Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

A multi-method study of the transformation of the carbonaceous skeleton of a polymer-based nanoporous carbon along the activation pathway

The change in the carbonaceous skeleton of nanoporous carbons during their activation has received limited attention, unlike its counterpart process in the presence of an inert atmosphere. Here we adopt a multi-method approach to elucidate this change in a poly(furfuryl alcohol)-derived carbon activated using cyclic application of oxygen saturation at 250 °C before its removal (with carbon) at 800 °C in argon. The methods used include helium pycnometry, synchrotron-based X-ray diffraction (XRD) and associated radial distribution function (RDF) analysis, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and, uniquely, electron energy-loss spectroscopy spectrum-imaging (EELS-SI), electron nanodiffraction and fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM). Helium pycnometry indicates the solid skeleton of the carbon densifies during activation from 78% to 93% of graphite. RDF analysis, EELS-SI, and FEM all suggest this densification comes through an in-plane growth of sp2 carbon out to the medium range without commensurate increase in order normal to the plane. This process could be termed ‘graphenization’. The exact way in which this process occurs is not clear, but TEM images of the carbon before and after activation suggest it may come through removal of the more reactive carbon, breaking constraining cross-links and creating space that allows the remaining carbon material to migrate in an annealing-like process.

Simulação de fluxo de fluidos em meios porosos desordenados uma análise de efeito de escala na estimativa da permeabilidade e do coeficiente de arrasto

The present study provides a methodology that gives a predictive character the computer simulations based on detailed models of the geometry of a porous medium. We using the software FLUENT to investigate the flow of a viscous Newtonian fluid through a random fractal medium which simplifies a two-dimensional disordered porous medium representing a petroleum reservoir. This fractal model is formed by obstacles of various sizes, whose size distribution function follows a power law where exponent is defined as the fractal dimension of fractionation Dff of the model characterizing the process of fragmentation these obstacles. They are randomly disposed in a rectangular channel. The modeling process incorporates modern concepts, scaling laws, to analyze the influence of heterogeneity found in the fields of the porosity and of the permeability in such a way as to characterize the medium in terms of their fractal properties. This procedure allows numerically analyze the measurements of permeability k and the drag coefficient Cd proposed relationships, like power law, for these properties on various modeling schemes. The purpose of this research is to study the variability provided by these heterogeneities where the velocity field and other details of viscous fluid dynamics are obtained by solving numerically the continuity and Navier-Stokes equations at pore level and observe how the fractal dimension of fractionation of the model can affect their hydrodynamic properties. This study were considered two classes of models, models with constant porosity, MPC, and models with varying porosity, MPV. The results have allowed us to find numerical relationship between the permeability, drag coefficient and the fractal dimension of fractionation of the medium. Based on these numerical results we have proposed scaling relations and algebraic expressions involving the relevant parameters of the phenomenon. In this study analytical equations were determined for Dff depending on the geometrical parameters of the models. We also found a relation between the permeability and the drag coefficient which is inversely proportional to one another. As for the difference in behavior it is most striking in the classes of models MPV. That is, the fact that the porosity vary in these models is an additional factor that plays a significant role in flow analysis. Finally, the results proved satisfactory and consistent, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the referred methodology for all applications analyzed in this study.

