The use of mathematical modelling in fire safety engineering

Fire is a form of uncontrolled combustion which generates heat, smoke, toxic and irritant gases. All of these products are harmful to man and account for the heavy annual cost of 800 lives and £1,000,000,000 worth of property damage in Britain alone. The new discipline of Fire Safety Engineering has developed as a means of reducing these unacceptable losses. One of the main tools of Fire Safety Engineering is the mathematical model and over the past 15 years a number of mathematical models have emerged to cater for the needs of this discipline. Part of the difficulty faced by the Fire Safety Engineer is the selection of the most appropriate modelling tool to use for the job. To make an informed choice it is essential to have a good understanding of the various modelling approaches, their capabilities and limitations. In this paper some of the fundamental modelling tools used to predict fire and evacuation are investigated as are the issues associated with their use and recent developments in modelling technology.

The Janus-faced City: A Sensory History of the London Blitz 1940–1941

The city of London was, during the years of 1940–1941, a city under fire. The metropolis seemed to have two faces, like the Roman deity Janus: the face of the daylight hours, so normal, and yet so deceiving in its false quietness – and at nightfall, the city turned, and the face of it was the face of the devil himself, transforming London into a living inferno. This thesis examines the sensescapes of the Blitz, through the diaries and memoirs written of that time. The primary sources consist of seven different diaries, two autobiographies, and four research volumes that contain multiple diary- and memoire entries, mostly from the Mass Observation Archives and from the Imperial War Museum. The sensory approach is a new orientation in the field of history – it studies the five senses in their cultural contexts, interpreting the often subtle ways in which the senses affect into society, politics, culture, and class hierarchies, to name only but few. The subject of the sensory history of war is a theme widely unexamined: this thesis contributes to this frontier field by unveiling the sensorium of the London bombings, comparing the differences between the halves of nychtemeron, and examining how the Blitz was communicated by the writers as a lived, bodily experience. This study reveals the very different sensory worlds in which the Londoners lived, during a time that is often described with the mythical solidarity that was thought to exist between the people. The reality of the homeless, working class, and poor were in the foul smelling tubes, poor law -dated rations, and in the smoking ruins of East End – the contrast was massive reflecting it to the luxury hotels and restaurants of the upper classes, opportunities for evacuation, sheltering possibilities, and overall comforts of life.

Benefits of laparoscopic colorectal surgery in the geriatric patient

Background. Our aim is the retrospective valuation of results in over 75 year-old patients, with colorectal cancer, treated with laparoscopic and laparotomic surgery, considering how laparoscopic surgery has improved these patients’ outcome. Patients and methods. We took all over 75 year-old patients, affected by colorectal cancer, treated with colectomy. Patients has been divided into two groups: laparotomy group and laparoscopy group. Data concerning patients, i.e., age, sex, BMI, ASA, comorbidities, were collected with data concerning the operation (surgical time, conversion percentage). Postoperative outcomes – i.e., gas evacuation, bowel movements, solid and liquid feeding, need to ICU, complications, re-surgery, hospitalization and type of discharge, mortality – were evaluated. Results. A total of 145 patients are included: laparotomy 80 and laparoscopy 51. Two groups are homogeneous for age, sex, BMI, ASA, comorbidities. Surgical times are the same. Need to Intesive Care Unit (ICU) is lower in laparoscopy. Gas evacuation and bowel movements are earlier in laparoscopy. Liquid and solid diet is earlier in laparoscopy. Hospitalization was earlier after laparoscopy. Discharge at home is more frequent in laparoscopy. Major and minor complications are lower in laparoscopy. Post-operative mortality is lower in laparoscopy. Conclusions. Laparoscopy improves over 75 year-old patients’ outcomes, after elective surgery for colorectal cancer. Surgery trauma, anaesthesia, nutritional and hemodynamic alterations, are factors that break the old patients’ fragile physiologic balance. Less traumatic surgery improves old patients’ outcomes.

Governmentality and exclusion in post-disaster spaces : conducting the conduct of the survivors of Typhoon Sendong in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines

