Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors

We propose finite sample tests and confidence sets for models with unobserved and generated regressors as well as various models estimated by instrumental variables methods. The validity of the procedures is unaffected by the presence of identification problems or \"weak instruments\", so no detection of such problems is required. We study two distinct approaches for various models considered by Pagan (1984). The first one is an instrument substitution method which generalizes an approach proposed by Anderson and Rubin (1949) and Fuller (1987) for different (although related) problems, while the second one is based on splitting the sample. The instrument substitution method uses the instruments directly, instead of generated regressors, in order to test hypotheses about the \"structural parameters\" of interest and build confidence sets. The second approach relies on \"generated regressors\", which allows a gain in degrees of freedom, and a sample split technique. For inference about general possibly nonlinear transformations of model parameters, projection techniques are proposed. A distributional theory is obtained under the assumptions of Gaussian errors and strictly exogenous regressors. We show that the various tests and confidence sets proposed are (locally) \"asymptotically valid\" under much weaker assumptions. The properties of the tests proposed are examined in simulation experiments. In general, they outperform the usual asymptotic inference methods in terms of both reliability and power. Finally, the techniques suggested are applied to a model of Tobin’s q and to a model of academic performance.

Unfolded singularities of analytic differential equations

La thèse est composée d’un chapitre de préliminaires et de deux articles sur le sujet du déploiement de singularités d’équations différentielles ordinaires analytiques dans le plan complexe. L’article Analytic classification of families of linear differential systems unfolding a resonant irregular singularity traite le problème de l’équivalence analytique de familles paramétriques de systèmes linéaires en dimension 2 qui déploient une singularité résonante générique de rang de Poincaré 1 dont la matrice principale est composée d’un seul bloc de Jordan. La question: quand deux telles familles sontelles équivalentes au moyen d’un changement analytique de coordonnées au voisinage d’une singularité? est complètement résolue et l’espace des modules des classes d’équivalence analytiques est décrit en termes d’un ensemble d’invariants formels et d’un invariant analytique, obtenu à partir de la trace de la monodromie. Des déploiements universels sont donnés pour toutes ces singularités. Dans l’article Confluence of singularities of non-linear differential equations via Borel–Laplace transformations on cherche des solutions bornées de systèmes paramétriques des équations non-linéaires de la variété centre de dimension 1 d’une singularité col-noeud déployée dans une famille de champs vectoriels complexes. En général, un système d’ÉDO analytiques avec une singularité double possède une unique solution formelle divergente au voisinage de la singularité, à laquelle on peut associer des vraies solutions sur certains secteurs dans le plan complexe en utilisant les transformations de Borel–Laplace. L’article montre comment généraliser cette méthode et déployer les solutions sectorielles. On construit des solutions de systèmes paramétriques, avec deux singularités régulières déployant une singularité irrégulière double, qui sont bornées sur des domaines «spirals» attachés aux deux points singuliers, et qui, à la limite, convergent vers une paire de solutions sectorielles couvrant un voisinage de la singularité confluente. La méthode apporte une description unifiée pour toutes les valeurs du paramètre.

Invariant discretizations of partial differential equations

Un algorithme permettant de discrétiser les équations aux dérivées partielles (EDP) tout en préservant leurs symétries de Lie est élaboré. Ceci est rendu possible grâce à l'utilisation de dérivées partielles discrètes se transformant comme les dérivées partielles continues sous l'action de groupes de Lie locaux. Dans les applications, beaucoup d'EDP sont invariantes sous l'action de transformations ponctuelles de Lie de dimension infinie qui font partie de ce que l'on désigne comme des pseudo-groupes de Lie. Afin d'étendre la méthode de discrétisation préservant les symétries à ces équations, une discrétisation des pseudo-groupes est proposée. Cette discrétisation a pour effet de transformer les symétries ponctuelles en symétries généralisées dans l'espace discret. Des schémas invariants sont ensuite créés pour un certain nombre d'EDP. Dans tous les cas, des tests numériques montrent que les schémas invariants approximent mieux leur équivalent continu que les différences finies standard.

