Comparison of Roadside Crash Injury Metrics using Event Data Recorders

The occupant impact velocity (OIV) and acceleration severity index (ASI) are competing measures of crash severity used to assess occupant injury risk in full-scale crash tests involving roadside safety hardware, e.g. guardrail. Delta-V, or the maximum change in vehicle velocity, is the traditional metric of crash severity for real world crashes. This study compares the ability of the OIV, ASI, and delta-V to discriminate between serious and non-serious occupant injury in real world frontal collisions. Vehicle kinematics data from event data recorders (EDRs) were matched with detailed occupant injury information for 180 real world crashes. Cumulative probability of injury risk curves were generated using binary logistic regression for belted and unbelted data subsets. By comparing the available fit statistics and performing a separate ROC curve analysis, the more computationally intensive OIV and ASI were found to offer no significant predictive advantage over the simpler delta-V.

Accurate Predictions of Water Cluster Formation, (H2O)n=2-10

An efficient mixed molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics model has been applied to the water cluster system. The use of the MP2 method and correlation consistent basis sets, with appropriate correction for BSSE, allows for the accurate calculation of electronic and free energies for the formation of clusters of 2−10 water molecules. This approach reveals new low energy conformers for (H2O)n=7,9,10. The water heptamer conformers comprise five different structural motifs ranging from a three-dimensional prism to a quasi-planar book structure. A prism-like structure is favored energetically at low temperatures, but a chair-like structure is the global Gibbs free energy minimum past 200 K. The water nonamers exhibit less complexity with all the low energy structures shaped like a prism. The decamer has 30 conformers that are within 2 kcal/mol of the Gibbs free energy minimum structure at 298 K. These structures are categorized into four conformer classes, and a pentagonal prism is the most stable structure from 0 to 320 K. Results can be used as benchmark values for empirical water models and density functionals, and the method can be applied to larger water clusters.

Comparison of CBS-QB3, CBS-APNO, and G3 predictions of gas phase deprotonation data

The G3, CBS-QB3, and CBS-APNO methods have been used to calculate ΔH and ΔG values for deprotonation of seventeen gas-phase reactions where the experimental values are reported to be accurate within one kcal/mol. For these reactions, the mean absolute deviation of these three methods from experiment is 0.84 to 1.26 kcal/mol, and the root-mean-square deviation for ΔG and ΔH is 1.43 and 1.49 kcal/mol for the CBS-QB3 method, 1.06 and 1.14 kcal/mol for the CBS-APNO method, and 1.16 and 1.28 for the G3 method. The high accuracy of these methods makes them reliable for calculating gas-phase deprotonation reactions, and allows them to serve as a valuable check on the accuracy of experimental data reported in the National Institutes of Standards and Technology database.

Comparison of density functional theory predictions of gas-phase deprotonation data

The SVWN, BVWN, BP86, BLYP, BPW91, B3P86, B3LYP, B3PW91, B1LYP, mPW1PW, and PBE1PBE density functionals, as implemented in Gaussian 98 and Gaussian 03, were used to calculate ΔG0 and ΔH0 values for 17 deprotonation reactions where the experimental values are accurately known. The PBE1PBE and B3P86 functionals are shown to compute results with accuracy comparable to more computationally intensive compound model chemistries. A rationale for the relative performance of various functionals is explored.

CCSD(T), W1, and other model chemistry predictions for gas-phase deprotonation reactions

A series of CCSD(T) single-point calculations on MP4(SDQ) geometries and the W1 model chemistry method have been used to calculate ΔH° and ΔG° values for the deprotonation of 17 gas-phase reactions where the experimental values have reported accuracies within 1 kcal/mol. These values have been compared with previous calculations using the G3 and CBS model chemistries and two DFT methods. The most accurate CCSD(T) method uses the aug-cc-pVQZ basis set. Extrapolation of the aug-cc-pVTZ and aug-cc-pVQZ results yields the most accurate agreement with experiment, with a standard deviation of 0.58 kcal/mol for ΔG° and 0.70 kcal/mol for ΔH°. Standard deviations from experiment for ΔG° and ΔH° for the W1 method are 0.95 and 0.83 kcal/mol, respectively. The G3 and CBS-APNO results are competitive with W1 and are much less expensive. Any of the model chemistry methods or the CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ method can serve as a valuable check on the accuracy of experimental data reported in the National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) database.

