Transition to parenthood: The role of social interaction and endogenous networks

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdepen- dencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics regarding age, intended education and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members then may influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social inter- actions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria over the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

Summary

Retrospective feasibility study of simultaneous integrated boost in cervical cancer using Tomotherapy: the impact of organ motion and tumor regression.

BACKGROUND: Whole pelvis intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is increasingly being used to treat cervical cancer aiming to reduce side effects. Encouraged by this, some groups have proposed the use of simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) to target the tumor, either to get a higher tumoricidal effect or to replace brachytherapy. Nevertheless, physiological organ movement and rapid tumor regression throughout treatment might substantially reduce any benefit of this approach. PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical target volume - simultaneous integrated boost (CTV-SIB) regression and motion during chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) for cervical cancer, and to monitor treatment progress dosimetrically and volumetrically to ensure treatment goals are met. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Ten patients treated with standard doses of CRT and brachytherapy were retrospectively re-planned using a helical Tomotherapy - SIB technique for the hypothetical scenario of this feasibility study. Target and organs at risk (OAR) were contoured on deformable fused planning-computed tomography and megavoltage computed tomography images. The CTV-SIB volume regression was determined. The center of mass (CM) was used to evaluate the degree of motion. The Dice's similarity coefficient (DSC) was used to assess the spatial overlap of CTV-SIBs between scans. A cumulative dose-volume histogram modeled estimated delivered doses. RESULTS: The CTV-SIB relative reduction was between 31 and 70%. The mean maximum CM change was 12.5, 9, and 3 mm in the superior-inferior, antero-posterior, and right-left dimensions, respectively. The CTV-SIB-DSC approached 1 in the first week of treatment, indicating almost perfect overlap. CTV-SIB-DSC regressed linearly during therapy, and by the end of treatment was 0.5, indicating 50% discordance. Two patients received less than 95% of the prescribed dose. Much higher doses to the OAR were observed. A multiple regression analysis showed a significant interaction between CTV-SIB reduction and OAR dose increase. CONCLUSIONS: The CTV-SIB had important regression and motion during CRT, receiving lower therapeutic doses than expected. The OAR had unpredictable shifts and received higher doses. The use of SIB without frequent adaptation of the treatment plan exposes cervical cancer patients to an unpredictable risk of under-dosing the target and/or overdosing adjacent critical structures. In that scenario, brachytherapy continues to be the gold standard approach.

