Analysis of Forest Fires by means of Pseudo Phase Plane and Multidimensional Scaling Methods

Forest fires dynamics is often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations in space and time, and long memory, which are features also associated with fractional order systems. In this paper a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, covering the period from 1980 up to 2012, is tackled. The events are modelled as time series of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. The time series are viewed as the system output and are interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics. In the first phase we use the pseudo phase plane (PPP) technique to describe forest fires dynamics. In the second phase we use multidimensional scaling (MDS) visualization tools. The PPP allows the representation of forest fires dynamics in two-dimensional space, by taking time series representative of the phenomena. The MDS approach generates maps where objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to better understand forest fires behaviour.

Evaluation of different methods for Plasmodia detection, in well defined population groups in an endemic area of Brazil

In Brazil, more than 500,000 new cases of malaria were notified in 1992. Plasmodium falciparum and P.vivax are the responsible species for 99.3% of the cases. For adequate treatment, precoce diagnosis is necessary. In this work, we present the results of the traditional Plasmodia detection method, thick blood film (TBF), and the results of alternative methods: Immunofluorescence assay (IFA) with polyclonal antibody and Quantitative Buffy Coat method (QBC)® in a well defined population groups. The analysis were done in relation to the presence or absence of malaria clinical symptoms. Also different classes of immunoglobulins anti-P.falciparum were quantified for the global analysis of the results, mainly in the discrepant results. We concluded that alternative methods are more sensitive than TBF and that the association of epidemiological, clinical and laboratory findings is necessary to define the presence of malaria.

Terapêuticas antigénio-especificas no tratamento das doenças desmielinizantes: estudos sobre a vacinação com ADN e a descoberta de um novo alvo antigénico