Modelli di diffusion MRI avanzati per lo studio microstrutturale del cervello

La quantificazione non invasiva delle caratteristiche microstrutturali del cervello, utilizzando la diffusion MRI (dMRI), è diventato un campo sempre più interessante e complesso negli ultimi due decenni. Attualmente la dMRI è l’unica tecnica che permette di sondare le proprietà diffusive dell’acqua, in vivo, grazie alla quale è possibile inferire informazioni su scala mesoscopica, scala in cui si manifestano le prime alterazioni di malattie neurodegenerative, da tale tipo di dettaglio è potenzialmente possibile sviluppare dei biomarcatori specifici per le fasi iniziali di malattie neurodegenerative. L’evoluzione hardware degli scanner clinici, hanno permesso lo sviluppo di modelli di dMRI avanzati basati su acquisizioni multi shell, i quali permettono di ovviare alle limitazioni della Diffusion Tensor Imaging, in particolare tali modelli permettono una migliore ricostruzione trattografica dei fasci di sostanza bianca, grazie ad un’accurata stima della Orientation Distribution Function e la stima quantitativa di parametri che hanno permesso di raggiungere una miglior comprensione della microstruttura della sostanza bianca e delle sue eventuali deviazioni dalla norma. L’identificazione di biomarcatori sensibili alle prime alterazioni microstrutturali delle malattie neurodegenerative è uno degli obbiettivi principali di tali modelli, in quanto consentirebbero una diagnosi precoce e di conseguenza un trattamento terapeutico tempestivo prima di una significante perdità cellulare. La trattazione è suddivisa in una prima parte di descrizione delle nozioni fisiche di base della dMRI, dell’imaging del tensore di diffusione e le relative limitazioni, ed in una seconda parte dove sono analizzati tre modelli avanzati di dMRI: Diffusion Kurtosis Imaging, Neurite Orientation Dispersion and Density Imaging e Multi Shell Multi Tissue Constrained Spherical Deconvolution. L'obiettivo della trattazione è quello di offrire una panoramica sulle potenzialità di tali modelli.

An adaptive algorithm for clustering cumulative probability distribution functions using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov two-sample test

This paper proposes an adaptive algorithm for clustering cumulative probability distribution functions (c.p.d.f.) of a continuous random variable, observed in different populations, into the minimum homogeneous clusters, making no parametric assumptions about the c.p.d.f.’s. The distance function for clustering c.p.d.f.’s that is proposed is based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov two sample statistic. This test is able to detect differences in position, dispersion or shape of the c.p.d.f.’s. In our context, this statistic allows us to cluster the recorded data with a homogeneity criterion based on the whole distribution of each data set, and to decide whether it is necessary to add more clusters or not. In this sense, the proposed algorithm is adaptive as it automatically increases the number of clusters only as necessary; therefore, there is no need to fix in advance the number of clusters. The output of the algorithm are the common c.p.d.f. of all observed data in the cluster (the centroid) and, for each cluster, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic between the centroid and the most distant c.p.d.f. The proposed algorithm has been used for a large data set of solar global irradiation spectra distributions. The results obtained enable to reduce all the information of more than 270,000 c.p.d.f.’s in only 6 different clusters that correspond to 6 different c.p.d.f.’s.

Influence of emphysema distribution on pulmonary function parameters in COPD patients

Objective: To evaluate the impact that the distribution of emphysema has on clinical and functional severity in patients with COPD. Methods: The distribution of the emphysema was analyzed in COPD patients, who were classified according to a 5-point visual classification system of lung CT findings. We assessed the influence of emphysema distribution type on the clinical and functional presentation of COPD. We also evaluated hypoxemia after the six-minute walk test (6MWT) and determined the six-minute walk distance (6MWD). Results: Eighty-six patients were included. The mean age was 65.2 ± 12.2 years, 91.9% were male, and all but one were smokers (mean smoking history, 62.7 ± 38.4 pack-years). The emphysema distribution was categorized as obviously upper lung-predominant (type 1), in 36.0% of the patients; slightly upper lung-predominant (type 2), in 25.6%; homogeneous between the upper and lower lung (type 3), in 16.3%; and slightly lower lung-predominant (type 4), in 22.1%. Type 2 emphysema distribution was associated with lower FEV1 , FVC, FEV1 /FVC ratio, and DLCO. In comparison with the type 1 patients, the type 4 patients were more likely to have an FEV1 < 65% of the predicted value (OR = 6.91, 95% CI: 1.43-33.45; p = 0.016), a 6MWD < 350 m (OR = 6.36, 95% CI: 1.26-32.18; p = 0.025), and post-6MWT hypoxemia (OR = 32.66, 95% CI: 3.26-326.84; p = 0.003). The type 3 patients had a higher RV/TLC ratio, although the difference was not significant. Conclusions: The severity of COPD appears to be greater in type 4 patients, and type 3 patients tend to have greater hyperinflation. The distribution of emphysema could have a major impact on functional parameters and should be considered in the evaluation of COPD patients.

