Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

An earthquake of magnitude M and linear source dimension L(M) is preceded within a few years by certain patterns of seismicity in the magnitude range down to about (M - 3) in an area of linear dimension about 5L-10L. Prediction algorithms based on such patterns may allow one to predict approximately 80% of strong earthquakes with alarms occupying altogether 20-30% of the time-space considered. An area of alarm can be narrowed down to 2L-3L when observations include lower magnitudes, down to about (M - 4). In spite of their limited accuracy, such predictions open a possibility to prevent considerable damage. The following findings may provide for further development of prediction methods: (i) long-range correlations in fault system dynamics and accordingly large size of the areas over which different observed fields could be averaged and analyzed jointly, (ii) specific symptoms of an approaching strong earthquake, (iii) the partial similarity of these symptoms worldwide, (iv) the fact that some of them are not Earth specific: we probably encountered in seismicity the symptoms of instability common for a wide class of nonlinear systems.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.

Probes of the inner jets of blazars.

I review models for the "inner jet" in blazars, the section that connects the central engine with the radio jet. I discuss how the structure and physics of the inner jet can be explored using millimeter-wave VLBI (very-long-baseline radio interferometry) as well as multiwaveband observations of blazars. Flares at radio to gamma-ray frequencies should exhibit time delays at different wavebands that can test models for both the high-energy emission mechanisms and the nature of the inner jet in blazars.

Pathways to quiescence: SHARDS view on the star formation histories of massive quiescent galaxies at 1.0 < z < 1.5

We present star formation histories (SFHs) for a sample of 104 massive (stellar mass M > 10^10 M_⊙) quiescent galaxies (MQGs) at z = 1.0–1.5 from the analysis of spectrophotometric data from the Survey for High-z Absorption Red and Dead Sources (SHARDS) and HST/WFC3 G102 and G141 surveys of the GOODS-North field, jointly with broad-band observations from ultraviolet (UV) to far-infrared (far-IR). The sample is constructed on the basis of rest-frame UVJ colours and specific star formation rates (sSFRs = SFR/Mass). The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of each galaxy are compared to models assuming a delayed exponentially declining SFH. A Monte Carlo algorithm characterizes the degeneracies, which we are able to break taking advantage of the SHARDS data resolution, by measuring indices such as MgUV and D4000. The population of MQGs shows a duality in their properties. The sample is dominated (85 per cent) by galaxies with young mass-weighted ages, t_M t_M < 2 Gyr, short star formation time-scales, 〈τ〉 ∼ 60–200 Myr, and masses log(M/M_⊙) ∼ 10.5. There is an older population (15 per cent) with t_M t_M = 2–4 Gyr, longer star formation time-scales, 〈τ〉∼ 400 Myr, and larger masses, log(M/M_⊙) ∼ 10.7. The SFHs of our MQGs are consistent with the slope and the location of the main sequence of star-forming galaxies at z > 1.0, when our galaxies were 0.5–1.0 Gyr old. According to these SFHs, all the MQGs experienced a luminous infrared galaxy phase that lasts for ∼500 Myr, and half of them an ultraluminous infrared galaxy phase for ∼100 Myr. We find that the MQG population is almost assembled at z ∼ 1, and continues evolving passively with few additions to the population.

Time course modifications in organotypic culture of human neuroretina

The purpose of this study was to characterize organ culture of human neuroretina and to establish survival and early degeneration patterns of neural and glial cells. Sixteen neuroretina explants were prepared from 2 postmortem eyes of 2 individuals. Four explants were used as fresh retina controls, and 12 were evaluated at 3, 6, and 9 days of culture. Neuroretina explants (5 × 5 mm) were cultured in Transwell® dishes with the photoreceptor layer facing the supporting membrane. Culture medium (Neurobasal A-based) was maintained in contact with the membrane beneath the explant. Cryostat and ultrathin sections were prepared for immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy. Neuroretinal modifications were evaluated after toluidine blue staining and after immunostaining for neuronal and glial cell markers. Ultrastructural changes were analyzed by electron microscopy. From 0 to 9 days in culture, there was progressive retinal degeneration, including early pyknosis of photoreceptor nuclei, cellular vacuolization in the ganglion cell layer, decrease of both plexiform layer thicknesses, disruption and truncation of photoreceptor outer segments (OS), and marked reduction in the number of nuclei at both nuclear layers where the cells were less densely packed. At 3 days there was swelling of cone OS with impairment of pedicles, loss of axons and dendrites of horizontal and rod bipolar cells that stained for calbindin (CB) and protein kinase C (PKC-α), respectively. After 9 days, horizontal cells were pyknotic and without terminal tips. There were similar degenerative processes in the outer plexiform layer for rod bipolar cells and loss of axon terminal lateral varicosities in the inner plexiform layer. Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) staining did not reveal a dramatic increase of gliosis in Müller cells. However, some Müller cells were CB immunoreactive at 6 days of culture. Over 9 days of culture, human neuroretina explants underwent morphological changes in photoreceptors, particularly the OS and axon terminals, and in postsynaptic horizontal and bipolar cells. These early changes, not previously described in cultured human samples, reproduce some celullar modifications after retinal damage. Thus, this model may be suitable to evaluate therapeutic agents during retinal degeneration processes.