Development of a Technique for Estimating Rain Parameters from Rain Noise Measurements

The measurement of global precipitation is of great importance in climate modeling since the release of latent heat associated with tropical convection is one of the pricipal driving mechanisms of atmospheric circulation.Knowledge of the larger-scale precipitation field also has important potential applications in the generation of initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models Knowledge of the relationship between rainfall intensity and kinetic energy, and its variations in time and space is important for erosion prediction. Vegetation on earth also greatly depends on the total amount of rainfall as well as the drop size distribution (DSD) in rainfall.While methods using visible,infrared, and microwave radiometer data have been shown to yield useful estimates of precipitation, validation of these products for the open ocean has been hampered by the limited amount of surface rainfall measurements available for accurate assessement, especially for the tropical oceans.Surface rain fall measurements(often called the ground truth)are carried out by rain gauges working on various principles like weighing type,tipping bucket,capacitive type and so on.The acoustic technique is yet another promising method of rain parameter measurement that has many advantages. The basic principle of acoustic method is that the droplets falling in water produce underwater sound with distinct features, using which the rainfall parameters can be computed. The acoustic technique can also be used for developing a low cost and accurate device for automatic measurement of rainfall rate and kinetic energy of rain.especially suitable for telemetry applications. This technique can also be utilized to develop a low cost Disdrometer that finds application in rainfall analysis as well as in calibration of nozzles and sprinklers. This thesis is divided into the following 7 chapters, which describes the methodology adopted, the results obtained and the conclusions arrived at.

Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Theory of differential inequalities with appliciations to singular perturbiation problems and method of lines

During recent years, the theory of differential inequalities has been extensively used to discuss singular perturbation problems and method of lines to partial differential equations. The present thesis deals with some differential inequality theorems and their applications to singularly perturbed initial value problems, boundary value problems for ordinary differential equations in Banach space and initial boundary value problems for parabolic differential equations. The method of lines to parabolic and elliptic differential equations are also dealt The thesis is organised into nine chapters

Studies on integrability of some perturbed nonlinear evolution equations

Usually typical dynamical systems are non integrable. But few systems of practical interest are integrable. The soliton concept is a sophisticated mathematical construct based on the integrability of a class ol' nonlinear differential equations. An important feature in the clevelopment. of the theory of solitons and of complete integrability has been the interplay between mathematics and physics. Every integrable system has a lo11g list of special properties that hold for integrable equations and only for them. Actually there is no specific definition for integrability that is suitable for all cases. .There exist several integrable partial clillerential equations( pdes) which can be derived using physically meaningful asymptotic teclmiques from a very large class of pdes. It has been established that many 110nlinear wa.ve equations have solutions of the soliton type and the theory of solitons has found applications in many areas of science. Among these, well-known equations are Korteweg de-Vries(KdV), modified KclV, Nonlinear Schr6dinger(NLS), sine Gordon(SG) etc..These are completely integrable systems. Since a small change in the governing nonlinear prle may cause the destruction of the integrability of the system, it is interesting to study the effect of small perturbations in these equations. This is the motivation of the present work.

Lagrangian approximations and weak solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations

The motion of a viscous incompressible fluid flow in bounded domains with a smooth boundary can be described by the nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations. This description corresponds to the so-called Eulerian approach. We develop a new approximation method for the Navier-Stokes equations in both the stationary and the non-stationary case by a suitable coupling of the Eulerian and the Lagrangian representation of the flow, where the latter is defined by the trajectories of the particles of the fluid. The method leads to a sequence of uniquely determined approximate solutions with a high degree of regularity containing a convergent subsequence with limit function v such that v is a weak solution of the Navier-Stokes equations.

