The Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution with application to failure data

For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Analytic Solution Related to the Richards, Philip, and Green-Ampt Equations for Infiltration

Based on physical laws of similarity, an analytic solution of the soil water potential form of the Richards equation was derived for water infiltration into a homogeneous sand. The derivation assumes a similarity between the soil water retention function and that of the soil water content profiles taken at fixed times. The new solution successfully described soil water content profiles experimentally measured for water infiltrating downward, upward, and horizontally into a homogeneous sand and agrees with that presented by Philip in 1957. The utility of this analysis is still to be verified, but it is expected to hold for soils that have a narrow pore-size distribution before wetting and that manifest a sharp increase of water content at the wetting front during infiltration. The effect of van Genuchten`s parameters alpha and n on the application of the solution to other porous media was investigated. The solution also improves and provides a more realistic description of the infiltration process than that pioneered by Green and Ampt in 1911.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General results for the beta-modified Weibull distribution

We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.

Private valuation of carbon sequestration in forest plantations

Approval of the Clean Development Mechanism, provided for in the Kyoto Protocol, enables countries with afforested land to trade in carbon emissions reduction certificates related to carbon dioxide equivalent quantities (CO(2-e)) stored within a certain forest area. Potential CO(2-e) above base line sequestration was determined for two forest sites on commercial eucalyptus plantations in northern Brazil (Bahia). Compensation values for silvicultural regimes involving rotation lengths greater than economically optimal were computed using the Faustmann formula. Mean values obtained were US$8.16 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) and US $7.19 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) for average and high site indexes, respectively. Results show that carbon supply is more cost-efficient in highly productive sites. Annuities of US$18.8 Mg C(-1) and US$35.1 Mg C(-1) and yearly payments of US$4.4 m(-3) and US$8.2 m(-3) due for each marginal cubic meter produced were computed for high and average sites, respectively. The estimated value of the tonne of carbon defines minimum values to be paid to forest owners, in order to induce a change in silvicultural management regimes. A reduction of carbon supply could be expected as a result of an increase in wood prices, although it would not respond in a regular manner. For both sites, price elasticity of supply was found to be inelastic and increased as rotation length moved further away from economically optimal: 0.24 and 0.27 for age 11 years in average- and high-productivity sites, respectively. This would be due to biomass production potential as a limiting factor; beyond a certain threshold value. an increase in price does not sustain a proportional change in carbon storage supply. The environmental service valuation model proposed might be adequate for assessing potential supply in plantation forestry, from a private landowner perspective, with an economic opportunity cost. The model is not applicable to low commercial value forest plantations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest certification in Amazonia: standards matter

Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification promises international consumers that `green-label` timber has been logged sustainably. However, recent research indicates that this is not true for ipe (Tabebuia spp.), currently flooding the US residential decking market, much of it logged in Brazil. Uneven or non-application of minimum technical standards for certification could undermine added value and eventually the certification process itself. We examine public summary reports by third-party certifiers describing the evaluation process for certified companies in the Brazilian Amazon to determine the extent to which standards are uniformly applied and the degree to which third-party certifier requirements for compliance are consistent among properties. Current best-practice harvest systems, combined with Brazilian legal norms for harvest levels, guarantee that no certified company or community complies with FSC criteria and indicators specifying species-level management. No guidelines indicate which criteria and indicators must be enforced, or to what degree, for certification to be conferred by third-party assessors; nor do objective guidelines exist for evaluating compliance for criteria and indicators for which adequate scientific information is not yet available to identify acceptable levels. Meanwhile, certified companies are expected to monitor the long-term impacts of logging on biodiversity in addition to conducting best-practice forest management. This burden should reside elsewhere. We recommend a clarification of `sustained timber yield` that reflects current state of knowledge and practice in Amazonia. Quantifiable verifiers for best-practice forest management must be developed and consistently employed. These will need to be flexible to reflect the diversity in forest structure and dynamics that prevails across this vast region. We offer suggestions for how to achieve these goals.

WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Genetic potential of a maize population from Southern Brazil for the modified convergent-divergent selection scheme

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a very important cereal to world-wide economy which is also true for Brazil, particularly in the South region. Grain yield and plant height have been chosen as important criteria by breeders and farmers from Santa Catarina State (SC), Brazil. The objective of this work was to estimate genetic-statistic parameters associated with genetic gain for grain yield and plant height, in the first cycle of convergent-divergent half-sib selection in a maize population (MPA1) cultivated by farmers within the municipality of Anchieta (SC). Three experiments were carried out in different small farms at Anchieta using low external agronomic inputs; each experiment represented independent samples of half-sib families, which were evaluated in randomized complete blocks with three replications per location. Significant differences among half-sib families were observed for both variables in all experiments. The expected responses to truncated selection of the 25% better families in each experiment were 5.1, 5.8 and 5.2% for reducing plant height and 3.9, 5.7 and 5.0% for increasing grain yield, respectively. The magnitudes of genetic-statistic parameters estimated evidenced that the composite population MPA1 exhibits enough genetic variability to be used in cyclical process of recurrent selection. There were evidences that the genetic structure of the base population MPA1, as indicated by its genetic variability, may lead to expressive changes in the traits under selection, even under low selection pressure.