Evaluation of ammonia volatilization losses by adjusted parameters of a logistic function

The dynamics of N losses in fertilizer by ammonia volatilization is affected by several factors, making investigation of these dynamics more complex. Moreover, some features of the behavior of the variable can lead to deviation from normal distribution, making the main commonly adopted statistical strategies inadequate for data analysis. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the patterns of cumulative N losses from urea through ammonia volatilization in order to find a more adequate and detailed way of assessing the behavior of the variable. For that reason, changes in patterns of ammonia volatilization losses as a result of applying different combinations of two soil classes [Planossolo and Chernossolo (Typic Albaqualf and Vertic Argiaquolls)] and different rates of urea (50, 100 and 150 kg ha-1 N), in the presence or absence of a urease inhibitor, were evaluated, adopting a 2 × 3 × 2 factorial design with four replications. Univariate and multivariate analysis of variance were performed using the adjusted parameter values of a logistic function as a response variable. The results obtained from multivariate analysis indicated a prominent effect of the soil class factor on the set of parameters, indicating greater relevance of soil adsorption potential on ammonia volatilization losses. Univariate analysis showed that the parameters related to total N losses and rate of volatilization were more affected by soil class and the rate of urea applied. The urease inhibitor affected only the rate and inflection point parameters, decreasing the rate of losses and delaying the beginning of the process, but had no effect on total ammonia losses. Patterns of ammonia volatilization losses provide details on behavior of the variable, details which can be used to develop and adopt more accurate techniques for more efficient use of urea.

Abrasion, transport and distribution of sediment in selected streams of Southern Ontario and Western New York /

The rate of decrease in mean sediment size and weight per square metre along a 54 km reach of the Credit River was found to depend on variations in the channel geometry. The distribution of a specific sediment size consist of: (1) a transport zone; (2) an accumulation zone; and (3) a depletion zone. These zones shift downstream in response to downcurrent decreases in stream competence. Along a .285 km man-made pond, within the Credit River study area, the sediment is also characterized by downstream shifting accumulation zones for each finer clast size. The discharge required to initiate movement of 8 cm and 6 cm blocks in Cazenovia Creek is closely approximated by Baker and Ritter's equation. Incipient motion of blocks in Twenty Mile Creek is best predicted by Yalin's relation which is more efficient in deeper flows. The transport distance of blocks in both streams depends on channel roughness and geometry. Natural abrasion and distribution of clasts may depend on the size of the surrounding sediment and variations in flow competence. The cumulative percent weight loss with distance of laboratory abraded dolostone is defined by a power function. The decrease in weight of dolostone follows a negative exponential. In the abrasion mill, chipping causes the high initial weight loss of dolostone; crushing and grinding produce most of the subsequent weight loss. Clast size was found to have little effect on the abrasion of dolostone within the diameter range considered. Increasing the speed of the mill increased the initial amount of weight loss but decreased the rate of abrasion. The abrasion mill was found to produce more weight loss than stream action. The maximum percent weight loss determined from laboratory and field abrasion data is approximately 40 percent of the weight loss observed along the Credit River. Selective sorting of sediment explains the remaining percentage, not accounted for by abrasion.

Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

Cardiogoniometric parameters for detection of coronary artery disease at rest as a function of stenosis localization and distribution

Cardiogoniometry (CGM), a spatiotemporal electrocardiologic 5-lead method with automated analysis, may be useful in primary healthcare for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) at rest. Our aim was to systematically develop a stenosis-specific parameter set for global CAD detection. In 793 consecutively admitted patients with presumed non-acute CAD, CGM data were collected prior to elective coronary angiography and analyzed retrospectively. 658 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria, 405 had CAD verified by coronary angiography; the 253 patients with normal coronary angiograms served as the non-CAD controls. Study patients--matched for age, BMI, and gender--were angiographically assigned to 8 stenosis-specific CAD categories or to the controls. One CGM parameter possessing significance (P < .05) and the best diagnostic accuracy was matched to one CAD category. The area under the ROC curve was .80 (global CAD versus controls). A set containing 8 stenosis-specific CGM parameters described variability of R vectors and R-T angles, spatial position and potential distribution of R/T vectors, and ST/T segment alterations. Our parameter set systematically combines CAD categories into an algorithm that detects CAD globally. Prospective validation in clinical studies is ongoing.