Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Small town sustainability: economic, social, and environmental innovation. 2. überarb. Aufl.

In an age where the globalization process is threatening the uniqueness and vitality of small towns, and where most urban planning discourse is directed at topics such as metropol-regions or mega-regions and world cities, the authors here emphasize the need to critically reflect on the potential of small towns. The second edition is expanded to cover the intensive development of small towns in China and Korea. In addition, the authors examine the impact of the economic crisis on small towns and the recent development of the Slow City movement.

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

Dexmedetomidine versus standard care sedation with propofol or midazolam in intensive care: an economic evaluation.

INTRODUCTION Dexmedetomidine was shown in two European randomized double-blind double-dummy trials (PRODEX and MIDEX) to be non-inferior to propofol and midazolam in maintaining target sedation levels in mechanically ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Additionally, dexmedetomidine shortened the time to extubation versus both standard sedatives, suggesting that it may reduce ICU resource needs and thus lower ICU costs. Considering resource utilization data from these two trials, we performed a secondary, cost-minimization analysis assessing the economics of dexmedetomidine versus standard care sedation. METHODS The total ICU costs associated with each study sedative were calculated on the basis of total study sedative consumption and the number of days patients remained intubated, required non-invasive ventilation, or required ICU care without mechanical ventilation. The daily unit costs for these three consecutive ICU periods were set to decline toward discharge, reflecting the observed reduction in mean daily Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS) points between the periods. A number of additional sensitivity analyses were performed, including one in which the total ICU costs were based on the cumulative sum of daily TISS points over the ICU period, and two further scenarios, with declining direct variable daily costs only. RESULTS Based on pooled data from both trials, sedation with dexmedetomidine resulted in lower total ICU costs than using the standard sedatives, with a difference of €2,656 in the median (interquartile range) total ICU costs-€11,864 (€7,070 to €23,457) versus €14,520 (€7,871 to €26,254)-and €1,649 in the mean total ICU costs. The median (mean) total ICU costs with dexmedetomidine compared with those of propofol or midazolam were €1,292 (€747) and €3,573 (€2,536) lower, respectively. The result was robust, indicating lower costs with dexmedetomidine in all sensitivity analyses, including those in which only direct variable ICU costs were considered. The likelihood of dexmedetomidine resulting in lower total ICU costs compared with pooled standard care was 91.0% (72.4% versus propofol and 98.0% versus midazolam). CONCLUSIONS From an economic point of view, dexmedetomidine appears to be a preferable option compared with standard sedatives for providing light to moderate ICU sedation exceeding 24 hours. The savings potential results primarily from shorter time to extubation. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00479661 (PRODEX), NCT00481312 (MIDEX).

Penalty Enhancement for Hate Crimes: An Economic Analysis

The issue of bias-motivated crimes has attracted consderable attention in recent years. In this paper, we develop an economic framework to analyze penalty enhancements for bias-motivated crimes. We extend the standard model by introducing two different groups of potential victims of crime, and assume that a potential offender's benefits from a crime depend on the group to which the victim belongs. We begin with the assumption that the harm to an individual victim from a bias-motivated crime is identical to that from an equivalent non-hate crime. Nonetheless, we derive the result that a pattern of crimes disproportionately targeting an identifiable group leads to greater social harm. This conclusion follows both from a model where disparities in groups' victimization probabilities lead to social losses due to fairness concerns, as well as a model where potential victims have the opportunity to undertake socially costly victimization avoidance activities. In particular, penalty enhancements can reduce the incentives for avoidance activity, and thereby protect the networks of profitable interactions that link members of different groups. We also argue that those groups that are covered by hate crime statutes tend to be those whose characteristics make it especially likely that penalty enhancement is socially optimal. Finally, we consider a number of other issues related to hate crimes, including teh choice of sanctions from behind a Rawlsian 'veil of ignorance' concerning group identity.

Crack and powder cocaine federal legislation: A sentencing disparity and potential for policy improvement

Since its introduction into the United States in the 1980s, crack cocaine has been a harsh epidemic that has taken its toll on a countless number of people. This highly addictive, cheap and readily available drug of abuse has permeated many demographic sectors, mostly in low income, lesser educated, and urban communities. This epidemic of crack cocaine use in inner city areas across the Unites States has been described as an expression of economic marginality and “social suffering” coupled with the local and international forces of drug market economies (Agar 2003). As crack cocaine is a derivative of cocaine, it utilizes the psychoactive component of the drug, but delivers it in a much stronger, quicker, and more addictive fashion. This, coupled with its ready availability and cheap price has allowed for users to not only become very addicted very quickly, but to be subject to the stringent and sometimes unequal or inconsistent punishments for possession and distribution of crack-cocaine. ^ There are many public health and social ramifications from the abuse of crack-cocaine, and these epidemics appear to target low income and minority groups. Public health issues relating to the physical, mental, and economic strain will be addressed, as well as the direct and indirect effects of the punishments that come as a result of the disparity in penalties for cocaine and crack-cocaine possession and distribution. ^ Three new policies have recently been introduced into the United Stated Congress that actively address the disparity in sentencing for drug and criminal activities. They are, (1) Powder-Crack Cocaine Penalty Equalization Act of 2009, (HR 18, 111th Cong. 2009), (2) The Drug Sentencing Reform and Cocaine Kingpin Trafficking Act of 2009, (HR 265, 111th Cong. 2009) and (3) The Justice Integrity Act of 2009, (111th Cong. 2009). ^ Although they have only been initiated, if passed, they have potential to not only eliminate the crack-cocaine disparity, but to enact laws that help those affected by this epidemic. The final and overarching goal of this paper is to analyze and ultimately choose the ideal policy that would not only eliminate the cocaine and crack disparity regardless of current or future state statutes, but will provide the best method of rehabilitation, prevention, and justice. ^

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Fiscal Federalism and Tax Equalization: The potential for progressive local taxes

We construct an empirically informed computational model of fiscal federalism, testing whether horizontal or vertical equalization can solve the fiscal externality problem in an environment in which heterogeneous agents can move and vote. The model expands on the literature by considering the case of progressive local taxation. Although the consequences of progressive taxation under fiscal federalism are well understood, they have not been studied in a context with tax equalization, despite widespread implementation. The model also expands on the literature by comparing the standard median voter model with a realistic alternative voting mechanism. We find that fiscal federalism with progressive taxation naturally leads to segregation as well as inefficient and inequitable public goods provision while the alternative voting mechanism generates more efficient, though less equitable, public goods provision. Equalization policy, under both types of voting, is largely undermined by micro-actors' choices. For this reason, the model also does not find the anticipated effects of vertical equalization discouraging public goods spending among wealthy jurisdictions and horizontal encouraging it among poor jurisdictions. Finally, we identify two optimal scenarios, superior to both complete centralization and complete devolution. These scenarios are not only Pareto optimal, but also conform to a Rawlsian view of justice, offering the best possible outcome for the worst-off. Despite offering the best possible outcomes, both scenarios still entail significant economic segregation and inequitable public goods provision. Under the optimal scenarios agents shift the bulk of revenue collection to the federal government, with few jurisdictions maintaining a small local tax.

Why do Countries Enter into Preferential Agreements on Trade in Services? Assessing the Potential for Negotiated Regulatory Convergence in Asian Services Markets

More than a third of the World Trade Organization (WTO)-notified services trade agreements (STAs) in effect over January 2008 - August 2015 have involved at least one (South or Southeast) Asian trading partner. Drawing on Baier and Bergstrand's (2004) determinants of preferential trade agreements and using the World Bank's database on the restrictiveness of domestic services regimes (Borchert et.al. 2012), we examine the potential for negotiated regulatory convergence in Asian services markets. Our results suggest that countries within Asia with high levels of pre-existing bilateral merchandise trade and wide differences in services regulatory frameworks are more likely candidates for STA formation. Such results lend support to the hypothesis that the heightened "servicification" of production generates a demand for the lowered service input costs resulting from negotiated market opening.

An Economic Derivation on Trade Coefficients under the Framework of Multi-regional I-O Analysis

The gravity model, entropy model, potential type model and others like these have been adopted to formulate interregional trade coefficients under the framework of Multi-Regional I-O (MRIO) analysis. Since most of these models are based upon analogies in physics or on statistical principles, they do not provide a theoretical explanation from the view of a firm's or individual's rational and deterministic decision making. In this paper, according to the deterministic choice theory, not only is an alternative formulation of the trade coefficients presented, but also a discussion of an appropriate definition for purchasing prices indices. Since this formulation is consistent with the MRIO system, it can be employed as a useful model-building tool in multi-regional models such as the spatial CGE model.

Economic development capitalizing on brand agriculture : turning development strategy on its head

This paper explores the possibilities of two unique Japanese concepts - the One Village One Product Movement (OVOP) and Michino Eki (or Roadside Stations) - as potential tools for bridging the gap between cities and rural areas through community-driven development. From the viewpoint of spatial economics and endogenous growth theory, this paper considers both OVOP and Michino Eki as rural development strategies of a broader nature based on "brand agriculture." Here, brand agriculture represents a general strategy for community-based rural development that identifies, cultivates and fully utilizes local resources for the development of products or services unique to a certain "village." Selected examples of OVOP and Michino Eki from Japan and developing countries are introduced.

Unlocking the Potential of Zambian Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises "Learning from the international best practices - the Southeast Asian Experience"

This paper examines the SMEs performance in Zambia and attempts to identify some practical lessons that Zambia can learn from Southeast Asian countries (with reference to Malaysia) in order to facilitate industrial development through unlocking the potential of its SMEs sector. Malaysia and Zambia were at the same level of economic development as evidenced by similar per capita incomes but Zambia has remained behind economically and its manufacturing sector has stagnated as if both countries did not have similar initial endowments. It therefore, becomes imperative that Zambia learns from such countries on how they managed to take-off economically with a focus on SME development. Training (education), research & development, market availability and technological advancement through establishment of industrial linkages coupled with cluster formation were some of the outstanding strategies identified that Zambia could use as a “key” to unlock its SMEs’ potential as it strives to meet the UN MDGs in particular halving its poverty levels by 2015 and also realizing its vision of becoming a middle income earner by 2030.

A review of the potential of renewable energy sources for the State of Jammu and Kashmir (India)

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with expected shortages. Many of its current policies and strategies are aimed at the improvement and possible maximization of energy production from the renewable sector. It is also clear that while energy-conservation and energy-efficiency can make an important contribution in the national energy strategy, renewable energies will be essential to the solution and are likely to play an increasingly important role for the growth of grid power, providing energy access, reducing consumption of fossil fuels, and helping India pursue its low carbon progressive pathway. However, most of the states in India, like the northernmost State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), have experienced an energy crisis over a sustained period of time. As India intends to be one of the emerging powers of the 21st century, it has to embark upon with these pressing issues in a more sustainable manner and accordingly initiate various renewable energy projects within these states. This paper will provide a broad-spectrum view about the energy situation within J&K and will highlight the current policies along with future strategies for the optimal utilization of renewable energy resources.

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.