Endogenous and exogenous regulation of monocyte responses

Mononuclear phagocytes are essential for the innate response to pathogens and for the repair of injured tissue. The cells - which can be broadly divided into circulating monocytes and tissue-resident macrophages and dendritic cells - are selectively equipped to protect the host by mediating pleiotropic and tissue-specific functions. The properties of some mononuclear phagocytes, however, also contribute to the development and the progression of inflammatory diseases. Consequently, current research investigates mononuclear phagocytes into greater detail with the aim to clarify their contributions to pathophysiologic inflammation. Recent studies indicate that circulating monocytes can be divided into distinct populations, which differ in their tissue tropism and functional commitment. Also, tissue macrophages and dendritic cells have been found to adopt context-dependent phenotypes, which can range from "pro-" to "anti-" inflammatory. These findings have markedly contributed to our understanding of the functional heterogeneity of mononuclear phagocyte populations. Yet, in many cases, the factors that control the quantity and/or quality of phagocyte responses in vivo remain largely unknown. The goal of this thesis was to identify cell endogenous and cell exogenous factors that dictate the fate of mononuclear phagocyte populations. To this end we made use of the recent identification of phenotypic markers, which permit to track mononuclear cell types and their lineage precursors. A main approach consisted to define candidate regulatory factors of certain types of mononuclear phagocytes and then to manipulate the expression of these factors in mice so as to address their functions and causal contributions on mononuclear phagocyte lineages in vivo. Human patient material was further used to validate findings. First, we investigated a microRNA and a transcription factor as candidate cell endogenous co- regulators of monocyte subset responses. Second, we studied a tumor-derived hormone as a candidate exogenous factor that amplifies the production of a population of mononuclear phagocytes with tumor-promoting functions. The endogenous and exogenous factors identified in this research appear to act as effective regulators of mononuclear phagocyte responses in vivo and thus may be exploited in future therapeutic approaches to regulate disease-associated inflammation. - Les phagocytes mononucléaires sont essentiels pour la réponse innée aux pathogènes et pour la réparation des tissus lésés. Ces cellules - qui peuvent être largement divisées en deux groupes, les monocytes circulant dans le sang et les macrophages et cellules dendritiques résidant dans les tissus - sont capables de protéger l'hôte en exerçant des fonctions pléiotropiques. Cependant, les propriétés de certains phagocytes mononucléaires contribuent également au développement et à la progression des maladies inflammatoires. Par conséquent, la recherche actuelle étudie les phagocytes mononucléaires plus en détail afin de clarifier leurs contributions à l'inflammation pathophysiologique. Des études récentes indiquent que les monocytes circulants peuvent être divisés en populations distinctes, qui diffèrent dans leur tropisme tissulaire et dans leurs fonctions biologiques. En outre, les macrophages et les cellules dendritiques peuvent adopter des phénotypes dépendants de l'environnement dans lequel ils se trouvent; ces phénotypes peuvent aller du type "pro-" au type "anti-" inflammatoire. Ces récentes découvertes ont contribué à notre compréhension sur l'hétérogénéité fonctionnelle des phagocytes mononucléaires. Pourtant, dans de nombreux cas, les facteurs qui contrôlent la quantité et/ou la qualité des réponses produites par ces cellules restent encore largement inconnus. L'objectif de cette thèse a consisté à identifier de nouveaux facteurs (endogènes ou exogènes) qui contrôlent les phagocytes mononucléaires. Dans ce but, nous avons fait usage de l'identification récente de marqueurs qui permettent d'identifier différents types de phagocytes mononucléaires ainsi que des cellules (souches) dont ils sont issus. Notre approche a consisté à définir des facteurs candidats qui pourraient contrôler certains phagocytes mononucléaires, puis à manipuler l'expression de ces facteurs chez la souris de manière à tester leurs fonctions et leur contributions in vivo. Nous avons également utilisé des échantillons biologiques de patients pour vérifier nos résultats chez l'homme. Tout d'abord, nous avons étudié un microARN et un facteur de transcription pour déterminer si ces deux facteurs opèrent en tant que co-régulateurs d'un certain type de monocytes. Deuxièmement, nous avons considéré une hormone produite par certaines tumeurs afin d'examiner son rôle dans la production d'une population de macrophages qui favorisent la progression des tumeurs. Les facteurs endogènes et exogènes identifiés dans cette recherche semblent agir comme régulateurs dominants de réponses produites par certains phagocytes mononucléaires et pourraient donc être exploités dans de futures approches thérapeutiques afin de contrôler les réponses immunitaires inflammatoires associées a certaines maladies.

Regression analysis of spatial data.

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

Job switching in ants: role of a kinase

Reproductive division of labour is a defining characteristic of eusociality in insect societies. The task of reproduction is performed by the fertile males and queens of the colony, while the non-fertile female worker caste performs all other tasks related to colony upkeep, foraging and nest defence. Division of labour, or polyethism, within the worker caste is organized such that specific tasks are performed by discrete groups of individuals. Ordinarily, workers of one group will not participate in the tasks of other groups making the groups of workers behaviourally distinct. In some eusocial species, this has led to the evolution of a remarkable diversity of subcaste morphologies within the worker caste, and a division of labour amongst the subcastes. This caste polyethism is best represented in many species of ants where a smaller-bodied minor subcaste typically performs foraging duties while larger individuals of the major subcaste are tasked with nest defence. Recent work suggests that polyethism in the worker caste is influenced by an evolutionarily conserved, yet diversely regulated, gene called foraging (for), which encodes a cGMP-dependent protein kinase (PKG). Additionally, flexibility in the activity of this enzyme allows for workers from one task group to assist the workers of other task groups in times of need during the colony's life.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

In vivo activation of melanoma-specific CD8(+) T cells by endogenous tumor antigen and peptide vaccines. A comparison to virus-specific T cells.