Lorsque les aléas naturels se déroulent en catastrophes, les réponses des religieux, de l’Etat, et d’autres acteurs puissants dans une société révèlent à la fois les relations complexes entre ces parties et leur pouvoir dans la production des espaces auxquelles les survivants accèdent. La réponse en cas de catastrophe comprend la création d’espaces post-catastrophes, tels que des centres d’évacuation, des logements de transition et des sites de réinstallation permanente, qui ciblent spécifiquement un sous-ensemble particulier de survivants, et visent à les aider à survivre, à faire face, et à se remettre de la catastrophe. Les acteurs puissants dans une société dirigent les processus de secours, de récupération et de reconstruction sont des acteurs puissants qui cherchent à problématiser et à rendre un problème technique dans des termes qu’ils sont idéalement placés pour aborder à travers une variété d'interventions. Ce projet de recherche vise à répondre à la question: où les survivants d'une catastrophe reconstruisent-ils leurs vies et leurs moyens de subsistance? Il enquête sur un cas spécifique de la migration environnementale dans laquelle des dizaines de milliers d'habitants ont été déplacés de façon permanente et temporaire de leurs résidences habituelles après le typhon Sendong à Cagayan de Oro, Philippines en 2011. La recherche est basée sur des entretiens avec les acteurs puissants et les survivants, des vidéos participatives réalisées par des survivants pauvres urbains, et des activités de cartographie. L’étude se fonde sur la théorie féministe, les études de migration, les études dans la gouvernementalité, la recherche sur les changements de l’environnement planétaire, et les études régionales afin de situer les diverses expériences de la migration dans un contexte géographique et historique. Cette thèse propose une topographie critique dans laquelle les processus et les pratiques de production d’espaces post-catastrophe sont exposés. Parce que l’espace est nécessairement malléable, fluide, et relationnelle en raison de l'évolution constante des activités, des conflits, et des expériences qui se déroulent dans le paysage, une analyse de l'espace doit être formulée en termes de relations sociales qui se produisent dans et au-delà de ses frontières poreuses. En conséquence, cette étude explore comment les relations sociales entre les survivants et les acteurs puissants sont liées à l’exclusion, la gouvernementalité, la mobilité, et la production des espaces, des lieux et des territoires. Il constate que, si les trajectoires de migration de la plupart des survivants ont été confinés à l'intérieur des limites de la ville, les expériences de ces survivants et leur utilisation des espaces urbains sont très différentes. Ces différences peuvent être expliquées par des structures politiques, économiques, et sociales, et par les différences religieuses, économiques, et de genre. En outre, il fait valoir que les espaces post-catastrophe doivent être considérés comme des «espaces d’exclusion» où les fiduciaires exercent une rationalité gouvernementale. C’est-à-dire, les espaces post-catastrophe prétendument inclusives servent à marginaliser davantage les populations vulnérables. Ces espaces offrent aussi des occasions pour les acteurs puissants dans la société philippine d'effectuer des interventions gouvernementales dans lesquelles certaines personnes et les paysages sont simplifiées, rendues lisibles, et améliorés.

Espionage against Poland in the Documents and Analyses of the Polish Special Services (1944 - 1989) - as Illustrated by the Intelligence Activities of the USA

