STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR SIMULATING MAIZE YIELD

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment.

"Evaluating the model of classification and valuation of disabilities used in Brazil and defining the elaboration and adoption of a unique model for all the country": Brazilian Interministerial Workgroup Task

The President of Brazil established an Interministerial Work Group in order to “evaluate the model of classification and valuation of disabilities used in Brazil and to define the elaboration and adoption of a unique model for all the country”. Eight Ministries and/or Secretaries participated in the discussion over a period of 10 months, concluding that a proposed model should be based on the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Person with Disabilities, the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, and the ‘support theory’, and organizing a list of recommendations and necessary actions for a Classification, Evaluation and Certification Network with national coverage.

A simple model to estimate active flux in relation to zooplankton lunar cycles in subtropical waters

Máster en Oceanografía. Programa de Doctorado en Oceanografía

Dynamic identification of structures: experimental assessment of modal parameteres through methods in frequency domain, in time-frequency domain and model updating

Among the experimental methods commonly used to define the behaviour of a full scale system, dynamic tests are the most complete and efficient procedures. A dynamic test is an experimental process, which would define a set of characteristic parameters of the dynamic behaviour of the system, such as natural frequencies of the structure, mode shapes and the corresponding modal damping values associated. An assessment of these modal characteristics can be used both to verify the theoretical assumptions of the project, to monitor the performance of the structural system during its operational use. The thesis is structured in the following chapters: The first introductive chapter recalls some basic notions of dynamics of structure, focusing the discussion on the problem of systems with multiply degrees of freedom (MDOF), which can represent a generic real system under study, when it is excited with harmonic force or in free vibration. The second chapter is entirely centred on to the problem of dynamic identification process of a structure, if it is subjected to an experimental test in forced vibrations. It first describes the construction of FRF through classical FFT of the recorded signal. A different method, also in the frequency domain, is subsequently introduced; it allows accurately to compute the FRF using the geometric characteristics of the ellipse that represents the direct input-output comparison. The two methods are compared and then the attention is focused on some advantages of the proposed methodology. The third chapter focuses on the study of real structures when they are subjected to experimental test, where the force is not known, like in an ambient or impact test. In this analysis we decided to use the CWT, which allows a simultaneous investigation in the time and frequency domain of a generic signal x(t). The CWT is first introduced to process free oscillations, with excellent results both in terms of frequencies, dampings and vibration modes. The application in the case of ambient vibrations defines accurate modal parameters of the system, although on the damping some important observations should be made. The fourth chapter is still on the problem of post processing data acquired after a vibration test, but this time through the application of discrete wavelet transform (DWT). In the first part the results obtained by the DWT are compared with those obtained by the application of CWT. Particular attention is given to the use of DWT as a tool for filtering the recorded signal, in fact in case of ambient vibrations the signals are often affected by the presence of a significant level of noise. The fifth chapter focuses on another important aspect of the identification process: the model updating. In this chapter, starting from the modal parameters obtained from some environmental vibration tests, performed by the University of Porto in 2008 and the University of Sheffild on the Humber Bridge in England, a FE model of the bridge is defined, in order to define what type of model is able to capture more accurately the real dynamic behaviour of the bridge. The sixth chapter outlines the necessary conclusions of the presented research. They concern the application of a method in the frequency domain in order to evaluate the modal parameters of a structure and its advantages, the advantages in applying a procedure based on the use of wavelet transforms in the process of identification in tests with unknown input and finally the problem of 3D modeling of systems with many degrees of freedom and with different types of uncertainty.

Spectral-Element and Adjoint 3D Full-Wave Tomography for the Lithosphere of Central Italy

The primary objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the 3D velocity structure of the lithosphere in central Italy. To this end, I adopted the Spectral-Element Method to perform accurate numerical simulations of the complex wavefields generated by the 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila event and by its foreshocks and aftershocks together with some additional events within our target region. For the mainshock, the source was represented by a finite fault and different models for central Italy, both 1D and 3D, were tested. Surface topography, attenuation and Moho discontinuity were also accounted for. Three-component synthetic waveforms were compared to the corresponding recorded data. The results of these analyses show that 3D models, including all the known structural heterogeneities in the region, are essential to accurately reproduce waveform propagation. They allow to capture features of the seismograms, mainly related to topography or to low wavespeed areas, and, combined with a finite fault model, result into a favorable match between data and synthetics for frequencies up to ~0.5 Hz. We also obtained peak ground velocity maps, that provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment. The remaining differences between data and synthetics led us to take advantage of SEM combined with an adjoint method to iteratively improve the available 3D structure model for central Italy. A total of 63 events and 52 stations in the region were considered. We performed five iterations of the tomographic inversion, by calculating the misfit function gradient - necessary for the model update - from adjoint sensitivity kernels, constructed using only two simulations for each event. Our last updated model features a reduced traveltime misfit function and improved agreement between data and synthetics, although further iterations, as well as refined source solutions, are necessary to obtain a new reference 3D model for central Italy tomography.

