone score derived from the scan of the lumbar spine by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) correlated ex vivo with the micro architectural parameters. It is unknown if these microstructural correlations could be made in healthy premenopausal women. METHODS Randomly selected women between 20-40 years of age were examined by DXA and HR-pQCT at the standard regions of interest and at customized sub regions to focus on cortical and trabecular parameters of strength separately. For cortical strength, at the distal tibia the volumetric cortical index was calculated directly from HR-pQCT and the areal cortical index was derived from the DXA scan using a Canny threshold-based tool. For trabecular strength, the trabecular bone score was calculated based on the DXA scan of the lumbar spine and was compared with the corresponding parameters derived from the HR-pQCT measurements at radius and tibia. RESULTS Seventy-two healthy women were included (average age 33.8 years, average BMI 23.2 kg/m(2)). The areal cortical index correlated highly with the volumetric cortical index at the distal tibia (R  =  0.798). The trabecular bone score correlated moderately with the microstructural parameters of the trabecular bone. CONCLUSION This study in randomly selected premenopausal women demonstrated that microstructural parameters of the bone evaluated by HR-pQCT correlated with the DXA derived parameters of skeletal regions containing predominantly cortical or cancellous bone. Whether these indexes are suitable for better predictions of the fracture risk deserves further investigation.

Vancomycin: Predictive risk factors for nephrotoxicity and implication for monitoring

The increased use of vancomycin in hospitals has resulted in a standard practice to monitor serum vancomycin levels because of possible nephrotoxicity. However, the routine monitoring of vancomycin serum concentration is under criticism and the cost effectiveness of such routine monitoring is in question because frequent monitoring neither results in increase efficacy nor decrease nephrotoxicity. The purpose of the present study is to determine factors that may place patients at increased risk of developing vancomycin induced nephrotoxicity and for whom monitoring may be most beneficial.^ From September to December 1992, 752 consecutive in patients at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, were prospectively evaluated for nephrotoxicity in order to describe predictive risk factors for developing vancomycin related nephrotoxicity. Ninety-five patients (13 percent) developed nephrotoxicity. A total of 299 patients (40 percent) were considered monitored (vancomycin serum levels determined during the course of therapy), and 346 patients (46 percent) were receiving concurrent moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs.^ Factors that were found to be significantly associated with nephrotoxicity in univariate analysis were: gender, base serum creatinine greater than 1.5mg/dl, monitor, leukemia, concurrent moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs, and APACHE III scores of 40 or more. Significant factors in the univariate analysis were then entered into a stepwise logistic regression analysis to determine independent predictive risk factors for vancomycin induced nephrotoxicity.^ Factors, with their corresponding odds ratios and 95% confidence limits, selected by stepwise logistic regression analysis to be predictive of vancomycin induced nephrotoxicity were: Concurrent therapy with moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs (2.89; 1.76-4.74), APACHE III scores of 40 or more (1.98; 1.16-3.38), and male gender (1.98; 1.04-2.71).^ Subgroup (monitor and non-monitor) analysis showed that male (OR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.01, 3.45) and moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs (OR = 4.58; 95% CI = 2.11, 9.94) were significant for nephrotoxicity in monitored patients. However, only APACHE III score (OR = 2.67; 95% CI = 1.13,6.29) was significant for nephrotoxicity in non-monitored patients.^ The conclusion drawn from this study is that not every patient receiving vancomycin therapy needs frequent monitoring of vancomycin serum levels. Such routine monitoring may be appropriate in patients with one or more of the identified risk factors and low risk patients do not need to be subjected to the discomfort and added cost of multiple blood sampling. Such prudent selection of patients to monitor may decrease cost to patients and hospital. ^

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Mexican-American children from parental risk factors, and social and demographic characteristics in the HHANES

