Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2015: Balancing economic recovery and high debt in the Caribbean

The survey provides an overview of the economic performance for 2014 of the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago plus the eight member states of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and the outlook for 2015. Data were collected from a review of reports from national governments and through interviews with government officials in each of the countries analyzed.

Social wasp-flower visiting guild interactions in less structurally complex habitats are more susceptible to local extinction

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Reconstructing past ecological networks: the reconfiguration of seed-dispersal interactions after megafaunal extinction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-p(T) spectrum from proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV

The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7 fb-1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale.

Frugivores at higher risk of extinction are the key elements of a mutualistic network

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Unraveling the drivers of community dissimilarity and species extinction in fragmented landscapes

Communities in fragmented landscapes are often assumed to be structured by species extinction due to habitat loss, which has led to extensive use of the species-area relationship (SAR) in fragmentation studies. However, the use of the SAR presupposes that habitat loss leads species to extinction but does not allow for extinction to be offset by colonization of disturbed-habitat specialists. Moreover, the use of SAR assumes that species richness is a good proxy of community changes in fragmented landscapes. Here, we assessed how communities dwelling in fragmented landscapes are influenced by habitat loss at multiple scales; then we estimated the ability of models ruled by SAR and by species turnover in successfully predicting changes in community composition, and asked whether species richness is indeed an informative community metric. To address these issues, we used a data set consisting of 140 bird species sampled in 65 patches, from six landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. We compared empirical patterns against simulations of over 8 million communities structured by different magnitudes of the power-law SAR and with species-specific rules to assign species to sites. Empirical results showed that, while bird community composition was strongly influenced by habitat loss at the patch and landscape scale, species richness remained largely unaffected. Modeling results revealed that the compositional changes observed in the Atlantic Forest bird metacommunity were only matched by models with either unrealistic magnitudes of the SAR or by models ruled by species turnover, akin to what would be observed along natural gradients. We show that, in the presence of such compositional turnover, species richness is poorly correlated with species extinction, and z values of the SAR strongly underestimate the effects of habitat loss. We suggest that the observed compositional changes are driven by each species reaching its individual extinction threshold: either a threshold of forest cover for species that disappear with habitat loss, or of matrix cover for species that benefit from habitat loss.

Probing the anomalous extinction of four young star clusters: the use of colour-excess, main-sequence fitting and fractal analysis

Aims. We studied four young star clusters to characterise their anomalous extinction or variable reddening and asses whether they could be due to contamination by either dense clouds or circumstellar effects. Methods. We evaluated the extinction law (R-V) by adopting two methods: (i) the use of theoretical expressions based on the colour-excess of stars with known spectral type; and (ii) the analysis of two-colour diagrams, where the slope of the observed colour distribution was compared to the normal distribution. An algorithm to reproduce the zero-age main-sequence (ZAMS) reddened colours was developed to derive the average visual extinction (A(V)) that provides the closest fit to the observational data. The structure of the clouds was evaluated by means of a statistical fractal analysis, designed to compare their geometric structure with the spatial distribution of the cluster members. Results. The cluster NGC 6530 is the only object of our sample affected by anomalous extinction. On average, the other clusters suffer normal extinction, but several of their members, mainly in NGC 2264, seem to have high R-V, probably because of circumstellar effects. The ZAMS fitting provides A(V) values that are in good agreement with those found in the literature. The fractal analysis shows that NGC 6530 has a centrally concentrated distribution of stars that differs from the substructures found in the density distribution of the cloud projected in the A(V) map, suggesting that the original cloud was changed by the cluster formation. However, the fractal dimension and statistical parameters of Berkeley 86, NGC 2244, and NGC 2264 indicate that there is a good cloud-cluster correlation, when compared to other works based on an artificial distribution of points.

Stratospheric aerosol extinction retrieved from SCIAMACHY measurements in limb geometry

Stratosphärische Partikel sind typischerweise mit dem bloßen Auge nicht wahrnehmbar. Dennoch haben sie einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die Strahlungsbilanz der Erde und die heteorogene Chemie in der Stratosphäre. Kontinuierliche, vertikal aufgelöste, globale Datensätze sind daher essenziell für das Verständnis physikalischer und chemischer Prozesse in diesem Teil der Atmosphäre. Beginnend mit den Messungen des zweiten Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM II) Instruments im Jahre 1978 existiert eine kontinuierliche Zeitreihe für stratosphärische Aerosol-Extinktionsprofile, welche von Messinstrumenten wie dem zweiten Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II), dem SCIAMACHY, dem OSIRIS und dem OMPS bis heute fortgeführt wird. rnrnIn dieser Arbeit wird ein neu entwickelter Algorithmus vorgestellt, der das sogenannte ,,Zwiebel-Schäl Prinzip'' verwendet, um Extinktionsprofile zwischen 12 und 33 km zu berechnen. Dafür wird der Algorithmus auf Radianzprofile einzelner Wellenlängen angewandt, die von SCIAMACHY in der Limb-Geometrie gemessen wurden. SCIAMACHY's einzigartige Methode abwechselnder Limb- und Nadir-Messungen bietet den Vorteil, hochaufgelöste vertikale und horizontale Messungen mit zeitlicher und räumlicher Koinzidenz durchführen zu können. Die dadurch erlangten Zusatzinformationen können verwendet werden, um die Effekte von horizontalen Gradienten entlang der Sichtlinie des Messinstruments zu korrigieren, welche vor allem kurz nach Vulkanausbrüchen und für polare Stratosphärenwolken beobachtet werden. Wenn diese Gradienten für die Berechnung von Extinktionsprofilen nicht beachtet werden, so kann dies dazu führen, dass sowohl die optischen Dicke als auch die Höhe von Vulkanfahnen oder polarer Stratosphärenwolken unterschätzt werden. In dieser Arbeit wird ein Verfahren vorgestellt, welches mit Hilfe von dreidimensionalen Strahlungstransportsimulationen und horizontal aufgelösten Datensätzen die berechneten Extinktionsprofile korrigiert.rnrnVergleichsstudien mit den Ergebnissen von Satelliten- (SAGE II) und Ballonmessungen zeigen, dass Extinktionsprofile von stratosphärischen Partikeln mit Hilfe des neu entwickelten Algorithmus berechnet werden können und gut mit bestehenden Datensätzen übereinstimmen. Untersuchungen des Nabro Vulkanausbruchs 2011 und des Auftretens von polaren Stratosphärenwolken in der südlichen Hemisphäre zeigen, dass das Korrekturverfahren für horizontale Gradienten die berechneten Extinktionsprofile deutlich verbessert.