New design of polyphenylene dendrimers for full-color light-emitting diodes

Dendritic systems, and in particular polyphenylene dendrimers, have recently attracted considerable attention from the synthetic organic chemistry community, as well as from photophysicists, particularly in view of the search for synthetic model analogies to photoelectric materials to fabricate organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), and even more advanced areas of research such as light-harvesting system, energy transfer and non-host device. Geometrically, dendrimers are unique systems that consist of a core, one or more dendrons, and surface groups. The different parts of the macromolecule can be selected to give the desired optoelectronic and processing properties. Compared to small molecular or polymeric light-emitting materials, these dendritic materials can combine the benefits of both previous classes. The high molecular weights of these dendritic macromolecules, as well as the surface groups often attached to the distal ends of the dendrons, can improve the solution processability, and thus can be deposited from solution by simple processes such as spin-coating and ink-jet printing. Moreover, even better than the traditional polymeric light-emitting materials, the well-defined monodisperse distributed dendrimers possess a high purity comparable to that of small molecules, and as such can be fabricated into high performance OLEDs. Most importantly, the emissive chromophores can be located at the core of the dendrimer, within the dendrons, and/or at the surface of the dendrimers because of their unique dendritic architectures. The different parts of the macromolecule can be selected to give the desired optoelectronic and processing properties. Therefore, the main goals of this thesis are the design and synthesis, characterization of novel functional dendrimers, e.g. polytriphenylene dendrimers for blue fluorescent, as well as iridium(III) complex cored polyphenylene dendrimers for green and red phosphorescent light emitting diodes. In additional to the above mentioned advantages of dendrimer based OLEDs, the modular molecular architecture and various functionalized units at different locations in polyphenylene dendrimers open up a tremendous scope for tuning a wide range of properties in addition to color, such as intermolecular interactions, charge mobility, quantum yield, and exciton diffusion. In conclusion, research into dendrimer containing OLEDs combines fundamental aspects of organic semiconductor physics, novel and highly sophisticated organic synthetic chemistry and elaborate device technology.rn

Palaeo wind system reconstruction of the last glacial period over Europe, using high resolution proxy data and model-data-comparison