The text analyses the intelligence activity against Poland in the period 1944-1989. The paper also contains a case study, i.e. an analysis of the American intelligence service activity held against Poland. While examining the research thesis, the author used the documents and analyses prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. In order to best illustrate the point, the author presented a number of cases of persons who spied for the USA, which was possible thanks to the analysis of the training materials of the Ministry of Internal Affairs directed to the officers of the Security Service and the Citizens’ Militia. The text tackles the following issues: (1) to what extent did the character of the socio-political system influence the number of persons convicted for espionage against Poland in the period under examination?, (2) what was the level of interest of the foreign intelligence services in Poland before the year 1990?, (3) is it possible to indicate the specificity of the U.S. intelligence activity against Poland? 1) The analysis of data indicates that the period 1946-1956 witnessed a great number of convictions for espionage, which is often associated with the peculiar political situation in Poland of that time. Up to 1953, the countries of the Eastern bloc had reproduced the Stalin’s system, which only ceased due to the death of Stalin himself. Since then, the communist systems gradually transformed into the system of nomenklatura. Irrespective of these changes, Poland still witnessed a wave of repressions, which resulted from the threats continuously looming over the communist authorities – combating the anti-communist underground movement, fighting with the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the Polish government-in-exile, possible revisionism of borders, social discontent related to the socio-political reforms. Hence, a great number of convictions for espionage at that time could be ascribed to purely political sentences. Moreover, equally significant was the fact that the then judicial practice was preoccupied assessing negatively any contacts and relations with foreigners. This excessive number of convictions could ensue from other criminal-law provisions, which applied with respect to the crimes against the State, including espionage. What is also important is the fact that in the Stalin’s period the judiciary personnel acquired their skills and qualifications through intensive courses in law with the predominant spirit of the theory of evidence and law by Andrey Vyshinsky. Additionally, by the decree of 1944 the Penal Code of the Polish Armed Forces was introduced; the code envisaged the increase in the number of offences classified as penalised with death penalty, whereas the high treason was subject to the military jurisdiction (the civilians were prosecuted in military courts till 1955; the espionage, however, still stood under the military jurisdiction). In 1946, there was introduced the Decree on particularly dangerous crimes in the period of the State’s recovery, which was later called a Small Penal Code. 2) The interest that foreign intelligence services expressed in relation to Poland was similar to the one they had in all countries of Eastern and Central Europe. In the case of Poland, it should be noted that foreign intelligence services recruited Polish citizens who had previously stayed abroad and after WWII returned to their home country. The services also gathered information from Poles staying in immigrant camps (e.g. in FRG). The activity of the American intelligence service on the territory of FRG and West Berlin played a key role. The documents of the Ministry of Internal Affairs pointed to the global range of this activity, e.g. through the recruitment of Polish sailors in the ports of the Netherlands, Japan, etc. In line with the development in the 1970s, espionage, which had so far concentrated on the defence and strategic sectors, became focused on science and technology of the People’s Republic of Poland. The acquisition of collaborators in academic circles was much easier, as PRL opened to academic exchange. Due to the system of visas, the process of candidate selection for intelligence services (e.g. the American) began in embassies. In the 1980s, the activity of the foreign intelligence services concentrated on the specific political situation in Poland, i.e. the growing significance of the “Solidarity” social movement. 3) The specificity of the American intelligence activity against Poland was related to the composition of the residency staff, which was the largest in comparison to other Western countries. The wide range of these activities can be proved by the quantitative data of convictions for espionage in the years 1944-1984 (however, one has to bear in mind the factors mentioned earlier in the text, which led to the misinterpretation of these data). Analysing the data and the documents prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, one should treat them with caution, as, frequently, the Polish counter-intelligence service used to classify the ordinary diplomatic practice and any contacts with foreigners as espionage threats. It is clearly visible in the language of the training materials concerned with “secret service methods of the intelligence activity” as well as in the documents on operational activities of the Security Service in relation to foreigners. The level of interest the USA had in Poland was mirrored in the classification of diplomatic posts, according to which Warsaw occupied the second place (the so-called Group “B”) on the three-point scale. The CIA experienced spectacular defeats during their activity in Poland: supporting the Polish underground anti-communist organisation Freedom and Independence and the so-called Munich-Berg episode (both cases took place in the 1950s). The text focuses only on selected issues related to the espionage activities against Poland. Similarly, the analysis of the problem has been based on selected sources, which has limited the research scope - however, it was not the aim of the author to present the espionage activity against Poland in a comprehensive way. In order to assess the real threat posed by the espionage activity, one should analyse the case of persons convicted for espionage in the period 1944-1989, as the available quantitative data, mentioned in the text, cannot constitute an explicit benchmark for the scale of espionage activity. The inaccuracies in the interpretation of data and variables, which can affect the evaluation of this phenomenon, have been pointed out in the text.

Changes in the storage and sink of carbon dioxide in subsurface atmospheres controlled by climate-driven processes: the case of the Ojo Guareña karst system

A comprehensive environmental monitoring program was conducted in the Ojo Guareña cave system (Spain), one of the longest cave systems in Europe, to assess the magnitude of the spatiotemporal changes in carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the cave–soil–atmosphere profile. The key climate-driven processes involved in gas exchange, primarily gas diffusion and cave ventilation due to advective forces, were characterized. The spatial distributions of both processes were described through measurements of CO2 and its carbon isotopic signal (δ13C[CO2]) from exterior, soil and cave air samples analyzed by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The trigger mechanisms of air advection (temperature or air density differences or barometric imbalances) were controlled by continuous logging systems. Radon monitoring was also used to characterize the changing airflow that results in a predictable seasonal or daily pattern of CO2 concentrations and its carbon isotopic signal. Large daily oscillations of CO2 levels, ranging from 680 to 1900 ppm day−1 on average, were registered during the daily oscillations of the exterior air temperature around the cave air temperature. These daily variations in CO2 concentration were unobservable once the outside air temperature was continuously below the cave temperature and a prevailing advective-renewal of cave air was established, such that the daily-averaged concentrations of CO2 reached minimum values close to atmospheric background. The daily pulses of CO2 and other tracer gases such as radon (222Rn) were smoothed in the inner cave locations, where fluctuation of both gases was primarily correlated with medium-term changes in air pressure. A pooled analysis of these data provided evidence that atmospheric air that is inhaled into dynamically ventilated caves can then return to the lower troposphere as CO2-rich cave air.