Many new types of vaccines against infectious or malignant diseases are currently being proposed. Careful characterization of the induced immune response is required in assessing their efficiency. While in most studies human tumor antigen-specific T cells are analyzed after in vitro re-stimulation, we investigated these T cells directly ex vivo using fluorescent tetramers. In peripheral blood lymphocytes from untreated melanoma patients with advanced disease, a fraction of tumor antigen (Melan-A/MART-1)-specific T cells were non-naive, thus revealing tumor-driven immune activation. After immunotherapy with synthetic peptides plus adjuvant, we detected tumor antigen-specific T cells that proliferated and differentiated to memory cells in vivo in some melanoma patients. However, these cells did not present the features of effector cells as found in cytomegalovirus specific T cells analyzed in parallel. Thus, peptide plus adjuvant vaccines can lead to activation and expansion of antigen specific CD8(+) T cells in PBL. Differentiation to protective CD8(+) effector cells may, however, require additional vaccine components that stimulate T cells more efficiently, a major challenge for the development of future immunotherapy.

Peripheral T cell activation and deletion induced by transfer of lymphocyte subsets expressing endogenous or exogenous mouse mammary tumor virus.

Murine T cell reactivity with products of the minor lymphocyte stimulatory (Mls) locus correlates with the expression of particular variable (V) domains of the T cell receptor (TCR) beta chain. It was recently demonstrated that Mls antigens are encoded by an open reading frame (ORF) in the 3' long terminal repeat of either endogenous or exogenous mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV). Immature thymocytes expressing reactive TCR-V beta domains are clonally deleted upon exposure to endogenous Mtv's. Mature T cells proliferate vigorously in response to Mls-1a (Mtv-7) in vivo, but induction of specific anergy and deletion after exposure to Mtv-7-expressing cells in the periphery has also been described. We show here that B cells and CD8+ (but not CD4+) T cells from Mtv-7+ mice efficiently induce peripheral deletion of reactive T cells upon transfer to Mtv-7- recipients, whereas only B cells stimulate specific T cell proliferation in vivo. In contrast to endogenous Mtv-7, transfer of B, CD4+, or CD8+ lymphocyte subsets from mice maternally infected with MMTV(SW), an infectious homologue of Mtv-7, results in specific T cell deletion in the absence of a detectable proliferative response. Finally, we show by secondary transfers of infected cells that exogenous MMTV(SW) is transmitted multidirectionally between lymphocyte subsets and ultimately to the mammary gland. Collectively our data demonstrate heterogeneity in the expression and/or presentation of endogenous and exogenous MMTV ORF by lymphocyte subsets and emphasize the low threshold required for induction of peripheral T cell deletion by these gene products.

Native Grassland Conversion: the Roles of Risk Intervention and Switching Costs

We develop a real option model of the irreversible native grassland conversion decision. Upon plowing, native grassland can be followed by either a permanent cropping system or a system in which land is put under cropping (respectively, grazing) whenever crop prices are high (respectively, low). Switching costs are incurred upon alternating between cropping and grazing. The effects of risk intervention in the form of crop insurance subsidies are studied, as are the effects of cropping innovations that reduce switching costs. We calibrate the model by using cropping return data for South Central North Dakota from 1989 to 2012. Simulations show that a risk intervention that offsets 20% of a cropping return shortfall increases the sod-busting cost threshold, below which native sod will be busted, by 41% (or $43.7/acre). Omitting cropping return risk across time underestimates this sod-busting cost threshold by 23% (or $24.35/acre), and hence underestimates the native sod conversion caused by crop production.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case