Objectives. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) including CVD secondary to diabetes type II, a significant health problem among Mexican American populations, originates in early childhood. This study seeks to determine risk factors available to the health practitioner that can identify the child at potential risk of developing CVD, thereby enabling early intervention. ^ Design. This is a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data of matched Mexican American parents and children selected from the HHANES, 1982–1984. ^ Methods. Parents at high risk for CVD were identified based on medical history, and clinical and physical findings. Factor analysis was performed on children's skinfold thicknesses, height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures, in order to produce a limited number of uncorrelated child CVD risk factors. Multiple regression analyses were then performed to determine other CVD markers associated with these Factors, independently for mothers and fathers. ^ Results. Factor analysis of children's measurements revealed three uncorrelated latent variables summarizing the children's CVD risk: Factor1: ‘Fatness’, Factor2: ‘Size and Maturity’, and Factor3: ‘Blood Pressure’, together accounting for the bulk of variation in children's measurements (86–89%). Univariate analyses showed that children from high CVD risk families did not differ from children of low risk families in occurrence of high blood pressure, overweight, biological maturity, acculturation score, or social and economic indicators. However, multiple regression using the factor scores (from factor analysis) as dependent variables, revealed that higher CVD risk in parents, was significantly associated with increased fatness and increased blood pressure in the children. Father's CVD risk status was associated with higher levels of body fat in his children and higher levels of blood pressure in sons. Mother's CVD risk status was associated with higher blood pressure levels in children, and occurrence of obesity in the mother associated with higher fatness levels in her children. ^ Conclusion. Occurrence of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in parents of Mexican American children, may be used to identify children at potentially higher risk for developing CV disease in the future. Obesity in mothers appears to be an important marker for the development of higher levels of body fatness in children. ^

Coronary artery disease severity and aortic stenosis: clinical outcomes according to SYNTAX score in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

AIM The aim of this study was to evaluate whether coronary artery disease (CAD) severity exerts a gradient of risk in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 445 patients with severe AS undergoing TAVI were included into a prospective registry between 2007 and 2012. The preoperative SYNTAX score (SS) was determined from baseline coronary angiograms. In case of revascularization prior to TAVI, residual SS (rSS) was also determined. Clinical outcomes were compared between patients without CAD (n = 158), patients with low SS (0-22, n = 207), and patients with high SS (SS >22, n = 80). The pre-specified primary endpoint was the composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction (MI). At 1 year, CAD severity was associated with higher rates of the primary endpoint (no CAD: 12.5%, low SS: 16.1%, high SS: 29.6%; P = 0.016). This was driven by differences in cardiovascular mortality (no CAD: 8.6%, low SS: 13.6%, high SS: 20.4%; P = 0.029), whereas the risk of stroke (no CAD: 5.1%, low SS: 3.3%, high SS: 6.7%; P = 0.79) and MI (no CAD: 1.5%, low SS: 1.1%, high SS: 4.0%; P = 0.54) was similar across the three groups. Patients with high SS received less complete revascularization as indicated by a higher rSS (21.2 ± 12.0 vs. 4.0 ± 4.4, P < 0.001) compared with patients with low SS. High rSS tertile (>14) was associated with higher rates of the primary endpoint at 1 year (no CAD: 12.5%, low rSS: 16.5%, high rSS: 26.3%, P = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS Severity of CAD appears to be associated with impaired clinical outcomes at 1 year after TAVI. Patients with SS >22 receive less complete revascularization and have a higher risk of cardiovascular death, stroke, or MI than patients without CAD or low SS.

Influenza vaccination and cardiovascular risk in patients with recent TIA and stroke

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether current influenza vaccination is associated with reduced risk of major vascular events in patients with recent ischemic stroke or TIA of mainly atherothrombotic origin. METHODS: Data were pooled from 2 prospective cohort studies, the OPTIC Registry (n = 3,635) and the AMISTAD Study (n = 618), and from the randomized PERFORM Trial (n = 19,120), all of which included patients with recent ischemic stroke or TIA. Influenza vaccination status was determined in 23,110 patients. The primary outcome was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or vascular death up to 2 years. Secondary outcomes were myocardial infarction and stroke separately. RESULTS: Influenza vaccination had no association with the primary outcome in the propensity score-matched cohort (hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-1.11; p = 0.67) or in the propensity score-adjusted cohort (hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.89-1.12; p = 0.99). Similarly, the risk of stroke and myocardial infarction did not differ between the vaccinated group and the unvaccinated group; in the matched cohort, the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI 0.88-1.17; p = 0.89) for stroke and 0.84 (95% CI 0.59-1.18; p = 0.30) for myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination was not associated with reduced outcome events in patients with recent atherothrombotic ischemic stroke after considering all baseline characteristics (including concomitant medications) associated with influenza vaccination.

