Optimal control of non-linear systems through hybrid cell-mapping/artificial-neural-networks techniques

In this paper, a real-time optimal control technique for non-linear plants is proposed. The control system makes use of the cell-mapping (CM) techniques, widely used for the global analysis of highly non-linear systems. The CM framework is employed for designing approximate optimal controllers via a control variable discretization. Furthermore, CM-based designs can be improved by the use of supervised feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have proved to be universal and efficient tools for function approximation, providing also very fast responses. The quantitative nature of the approximate CM solutions fits very well with ANNs characteristics. Here, we propose several control architectures which combine, in a different manner, supervised neural networks and CM control algorithms. On the one hand, different CM control laws computed for various target objectives can be employed for training a neural network, explicitly including the target information in the input vectors. This way, tracking problems, in addition to regulation ones, can be addressed in a fast and unified manner, obtaining smooth, averaged and global feedback control laws. On the other hand, adjoining CM and ANNs are also combined into a hybrid architecture to address problems where accuracy and real-time response are critical. Finally, some optimal control problems are solved with the proposed CM, neural and hybrid techniques, illustrating their good performance.

Circadian Phase Control - Genetic Algorithm and Non-linear Control Approach

This paper deals with the phase control for Neurospora circadian rhythm. The nonlinear control, given by tuning the parameters (considered as controlled variables) in Neurospora dynamical model, allows the circadian rhythms tracking a reference one. When there are many parameters (e.g. 3 parameters in this paper) and their values are unknown, the adaptive control law reveals its weakness since the parameters converging and control objective must be guaranteed at the same time. We show that this problem can be solved using the genetic algorithm for parameters estimation. Once the unknown parameters are known, the phase control is performed by chaos synchronization technique.

Non-linear modelling of microwave devices embedding nano-ferroelectric materials for real-time reconfigurable transmitarray

In this thesis work a nonlinear model for Interdigitated Capacitors (IDCs) based on ferroelectric materials, is proposed. Through the properties of materials such as Hafnium-Zirconium Oxide (HfZrO2), it is possible to realize tunable radiofrequency (RF) circuits. In particular, the model proposed in this thesis describes the use of an IDC, realized on a High-Resistivity silicon substrate, as a phase shifter for beam-steering applications. The model is obtained starting from already present experimental measurements, through which it is possible to identify a circuit model. The model is tested for both low power values and other power values using Harmonic Balance simulations, which show an excellent convergence of the model up to 40 dBm of input power. Furthermore, an array composed by two patches operating both at 2.55 GHz, which exploits the tunable properties of the HfZrO-based IDC is proposed. At 0dBm the model shows a 47° phase shift with polarization -1 V and 1 V which leads to a 11° steering of the main lobe of the array.

Synthetic generation of amyloid PET images by non-linear dimensionality reduction inversion

Privacy issues and data scarcity in PET field call for efficient methods to expand datasets via synthetic generation of new data that cannot be traced back to real patients and that are also realistic. In this thesis, machine learning techniques were applied to 1001 amyloid-beta PET images, which had undergone a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease: the evaluations were 540 positive, 457 negative and 4 unknown. Isomap algorithm was used as a manifold learning method to reduce the dimensions of the PET dataset; a numerical scale-free interpolation method was applied to invert the dimensionality reduction map. The interpolant was tested on the PET images via LOOCV, where the removed images were compared with the reconstructed ones with the mean SSIM index (MSSIM = 0.76 ± 0.06). The effectiveness of this measure is questioned, since it indicated slightly higher performance for a method of comparison using PCA (MSSIM = 0.79 ± 0.06), which gave clearly poor quality reconstructed images with respect to those recovered by the numerical inverse mapping. Ten synthetic PET images were generated and, after having been mixed with ten originals, were sent to a team of clinicians for the visual assessment of their realism; no significant agreements were found either between clinicians and the true image labels or among the clinicians, meaning that original and synthetic images were indistinguishable. The future perspective of this thesis points to the improvement of the amyloid-beta PET research field by increasing available data, overcoming the constraints of data acquisition and privacy issues. Potential improvements can be achieved via refinements of the manifold learning and the inverse mapping stages during the PET image analysis, by exploring different combinations in the choice of algorithm parameters and by applying other non-linear dimensionality reduction algorithms. A final prospect of this work is the search for new methods to assess image reconstruction quality.