The atmosphere is a global influence on the movement of heat and humidity between the continents, and thus significantly affects climate variability. Information about atmospheric circulation are of major importance for the understanding of different climatic conditions. Dust deposits from maar lakes and dry maars from the Eifel Volcanic Field (Germany) are therefore used as proxy data for the reconstruction of past aeolian dynamics.rnrnIn this thesis past two sediment cores from the Eifel region are examined: the core SM3 from Lake Schalkenmehren and the core DE3 from the Dehner dry maar. Both cores contain the tephra of the Laacher See eruption, which is dated to 12,900 before present. Taken together the cores cover the last 60,000 years: SM3 the Holocene and DE3 the marine isotope stages MIS-3 and MIS-2, respectively. The frequencies of glacial dust storm events and their paleo wind direction are detected by high resolution grain size and provenance analysis of the lake sediments. Therefore two different methods are applied: geochemical measurements of the sediment using µXRF-scanning and the particle analysis method RADIUS (rapid particle analysis of digital images by ultra-high-resolution scanning of thin sections).rnIt is shown that single dust layers in the lake sediment are characterized by an increased content of aeolian transported carbonate particles. The limestone-bearing Eifel-North-South zone is the most likely source for the carbonate rich aeolian dust in the lake sediments of the Dehner dry maar. The dry maar is located on the western side of the Eifel-North-South zone. Thus, carbonate rich aeolian sediment is most likely to be transported towards the Dehner dry maar within easterly winds. A methodology is developed which limits the detection to the aeolian transported carbonate particles in the sediment, the RADIUS-carbonate module.rnrnIn summary, during the marine isotope stage MIS-3 the storm frequency and the east wind frequency are both increased in comparison to MIS-2. These results leads to the suggestion that atmospheric circulation was affected by more turbulent conditions during MIS-3 in comparison to the more stable atmospheric circulation during the full glacial conditions of MIS-2.rnThe results of the investigations of the dust records are finally evaluated in relation a study of atmospheric general circulation models for a comprehensive interpretation. Here, AGCM experiments (ECHAM3 and ECHAM4) with different prescribed SST patterns are used to develop a synoptic interpretation of long-persisting east wind conditions and of east wind storm events, which are suggested to lead to an enhanced accumulation of sediment being transported by easterly winds to the proxy site of the Dehner dry maar.rnrnThe basic observations made on the proxy record are also illustrated in the 10 m-wind vectors in the different model experiments under glacial conditions with different prescribed sea surface temperature patterns. Furthermore, the analysis of long-persisting east wind conditions in the AGCM data shows a stronger seasonality under glacial conditions: all the different experiments are characterized by an increase of the relative importance of the LEWIC during spring and summer. The different glacial experiments consistently show a shift from a long-lasting high over the Baltic Sea towards the NW, directly above the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, together with contemporary enhanced westerly circulation over the North Atlantic.rnrnThis thesis is a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns during the last glacial period. It has been possible to reconstruct important elements of the glacial paleo climate in Central Europe. While the proxy data from sediment cores lead to a binary signal of the wind direction changes (east versus west wind), a synoptic interpretation using atmospheric circulation models is successful. This shows a possible distribution of high and low pressure areas and thus the direction and strength of wind fields which have the capacity to transport dust. In conclusion, the combination of numerical models, to enhance understanding of processes in the climate system, with proxy data from the environmental record is the key to a comprehensive approach to paleo climatic reconstruction.rn

Seismic tomographic full-waveform inversion for the Vrancea sinking lithosphere structure using the adjoint method.

The Vrancea region, at the south-eastern bend of the Carpathian Mountains in Romania, represents one of the most puzzling seismically active zones of Europe. Beside some shallow seismicity spread across the whole Romanian territory, Vrancea is the place of an intense seismicity with the presence of a cluster of intermediate-depth foci placed in a narrow nearly vertical volume. Although large-scale mantle seismic tomographic studies have revealed the presence of a narrow, almost vertical, high-velocity body in the upper mantle, the nature and the geodynamic of this deep intra-continental seismicity is still questioned. High-resolution seismic tomography could help to reveal more details in the subcrustal structure of Vrancea. Recent developments in computational seismology as well as the availability of parallel computing now allow to potentially retrieve more information out of seismic waveforms and to reach such high-resolution models. This study was aimed to evaluate the application of a full waveform inversion tomography at regional scale for the Vrancea lithosphere using data from the 1999 six months temporary local network CALIXTO. Starting from a detailed 3D Vp, Vs and density model, built on classical travel-time tomography together with gravity data, I evaluated the improvements obtained with the full waveform inversion approach. The latter proved to be highly problem dependent and highly computational expensive. The model retrieved after the first two iterations does not show large variations with respect to the initial model but remains in agreement with previous tomographic models. It presents a well-defined downgoing slab shape high velocity anomaly, composed of a N-S horizontal anomaly in the depths between 40 and 70km linked to a nearly vertical NE-SW anomaly from 70 to 180km.

A new 3D modelling paradigm for discrete model

Until few years ago, 3D modelling was a topic confined into a professional environment. Nowadays technological innovations, the 3D printer among all, have attracted novice users to this application field. This sudden breakthrough was not supported by adequate software solutions. The 3D editing tools currently available do not assist the non-expert user during the various stages of generation, interaction and manipulation of 3D virtual models. This is mainly due to the current paradigm that is largely supported by two-dimensional input/output devices and strongly affected by obvious geometrical constraints. We have identified three main phases that characterize the creation and management of 3D virtual models. We investigated these directions evaluating and simplifying the classic editing techniques in order to propose more natural and intuitive tools in a pure 3D modelling environment. In particular, we focused on freehand sketch-based modelling to create 3D virtual models, interaction and navigation in a 3D modelling environment and advanced editing tools for free-form deformation and objects composition. To pursuing these goals we wondered how new gesture-based interaction technologies can be successfully employed in a 3D modelling environments, how we could improve the depth perception and the interaction in 3D environments and which operations could be developed to simplify the classical virtual models editing paradigm. Our main aims were to propose a set of solutions with which a common user can realize an idea in a 3D virtual model, drawing in the air just as he would on paper. Moreover, we tried to use gestures and mid-air movements to explore and interact in 3D virtual environment, and we studied simple and effective 3D form transformations. The work was carried out adopting the discrete representation of the models, thanks to its intuitiveness, but especially because it is full of open challenges.