Novel genetic markers associate with atrial fibrillation risk in Europeans and Japanese

OBJECTIVES This study sought to identify nonredundant atrial fibrillation (AF) genetic susceptibility signals and examine their cumulative relations with AF risk. BACKGROUND AF-associated loci span broad genomic regions that may contain multiple susceptibility signals. Whether multiple signals exist at AF loci has not been systematically explored. METHODS We performed association testing conditioned on the most significant, independently associated genetic markers at 9 established AF loci using 2 complementary techniques in 64,683 individuals of European ancestry (3,869 incident and 3,302 prevalent AF cases). Genetic risk scores were created and tested for association with AF in Europeans and an independent sample of 11,309 individuals of Japanese ancestry (7,916 prevalent AF cases). RESULTS We observed at least 4 distinct AF susceptibility signals on chromosome 4q25 upstream of PITX2, but not at the remaining 8 AF loci. A multilocus score comprised 12 genetic markers demonstrated an estimated 5-fold gradient in AF risk. We observed a similar spectrum of risk associated with these markers in Japanese. Regions containing AF signals on chromosome 4q25 displayed a greater degree of evolutionary conservation than the remainder of the locus, suggesting that they may tag regulatory elements. CONCLUSIONS The chromosome 4q25 AF locus is architecturally complex and harbors at least 4 AF susceptibility signals in individuals of European ancestry. Similar polygenic AF susceptibility exists between Europeans and Japanese. Future work is necessary to identify causal variants, determine mechanisms by which associated loci predispose to AF, and explore whether AF susceptibility signals classify individuals at risk for AF and related morbidity.

Drug-eluting stents vs. bare metal stents in patients with cardiogenic shock: a comparison by propensity score analysis.

BACKGROUND In patients with cardiogenic shock, data on the comparative safety and efficacy of drug-eluting stents (DESs) vs. bare metal stents (BMSs) are lacking. We sought to assess the performance of DESs compared with BMSs among patients with cardiogenic shock undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS Out of 236 patients with acute coronary syndromes complicated by cardiogenic shock, 203 were included in the final analysis. The primary endpoint included death, and the secondary endpoint of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) included the composite of death, myocardial infarction, any repeat revascularization and stroke. Patients were followed for a minimum of 30 days and up to 4 years. As stent assignment was not random, we performed a propensity score analysis to minimize potential bias. RESULTS Among patients treated with DESs, there was a lower risk of the primary and secondary endpoints compared with BMSs at 30 days (29 vs. 56%, P < 0.001; 34 vs. 58%, P = 0.001, respectively) and during long-term follow-up [hazard ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29-0.65, P < 0.001; hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.34-0.71, P < 0.001, respectively]. After propensity score adjustment, all-cause mortality was reduced among patients treated with DESs compared with BMSs both at 30 days [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.62; P = 0.002] and during long-term follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.22-0.72; P = 0.002). The rate of MACCE was lower among patients treated with DESs compared with those treated with BMSs at 30 days (adjusted OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.19-0.95; P = 0.036). The difference in MACCEs between devices approached significance during long-term follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.34-1.01; P = 0.052). CONCLUSION DESs appear to be associated with improved clinical outcomes, including a reduction in all-cause mortality compared with BMSs among patients undergoing PCI for cardiogenic shock, possibly because of a pacification of the infarct-related artery by anti-inflammatory drug. The results of this observational study require confirmation in an appropriately powered randomized trial.

Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.