Speed limit laws in America: economics, politics and geography

The regulation of speed limits in the US had been centralized at the federal level since 1974, until decisions were devolved to the states in 1995. However, the centralization debate has reemerged in recent years. Here, we conduct the first econometric analysis of the determinants of speed limit laws. By using economic, geographic and political variables, our results suggest that geography -which affects private mobility needs and preferences- is the main factor influencing speed limit laws. We also highlight the role played by political ideology, with Republican constituencies being associated with higher speed limits. Furthermore, we identify the presence of regional and time dependence effects. By contrast, poor road safety outcomes do not impede the enactment of high speed limits. Overall, we present the first evidence of the role played by geographical, ideological and regional characteristics, which provide us with a better understanding of the formulation of speed limit policies.

Measuring school demand in the presence of spatial dependence. A conditional approach

Improving educational quality is an important public policy goal. However, its success requires identifying factors associated with student achievement. At the core of these proposals lies the principle that increased public school quality can make school system more efficient, resulting in correspondingly stronger performance by students. Nevertheless, the public educational system is not devoid of competition which arises, among other factors, through the efficiency of management and the geographical location of schools. Moreover, families in Spain appear to choose a school on the grounds of location. In this environment, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether geographical space has an impact on the relationship between the level of technical quality of public schools (measured by the efficiency score) and the school demand index. To do this, an empirical application is performed on a sample of 1,695 public schools in the region of Catalonia (Spain). This application shows the effects of spatial autocorrelation on the estimation of the parameters and how these problems are addressed through spatial econometrics models. The results confirm that space has a moderating effect on the relationship between efficiency and school demand, although only in urban municipalities.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.

Health care utilization among immigrants and native-born populations in 11 European countries. Results from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe

This study examines health care utilization of immigrants relative to the native-born populations aged 50 years and older in eleven European countries. Methods. We analyzed data from the Survey of Health Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) from 2004 for a sample of 27,444 individuals in 11 European countries. Negative Binomial regression was conducted to examine the difference in number of doctor visits, visits to General Practitioners (GPs), and hospital stays between immigrants and the native-born individuals. Results: We find evidence those immigrants above age 50 use health services on average more than the native-born populations with the same characteristics. Our models show immigrants have between 6% and 27% more expected visits to the doctor, GP or hospital stays when compared to native-born populations in a number of European countries. Discussion: Elderly immigrant populations might be using health services more intensively due to cultural reasons.

Estimating extreme value cumulative distribution functions using bias-corrected kernel approaches

We propose a new kernel estimation of the cumulative distribution function based on transformation and on bias reducing techniques. We derive the optimal bandwidth that minimises the asymptotic integrated mean squared error. The simulation results show that our proposed kernel estimation improves alternative approaches when the variable has an extreme value distribution with heavy tail and the sample size is small.

Programa MicroEconometria. Paquet estadístic i economètric

MicroEconometria és un paquet estadístic i economètric que contempla l’estimació de models uniequacionals: 1- Regressió simple i múltiple: anàlisi de residus, influència i atipicitat, diagnòstics de multicol·linealitat, estimació robusta, predicció, diagnòstics d’estabilitat, bootstrap. 2- Regressió en panell: efectes fixes, efectes aleatoris i efectes combinats. 3- Regressió lògit i probit. 4- Regressió censurada: tobit i model de selecció de Heckman. 5- Regressió multinomial. 6- Regressió poisson: model ‘count data’. 7- Índexs amb variables renda i riquesa i impostos transferències. Genera un informe per a cada una de les possibilitats contemplades que conté la presentació dels resultats de les estimacions, incloent les sortides gràfiques pertinents. L’input del programa és qualsevol base de dades, en la que es pugui identificar la variable endògena i les variables exògenes del model utilitzat, continguda en un llibre d’EXCEL de Microsoft.

Programa SIMBENFISC v1.0. Simulador de beneficis fiscals de la Generalitat de Catalunya.