In Vivo Evaluation of the Phenox CRC Mechanical Thrombectomy Device in a Swine Model of Acute Vessel Occlusion

Mechanical thrombectomy in ischemic stroke is of increasing interest as it is a promising strategy for fast and efficient recanalization. Several thrombectomy devices have been introduced to the armentarium of mechanical thrombectomy. Currently, new devices are under development and are continuously added to the neurointerventional tool box. Each device advocated so far has a different design and mechanical properties in terms of thrombus-device interaction. Therefore, a systematic evaluation under standardized conditions in vivo of these new devices is needed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficiency, thrombus-device interaction, and potential complications of the novel Phenox CRC for distal mechanical thrombectomy in vivo. The device was evaluated in an established animal model in the swine. Recanalization rate, thromboembolic events, vasospasm, and complications were assessed. Radiopaque thrombi (2 cm length) were used for the visualization of thrombus-device interaction during retrieval. The Phenox CRC (4 mm diameter) was assessed in 15 vessel occlusions. For every occlusion a maximum of 3 retrieval attempts were performed. Complete recanalization (TICI 3/TIMI 3) was achieved in 86.7% of vessel occlusions. In 66.7% (10/15), the first retrieval attempt was successful, and in 20% (3/15), the second attempt led to complete recanalization of the parent artery. In 2 cases (13.3%) thrombus retrieval was not successful (TICI 0/TIMI 0). In 1 case (6.7%) a minor embolic event occurred in a small side branch. No distal thromboembolic event was observed during the study. Thrombus-device interaction illustrated the entrapment of the thrombus by the microfilaments and the proximal cage of the device. No significant thrombus compression was observed. No vessel perforation, dissection, or fracture of the device occurred. In this small animal study, the Phenox CRC was a safe and effective device for mechanical thrombectomy. The unique design with a combination of microfilaments and proximal cage reduces thrombus compression with a consequently high recanalization and low complication rate.

Estimation of axon counts in a rat model of glaucoma: comparison of fixed-pattern sampling with targeted sampling

Full axon counting of optic nerve cross-sections represents the most accurate method to quantify axonal damage, but such analysis is very labour intensive. Recently, a new method has been developed, termed targeted sampling, which combines the salient features of a grading scheme with axon counting. Preliminary findings revealed the method compared favourably with random sampling. The aim of the current study was to advance our understanding of the effect of sampling patterns on axon counts by comparing estimated axon counts from targeted sampling with those obtained from fixed-pattern sampling in a large collection of optic nerves with different severities of axonal injury.

Assessment Of Dynamic Properties Of A Crowd Model For Human-Structure Interaction Modeling

As lightweight and slender structural elements are more frequently used in the design, large scale structures become more flexible and susceptible to excessive vibrations. To ensure the functionality of the structure, dynamic properties of the occupied structure need to be estimated during the design phase. Traditional analysis method models occupants simply as an additional mass; however, research has shown that human occupants could be better modeled as an additional degree-of- freedom. In the United Kingdom, active and passive crowd models are proposed by the Joint Working Group as a result of a series of analytical and experimental research. It is expected that the crowd models would yield a more accurate estimation to the dynamic response of the occupied structure. However, experimental testing recently conducted through a graduate student project at Bucknell University indicated that the proposed passive crowd model might be inaccurate in representing the impact on the structure from the occupants. The objective of this study is to provide an assessment of the validity of the crowd models proposed by JWG through comparing the dynamic properties obtained from experimental testing data and analytical modeling results. The experimental data used in this study was collected by Firman in 2010. The analytical results were obtained by performing a time-history analysis on a finite element model of the occupied structure. The crowd models were created based on the recommendations from the JWG combined with the physical properties of the occupants during the experimental study. During this study, SAP2000 was used to create the finite element models and to implement the analysis; Matlab and ME¿scope were used to obtain the dynamic properties of the structure through processing the time-history analysis results from SAP2000. The result of this study indicates that the active crowd model could quite accurately represent the impact on the structure from occupants standing with bent knees while the passive crowd model could not properly simulate the dynamic response of the structure when occupants were standing straight or sitting on the structure. Future work related to this study involves improving the passive crowd model and evaluating the crowd models with full-scale structure models and operating data.

