Storytelling in song: television music, narrative and allusion in 'The O.C.'

Television’s long-form storytelling has the potential to allow the rippling of music across episodes and seasons in interesting ways. In the integration of narrative, music and meaning found in The O.C. (Fox, FOX 2003-7), popular song’s allusive and referential qualities are drawn upon to particularly televisual ends. At times embracing its ‘disruptive’ presence, at others suturing popular music into narrative, at times doing both at once. With television studies largely lacking theories of music, this chapter draws on film music theory and close textual analysis to analyse some of the programme's music moments in detail. In particular it considers the series-spanning use of Jeff Buckley’s cover of ‘Hallelujah’ (and its subsequent oppressive presence across multiple televisual texts), the end of episode musical montage and the use of recurring song fragments as theme within single episodes. In doing so it highlights music's role in the fragmentation and flow of the television aesthetic and popular song’s structural presence in television narrative. Illustrating the multiplicity of popular song’s use in television, these moments demonstrate song’s ability to provide narrative commentary, yet also make particular use of what Ian Garwood describes as the ability of ‘a non-diegetic song to exceed the emotional range displayed by diegetic characters’ (2003:115), to ‘speak’ for characters or to their feelings, contributing to both teen TV’s melodramatic affect and narrative expression.

How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?

Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability.

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

Diurnal warm-layer events in the western Mediterranean and European shelf seas

We characterize near-surface ocean diurnal warm-layer events, using satellite observations and fields from numerical weather forecasting. The study covers April to September, 2006, over the area 11°W to 17°E and 35°N to 57°N, with 0.1° cells. We use hourly satellite SSTs from which peak amplitudes of diurnal cycles in SST (dSSTs) can be estimated with error ∼0.3 K. The diurnal excursions of SST observed are spatially and temporally coherent. The largest dSSTs exceed 6 K, affect 0.01% of the surface, and are seen in the Mediterranean, North and Irish Seas. There is an anti-correlation between the magnitude and the horizontal length scale of dSST events. Events wherein dSST exceeds 4 K have length scales of ≤40 km. From the frequency distribution of different measures of wind-speed minima, we infer that extreme dSST maxima arise where conditions of low wind speed are sustained from early morning to mid afternoon.

The atmospheric impact of uncertainties in recent Arctic Sea ice reconstructions

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is further developed by performing a set of simulations using the third Hadley Centre Coupled Atmospheric Model (HadAM3). The model was driven with monthly climatologies of sea ice fractions derived from three of these records to investigate potential implications of sea ice inaccuracies for climate simulations. The standard sea ice climatology from the Met Office provided a control. This study focuses on the effects of actual inaccuracies of concentration retrievals, which vary spatially and are larger in summer than winter. The smaller sea ice discrepancies in winter have a much larger influence on climate than the much greater summer sea ice differences. High sensitivity to sea ice prescription was observed, even though no SST feedbacks were included. Significant effects on surface fields were observed in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. Arctic average surface air temperature anomalies in winter vary by 2.5°C, and locally exceed 12°C. Arctic mean sea level pressure varies by up to 5 mb locally. Anomalies extend to 45°N over North America and Eurasia but not to lower latitudes, and with limited changes in circulation above the boundary layer. No statistically significant impact on climate variability was simulated, in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Results suggest that the uncertainty in summer sea ice prescription is not critical but that winter values require greater accuracy, with the caveats that the influences of ocean–sea ice feedbacks were not included in this study.

Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Influence of mass diffusion in sea ice dynamical models

The mixing of floes of different thickness caused by repeated deformation of the ice cover is modeled as diffusion, and the mass balance equation for sea ice accounting for mass diffusion is developed. The effect of deformational diffusion on the ice thickness balance is shown to reach 1% of the divergence effect, which describes ridging and lead formation. This means that with the same accuracy the mass balance equation can be written in terms of mean velocity rather than mean mass-weighted velocity, which one should correctly use for a multicomponent fluid such as sea ice with components identified by floe thickness. Mixing (diffusion) of sea ice also occurs because of turbulent variations in wind and ocean drags that are unresolved in models. Estimates of the importance of turbulent mass diffusion on the dynamic redistribution of ice thickness are determined using empirical data for the turbulent diffusivity. For long-time-scale prediction (≫5 days), where unresolved atmospheric motion may have a length scale on the order of the Arctic basin and the time scale is larger than the synoptic time scale of atmospheric events, turbulent mass diffusion can exceed 10% of the divergence effect. However, for short-time-scale prediction, for example, 5 days, the unresolved scales are on the order of 100 km, and turbulent diffusion is about 0.1% of the divergence effect. Because inertial effects are small in the dynamics of the sea ice pack, diffusive momentum transfer can be disregarded.

