An inverse method for determining source characteristics for emergency response applications

Following a malicious or accidental atmospheric release in an outdoor environment it is essential for first responders to ensure safety by identifying areas where human life may be in danger. For this to happen quickly, reliable information is needed on the source strength and location, and the type of chemical agent released. We present here an inverse modelling technique that estimates the source strength and location of such a release, together with the uncertainty in those estimates, using a limited number of measurements of concentration from a network of chemical sensors considering a single, steady, ground-level source. The technique is evaluated using data from a set of dispersion experiments conducted in a meteorological wind tunnel, where simultaneous measurements of concentration time series were obtained in the plume from a ground-level point-source emission of a passive tracer. In particular, we analyze the response to the number of sensors deployed and their arrangement, and to sampling and model errors. We find that the inverse algorithm can generate acceptable estimates of the source characteristics with as few as four sensors, providing these are well-placed and that the sampling error is controlled. Configurations with at least three sensors in a profile across the plume were found to be superior to other arrangements examined. Analysis of the influence of sampling error due to the use of short averaging times showed that the uncertainty in the source estimates grew as the sampling time decreased. This demonstrated that averaging times greater than about 5min (full scale time) lead to acceptable accuracy.

A police state? The Nyasaland emergency and colonial intelligence.

The Nyasaland Emergency in 1959 proved a decisive turning point in the history of the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, which from 1953 to 1963 brought together the territories of Northern Rhodesia (Zambia), Southern Rhodesia (Zambia) and Nyasaland (Malawi) under a settler-dominated federal government. The British and Nyasaland governments defended the emergency by claiming to have gathered intelligence which showed that the Nyasaland African Congress was preparing a campaign of sabotage and murder. The Devlin Commission, appointed to investigate the emergency, dismissed the evidence of a ‘murder plot’, criticised the Nyasaland government's handling of the Emergency and, notoriously, described Nyasaland as a ‘police state’. This article has two principal aims. First, using the recently declassified papers of the Intelligence and Security Department (ISD) of the Colonial Office, it seeks to provide the first detailed account of what the British government knew of the intelligence relating to the ‘murder plot’ and how they assessed it, prior to the outbreak of the emergency. It demonstrates that officials in the ISD and members of the Security Service adopted a far more cautious attitude towards the intelligence than did Conservative ministers, and had greater qualms about allowing it into the public domain to justify government policy. Second, the article examines the implications of Devlin's use of the phrase ‘police state’ for Nyasaland and for the late colonial state in general. It contrasts Devlin's use of the term with that of security experts in the ISD, who routinely applied it to policing systems that diverged from their own preferred model. Hence, whereas Devlin compared policing in Nyasaland unfavourably with that in Southern Rhodesia, implying, ironically, that Nyasaland was ‘under-policed’ (because there were fewer police per head of population in Nyasaland than in Southern Rhodesia), the ISD regarded the intensive system of policing operated by the British South Africa Police in Southern Rhodesia as characteristic of a ‘police state’. The article suggests that the frequent use of the term ‘police state’ was indicative of broader anxieties about what Britain's legacy would be for the post-independence African state.

Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department

Accident and Emergency (A&E) units provide a route for patients requiring urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim is to explore the factors which contribute to such delays. The paper discusses the formulation and calibration of a system dynamics model of the interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital processes and bed numbers; and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a number of the key parameters. Two significant findings have policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that reductions in bed numbers do not increase waiting times for emergency admissions, their effect instead being to increase sharply the number of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will merely succeed in transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient group.

Protocol for ACCESS: a qualitative study exploring barriers and facilitators to accessing the emergency contraceptive pill from community pharmacies in Australia

Introduction The rate of unplanned pregnancy in Australia remains high, which has contributed to Australia having one of the highest abortion rates of developed countries with an estimated 1 in 5 women having an abortion. The emergency contraceptive pill (ECP) offers a safe way of preventing unintended pregnancy after unprotected sex has occurred. While the ECP has been available over-the-counter in Australian pharmacies for over a decade, its use has not significantly increased. This paper presents a protocol for a qualitative study that aims to identify the barriers and facilitators to accessing the ECP from community pharmacies in Australia. Methods and analysis Data will be collected through one-on-one interviews that are semistructured and in-depth. Partnerships have been established with 2 pharmacy groups and 2 women's health organisations to aid with the recruitment of women and pharmacists for data collection purposes. Interview questions explore domains from the Theoretical Domains Framework in order to assess the factors aiding and/or hindering access to ECP from community pharmacies. Data collected will be analysed using deductive content analysis. The expected benefits of this study are that it will help develop evidence-based workforce interventions to strengthen the capacity and performance of community pharmacists as key ECP providers. Ethics and dissemination The findings will be disseminated to the research team and study partners, who will brainstorm ideas for interventions that would address barriers and facilitators to access identified from the interviews. Dissemination will also occur through presentations and peer-reviewed publications and the study participants will receive an executive summary of the findings. The study has been evaluated and approved by the Monash Human Research Ethics Committee.