Genetic associations between age at first calving and heifer body weight and scrotal circumference in Nelore cattle

P>Age at first calving (AFC) measures the entry of heifers into the beef cattle production system. This trait can be used as a selection criterion for earlier reproductive performance. Using data from Nelore cattle participating in the `Program for Genetic Improvement of the Nelore Breed` (PMGRN-Nelore Brazil), bi-trait analyses were performed using the restricted maximum likelihood method, based on an AFC animal model and the following traits: female body weight adjusted to 365 (BW365) and 450 (BW450) days of age, and male scrotal circumference adjusted to 365 (SC365), 450 (SC450), 550 (SC550) and 730 (SC730) days of age. The heritability estimates for AFC ranged from 0.02 +/- 0.02 to 0.04 +/- 0.02. The estimates of additive direct heritabilities (with standard error) for BW365, BW450, SC365, SC450, SC550 and SC730 were 0.36 +/- 0.07, 0.38 +/- 0.07, 0.48 +/- 0.07, 0.65 +/- 0.07, 0.64 +/- 0.07 and 0.42 +/- 0.07, respectively, and the genetic correlations with AFC were -0.38, -0.33, 0.10, -0.13, -0.13 and 0.06, respectively. In the herds studied, selection for SC365, SC450, SC550 or SC730 should not cause genetic changes in AFC. Selection based on BW365 or BW450 would favor smaller AFC breeding values. However, the low magnitude of direct heritability estimates for AFC in these farms indicates that changes in phenotypical expression depend mostly on non-genetic factors.

Modelação e reforço de vigas de betão armado com laminados de fibra de carbono

Com o atual estado da construção em Portugal, a reabilitação urbana é uma realidade. Com muitos dos edifícios a necessitarem de reforço, procurou-se abordar o comportamento real das estruturas, indo além da típica análise linear elástica. Desta forma, pretendeu-se aumentar o conhecimento acerca da modelação numérica não-linear de estruturas de betão armado, expondo modelos de cálculo relativamente simples e de fácil compreensão, com o objetivo de servir de base a uma avaliação da capacidade de carga de um elemento estrutural. O modelo de cálculo foi validado com recurso ao trabalho experimental de Bresler e Scordelis (1963). Analisou-se o comportamento até à rotura de três vigas ensaiadas à flexão. Posteriormente, foi realizado um estudo paramétrico de algumas propriedades do betão com vista à discussão do melhor de ajuste. Em seguida, já no campo do reforço estrutural, simulou-se numericamente vigas reforçadas com CFRP, com recurso à técnica EBR e NSM. Comparam-se os resultados numéricos com os ensaios experimentais de Cruz et al. (2011a). Avaliou-se ainda o desempenho de soluções alternativas com variações na área e comprimento dos laminados. Para finalizar, foi desenvolvida uma campanha experimental com diferentes áreas de reforço. Conceberam-se e executaram-se três vigas de betão armado sobre as quais se instalaram laminados de CFRP. Os resultados experimentais são apresentados e discutidos à luz dos resultados do respetivo modelo numérico. No cômputo geral, o presente trabalho permitiu aferir a validade de modelos não-lineares na previsão do comportamento efetivo das estruturas até à rotura. Assinala-se a concordância em vários resultados experimentais analisados. Ficaram também patentes os principais fenómenos ligados ao reforço de vigas com CFRP, focados nos respetivos modelos de cálculo e nos resultados experimentais apresentados.

Carbon key-properties for microcystin adsorption in drinking water treatment: structure or surface chemistry?

Dissertação para Obtenção de Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

The effect of water inorganic matrix in ibuprofen adsorption onto activated carbon for water and wastewater treatment

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Modelling of soil penetration resistance for an oxisol under no-tillage

Soil penetration resistance is an important property that affects root growth and elongation and water movement in the soil. Since no-till systems tend to increase organic matter in the soil, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficiency with which soil penetration resistance is estimated using a proposed model based on moisture content, density and organic matter content in an Oxisol containing 665, 221 and 114 g kg-1 of clay, silt and sand respectively under annual no-till cropping, located in Londrina, Paraná State, Brazil. Penetration resistance was evaluated at random locations continually from May 2008 to February 2011, using an impact penetrometer to obtain a total of 960 replications. For the measurements, soil was sampled at depths of 0 to 20 cm to determine gravimetric moisture (G), bulk density (D) and organic matter content (M). The penetration resistance curve (PR) was adjusted using two non-linear models (PR = a Db Gc and PR' = a Db Gc Md), where a, b, c and d are coefficients of the adjusted model. It was found that the model that included M was the most efficient for estimating PR, explaining 91 % of PR variability, compared to 82 % of the other model.