Characterizing sampling bias in the trace gas climatologies of the SPARC Data Initiative

Monthly zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric measurements from satellite instruments can have biases due to the nonuniform sampling of the atmosphere by the instruments. We characterize potential sampling biases in stratospheric trace gas climatologies of the Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative using chemical fields from a chemistry climate model simulation and sampling patterns from 16 satellite-borne instruments. The exercise is performed for the long-lived stratospheric trace gases O3 and H2O. Monthly sampling biases for O3 exceed 10% for many instruments in the high-latitude stratosphere and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, while annual mean sampling biases reach values of up to 20% in the same regions for some instruments. Sampling biases for H2O are generally smaller than for O3, although still notable in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes. The most important mechanism leading to monthly sampling bias is nonuniform temporal sampling, i.e., the fact that for many instruments, monthly means are produced from measurements which span less than the full month in question. Similarly, annual mean sampling biases are well explained by nonuniformity in the month-to-month sampling by different instruments. Nonuniform sampling in latitude and longitude are shown to also lead to nonnegligible sampling biases, which are most relevant for climatologies which are otherwise free of biases due to nonuniform temporal sampling.

Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Variability of the interplanetary medium at 1 A.U. over 24 years: 1963–1986

A survey is presented of hourly averages of observations of the interplanetary medium, made by satellites close to the Earth (i.e. at l a.u.) in the years 1963-1986. This survey therefore covers two complete solar cycles (numbers 20 and 21). The distributions and solar-cycle variations of IMF field strength, B, and its northward component (in GSM coordinates), B(z), and of the solar-wind density, n, speed, v, and dynamic pressure, P, are discussed. Because of their importance to the terrestrial magnetosphere/ionosphere, particular attention is given to B(z) and P. The solar-cycle variation in the magnitude and variability of B(z) previously reported for cycle 20, is also found for cycle 21. However, the solar-wind data show a number of differences between cycles 20 and 21. The average dynamic pressure is found to show a solar-cycle variation and a systematic increase over the period of the survey. The minimum of dynamic pressure at sunspot maximum is mainly due to reduced solar-wind densities in cycle 20, but lower solar-wind speed in cycle 21 is a more significant factor. The distribution of the duration of periods of stable polarity of the IMF B(z) component shows that the magnetosphere could achieve steady state for only a small fraction of the time and there is some evidence for a solar-cycle variation in this fraction. It is also found that the polarity changes in the IMF B(z) fall into two classes: one with an associated change in solar-wind dynamic pressure, the other without such a change. However, in only 20% of cases does the dynamic pressure change exceed 50%.

Ion flows and heating at a contracting polar-cap boundary: GISMOS observations indicating viscous-like interaction on the flanks of the magnetotail

This paper complements that in this issue by Clauer et al. concerning the international GISMOS campaign of 3–5 June 1987. From a detailed study of the EISCAT data, the polar-cap boundary, as defined by an almost shear east-west convection reversal, is found to contract across the EISCAT field of view between 04 and 07 MLT. An annulus of enhanced ion temperature and non-thermal plasma is observed immediately equatorward of the contracting boundary due to the lag in the response of the neutral-wind pattern to the change in ion flows. The ion flow inside the polar cap and at the boundary is shown to be relatively smooth, compared with that in the auroral oval, at 15-second resolution. The flow at the boundary is directed poleward, with velocities which exceed that of the boundary itself. The effect of velocity shears on the beamswinging technique used to derive the ion flows has been analysed in detail and it is found that spurious flows across a moving boundary can be generated. However, these are much smaller than the observed flows into the polar cap and cannot explain the 7 kV potential difference across the observed segment of the cap boundary between 04:30–06:30 UT. The ion temperature enhancements at the two observing azimuths is used to define the boundary orientation. The results are consistent with recent observations of slow anti-sunward flow of closed field lines on the flanks of the geomagnetic tail, which appears to be generated by some form of “viscous” coupling to the magnetosheath plasma.

Ion flows and heating at a contracting polar-cap boundary

Data recorded by the POLAR experiment run on the EISCAT radar during the international GISMOS campaign of 3–5 June 1987 are studied in detail. The polar-cap boundary, as denned by an almost shear East-West convection reversal, was observed to jump southward across the EISCAT field of view in two steps at 02:00 and 03:00 Magnetic Local Time and subsequently to contract back between 04:00 and 07:00 M.L.T. An annulus of enhanced ion temperature and non-thermal plasma was observed immediately equatorward of the contracting boundary due to the lag in the response of the neutral-wind pattern to the change in ion flows. The ion flow at the boundary is shown to be relatively smooth at 15 s resolution and directed northward, with velocities which exceed that of the boundary itself. The effect of velocity shears on the beamswinging technique used to derive the ion flows is analyzed in detail and it is shown that, for certain orientations of the cap boundary, spurious flows into the cap can be generated. However, these are much smaller than the observed flows into the polar cap and cannot explain the potential difference across the observed segment of the cap boundary (extending over 2 h of M.L.T.) which is roughly 7 kV. Similarly, an observed slowing of the zonal flow near the boundary cannot be explained as an error introduced by the use of the beamswinging technique. The results could be interpreted as being due to reconnection occurring on the dawn flank of the magnetopause (mapping to the polar cap at 04:30 06:30 M.L.T.). However, they are more consistent with recent observations of slow anti-sunward flow of closed field lines on the flanks of the geomagnetic tail, which appears to be generated by some form of “viscous” coupling to the magnetosheath plasma.