A methodology for evacuation route planning inside buildings using geospatial technology

Evacuation route planning is a fundamental task for building engineering projects. Safety regulations are established so that all occupants are driven on time out of a building to a secure place when faced with an emergency situation. As an example, Spanish building code requires the planning of evacuation routes on large and, usually, public buildings. Engineers often plan these routes on single building projects, repeatedly assigning clusters of rooms to each emergency exit in a trial-and-error process. But problems may arise for a building complex where distribution and use changes make visual analysis cumbersome and sometimes unfeasible. This problem could be solved by using well-known spatial analysis techniques, implemented as a specialized software able to partially emulate engineer reasoning. In this paper we propose and test an easily reproducible methodology that makes use of free and open source software components for solving a case study. We ran a complete test on a building floor at the University of Alicante (Spain). This institution offers a web service (WFS) that allows retrieval of 2D geometries from any building within its campus. We demonstrate how geospatial technologies and computational geometry algorithms can be used for automating the creation and optimization of evacuation routes. In our case study, the engineers’ task is to verify that the load capacity of each emergency exit does not exceed the standards specified by Spain’s current regulations. Using Dijkstra’s algorithm, we obtain the shortest paths from every room to the most appropriate emergency exit. Once these paths are calculated, engineers can run simulations and validate, based on path statistics, different cluster configurations. Techniques and tools applied in this research would be helpful in the design and risk management phases of any complex building project.

A first approach to earthquake damage estimation in Haiti: advices to minimize the seismic risk

This study is in the frame of the cooperative line that several Spanish Universities and other foreign partners started with the Haitian government in 2010. According to our studies (Benito et al. in An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, Russia, 2012) and recent scientific literature, the earthquake hazard in Haiti remains high (Calais et al. in Nat Geosci 3:794–799, 2010). In view of this, we wonder whether the country is currently ready to face another earthquake. In this sense, we estimated several damage scenarios in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien associated to realistic possible major earthquakes. Our findings show that almost 50 % of the building stock of both cities would result uninhabitable due to structural damage. Around 80 % of the buildings in both cities have reinforced concrete structure with concrete block infill; however, the presence of masonry buildings becomes significant (between 25 and 45 % of the reinforced concrete buildings) in rural areas and informal settlements on the outskirts, where the estimated damage is higher. The influence of the soil effect on the damage spatial distribution is evident in both cities. We have found that the percentage of uninhabitable buildings in soft soil areas may be double the percentage obtained in nearby districts located in hard soil. These results reveal that a new seismic catastrophe of similar or even greater consequences than the 2010 Haiti earthquake might happen if the earthquake resilience is not improved in the country. Nowadays, the design of prevention actions and mitigation policies is the best instrument the society has to face seismic risk. In this sense, the results of this research might contribute to define measures oriented to earthquake risk reduction in Haiti, which should be a real priority for national and international institutions.

How to measure healthiness in buildings: Experiences in teaching with BIM tools

Introducing teaching about healthy solutions in buildings and BIM has been a challenge for the University of Alicante. Teaching attached to very tighten study plans conditioned the types of methods that could be used in the past. The worldwide situation of crisis that especially reached Spain and the bursting of the housing bubble generated a lack of employment that reached universities where careers related to construction, Architecture and Architectural Technologist, suffered a huge reduction in the number of students enrolled. In the case of the University of Alicante, students’ enrolment for Architectural Technology reached an 80% reduction. The necessity of a reaction against this situation made the teachers be innovative and use the new Bologna adapted study plans to develop new teaching experiences introducing new concepts: people wellbeing in buildings and BIM. Working with healthy solutions in buildings provided new approaches for building design and construction as an alternative to sustainability. For many years sustainability was the concept that applied to housing gave buildings an added value and the possibility of having viability in a very complex scenario. But after lots of experiences, the approved methodologies for obtaining sustainable housing were ambiguous and at the end, investors, designers, constructors and purchasers cannot find real and validated criteria for obtaining an effective sustainable house. It was the moment to work with new ideas and concepts and start facing buildings from the users’ point of view. At the same time the development of new tools, BIM, has opened a wide range of opportunities, innovative and suggestive, that allows simulation and evaluation of many building factors. This paper describes the research in teaching developed by the University of Alicante to adapt the current study plans, introducing work with healthy solutions in buildings and the use of BIM, with the aim of attracting students by improving their future employability. Pilot experiences have been carried out in different subjects based on the work with projects and case studies under an international frame with the cooperation of different European partner universities. The use of BIM tools, introduced in 2014, solved the problems that appeared in some subjects, mainly building construction, and helped with the evaluation of some healthy concepts that presented difficulties until this moment as knowledge acquired by the students was hard to be evaluated. The introduction of BIM tools: Vasari, FormIt, Revit and Light Control among others, allowed the study of precise healthy concepts and provided the students a real understand of how these different parameters can condition a healthy architectural space. The analysis of the results showed a clear acceptance by the students and gave teachers the possibility of opening new research lines. At the same time, working with BIM tools to obtain healthy solutions in building has been a good option to improve students’ employability as building market in Spain is increasing the number of specialists in BIM with a wider knowledge.