Approximate approximations for the Poisson and the Stokes equations

The method of approximate approximations is based on generating functions representing an approximate partition of the unity, only. In the present paper this method is used for the numerical solution of the Poisson equation and the Stokes system in R^n (n = 2, 3). The corresponding approximate volume potentials will be computed explicitly in these cases, containing a one-dimensional integral, only. Numerical simulations show the efficiency of the method and confirm the expected convergence of essentially second order, depending on the smoothness of the data.

Approximate Approximations and a Boundary Point Method for the Linearized Stokes System

The method of approximate approximations, introduced by Maz'ya [1], can also be used for the numerical solution of boundary integral equations. In this case, the matrix of the resulting algebraic system to compute an approximate source density depends only on the position of a finite number of boundary points and on the direction of the normal vector in these points (Boundary Point Method). We investigate this approach for the Stokes problem in the whole space and for the Stokes boundary value problem in a bounded convex domain G subset R^2, where the second part consists of three steps: In a first step the unknown potential density is replaced by a linear combination of exponentially decreasing basis functions concentrated near the boundary points. In a second step, integration over the boundary partial G is replaced by integration over the tangents at the boundary points such that even analytical expressions for the potential approximations can be obtained. In a third step, finally, the linear algebraic system is solved to determine an approximate density function and the resulting solution of the Stokes boundary value problem. Even not convergent the method leads to an efficient approximation of the form O(h^2) + epsilon, where epsilon can be chosen arbitrarily small.

The Navier-Stokes Equations with Particle Methods

The non-stationary nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations describe the motion of a viscous incompressible fluid flow for 0equations are well-posed or not. Therefore we use a particle method to develop a system of approximate equations. We show that this system can be solved uniquely and globally in time and that its solution has a high degree of spatial regularity. Moreover we prove that the system of approximate solutions has an accumulation point satisfying the Navier-Stokes equations in a weak sense.

Accurate Hartree-Fock-Slater calculations on small diatomic molecules with the finite-element method

We report on the self-consistent field solution of the Hartree-Fock-Slater equations using the finite-element method for the three small diatomic molecules N_2, BH and CO as examples. The quality of the results is not only better by two orders of magnitude than the fully numerical finite difference method of Laaksonen et al. but the method also requires a smaller number of grid points.

H_2 solved by the finite element method

We report on the solution of the Hartree-Fock equations for the ground state of the H_2 molecule using the finite element method. Both the Hartree-Fock and the Poisson equations are solved with this method to an accuracy of 10^-8 using only 26 x 11 grid points in two dimensions. A 41 x 16 grid gives a new Hartree-Fock benchmark to ten-figure accuracy.

A High Order Finite Volume Scheme for the 2D Shallow Water Equations Including Topography