SIMBENFISC v1.0 permet simular els beneficis fiscals que generen els següents impostos: Successions, Donacions, Transmissions Patrimonials, Actes Jurídics i Operacions Societàries. Genera un informe per a cada impost que conté: 1- Els resultats de la recaptació real per a la liquidació de l’impost segons la normativa vigent a Catalunya i la normativa vigent a l’estat. 2- Els resultats dels beneficis fiscals que corresponen a l’execució de les diferents reduccions i/o deduccions contemplades a cada impost. 3- Els resultats de la projecció de recaptació i dels beneficis fiscals que s’obtindrien d’aplicar determinats supòsits de creixement a) de la base imposable, b) de les liquidacions i c) de canvis de normativa. La informació que processa aquest simulador, òbviament, és específica de cada impost, però el seu ventall es situa aproximadament entre els 50.000 i 300.000 registres. Aquesta informació és l’input del microsimulador i la proporciona la Direcció General de Tributs i Jocs, del Departament d’Economia i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya, a partir de les autoliquidacions que s’efectuen en cada exercici fiscal anual.

Programa SIMCAT v4.1. Microsimulador de reformes impositives de la Generalitat de Catalunya.

SIMCAT v4.1 permet simular reformes dels següents impostos: IRPF, IPPF, Successions, Donacions, Transmissions Patrimonials, Actes Jurídics i Operacions Societàries. Aquest simulador permet confegir les figures contemplades específicament per a cada impost, seguint el seu esquema liquidatori: base imposable, reduccions, base liquidable, tarifa, deduccions, bonificacions i quota. Genera un informe per a cada reforma programada que conté: 1) Resultats descriptius i estadístics, relatius a les variables d’interès de qualsevol dels impostos mencionats, per tal de poder analitzar l’impacte global de la reforma programada. 2) Resultats distributius en forma de grups ordenats de contribuents, segons base imposable gravada, per tal de poder analitzar l’impacte específic per a cada grup de la reforma programada. 3) Resultats sintètics en forma dels índexs habitualment utilitzats per analitzar reformes impositives: desigualtat, concentració, progressivitat i redistribució. 4) Resultats corresponents als guanyadors i perdedors de cada reforma, respecte a la situació de partida o, àdhuc, permetent la comparació amb d’altres reformes. 5) Gràfics de corbes de Lorenz, de tipus impositius, de guanys i pèrdues. La informació que processa aquest simulador, òbviament, és específica de cada impost, però el seu ventall es situa aproximadament entre els 50.000 i 300.000 registres. Aquesta informació és l’input del microsimulador i la proporciona la Direcció General de Tributs i Jocs, del Departament d’Economia i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya, a partir de les autoliquidacions que s’efectuen en cada exercici fiscal anual.

Has concentration evolved similarly in manufacturing and services? A sensitivity analysis

Our first objective is to compare the degree of concentration in manufacturing and services, with special emphasis on its evolution in these two sectors, using a sensitivity analysis for different concentration indices and different geographic units of analysis: municipalities and local labour systems of Catalonia in 1991 and 2001. Most concentration measures fail to consider the space in which a particular municipality is located. Our second objective is to overcome this problem by applying two different techniques: by using a clustering measure, and by analysing whether the location quotients computed for each municipality and sector present some kind of spatial autocorrelation process. We take special account of the differences in patterns of concentration according to the technological level of the sectors.

