Do capital controls boost resilence to crises?

Os controles de capitais estão novamente em voga em razão dos países emergentes reintroduzirem essas medidas nos últimos anos face a abundante entrada de capital internacional. As autoridades argumentam que tais medidas protegem as economias no caso de uma “parada abrupta” desses fluxos. Será demonstrado que os controles de capitais parecem fazer com que as economias emergentes (EMEs) fiquem mais resistentes diante de uma crise financeira (por exemplo, uma queda na atividade econômica seguida de uma crise é menor quando o controle é maior). No entanto, os controles de capitais parecem deixar as economias emergentes (EMEs) também mais propícias a uma crise. Deste modo, as autoridades devem ser cautelosas na avaliação quanto aos riscos e benefícios relativos a aplicação das medidas dos controles de capitais.

Do capital controls boost EME´s resilience to financial crises?

Capital controls are again in vogue as a number of emerging markets have reintroduced these measures in recent years in response to a “flood” of international capital. Policymakers use these tools to buttress their economies against the “sudden stop” risk that accompanies international capital flows. Using a panel VAR model, we show that capital controls appear to make emerging market economies (EMEs) more resistant to financial crises by showing that lower post-crisis output loss is correlated with stronger capital controls. However, EMEs that employ capital controls seem to be more crisis-prone. Thus, policymakers should carefully evaluate whether the benefits of capital controls outweigh their costs.

Cherry picking with synthetic controls

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages of the SC method is that it imposes a data-driven process to select the comparison units, providing more transparency and less discretionary power to the researcher. However, an important limitation of the SC method is that it does not provide clear guidance on the choice of predictor variables used to estimate the SC weights. We show that such lack of speci c guidances provides signi cant opportunities for the researcher to search for speci cations with statistically signi cant results, undermining one of the main advantages of the method. Considering six alternative speci cations commonly used in SC applications, we calculate in Monte Carlo simulations the probability of nding a statistically signi cant result at 5% in at least one speci cation. We nd that this probability can be as high as 13% (23% for a 10% signi cance test) when there are 12 pre-intervention periods and decay slowly with the number of pre-intervention periods. With 230 pre-intervention periods, this probability is still around 10% (18% for a 10% signi cance test). We show that the speci cation that uses the average pre-treatment outcome values to estimate the weights performed particularly bad in our simulations. However, the speci cation-searching problem remains relevant even when we do not consider this speci cation. We also show that this speci cation-searching problem is relevant in simulations with real datasets looking at placebo interventions in the Current Population Survey (CPS). In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a criterion to select among SC di erent speci cations based on the prediction error of each speci cations in placebo estimations

Graph analysis of verbal fluency test discriminate between patients with Alzheimer’s disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment and normal elderly controls

Verbal fluency is the ability to produce a satisfying sequence of spoken words during a given time interval. The core of verbal fluency lies in the capacity to manage the executive aspects of language. The standard scores of the semantic verbal fluency test are broadly used in the neuropsychological assessment of the elderly, and different analytical methods are likely to extract even more information from the data generated in this test. Graph theory, a mathematical approach to analyze relations between items, represents a promising tool to understand a variety of neuropsychological states. This study reports a graph analysis of data generated by the semantic verbal fluency test by cognitively healthy elderly (NC), patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment – subtypes amnestic(aMCI) and amnestic multiple domain (a+mdMCI) - and patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Sequences of words were represented as a speech graph in which every word corresponded to a node and temporal links between words were represented by directed edges. To characterize the structure of the data we calculated 13 speech graph attributes (SGAs). The individuals were compared when divided in three (NC – MCI – AD) and four (NC – aMCI – a+mdMCI – AD) groups. When the three groups were compared, significant differences were found in the standard measure of correct words produced, and three SGA: diameter, average shortest path, and network density. SGA sorted the elderly groups with good specificity and sensitivity. When the four groups were compared, the groups differed significantly in network density, except between the two MCI subtypes and NC and aMCI. The diameter of the network and the average shortest path were significantly different between the NC and AD, and between aMCI and AD. SGA sorted the elderly in their groups with good specificity and sensitivity, performing better than the standard score of the task. These findings provide support for a new methodological frame to assess the strength of semantic memory through the verbal fluency task, with potential to amplify the predictive power of this test. Graph analysis is likely to become clinically relevant in neurology and psychiatry, and may be particularly useful for the differential diagnosis of the elderly.

Controle adaptativo robusto para um modelo desacoplado de um robô móvel

This thesis presents a new structure of robust adaptive controller applied to mobile robots (surface mobile robot) with nonholonomic constraints. It acts in the dynamics and kinematics of the robot, and it is split in two distinct parts. The first part controls the robot dynamics, using variable structure model reference adaptive controllers. The second part controls the robot kinematics, using a position controller, whose objective is to make the robot to reach any point in the cartesian plan. The kinematic controller is based only on information about the robot configuration. A decoupling method is adopted to transform the linear model of the mobile robot, a multiple-input multiple-output system, into two decoupled single-input single-output systems, thus reducing the complexity of designing the controller for the mobile robot. After that, a variable structure model reference adaptive controller is applied to each one of the resulting systems. One of such controllers will be responsible for the robot position and the other for the leading angle, using reference signals generated by the position controller. To validate the proposed structure, some simulated and experimental results using differential drive mobile robots of a robot soccer kit are presented. The simulator uses the main characteristics of real physical system as noise and non-linearities such as deadzone and saturation. The experimental results were obtained through an C++ program applied to the robot soccer kit of Microrobot team at the LACI/UFRN. The simulated and experimental results are presented and discussed at the end of the text