Ecophysiological response of Sorghum halepense populations to reduced rates of nicosulfuron

The control and regrowth after nicosulfuron reduced rate treatment of Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense L. Pers.) populations, from seven Argentinean locations, were evaluated in pot experiments to assess if differential performance could limit the design and implementation of integrated weed management programs. Populations from humid regions registered a higher sensibility to reduced rates of nicosulfuron than populations from subhumid regions. This effect was visualised in the values of regression coefficient of the non-linear models (relating fresh weight to nicosulfuron rate), and in the time needed to obtain a 50% reduction of photosynthesis rate and stomatal conductance. The least leaf CO2 exchange of subhumid populations could result in a lower foliar absorption and translocation of nicosulfuron, thus producing less control and increasing their ability to sprout and produce new aerial biomass. The three populations from subhumid regions, with less sensibility to nicosulfuron rates, presented substantial difference in fresh weight, total rhizome length and number of rhizome nodes, when they were evaluated 20 week after treatment. In consequence, a substantial Johnsongrass re-infestation could occur, if rates below one-half of nicosulfuron labeled rate were used to control Johnsongrass in subhumid regions.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data

Satellite-based rainfall monitoring is widely used for climatological studies because of its full global coverage but it is also of great importance for operational purposes especially in areas such as Africa where there is a lack of ground-based rainfall data. Satellite rainfall estimates have enormous potential benefits as input to hydrological and agricultural models because of their real time availability, low cost and full spatial coverage. One issue that needs to be addressed is the uncertainty on these estimates. This is particularly important in assessing the likely errors on the output from non-linear models (rainfall-runoff or crop yield) which make use of the rainfall estimates, aggregated over an area, as input. Correct assessment of the uncertainty on the rainfall is non-trivial as it must take account of • the difference in spatial support of the satellite information and independent data used for calibration • uncertainties on the independent calibration data • the non-Gaussian distribution of rainfall amount • the spatial intermittency of rainfall • the spatial correlation of the rainfall field This paper describes a method for estimating the uncertainty on satellite-based rainfall values taking account of these factors. The method involves firstly a stochastic calibration which completely describes the probability of rainfall occurrence and the pdf of rainfall amount for a given satellite value, and secondly the generation of ensemble of rainfall fields based on the stochastic calibration but with the correct spatial correlation structure within each ensemble member. This is achieved by the use of geostatistical sequential simulation. The ensemble generated in this way may be used to estimate uncertainty at larger spatial scales. A case study of daily rainfall monitoring in the Gambia, west Africa for the purpose of crop yield forecasting is presented to illustrate the method.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters

Ensemble clustering (EC) can arise in data assimilation with ensemble square root filters (EnSRFs) using non-linear models: an M-member ensemble splits into a single outlier and a cluster of M−1 members. The stochastic Ensemble Kalman Filter does not present this problem. Modifications to the EnSRFs by a periodic resampling of the ensemble through random rotations have been proposed to address it. We introduce a metric to quantify the presence of EC and present evidence to dispel the notion that EC leads to filter failure. Starting from a univariate model, we show that EC is not a permanent but transient phenomenon; it occurs intermittently in non-linear models. We perform a series of data assimilation experiments using a standard EnSRF and a modified EnSRF by a resampling though random rotations. The modified EnSRF thus alleviates issues associated with EC at the cost of traceability of individual ensemble trajectories and cannot use some of algorithms that enhance performance of standard EnSRF. In the non-linear regimes of low-dimensional models, the analysis root mean square error of the standard EnSRF slowly grows with ensemble size if the size is larger than the dimension of the model state. However, we do not observe this problem in a more complex model that uses an ensemble size much smaller than the dimension of the model state, along with inflation and localisation. Overall, we find that transient EC does not handicap the performance of the standard EnSRF.

Benchmarks and the accuracy of GARCH model estimation

This paper reviews nine software packages with particular reference to their GARCH model estimation accuracy when judged against a respected benchmark. We consider the numerical consistency of GARCH and EGARCH estimation and forecasting. Our results have a number of implications for published research and future software development. Finally, we argue that the establishment of benchmarks for other standard non-linear models is long overdue.