Genetic structure and mating system of Euterpe edulis Mart. populations: A comparative analysis using microsatellite and allozyme markers

A comparative study between microsatellite and allozyme markers was conducted on the genetic structure and mating system in natural populations of Euterpe edulis Mart. Three cohorts, including seedlings, saplings, and adults, were examined in 4 populations using 10 allozyme loci and 10 microsatellite loci. As expected, microsatellite markers had a much higher degree of polymorphism than allozymes, but estimates of multilocus outcrossing rate ((t) over cap (m) = 1.00), as well as estimates of genetic structure (F(IS), G(ST)), were similar for the 2 sets of markers. Estimates of R(ST), for microsatellites, were higher than those of GST, but results of both statistics revealed a close agreement for the genetic structure of the species. This study provides support for the important conclusion that allozymes are still useful and reliable markers to estimate population genetic parameters. Effects of sample size on estimates from hypervariable loci are also discussed in this paper.

Inheritance of growth habit detected by genetic linkage analysis using microsatellites in the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

The genetic linkage map for the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is a valuable tool for breeding programs. Breeders provide new cultivars that meet the requirements of farmers and consumers, such as seed color, seed size, maturity, and growth habit. A genetic study was conducted to examine the genetics behind certain qualitative traits. Growth habit is usually described as a recessive trait inherited by a single gene, and there is no consensus about the position of the locus. The aim of this study was to develop a new genetic linkage map using genic and genomic microsatellite markers and three morphological traits: growth habit, flower color, and pod tip shape. A mapping population consisting of 380 recombinant F10 lines was generated from IAC-UNA x CAL143. A total of 871 microsatellites were screened for polymorphisms among the parents, and a linkage map was obtained with 198 mapped microsatellites. The total map length was 1865.9 cM, and the average distance between markers was 9.4 cM. Flower color and pod tip shape were mapped and segregated at Mendelian ratios, as expected. The segregation ratio and linkage data analyses indicated that the determinacy growth habit was inherited as two independent and dominant genes, and a genetic model is proposed for this trait.

Sustainability certification of bioethanol: how is it perceived by Brazilian stakeholders?

This paper investigates whether initiatives for sustainability certification of Brazilian ethanol can be expected to stimulate a change among producers toward more sustainable production - and, if so, what those changes would likely be. Connected to this, several questions are raised including whether producers might prefer to target other markets with less stringent demands, and if certification might lead to structural changes in the sector because producers who lack the capacity to meet the new requirements cannot remain competitive. The analysis of interviews with a diverse group of stakeholders under the guidance of the Technological Innovation Systems framework allowed us identify different actions taken by the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol sector in response to requirements of sustainability. The interviewees agreed that sustainability certification is an important element for the expansion of biofuel production in Brazil. Brazilian stakeholders have created a platform for more competitive sustainable production and have initiated relevant processes in response to the development connected to sustainability certification. Yet, the certification activities have had a limited impact in terms of the number of involved stakeholders. But interview responses indicate that the sector may adapt to new certification requirements rather than leave markets where such requirements become established. Structural changes can be expected if certification requirements as they exist in many initiatives are introduced in unflexible ways. The social importance of the ethanol industry is large in Brazil and some adjustments for certification may be required. The paper concludes by suggesting some actions for the industry. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Winter-feeding systems for gestating sheep II. Effects on feedlot performance, glucose tolerance, and carcass composition of lamb progeny