RESUMO A Esclerose Múltipla (EM) é uma doença desmielinizante crónica do Sistema Nervoso Central (SNC), provocada, em grande parte, por um ataque imuno-mediado contra diversos elementos da bainha de mielina. Dentro dos alvos antigénicos desta resposta autoimune, vários componentes proteicos e lipídicos da mielina têm vindo a ser identificados ao longo dos anos, entre os quais se destacam a proteína básica de mielina(MBP), glicoproteína ligodendrocitária da mielina (MOG), proteína proteolipídica (PLP) e glicoproteína associada à mielina (MAG). Com o desenvolvimento do modelo animal de Encefalomielite Autoimune Experimental (EAE), diversas terapias antigénio-específicas foram desenhadas, baseadas na modificação benéfica da resposta autoimune contra a mielina, tais como a administração de mielina ou seus componentes, os copolímeros terapêuticos, os ligandos peptídeos alterados e, recentemente, a vacinação com ácido desoxirribonucleico (ADN) codificador de proteínas de mielina, integrado em plasmídeos e purificado para administração parentérica. Neste trabalho, apresentamos os resultados de um extenso conjunto de experiências, subordinadas a dois temas fundamentais: 1) avaliação do potencial terapêutico, e dos mecanismos de acção, da vacinação tolerizadora com ADN codificador de proteínas de mielina (MBP, MOG, PLP, MAG) na EAE, e da associação desta vacinação com a administração de ADN de citocinas Th2, ou de oligonucleótidos imunomoduladores; 2) identificação e caracterização da resposta imune contra um novo componente da mielina com potencial antigénico, a proteína inibidora do recrescimento axonal, Nogo-A. No que respeita à vacinação com ADN, os nossos resultados comprovam a eficácia desta terapêutica antigénio-específica na prevenção e tratamento da EAE. Os seus mecanismos de acção incluem, entre outros, a supressão anérgica da proliferação antigénioespecífica dos linfócitos T anti-mielina (no modo de prevenção da doença), o enviesamento Th2 da resposta imune (quando co-administrada com a vacina de ADN codificadora da citocina IL-4, funcionando como terapia génica local), e a redução da diversificação de epítopos da resposta humoral anti-mielina, avaliada através de myelin spotted arrays. A associação das vacinas de ADN com oligonucleótidos imunomoduladores GpG, desenvolvidos para contrariar as sequências CpG imunoestimuladoras presentes no vector de vacinação, levou à melhoria da sua eficácia terapêutica, devida, provavelmente, ao efeito estimulador preferencial dos oligonucleótidos GpG sobre linfócitos Th2 e sobre células reguladoras NK-T. Com base nestes resultados a vacinação com ADN foi desenvolvida para o tratamento da EM em humanos, com ensaios clínicos a decorrerem neste momento. Em relação à proteína Nogo-A, estudos de estrutura primária e de previsão de antigenicidade identificaram a região Nogo-66 como alvo antigénico potencial para a EAE. Nas estirpes de ratinho SJL/J e C57BL/6, fomos capazes de induzir sinais clínicos e histológicos de EAE após imunização com os epítopos encefalitogénicos Nogo1-22, Nogo23- 44 e Nogo45-66, utilizando protocolos de quebra de tolerância imune. Ao mesmo tempo, identificámos e caracterizámos uma resposta linfocitária T específica contra os antigénios contidos na região Nogo-66, e uma resposta linfocitária B com diversificação intra e intermolecular a vários determinantes presentes noutras proteínas da mielina. A transferência adoptiva de linhas celulares Th2 anti-Nogo45-66, levou à melhoria clínica e histológica da EAE em animais recipientes induzidos com outros antigénios de mielina, após migração destas células para o SNC. Estes dados comprovam a importância da Nogo-66 como antigénio na EAE, e a eficácia de terapias antigénio-específicas nela baseadas. No seu conjunto, os nossos resultados confirmam o potencial terapêutico das vacinas de ADN codificadoras de proteínas de mielina, bem como a importância dos encefalitogénios contidos na proteína Nogo-A para a fisiopatologia da EAE e da EM, com eventual relevância para o desenvolvimento de novas terapias antigénio-específicas. O aperfeiçoamento futuro destas terapias poderá levar, eventualmente, a uma capacidade de manipulação da resposta imune que permita o tratamento eficaz das doenças inflamatórias desmielinizantes, como a Esclerose Múltipla. ABSTRACT Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating disease of the Central Nervous System (CNS), caused, mainly, by an immune-mediated attack against several elements of the myelin sheath. Among the antigenic targets for this autoimmune response, several proteic and lipidic myelin components have been identified throughout the years, of which myelin basic protein (MBP), myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG), proteolipidic protein (PLP), and myelin associated glycoprotein (MAG) are the best characterized. With the development of the animal model for MS, Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis (EAE), several antigen-specific therapies have been designed, based on beneficial modifications of the autoimmune response against myelin. These have included myelin and myelin component administration, therapeutic copolymers, altered peptide ligands and, more recently, vaccination with myelin-protein encoding deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), integrated into plasmids and purified for parenteral administration. In this work we present the results of an extensive series of experiments, subordinate to two fundamental areas: 1) evaluating the therapeutic potential, and mechanisms of action, of tolerizing myelin protein (MBP, MOG, PLP, MAG) DNA vaccination in EAE, alone and in association with Th2 cytokine DNA administration, or immunomodulatory oligonucleotides; 2) identifying and characterizing the immuneresponse against a new myelin component with antigenic potential, the axonal regrowth inhibitor Nogo-A. Regarding DNA vaccination, our results prove the efficacy of this antigen-specific therapy for the prevention and treatment of EAE. Its mechanisms of action include, among others, anergic suppression of antigen-specific T-cell proliferation against myelin (in prevention mode), Th2 biasing of the immune response (when co-administered with the IL- 4 codifying DNA vaccine, acting as local gene therapy), and reduction of epitope spreading of the anti-myelin antibody response, assessed by myelin spotted arrays. The combination of myelin DNA vaccination with the administration of GpG immunomodulatory oligonucleotides, designed to counteract immunostimulatory CpG motifs present in the vaccination vector, led to an improvement in therapeutic efficacy, probably due to the preferential stimulatory effect of GpG oligonucleotides on Th2 lymphocytes and on regulatory NK-T cells. Based on these results, tolerizing DNA vaccination is being developed for human use, with ongoing clinical trials. As concerns the Nogo-A protein, based on studies of primary structure and prediction of antigenicity, we identified the Nogo-66 region (responsible for the most of the inhibitory capacity of this protein) as a potential antigenic target for EAE. In the SJL/Jand C57BL/6 mouse strains, we were able to induce clinical and histological signs of EAE,after immunization with the encefalitogenic epitopes Nogo1-22, Nogo23-44 and Nogo45-66,using a tolerance breakdown protocol. Concomitantly, we identified and characterized a specific T cell response against these antigens, together with a B cell response which showed extensive intra and intermolecular epitope spread to several determinants present in other myelin proteins. Adoptive transfer of nti-Nogo45-66 Th2 cell lines resulted in clinical and histological improvement of EAE in recipient animals induced with other myelin antigens, after intraparenchymal CNS migration of anti-Nogo cells. These data confirm the relevance of Nogo-66 as an antigen in EAE, as well as the efficacy of antigenspecific therapies based on the response against this protein.In conclusion, our results substantiate the therapeutic potential of myelin-encoding DNA vaccination, as well as the importance of encefalitogenic epitopes present in the Nogo-A protein for the pathophysiology of EAE and MS, with potential relevance for the creation of new antigen specific-therapies. The future development of these therapies may eventually lead to a degree of manipulation of the immune response that allows the effective treatment of autoimmune, inflammatory, demyelinating diseases, such as Multiple Sclerosis.