The Use of Cryogenic Air in Supplied Air Respiratory Protection

The Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response (MINER) Act of 2006 implemented new regulations in the underground coal mining industry that allow for the certification of non-compressed gas equipment for respiratory protection in underground coal mines. NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Biomedical Research and Engineering Laboratory (BRL) is investigating the potential to expand cryogenic air supply systems into the mining and general industries. These investigations have, so far, resulted in four separate comparison and hardware development programs. The Propellant Handlers Ensemble (PHE) and Level “A” Ensemble Comparison (LAE): This study compared worker thermal stress while using the industry standard Level A hazardous material handling ensemble as opposed to using the similarly protective Propellant Handler’s Ensemble (PHE) that utilizes a cryogenic air supply pack, known as an Environmental Control Unit (ECU) as opposed to the compressed air Self Contained Breathing Apparatus (SCBA) used in the LAE. The research found that, in a 102°F environment, test subjects experienced significantly decreased body temperature increases, significantly decreased heart rate increases, and decreased sweat loss while performing a standard work routine while using the PHE, compared to the same test subjects performing the same routine while using the LAE. The Cryogenic Refuge Alternative Supply System (CryoRASS) project: The MINER Act of 2006 requires the operators of underground coal mines to provide refuge alternatives that can provide a safe atmosphere for workers for up to 96 hours in the event of a mine emergency. The CryoRASS project retrofitted an existing refuge chamber with a liquid air supply instead of the standard compressed air supply system and performed a 96 hour test. The CryoRASS system demonstrated that it provided a larger air supply in a significantly smaller footprint area, provided humidity and temperature control, and maintained acceptable oxygen and carbon dioxide levels in the chamber for the required amount of time. SCBA and Mine Rescue System (CryoBA/CryoASFS) Another requirement of the MINER Act is that additional emergency breathing equipment must be staged along evacuation routes to supplement the Self Contained/Self Rescue (SCSR) devices that are now required. The BRL has developed an SCBA known as the Cryogenic Breathing Apparatus (CryoBA), that has the ability to provide 2 hours of breathing air, a refill capability, and some cooling for the user. Cryogenic Air Storage and Filling Stations (CryoASFS) would be positioned in critical areas to extend evacuation time. The CryoASFS stations have a significantly smaller footprint and larger air storage capacity to similar compressed air systems. The CryoBA pack is currently undergoing NIOSH certification testing. Technical challenges associated with liquid breathing air systems: Research done by the BRL has also addressed three major technical challenges involved with the widespread use of liquid breathing air. The BRL developed a storage Dewar fitted with a Cryorefrigerator that has stored liquid air for four months with no appreciable oxygen enrichment due to differential evaporation. Testing of liquid breathing air was material and time intensive. A BRL contract developed a system that only required 1 liter of air and five minutes of time compared to the 10 liters of air and 75 minutes of time required by the old method. The BRL also developed a simple and cost effective method of manufacturing liquid air that joins a liquid oxygen tanker with a liquid nitrogen tanker through an orifice controlled “Y” fitting, mixing the two components, and depositing the mixed breathing air in a separate tanker.

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.

Gastric evacuation and feeding in the gilthead sea bream reared under semi-intensive conditions

Gastric evacuation rates of the gilthead sea bream, Sparus aurata, fed with commercial pelleted food and polychaetes (Nereis diversicolor) were determined under experimental conditions. The estimated gastric evacuation rate for pelleted food was 7.97% h(-1), with a total time of digestion of approximately 9 h. The respective values for the natural food were 6.24% h(-1), with a total digestion time of approximately 12 h. The daily consumption of fish reared in earth ponds in a semi-intensive aquaculture facility was estimated through 24h cycles performed between April and August. The daily consumption varied from 18.58 to 31.98 mg g(-1). There was a constant increase in the average daily consumption per individual of 1.8-4.6 g (dry weight). During these cycles, samples of stomachs were taken and the contents preserved for further observation. The feeding behaviour of the reared fish was compared with a fish sample caught in the Ria Formosa lagoon. No common species were found between samples. A total of 38 prey were identified, which suggests that the gilthead sea bream is a non-specific predator. Despite the high abundance of natural prey in the ponds, the dependence of sea bream on pelleted food was high.

A crowd of pedestrian dynamics – the perspective of physics.

Walking is the most basic form of transportation. A good understanding of pedestrian’s dynamics is essential in meeting the mobility and accessibility needs of people by providing a safe and quick walking flow. Advances in the dynamics of pedestrians in crowds are of great theoretical and practical interest, as they lead to new insights regarding the planning of pedestrian facilities, crowd management, or evacuation analysis. As a physicist, I would like to put forward some additional theoretical and practical contributions that could be interesting to explore, regarding the perspective of physics on about human crowd dynamics (panic as a specific form of behavior excluded).