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The Survivability of Swedish Emergency Management Related Research Centers and Academic Programs : A Preliminary Sociology of Science Analysis

The Survivability of Swedish Emergency Management Related Research Centers and Academic Programs: A Preliminary Sociology of Science Analysis Despite being a relatively safe nation, Sweden has four different universities supporting four emergency management research centers and an equal and growing number of academic programs. In this paper, I discuss how these centers and programs survive within the current organizational environment. The sociology of science or the sociology of scientific knowledge perspectives should provide a theoretical guide. Yet, scholars of these perspectives have produced no research on these related topics. Thus, the population ecology model and the notion of organizational niche provide my theoretical foundation. My data come from 26 interviews from those four institutions, the gathering of documents, and observations. I found that each institution has found its own niche with little or no competition – with one exception. Three of the universities do have an international focus. Yet, their foci have minimal overlap. Finally, I suggest that key aspects of Swedish culture, including safety, and a need aid to the poor, help explain the extensive funding these centers and programs receive to survive. 

Emergency department triage scales and their components : a systematic review of the scientific evidence

Emergency department (ED) triage is used to identify patients' level of urgency and treat them based on their triage level. The global advancement of triage scales in the past two decades has generated considerable research on the validity and reliability of these scales. This systematic review aims to investigate the scientific evidence for published ED triage scales. The following questions are addressed: 1. Does assessment of individual vital signs or chief complaints affect mortality during the hospital stay or within 30 days after arrival at the ED? 2. What is the level of agreement between clinicians' triage decisions compared to each other or to a gold standard for each scale (reliability)? 3. How valid is each triage scale in predicting hospitalization and hospital mortality? A systematic search of the international literature published from 1966 through March 31, 2009 explored the British Nursing Index, Business Source Premier, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and PubMed. Inclusion was limited to controlled studies of adult patients (≥15 years) visiting EDs for somatic reasons. Outcome variables were death in ED or hospital and need for hospitalization (validity). Methodological quality and clinical relevance of each study were rated as high, medium, or low. The results from the studies that met the inclusion criteria and quality standards were synthesized applying the internationally developed GRADE system. Each conclusion was then assessed as having strong, moderately strong, limited, or insufficient scientific evidence. If studies were not available, this was also noted. We found ED triage scales to be supported, at best, by limited and often insufficient evidence. The ability of the individual vital signs included in the different scales to predict outcome is seldom, if at all, studied in the ED setting. The scientific evidence to assess interrater agreement (reliability) was limited for one triage scale and insufficient or lacking for all other scales. Two of the scales yielded limited scientific evidence, and one scale yielded insufficient evidence, on which to assess the risk of early death or hospitalization in patients assigned to the two lowest triage levels on a 5-level scale (validity).

A systematic review of triage-related interventions to improve patient flow in emergency departments

Background Overcrowding in emergency departments is a worldwide problem. A systematic literature review was undertaken to scientifically explore which interventions improve patient flow in emergency departments. Methods A systematic literature search for flow processes in emergency departments was followed by assessment of relevance and methodological quality of each individual study fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Studies were excluded if they did not present data on waiting time, length of stay, patients leaving the emergency department without being seen or other flow parameters based on a nonselected material of patients. Only studies with a control group, either in a randomized controlled trial or in an observational study with historical controls, were included. For each intervention, the level of scientific evidence was rated according to the GRADE system, launched by a WHO-supported working group. Results The interventions were grouped into streaming, fast track, team triage, point-of-care testing (performing laboratory analysis in the emergency department), and nurse-requested x-ray. Thirty-three studies, including over 800,000 patients in total, were included. Scientific evidence on the effect of fast track on waiting time, length of stay, and left without being seen was moderately strong. The effect of team triage on left without being seen was relatively strong, but the evidence for all other interventions was limited or insufficient. Conclusions Introducing fast track for patients with less severe symptoms results in shorter waiting time, shorter length of stay, and fewer patients leaving without being seen. Team triage, with a physician in the team, will probably result in shorter waiting time and shorter length of stay and most likely in fewer patients leaving without being seen. There is only limited scientific evidence that streaming of patients into different tracks, performing laboratory analysis in the emergency department or having nurses to request certain x-rays results in shorter waiting time and length of stay.

Emergency Resources in Maine

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Hospital hero: a game for reducing stress and anxiety of children while waiting in emergency room

This report tells a story which started as an idea that came to us to fight the battle-cry feeling commonly known as stress and anxiety. Before creating the solution of the idea, we first need to understand the feelings underneath and its effects on our well-being. Throughout the course of our lives, we experience states of weakness and fear. These feelings can arise, for instance, while we are in an emergency room. Needless to say, how much it would have imaginable effects on children, who are unfamiliar to such environments. We ran through a serious of scenarios to find the most suitable solution, among them the study of interaction with positive expressions by Dr. Baldwin, proved to be a valued resource. It was reduced due to its length and to be suitable to our public audience. The game was then created in order to reduce or even eliminate the stress and anxiety of children. Since the game was initially released, some modifications had been made but the original idea - interaction with positive expressions – remained. When the time came, we asked children to play one of the two versions of the game while waiting in the emergency room. This not only created a diversion for them but also a learning experience as it displayed some hospital equipment. The difference between the two versions is that one provides expressions, while the other does not. After all our hard work, we felt rewarded because the project proved its worth and we would see that in the expressions on children’s faces while they played. Most importantly, their anxiety level numbers were significantly reduced during that short period of time.