Rahatalous

Suomen Pankin kirjaston rahatalouden kokoelma on maan kattavin ja monipuolisin rahatalouteen ja rahoitusmarkkinoihin painottunut kokoelma. Kokoelmaan kuuluu merkittävä määrä nimekkeitä, joita ei ole hankittu muihin suomalaisiin kirjastoihin. Rahatalouden kokoelma koostuu monografioista, painetuista kausijulkaisuista ja elektronisista lehtitietokannoista. Kokoelma on painottunut tieteelliseen kirjallisuuteen, joka tukee pankissa tehtävää tutkimusta. Lisäksi aineistossa on huomattava määrä yleistajuista kirjallisuutta rahatalouden eri aihealueilta. Rahatalouden kokoelmaan kuuluu monografioita n. 9000 nimekettä (joulukuu 2010). Kokoelma käsittää nimekkeitä useilta eri aihealueilta, kuten rahapolitiikka ja rahateoria (n. 900), valuutat, valuuttajärjestelmät ja valuuttakurssit (n. 1100), pankkitoiminta ja keskuspankit (n. 1300), rahoitusmarkkinat (n. 1700), yleinen talousteoria ja oppihistoria (n. 1300), talouspolitiikka ja -historia (n. 450), hyöty- ja hintateoriat (n. 300), taloudellinen kasvu ja kansantulo (n. 700), suhdanteet (n. 250), julkinen talous ja verotus (n. 400) ja ekonometria (n. 600). Lehtiä kokoelmaan kuuluu n. 300 nimekettä, joista edelleen tilataan 200 nimekettä. Osa lehdistä löytyy painettuna ja osa on käytettävissä kirjastoon hankittujen elektronisten lehtitietokantojen kautta. Kokoelma karttuu pääosin ostojen kautta ja uutta aineistoa hankitaan jatkuvasti. Kokoelmaa on kartutettu systemaattisesti 1950-luvulta lähtien, minkä vuoksi siihen kuuluu merkittävästi vanhempaa aineistoa. Kokoelmaan kuuluvista kirjoista n. 26 % on julkaistu 2000-luvulla ja n. 21 % 1990-luvulla. Varsin suuri osa kirjoista, n. 29 %, on julkaistu 1970- ja 1980-luvulla. Ennen vuotta 1950 julkaistua aineistoa on n. 10 % kokoelmasta. Aineisto on valtaosin englanninkielistä, mutta kokoelmaan kuuluu myös suomen-, ruotsin- ja saksankielisiä nimekkeitä. Monografiat on luokiteltu Suomen Pankin kirjaston oman luokitusjärjestelmän mukaan. Kokoelmaa säilytetään Suomen Pankin kirjaston tiloissa jaettuna avokokoelmaan ja varastokokoelmaan. Aineiston ensisijaisia käyttäjiä ovat pankin oma henkilökunta, mutta kirjasto on avoinna myös kaikille ulkoisille asiakkaille. Kokoelma on lainattavissa muutamia poikkeuksia lukuun ottamatta.

National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Économétrie, théorie des tests et philosophie des sciences

Dans ce texte, nous revoyons certains développements récents de l’économétrie qui peuvent être intéressants pour des chercheurs dans des domaines autres que l’économie et nous soulignons l’éclairage particulier que l’économétrie peut jeter sur certains thèmes généraux de méthodologie et de philosophie des sciences, tels la falsifiabilité comme critère du caractère scientifique d’une théorie (Popper), la sous-détermination des théories par les données (Quine) et l’instrumentalisme. En particulier, nous soulignons le contraste entre deux styles de modélisation - l’approche parcimonieuse et l’approche statistico-descriptive - et nous discutons les liens entre la théorie des tests statistiques et la philosophie des sciences.

Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie

Dans ce texte, nous analysons les développements récents de l’économétrie à la lumière de la théorie des tests statistiques. Nous revoyons d’abord quelques principes fondamentaux de philosophie des sciences et de théorie statistique, en mettant l’accent sur la parcimonie et la falsifiabilité comme critères d’évaluation des modèles, sur le rôle de la théorie des tests comme formalisation du principe de falsification de modèles probabilistes, ainsi que sur la justification logique des notions de base de la théorie des tests (tel le niveau d’un test). Nous montrons ensuite que certaines des méthodes statistiques et économétriques les plus utilisées sont fondamentalement inappropriées pour les problèmes et modèles considérés, tandis que de nombreuses hypothèses, pour lesquelles des procédures de test sont communément proposées, ne sont en fait pas du tout testables. De telles situations conduisent à des problèmes statistiques mal posés. Nous analysons quelques cas particuliers de tels problèmes : (1) la construction d’intervalles de confiance dans le cadre de modèles structurels qui posent des problèmes d’identification; (2) la construction de tests pour des hypothèses non paramétriques, incluant la construction de procédures robustes à l’hétéroscédasticité, à la non-normalité ou à la spécification dynamique. Nous indiquons que ces difficultés proviennent souvent de l’ambition d’affaiblir les conditions de régularité nécessaires à toute analyse statistique ainsi que d’une utilisation inappropriée de résultats de théorie distributionnelle asymptotique. Enfin, nous soulignons l’importance de formuler des hypothèses et modèles testables, et de proposer des techniques économétriques dont les propriétés sont démontrables dans les échantillons finis.