New ultrasonic-based methods in proteomics

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Bioquímica pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.A presente dissertação foi preparada no âmbito do convénio bilateral existente entre a Universidade Nova de Lisboa e a Universidade de Vigo.

Using Baseline Methods to Identify Non-technical Losses in the Context of Smart Grids

Demand response has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and smart grid environments. In addition to the importance that has been given to the development of business models for integrating demand response, several methods have been developed to evaluate the consumers’ performance after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper uses those performance evaluation methods, namely customer baseline load calculation methods, to determine the expected consumption in each period of the consumer historic data. In the cases in which there is a certain difference between the actual consumption and the estimated consumption, the consumer is identified as a potential cause of non-technical losses. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method to real consumption data.

Consumers Performance Evaluation of the Participation in Demand Response Programs Using Baseline Methods

Demand response has gain increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets environment. The use of demand resources is also advantageous in the context of smart grid operation. In addition to the need of new business models for integrating demand response, adequate methods are necessary for an accurate determination of the consumers’ performance evaluation after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper makes a comparison between some of the existing baseline methods related to the consumers’ performance evaluation, comparing the results obtained with these methods and also with a method proposed by the authors of the paper. A case study demonstrates the application of the referred methods to real consumption data belonging to a consumer connected to a distribution network.

Analysis of Consumption Data to Detect Commercial Losses Using Performance Evaluation Methods in a Smart Grid

Electric power networks, namely distribution networks, have been suffering several changes during the last years due to changes in the power systems operation, towards the implementation of smart grids. Several approaches to the operation of the resources have been introduced, as the case of demand response, making use of the new capabilities of the smart grids. In the initial levels of the smart grids implementation reduced amounts of data are generated, namely consumption data. The methodology proposed in the present paper makes use of demand response consumers’ performance evaluation methods to determine the expected consumption for a given consumer. Then, potential commercial losses are identified using monthly historic consumption data. Real consumption data is used in the case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

A study on parallel versus sequential relational fuzzy clustering methods

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Industry level foresight: designing foresight methods for Lithuanian energy sector

Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies,6,IET, pp.9-51

Extremum estimators and stochastic optimization methods

Submitted in partial fulfillment for the Requirements for the Degree of PhD in Mathematics, in the Speciality of Statistics in the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Recommending media content based on machine learning methods

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Comparison of different methods for work accidents investigation in hospitals: A Portuguese case study

BACKGROUND: The hospital environment has many occupational health risks that predispose healthcare workers to various kinds of work accidents. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to compare different methods for work accidents investigation and to verify their suitability in hospital environment. METHODS: For this purpose, we selected three types of accidents that were related with needle stick, worker fall and inadequate effort/movement during the mobilization of patients. A total of thirty accidents were analysed with six different work accidents investigation methods. RESULTS: The results showed that organizational factors were the group of causes which had the greatest impact in the three types of work accidents. CONCLUSIONS: The methods selected to be compared in this paper are applicable and appropriate for the work accidents investigation in hospitals. However, the Registration, Research and Analysis of Work Accidents method (RIAAT) showed to be an optimal technique to use in this context.

Domestic Rhodnius ecuadoriensis (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) infestation in Northern Peru: a comparative trial of detection methods during a six-month follow-up

Two passive methods in the assessment of intradomiciliary infestation by Rhodnius ecuadoriensis were tested: (i) the Gomes Nuñez sensor box (GN), (ii) sheets of white typing paper and (iii) one active timed manual method. The study was carried out in the Alto Chicama River Valley, Province of Gran Chimú, Department of La Libertad. The study design consisted of an initial searching of triatomines inside of the domestic environment by the manual capture active procedure (man/hour) covering all the studied houses. Then, matched pairs of GN boxes and paper sheets were simultaneously installed in the bedrooms of 207 households distributed in 19 localities. A comparative prospective trial of these passive detection devices were monitored at 2, 4 and, finally 6 months follow-up. Parasitological Trypanosoma rangeli and/or T. cruzi infections were investigated in two houses with high level of infestation by R. ecuadoriensis. 16.9% of the 207 households investigated by an initial active manual method were infested with R. ecuadoriensis. The proportion of infested houses fluctuated from 6.2 to 55.5% amongst the 19 localities investigated. T. rangeli natural infection was detected in R. ecuadoriensis specimens collected in two households. Parasite rates in the bugs ranged from 16.6 to 21.7% respectively. The most striking fact was an average rate of salivary gland infection ranging from 7.4 to 8.3%. At the end of the sixth month period, a cumulative incidence of 31.4% of positive GN boxes against 15.9% for paper sheets was recorded. All three methods combined detected domestic infestation in 129 (62.3%) of the 207 houses studied in the 19 localities. The range of houses infested varies from 6.7% to 92.9%. In areas with low bug density infestation rates, the methodology experienced in our studies, seems to be the best choice for investigations on domestic R. ecuadoriensis populations.