Inhalt dieser Arbeit ist ein Verfahren zur numerischen Lösung der zweidimensionalen Flachwassergleichung, welche das Fließverhalten von Gewässern, deren Oberflächenausdehnung wesentlich größer als deren Tiefe ist, modelliert. Diese Gleichung beschreibt die gravitationsbedingte zeitliche Änderung eines gegebenen Anfangszustandes bei Gewässern mit freier Oberfläche. Diese Klasse beinhaltet Probleme wie das Verhalten von Wellen an flachen Stränden oder die Bewegung einer Flutwelle in einem Fluss. Diese Beispiele zeigen deutlich die Notwendigkeit, den Einfluss von Topographie sowie die Behandlung von Nass/Trockenübergängen im Verfahren zu berücksichtigen. In der vorliegenden Dissertation wird ein, in Gebieten mit hinreichender Wasserhöhe, hochgenaues Finite-Volumen-Verfahren zur numerischen Bestimmung des zeitlichen Verlaufs der Lösung der zweidimensionalen Flachwassergleichung aus gegebenen Anfangs- und Randbedingungen auf einem unstrukturierten Gitter vorgestellt, welches in der Lage ist, den Einfluss topographischer Quellterme auf die Strömung zu berücksichtigen, sowie in sogenannten \glqq lake at rest\grqq-stationären Zuständen diesen Einfluss mit den numerischen Flüssen exakt auszubalancieren. Basis des Verfahrens ist ein Finite-Volumen-Ansatz erster Ordnung, welcher durch eine WENO Rekonstruktion unter Verwendung der Methode der kleinsten Quadrate und eine sogenannte Space Time Expansion erweitert wird mit dem Ziel, ein Verfahren beliebig hoher Ordnung zu erhalten. Die im Verfahren auftretenden Riemannprobleme werden mit dem Riemannlöser von Chinnayya, LeRoux und Seguin von 1999 gelöst, welcher die Einflüsse der Topographie auf den Strömungsverlauf mit berücksichtigt. Es wird in der Arbeit bewiesen, dass die Koeffizienten der durch das WENO-Verfahren berechneten Rekonstruktionspolynome die räumlichen Ableitungen der zu rekonstruierenden Funktion mit einem zur Verfahrensordnung passenden Genauigkeitsgrad approximieren. Ebenso wird bewiesen, dass die Koeffizienten des aus der Space Time Expansion resultierenden Polynoms die räumlichen und zeitlichen Ableitungen der Lösung des Anfangswertproblems approximieren. Darüber hinaus wird die wohlbalanciertheit des Verfahrens für beliebig hohe numerische Ordnung bewiesen. Für die Behandlung von Nass/Trockenübergangen wird eine Methode zur Ordnungsreduktion abhängig von Wasserhöhe und Zellgröße vorgeschlagen. Dies ist notwendig, um in der Rechnung negative Werte für die Wasserhöhe, welche als Folge von Oszillationen des Raum-Zeit-Polynoms auftreten können, zu vermeiden. Numerische Ergebnisse die die theoretische Verfahrensordnung bestätigen werden ebenso präsentiert wie Beispiele, welche die hervorragenden Eigenschaften des Gesamtverfahrens in der Berechnung herausfordernder Probleme demonstrieren.

Root parametrized differential equations

The present thesis is about the inverse problem in differential Galois Theory. Given a differential field, the inverse  problem asks which linear algebraic groups can be realized as differential Galois groups of Picard-Vessiot extensions of this field.   In this thesis we will concentrate on the realization of the classical groups as differential Galois groups. We introduce a method for a very general realization of these groups. This means that we present for the classical groups of Lie rank $l$ explicit linear differential equations where the coefficients are differential polynomials in $l$ differential indeterminates over an algebraically closed field of constants $C$, i.e. our differential ground field is purely differential transcendental over the constants.   For the groups of type $A_l$, $B_l$, $C_l$, $D_l$ and $G_2$ we managed to do these realizations at the same time in terms of Abhyankar's program 'Nice Equations for Nice Groups'. Here the choice of the defining matrix is important. We found out that an educated choice of $l$ negative roots for the parametrization together with the positive simple roots leads to a nice differential equation and at the same time defines a sufficiently general element of the Lie algebra. Unfortunately for the groups of type $F_4$ and $E_6$ the linear differential equations for such elements are of enormous length. Therefore we keep in the case of $F_4$ and $E_6$ the defining matrix differential equation which has also an easy and nice shape.   The basic idea for the realization is the application of an upper and lower bound criterion for the differential Galois group to our parameter equations and to show that both bounds coincide. An upper and lower bound criterion can be found in literature. Here we will only use the upper bound, since for the application of the lower bound criterion an important condition has to be satisfied. If the differential ground field is $C_1$, e.g., $C(z)$ with standard derivation, this condition is automatically satisfied. Since our differential ground field is purely differential transcendental over $C$, we have no information whether this condition holds or not.   The main part of this thesis is the development of an alternative lower bound criterion and its application. We introduce the specialization bound. It states that the differential Galois group of a specialization of the parameter equation is contained in the differential Galois group of the parameter equation. Thus for its application we need a differential equation over $C(z)$ with given differential Galois group. A modification of a result from Mitschi and Singer yields such an equation over $C(z)$ up to differential conjugation, i.e. up to transformation to the required shape. The transformation of their equation to a specialization of our parameter equation is done for each of the above groups in the respective transformation lemma.