Non-Maxwellian ion velocity distributions observed using EISCAT

Recent observations from the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar have revealed bursts of poleward ion flow in the dayside auroral ionosphere which are consistent with the ionospheric signature of flux transfer events at the magnetopause. These bursts frequently contain ion drifts which exceed the neutral thermal speed and, because the neutral thermospheric wind is incapable of responding sufficiently rapidly, toroidal, non-Maxwellian ion velocity distributions are expected. The EISCAT observations are made with high time resolution (15 seconds) and at a large angle to the geomagnetic field (73.5°), allowing the non-Maxwellian nature of the distribution to be observed remotely for the first time. The observed features are also strongly suggestive of a toroidal distribution: characteristic spectral shape, increased scattered power (both consistent with reduced Landau damping and enhanced electric field fluctuations) and excessively high line-of-sight ion temperatures deduced if a Maxwellian distribution is assumed. These remote sensing observations allow the evolution of the distributions to be observed. They are found to be non-Maxwellian whenever the ion drift exceeds the neutral thermal speed, indicating that such distributions can exist over the time scale of the flow burst events (several minutes).

The impact of secondary pests on Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops

The intensification of agriculture and the development of synthetic insecticides enabled worldwide grain production to more than double in the last third of the 20th century. However, the heavy dependence and, in some cases, overuse of insecticides has been responsible for negative environmental and ecological impacts across the globe, such as a reduction in biodiversity, insect resistance to pesticides, negative effects on nontarget species (e.g. natural enemies) and the development of secondary pests. The use of recombinant DNA technology to develop genetically engineered (GE) insect resistant crops could mitigate many of the negative side effects of pesticides. One such genetic alteration enables crops to express toxic crystalline (Cry) proteins from the soil bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). Despite the widespread adoption of Bt crops, there are still a range of unanswered questions concerning longer term agro-ecosystem interactions. For instance, insect species that are not susceptible to the expressed toxin can develop into secondary pests and cause significant damage to the crop. Here we review the main causes surrounding secondary pest dynamics in Bt crops and the impact of such outbreaks. Regardless of the causes, if non-susceptible secondary pest populations exceed economic thresholds, insecticide spraying could become the immediate solution at farmers’ disposal, and the sustainable use of this genetic modification technology may be in jeopardy. Based on the literature, recommendations for future research are outlined that will help to improve the knowledge of the possible longterm ecological trophic interactions of employing this technology.

The hidden organic carbon in deep mineral soils

Aims Current estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) are based largely on surficial measurements to depths of 0.3 to 1 m. Many of the world’s soils greatly exceed 1 m depth and there are numerous reports of biological activity to depths of many metres. Although SOC storage to depths of up to 8 m has been previously reported, the extent to which SOC is stored at deeper depths in soil profiles is currently unknown. This paper aims to provide the first detailed analysis of these previously unreported stores of SOC. Methods Soils from five sites in the deeply weathered regolith in the Yilgarn Craton of south-western Australia were sampled and analysed for total organic carbon by combustion chromatography. These soils ranged between 5 and 38 m (mean 21 m) depth to bedrock and had been either recently reforested with Pinus pinaster or were under agriculture. Sites had a mean annual rainfall of between 399 and 583 mm yr−1. Results The mean SOC concentration across all sites was 2.30 ± 0.26 % (s.e.), 0.41 ± 0.05 % and 0.23 ± 0.04 % in the surface 0.1, 0.1–0.5 and 0.5 to 1.0 m increments, respectively. The mean value between 1 and 5 m was 0.12 ± 0.01 %, whereas between 5 and 35 m the values decreased from 0.04 ± 0.002 % to 0.03 ± 0.003 %. Mean SOC mass densities for each of the five locations varied from 21.8–37.5 kg C m−2, and were in toto two to five times greater than would be reported with sampling to a depth of 0.5 m. Conclusions This finding may have major implications for estimates of global carbon storage and modelling of the potential global impacts of climate change and land-use change on carbon cycles. The paper demonstrates the need for a reassessment of the current arbitrary shallow soil sampling depths for assessing carbon stocks, a revision of global SOC estimates and elucidation of the composition and fate of deep carbon in response to land use and climate change