Mature pregnant crossbred ewes (n = 90) were used in a randomized complete block design experiment and were assigned to 1 of 3 winter-feeding systems differing in primary feed source: haylage (HL), limit-fed corn (CN), or limit-fed dried distillers grains (DDGS). Effects of these winter-feeding strategies on postweaning progeny performance were determined. Lamb progeny (n = 96) were weaned at 61 +/- 4 d of age and fed a common high-concentrate diet. Lambs were assigned to feedlot pen (n = 18) based on dam mid-gestation pen. Growth rate, DMI, and ADG were determined for the first 40 d of the finishing period. At 96 +/- 4 d of age, 1 wether lamb was randomly selected from each pen (n = 18) for a glucose tolerance test. The experiment was terminated, and lambs were slaughtered individually when they were determined to have achieved 0.6-cm 12th-rib fat thickness. After a 24-h chill, carcass data were collected and a 2.54-cm chop was removed from each lamb from the LM posterior to the 12th rib for ether extract analysis. Additional carcass measurements of bone, muscle, and fat from the shoulder, rack, loin, and leg were collected on 35 carcasses. At weaning, lamb BW was not different among treatments, whereas final BW tended to be greater (P = 0.09) for lambs from ewes fed DDGS and CN during gestation than from those fed HL. Overall lamb growth rate from birth to slaughter was not different among treatments. Lambs from ewes fed DDGS vs. CN or HL tended to have a greater initial insulin response (P = 0.09). Dressing percent was less (P = 0.04) in lambs from ewes fed DDGS, but no difference (P = 0.16) was detected in HCW among treatments. As expected, 12th rib fat thickness was similar among treatments, whereas LM area was largest to smallest (P = 0.05) in lambs from ewes fed CN, HL, and DDGS, respectively. Proportion of internal fat tended to be greatest to smallest (P = 0.06) in lambs from ewes fed DDGS, CN, and HL, respectively. Calculated boneless trimmed retail cuts percentage was less (P = 0.04) in lambs from ewes fed DDGS than CN or HL. Loin muscle weight as a percentage of wholesale cut tended (P = 0.10) to be greater in lambs from ewes fed CN and HL than DDGS, whereas other muscle, bone, and fat weights and proportions were similar (P > 0.24) among treatments. Prepartum diet during mid to late gestation of ewes altered postnatal fat and muscle deposition and may be associated with alterations in insulin sensitivity of progeny.

Brazilian Agriculture and Environmental Legislation: Status and Future Challenges

Brazilian agriculture covers about one-third of the land area and is expected to expand further We assessed the compliance of present Brazilian agriculture with environmental legislation and identified challenges for agricultural development connected to this legislation We found (i) minor illegal land use in protected areas under public administration, (ii) a large deficit in legal reserves and protected riparian zones on private farmland, and large areas of unprotected natural vegetation in regions experiencing agriculture expansion Achieving full compliance with the environmental laws as they presently stand would require drastic changes in agricultural land use, where large agricultural areas are taken out of production and converted back to natural vegetation The outcome of a full compliance with environmental legislation might not be satisfactory due to leakage, where pristine unprotected areas become converted to compensate for lost production as current agricultural areas are reconverted to protected natural vegetation. Realizing the desired protection of biodiversity and natural vegetation, while expanding agriculture to meet food and biofuel demand, may require a new approach to environmental protection New legal and regulatory instruments and the establishment of alternative development models should be considered

Environmental, land-use and economic implications of Brazilian sugarcane expansion 1996-2006

Governments are promoting biofuels and the resulting changes in land use and crop reallocation to biofuels production have raised concerns about impacts on environment and food security. The promotion of biofuels has also been questioned based on suggested marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, partly due to induced land use change causing greenhouse gas emissions. This study reports how the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil during 1996-2006 affected indicators for environment, land use and economy. The results indicate that sugarcane expansion did not in general contribute to direct deforestation in the traditional agricultural region where most of the expansion took place. The amount of forests on farmland in this area is below the minimum stated in law and the situation did not change over the studied period. Sugarcane expansion resulted in a significant reduction of pastures and cattle heads and higher economic growth than in neighboring areas. It could not be established to what extent the discontinuation of cattle production induced expansion of pastures in other areas, possibly leading to indirect deforestation. However, the results indicate that a possible migration of the cattle production reached further than the neighboring of expansion regions. Occurring at much smaller rates, expansion of sugarcane in regions such as the Amazon and the Northeast region was related to direct deforestation and competition with food crops, and appear not to have induced economic growth. These regions are not expected to experience substantial increases of sugarcane in the near future, but mitigating measures are warranted.

Fate of Surface-Inoculated Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, and Salmonella Typhimurium on Kippered Beef during Extended Storage at Refrigeration and Abusive Temperatures

The behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, and Salmonella Typhimurium on kippered beef was evaluated. Individual pieces of the product were separately inoculated on the top and bottom surfaces with each three- to six-strain pathogen cocktail at ca. 6.0 log CFU per piece and stored at 4, 10, 21, or 30 degrees C for up to 28 days in each of two trials. When kippered beef was inoculated with E coli O157:H7, Salmonella Typhimurium, or L. monocytogenes and stored at 4, 10, 2 1, or 30 degrees C for up to 28 days, pathogen numbers decreased ca. 0.4 to 0.9, 1.0 to 1.8, 3.0 to >= 5.25, and >= 5.0 to 5.25 log CFU per piece, respectively. Average D-values for E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella Typhimurium, and L. monocytogenes stored at 4 to 30 degrees C for 28 days were ca. 41 to 4.6, 40.8 to 5.3, and 29.5 to 4.3 days, respectively. As expected, the higher the storage temperature, the greater the level and rate of inactivation for all three pathogens. These data establish that kippered beef does not provide an environment conducive to proliferation of these pathogens.