Macroeconomia com M4

O trabalho trata de refazer modelos macroeconômicos usuais, como por exemplo o IS-LM, com a introdução de um agregado amplo de liqüidez, o M4. Faz-se uma cuidadosa análise da identidade de Walras, estendendo-se Simonsen (1983). Como resultado, vê-se que a introdução do mercado de M4 nos modelos exige que seja abandonada ou a curva IS (equilíbrio no mercado de bens e serviços),ou a LM (equilíbrio no mercado monetário). A seguir estuda-se a demanda de M4, sua estimativa no Brasil e um modelo LM4-LM. A utilidade da análise precedente é óbvia: podem-se estudar os impactos de aumentos de M4 diretamente, sem que se recorra ao efeito riqueza (Pigou).

On equilibrium prices in continuous time

We combine general equilibrium theory and théorie générale of stochastic processes to derive structural results about equilibrium state prices.

The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the brazilian experience

This paper attempts to explain why the Brazilian inter-bank interest rate is so high compared with rates practiced by other emerging economies. The interplay between the markets for bank reserves and government securities feeds into the inter-bank rate the risk premium of the Brazilian public debt.

Estimating sectoral cycles using cointegration and common features

This paper investigates the degree of short run and long run co-movement in U.S. sectoral output data by estimating sectoraI trends and cycles. A theoretical model based on Long and Plosser (1983) is used to derive a reduced form for sectoral output from first principles. Cointegration and common features (cycles) tests are performed; sectoral output data seem to share a relatively high number of common trends and a relatively low number of common cycles. A special trend-cycle decomposition of the data set is performed and the results indicate a very similar cyclical behavior across sectors and a very different behavior for trends. Indeed. sectors cyclical components appear as one. In a variance decomposition analysis, prominent sectors such as Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Trade exhibit relatively important transitory shocks.

Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? An application of Bias-Corrected Bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price level. The result was conÖrmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identiÖcation scheme employed by Christiano et al. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap conÖdence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically signiÖcant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to innumerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as studying monetary policy implications. On their turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test if no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross section (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on U.S. Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and Root Mean Square Errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.

The Indetermination of Senior

The commitments and working requirements of abstract, applied, and art of, economics are assessed within an analogy with the fields of inert matter and life. Abstract economics is the pure logic of the phenomenon. Applied positive economics presupposes many distinct abstract sciences. Art presupposes applied economics and direct knowledge of the specificities which characterize the time-space individuality of the phenomenon. This is an indetermination clearly formulated by Senior and Mill; its connection with institutionalism is discussed. The Ricardian Vice is the habit of ignoring the indetermination; its prevalence in mainstream economics is exemplified, and its causes analyzed.

Banning information as a redistributive device

In this paper we analyze the optimality of allowing firms to observe signals of workers’ characteristics in an optimal taxation framework. We show that it is always optimal to prohibit signals that disclose information about differences in the intrinsic productivities of workers like mandatory health exams and IQ tests, for example. On the other hand, it is never optimal to forbid signals that reveal information about the comparative advantages of workers like their specialization and profession. When signals are mixed (they disclose both types of information), there is a trade-off between efficiency and equity. It is optimal to prohibit signals with sufficiently low comparative advantage content.