Clinical and biochemical description of a novel CYP21A2 gene mutation 962_963insA using a new 3D model for the P450c21 protein

OBJECTIVE: A severely virilized 46, XX newborn girl was referred to our center for evaluation and treatment of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) because of highly elevated 17alpha-hydroxyprogesterone levels at newborn screening; biochemical tests confirmed the diagnosis of salt-wasting CAH. Genetic analysis revealed that the girl was compound heterozygote for a previously reported Q318X mutation in exon 8 and a novel insertion of an adenine between nucleotides 962 and 963 in exon 4 of the CYP21A2 gene. This 962_963insA mutation created a frameshift leading to a stop codon at amino acid 161 of the P450c21 protein. AIM AND METHODS: To better understand structure-function relationships of mutant P450c21 proteins, we performed multiple sequence alignments of P450c21 with three mammalian P450s (P450 2C8, 2C9 and 2B4) with known structures as well as with human P450c17. Comparative molecular modeling of human P450c21 was then performed by MODELLER using the X-ray crystal structure of rabbit P450 2B4 as a template. RESULTS: The new three dimensional model of human P450c21 and the sequence alignment were found to be helpful in predicting the role of various amino acids in P450c21, especially those involved in heme binding and interaction with P450 oxidoreductase, the obligate electron donor. CONCLUSION: Our model will help in analyzing the genotype-phenotype relationship of P450c21 mutations which have not been tested for their functional activity in an in vitro assay.

Influence of diurnal hyperosmotic loading on the metabolism and matrix gene expression of a whole-organ intervertebral disc model

It is generally agreed that the mechanical environment of intervertebral disc cells plays an important role in maintaining a balanced matrix metabolism. The precise mechanism by which the signals are transduced into the cells is poorly understood. Osmotic changes in the extracellular matrix (ECM) are thought to be involved. Current in-vitro studies on this topic are mostly short-term and show conflicting data on the reaction of disc cells subjected to osmotic changes which is partially due to the heterogenous and often substantially-reduced culture systems. The aim of the study was therefore to investigate the effects of cyclic osmotic loading for 4 weeks on metabolism and matrix gene expression in a full-organ intervertebral disc culture system. Intervertebral disc/endplate units were isolated from New Zealand White Rabbits and cultured either in iso-osmotic media (335 mosmol/kg) or were diurnally exposed for 8 hours to hyper-osmotic conditions (485 mosmol/kg). Cell viability, metabolic activity, matrix composition and matrix gene expression profile (collagen types I/II and aggrecan) were monitored using Live/Dead cell viability assay, tetrazolium reduction test (WST 8), proteoglycan and DNA quantification assays and quantitative PCR. The results show that diurnal osmotic stimulation did not have significant effects on proteoglycan content, cellularity and disc cell viability after 28 days in culture. However, hyperosmolarity caused increased cell death in the early culture phase and counteracted up-regulation of type I collagen gene expression in nucleus and annulus cells. Moreover, the initially decreased cellular dehydrogenase activity recovered with osmotic stimulation after 4 weeks and aggrecan gene down-regulation was delayed, although the latter was not significant according to our statistical criteria. In contrast, collagen type II did not respond to the osmotic changes and was down-regulated in both groups. In conclusion, diurnal hyper-osmotic stimulation of a whole-organ disc/endplate culture partially inhibits a matrix gene expression profile as encountered in degenerative disc disease and counteracts cellular metabolic hypo-activity.

A BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE MODEL FOR INCOMPLETE LONGITUDINAL BINARY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO THE BREAST CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

We consider inference in randomized studies, in which repeatedly measured outcomes may be informatively missing due to drop out. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable and identifiable distributions. This model is indexed by non-identified parameters, which are assumed to have an informative prior distribution, elicited from subject-matter experts. Under this model, full data estimands are shown to be expressed as functionals of the distribution of the observed data. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, we model the distribution of the observed data using a Bayesian shrinkage model. In a simulation study, we compare our approach to a fully parametric and a fully saturated model for the distribution of the observed data. Our methodology is motivated and applied to data from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial.