Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

The national power grid study.

Vol. 1: "DOE/ERA-0056/1"; v. 2: "DOE/ERA-0056-2."

The coal future : economic and technological analysis of initiatives and innovations to secure fuel supply independence /

Includes bibliographies.

The earning power ratios of public utility companies.

Mode of access: Internet.

Electric power supply and demand 1978-1987 for the contiguous United States : as projected by the Regional Electric Reliability Councils in their April 1, 1978 long-range coordinated planning reports to the Department of Energy.

"UC-13"

Energy and society; the relation between energy, social change, and economic development

Mode of access: Internet.

Atomic power and energy resource planning /

Previously "published by the Joint Economic Committee in Federal Expenditure Policy for Economic Growth and Stability, Papers Submitted by Panelists Appearing before the Subcommittee on Fiscal Policy (Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., November 5, 1957)."

Cogeneration market assessment : phase II : an evaluation of the economic potential for cogeneration in Illinois /

Cover title: An evaluation of the economic potential for cogeneration in Illinois.

Fossil fuel-fired power plants : report to the House and Senate Environment and Energy Commissions.

The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (Illinois EPA) was asked by the Illinois General Assembly to examine whether the State should address further potential restrictions on power plant pollution. This request was made under Section 9-10 of the Environmental Protection Act (Act). This is a report of the Illinois EPA's findings. The Illinois EPA has prepared this report of its findings to date based on consideration of a broad spectrum of issues including health benefits, the impact of the reliability of the power grid, the impact on consumer utility rates and the impact on jobs and Illinois' economy. It provides an overview of the principal issues, presents a review of the information we have gathered that addresses those issues, lists information gaps, and uncertainties and finally, lists the work that remains to develop a solution that does not create unintended adverse economic consequences for the people of Illinois.

Technical and economic review : B.F. Goodrich Henry Plant circulating fluidized bed demonstration : recommendation for funding.

Cover title.

The air quality and economic implications of supplementary control systems in Illinois /

Bibliography: p. 90-92.

The riddle of the Rhine; chemical strategy in peace and war. An account of the critical struggle for power and for the decisive war initiative. The campaign fostered by the great Rhine factories, and the pressing problems which they represent. A matter of pre-eminent public interest concerning the sincerity of disarmament, the future of warfare, and the stability of peace.

"The existence of this giant monopoly [Interessen gemeinschaft der deutschen teerfarbenfabriken] raises vital military and economic questions, which are ... 'The riddle of the Rhine'."--p. 14.

Economic history pamphlets

A collection of miscellaneous pamphlets.

Major documents in American economic history.

v. 1. From an agrarian to an industrial economy (1785-1900)--v. 2. The problems of a world power (the 20th century)