Comparison of Model Chemistry and Density Functional Theory Thermochemical Predictions with Experiment for Formation of Ionic Clusters of the Ammonium Cation Complexed with Water and Ammonia; Atmospheric Implications

The G2, G3, CBS-QB3, and CBS-APNO model chemistry methods and the B3LYP, B3P86, mPW1PW, and PBE1PBE density functional theory (DFT) methods have been used to calculate ΔH° and ΔG° values for ionic clusters of the ammonium ion complexed with water and ammonia. Results for the clusters NH4+(NH3)n and NH4+(H2O)n, where n = 1−4, are reported in this paper and compared against experimental values. Agreement with the experimental values for ΔH° and ΔG° for formation of NH4+(NH3)n clusters is excellent. Comparison between experiment and theory for formation of the NH4+(H2O)n clusters is quite good considering the uncertainty in the experimental values. The four DFT methods yield excellent agreement with experiment and the model chemistry methods when the aug-cc-pVTZ basis set is used for energetic calculations and the 6-31G* basis set is used for geometries and frequencies. On the basis of these results, we predict that all ions in the lower troposphere will be saturated with at least one complete first hydration shell of water molecules.

Comparison of CBS-QB3, CBS-APNO, G2, and G3 thermochemical predictions with experiment for formation of ionic clusters of hydronium and hydroxide ions complexed with water

The GAUSSIAN 2, GAUSSIAN 3, complete basis set-QB3, and complete basis set-APNO methods have been used to calculate ΔH∘ and ΔG∘ values for ionic clusters of hydronium and hydroxide ions complexed with water. Results for the clusters H3O+(H2O)n andOH−(H2O)n, where n=1–4 are reported in this paper, and compared against experimental values contained in the National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) database. Agreement with experiment is excellent for the three ab initio methods for formation of these clusters. The high accuracy of these methods makes them reliable for calculating energetics for the formation of ionic clusters containing water. In addition this allows them to serve as a valuable check on the accuracy of experimental data reported in the NIST database, and makes them useful tools for addressing unresolved issues in atmospheric chemistry.

Accurate Predictions of Water Cluster Formation, (H2O)n=2−10

An efficient mixed molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics model has been applied to the water cluster system. The use of the MP2 method and correlation consistent basis sets, with appropriate correction for BSSE, allows for the accurate calculation of electronic and free energies for the formation of clusters of 2−10 water molecules. This approach reveals new low energy conformers for (H2O)n=7,9,10. The water heptamer conformers comprise five different structural motifs ranging from a three-dimensional prism to a quasi-planar book structure. A prism-like structure is favored energetically at low temperatures, but a chair-like structure is the global Gibbs free energy minimum past 200 K. The water nonamers exhibit less complexity with all the low energy structures shaped like a prism. The decamer has 30 conformers that are within 2 kcal/mol of the Gibbs free energy minimum structure at 298 K. These structures are categorized into four conformer classes, and a pentagonal prism is the most stable structure from 0 to 320 K. Results can be used as benchmark values for empirical water models and density functionals, and the method can be applied to larger water clusters.

Secondary collisions revisited: real-world crash data and relationship to crash test criteria

Objectives: Previous research conducted in the late 1980s suggested that vehicle impacts following an initial barrier collision increase severe occupant injury risk. Now over 25years old, the data are no longer representative of the currently installed barriers or the present US vehicle fleet. The purpose of this study is to provide a present-day assessment of secondary collisions and to determine if current full-scale barrier crash testing criteria provide an indication of secondary collision risk for real-world barrier crashes. Methods: To characterize secondary collisions, 1,363 (596,331 weighted) real-world barrier midsection impacts selected from 13years (1997-2009) of in-depth crash data available through the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) / Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) were analyzed. Scene diagram and available scene photographs were used to determine roadside and barrier specific variables unavailable in NASS/CDS. Binary logistic regression models were developed for second event occurrence and resulting driver injury. To investigate current secondary collision crash test criteria, 24 full-scale crash test reports were obtained for common non-proprietary US barriers, and the risk of secondary collisions was determined using recommended evaluation criteria from National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 350. Results: Secondary collisions were found to occur in approximately two thirds of crashes where a barrier is the first object struck. Barrier lateral stiffness, post-impact vehicle trajectory, vehicle type, and pre-impact tracking conditions were found to be statistically significant contributors to secondary event occurrence. The presence of a second event was found to increase the likelihood of a serious driver injury by a factor of 7 compared to cases with no second event present. The NCHRP Report 350 exit angle criterion was found to underestimate the risk of secondary collisions in real-world barrier crashes. Conclusions: Consistent with previous research, collisions following a barrier impact are not an infrequent event and substantially increase driver injury risk. The results suggest that using exit-angle based crash test criteria alone to assess secondary collision risk is not sufficient to predict second collision occurrence for real-world barrier crashes.

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.