Rehabilitating, repairing and restoring against demolishing, tearing down and destroying: the recovery of the military fort for the Santa Pola town museum

This communication develops the process of interventions of the Renaissance fortress of a new plant built in 1554–57 in Santa Pola. It is one of the earliest examples built with reference to military architecture theoretical treaties (XV–XVI) and best preserved. The study runs its own story from its initial military use, through the use of civil equipment until the final cultural and Museum Center. First, the project of Italian origin is examined and its use as barracks for troops for a duration of three centuries (1557–1850), pointing out the architectural constants of war machinery in a defense position and its origin as a rainwater collector and cistern: a perfect square with two bastions in which a plan of the uprising is preserved (1778). Secondly, we study the changes in the mentioned architecture throughout a century and a half (1850–1990) after its change of ownership (from the state to the municipality), and as a result of the new use as a city hall and public endowment: a market and health and leisure centre, which meant the demolition of defensive elements and the opening up to the outside of the inner parade ground. And thirdly, the new transfer of the municipal offices brings in the beginning of a project of transformations (1990–2015) that retrieves the demolished elements at the same time as it assigns the entire fort for a cultural centre: exhibition, research and history museum, promoting the identity between the citizens and the building which stands in the foundations of their city. The conclusions take us through an interesting route that goes from the approach of defensive tactics, its use as administrative headquarters to the current cultural policy of preservation. In addition, all the known plans of the fort are recovered (of military, civil and cultural use), some unpublished, as well as the project of the North wing that has guided the last operation and which has been set as a pattern of reference.

Puesta en valor de la arquitectura moderna residencial post-terremoto de 1944. San Juan – Argentina

La ciudad y su arquitectura testimonian las culturas que modelan y remodelan sus formas y espacios en el tiempo. Toda comunidad tiene derecho a un ambiente urbano apto para el desarrollo humano sustentable. Desarrollo sustentable, es aquel que asegura la satisfacción de las necesidades del presente, sin comprometer los recursos con que generaciones futuras puedan satisfacer las propias (Naciones Unidas, 1987). Significa el uso racional y responsable de toda clase de recursos, especialmente los no renovables, como el patrimonio arquitectónico. La ciudad de San Juan fue reconstruida bajo influencias de los postulados del Movimiento Moderno tras el terremoto de 1944 que destruyó casi la totalidad de sus edificios patrimoniales. La arquitectura moderna es considerada internacionalmente un patrimonio a legar a las generaciones futuras. En San Juan, las obras residenciales modernas corren el riesgo de ser transformadas o demolidas ante un posible reemplazo por nuevas obras más redituables, por la dinámica del desarrollo urbano y la ausencia de protección que preserve este patrimonio. Es objetivo de este trabajo promover el reconocimiento, valoración y protección, de obras patrimoniales residenciales, exponentes de la modernidad arquitectónica local.

Account of time spent on College jobb, April 1813-1816

Sewn volume detailing the hours worked possibly by a carpenter or mason during the construction of University Hall. In addition to time worked, daily entries log the workmen employed on the project and the tasks completed in each room of University Hall. The back cover has several small drawings and illustrations inscribed with the year 1816.

Manhattan, New York, N.Y., 1844 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the city of New York with the adjacent cities of Brooklyn and Jersey City, and the village of Williamsburg, drawn & engraved by Story & Atwood. It was published by H. Phelps in 1844. Scale [ca. 1:14,000]. Covers Manhattan below 32nd St. and portions of Brooklyn and Jersey City. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 18N NAD83 projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, city wards, fire districts, selected public buildings, ferry lines, wharves, radial distances from City Hall, and more. Includes insets: Jersey City -- Northern part of New York island. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.