Plasmid-based controls to detect rpoB mutations in Mycobacterium tuberculosis by quantitative polymerase chain reaction-high-resolution melting

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Phytochrome controls achene germination in Bidens pilosa L. (Asteraceae) by very low fluence response

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

State constraints in optimal impulsive controls

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Running couplings for the simultaneous decoupling of heavy quarks

Scale-invariant running couplings are constructed for several quarks being decoupled together, without reference to intermediate thresholds. Large-momentum scales can also be included. The result is a multi-scale generalization of the renormalization group applicable to any order. Inconsistencies in the usual decoupling procedure with a single running coupling can then be avoided, e.g., when cancelling anomalous corrections from t, b quarks to the axial charge of the proton. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decoupling of unphysical states in the minimal pure spinor formalism II

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

cAMP signaling pathway controls glycogen metabolism in Neurospora crassa by regulating the glycogen synthase gene expression and phosphorylation

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Ambient pH Controls Glycogen Levels by Regulating Glycogen Synthase Gene Expression in Neurospora crassa. New Insights into the pH Signaling Pathway

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

PALEOCLIMATIC CONTROLS ON STABLE OXYGEN AND CARBON ISOTOPES IN CALICHE OF THE ABO FORMATION (PERMIAN), SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW-MEXICO, USA

The stable oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of caliche in fluvial and supratidal rocks of the Abo Formation (Permian), south-central New Mexico, is controlled by palecoclimate and depositional environment. Fluvial caliche consists of low-Mg calcite nodules and vertically oriented tubules that display stage II texture. Micrite matrix support, brecciation, ooids/pisoliths, aveolar-septal texture, and peloids are common in the fluvial caliche and, along with red color and slickensides in the host shale, indicate pedogenesis in a well-oxidized vadose zone. In contrast, periodic waterlogging of the supratidal paleosols, probably due to high water table, is indicated by drab colors, carbonaceous flecks, horizontal rhizoliths, and the paucity of vadose textures in the stage II caliche nodules.Stable oxygen isotopes are similar in the fluvial and supratidal caliches and range from 21.6 to 30.5 parts per thousand (SMOW). The data exhibit a crude bimodality and delta-O-18 enrichment with a decrease in age (higher in the section). Consideration of these data in the context of delta-temperature relations suggests that 1) surface waters responsible for caliche formation increased in delta-O-18 (from roughly -8 to + 1 parts per thousand) over the 18 m.y. time interval that separated the lowest stratigraphic nodule horizon from the highest, 2) the increasing delta-O-18 values also reflect a warming trend (approximately 15-degrees to nearly 30-degrees-C) in the mean monthly temperature over this same time period, with perhaps an associated increase in Permian ocean temperatures, and 3) the significant variation in delta-O-18 from oldest to youngest caliche was probably enhanced by the amount effect, such that as the temperature increased, the amount of precipitation decreased, resulting in high delta-O-18 values.Caliches in the Abo are enriched in heavy carbon (-7.2 to -1.5 part per thousand PDB) compared to that of soil carbonate derived exclusively from C3 plants (-12 part per thousand PDB), and the supratidal caliches contain somewhat heavier carbon compared to the fluvial caliche. The delta-C-13 values for both environments increase with a decrease in caliche age. These results indicate that as the temperature increased and rainfall decreased with time, the level of C3 plant productivity apparently declined, allowing a greater influx of atmospheric CO2 into the soil. This can only occur when soil respiration rates are quite low or at very shallow depths (less than 10 cm), or both. Atmospheric CO2 seems to have invaded the supratidal soils to a somewhat greater extent than the fluvial soils.

Gaze pursuit and arm control of adolescent males diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and normal controls: evidence of a dissociation in processing visual information of short and long duration

Three-dimensional kinematic analysis of line of gaze, arm and ball was used to describe the visual and motor behaviour of male adolescents diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The ADHD participants were tested when both on (ADHD-On) and off (ADHD-Off) their medication and compared to age-matched normal controls in a modified table tennis task that required tracking the ball and hitting to cued right and left targets. Long-duration information was provided by a pre-cue, in which the target was illuminated approximately 2 s before the serve, and short-duration information by an early-cue illuminated about 350 ms after the serve, leaving -500 ms to select the target and perform the action. The ADHD groups differed significantly from the control group in both the pre-cue and early-cue conditions in being less accurate, in having a later onset and duration of pursuit tracking, and a higher frequency of gaze on and off the ball. The use of medication significantly reduced the gaze frequency of the ADHD participants, but surprisingly this did not lead to an increase in pursuit tracking, suggesting a barrier was reached beyond which ball flight information could not be processed. The control and ADHD groups did not differ in arm movement onset, duration and velocity in the short-duration early-cue condition; in the long-duration pre-cue condition, however, the ADHD group's movement time onset and arm velocity differed significantly from controls. The results show that the ADHD groups were able to process short-duration information without experiencing adverse effects on their motor behaviour; however, long-duration information contributed to irregular movement control.