Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. Keywords: Policy oriented economic modeling; Model evaluation; VAR models

Predicting loss and fragmentation of habitat of the vulnerable subtropical rainforest tree Macadamia integrifolia with models developed from compiled ecological data

Habitat models are widely used in ecology, however there are relatively few studies of rare species, primarily because of a paucity of survey records and lack of robust means of assessing accuracy of modelled spatial predictions. We investigated the potential of compiled ecological data in developing habitat models for Macadamia integrifolia, a vulnerable mid-stratum tree endemic to lowland subtropical rainforests of southeast Queensland, Australia. We compared performance of two binomial models—Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Generalised Additive Models (GAM)—with Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models developed from (i) presence records and available absence data and (ii) developed using presence records and background data. The GAM model was the best performer across the range of evaluation measures employed, however all models were assessed as potentially useful for informing in situ conservation of M. integrifolia, A significant loss in the amount of M. integrifolia habitat has occurred (p < 0.05), with only 37% of former habitat (pre-clearing) remaining in 2003. Remnant patches are significantly smaller, have larger edge-to-area ratios and are more isolated from each other compared to pre-clearing configurations (p < 0.05). Whilst the network of suitable habitat patches is still largely intact, there are numerous smaller patches that are more isolated in the contemporary landscape compared with their connectedness before clearing. These results suggest that in situ conservation of M. integrifolia may be best achieved through a landscape approach that considers the relative contribution of small remnant habitat fragments to the species as a whole, as facilitating connectivity among the entire network of habitat patches.

Explaining usage of process modeling grammars : comparing three theoretical models in the study of two grammars

Our objective was to determine the factors that lead users to continue working with process modeling grammars after their initial adoption. We examined the explanatory power of three theoretical models of IT usage by applying them to two popular process modeling grammars. We found that a hybrid model of technology acceptance and expectation-confirmation best explained user intentions to continue using the grammars. We examined differences in the model results, and used them to provide three contributions. First, the study confirmed the applicability of IT usage models to the domain of process modeling. Second, we discovered that differences in continued usage intentions depended on the grammar type instead of the user characteristics. Third, we suggest implications and practice.

Modeling factors that influence exercise and dietary change among midlife Australian women: results from the Healthy Aging of Women Study

The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence midlife women to make positive exercise and dietary changes. In late 2005 questionnaires were mailed to 866 women aged 51–66 years from rural and urban locations in Queensland, Australia and participating in Stage 2 of the Healthy Aging of Women Study. The questionnaires sought data on socio-demographics, body mass index (BMI), chronic health conditions, self-efficacy, exercise and dietary behavior change since age 40, and health-related quality of life. Five hundred and sixty four (69%) were completed and returned by early 2006. Data analysis comprised descriptive and bivariate statistics and structural equation modeling. The results showed that midlife is a significant time for women to make positive health behavior changes. Approximately one-third of the sample (34.6%) indicated that they had increased their exercise and around 60% had made an effort to eat more healthily since age 40. Modeling showed self-efficacy to be important in making both exercise and dietary changes. Although education appeared to influence self-efficacy in relation to exercise change, this was not the case for dietary change. The study has application for programs promoting healthy aging among women, and implies that those with low education, high BMI and poor mental health may need considerable support to improve their lifestyles.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Application of micro CT and computation modeling in bone tissue engineering

Computer aided technologies, medical imaging, and rapid prototyping has created new possibilities in biomedical engineering. The systematic variation of scaffold architecture as well as the mineralization inside a scaffold/bone construct can be studied using computer imaging technology and CAD/CAM and micro computed tomography (CT). In this paper, the potential of combining these technologies has been exploited in the study of scaffolds and osteochondral repair. Porosity, surface area per unit volume and the degree of interconnectivity were evaluated through imaging and computer aided manipulation of the scaffold scan data. For the osteochondral model, the spatial distribution and the degree of bone regeneration were evaluated. In this study the versatility of two softwares Mimics (Materialize), CTan and 3D realistic visualization (Skyscan) were assessed, too.

The ontological deficiencies of process modeling in practice

Business process modeling is widely regarded as one of the most popular forms of conceptual modeling. However, little is known about the capabilities and deficiencies of process modeling grammars and how existing deficiencies impact actual process modeling practice. This paper is a first contribution towards a theory-driven, exploratory empirical investigation of the ontological deficiencies of process modeling with the industry standard Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN). We perform an analysis of BPMN using a theory of ontological expressiveness. Through a series of semi-structured interviews with BPMN adopters we explore empirically the actual use of this grammar. Nine ontological deficiencies related to the practice of modeling with BPMN are identified, for example, the capture of business rules and the specification of process decompositions. We also uncover five contextual factors that impact on the use of process modeling grammars, such as tool support and modeling conventions. We discuss implications for research and practice, highlighting the need for consideration of representational issues and contextual factors in decisions relating to BPMN adoption in organizations.