Error, Confidence, and Cost in Engineering Computations

The questions that one should answer in engineering computations - deterministic, probabilistic/randomized, as well as heuristic - are (i) how good the computed results/outputs are and (ii) how much the cost in terms of amount of computation and the amount of storage utilized in getting the outputs is. The absolutely errorfree quantities as well as the completely errorless computations done in a natural process can never be captured by any means that we have at our disposal. While the computations including the input real quantities in nature/natural processes are exact, all the computations that we do using a digital computer or are carried out in an embedded form are never exact. The input data for such computations are also never exact because any measuring instrument has inherent error of a fixed order associated with it and this error, as a matter of hypothesis and not as a matter of assumption, is not less than 0.005 per cent. Here by error we imply relative error bounds. The fact that exact error is never known under any circumstances and any context implies that the term error is nothing but error-bounds. Further, in engineering computations, it is the relative error or, equivalently, the relative error-bounds (and not the absolute error) which is supremely important in providing us the information regarding the quality of the results/outputs. Another important fact is that inconsistency and/or near-consistency in nature, i.e., in problems created from nature is completely nonexistent while in our modelling of the natural problems we may introduce inconsistency or near-inconsistency due to human error or due to inherent non-removable error associated with any measuring device or due to assumptions introduced to make the problem solvable or more easily solvable in practice. Thus if we discover any inconsistency or possibly any near-inconsistency in a mathematical model, it is certainly due to any or all of the three foregoing factors. We do, however, go ahead to solve such inconsistent/near-consistent problems and do get results that could be useful in real-world situations. The talk considers several deterministic, probabilistic, and heuristic algorithms in numerical optimisation, other numerical and statistical computations, and in PAC (probably approximately correct) learning models. It highlights the quality of the results/outputs through specifying relative error-bounds along with the associated confidence level, and the cost, viz., amount of computations and that of storage through complexity. It points out the limitation in error-free computations (wherever possible, i.e., where the number of arithmetic operations is finite and is known a priori) as well as in the usage of interval arithmetic. Further, the interdependence among the error, the confidence, and the cost is discussed.

Decentralized demand-supply matching using community microgrids and consumer demand response: A scenario analysis

Developing countries constantly face the challenge of reliably matching electricity supply to increasing consumer demand. The traditional policy decisions of increasing supply and reducing demand centrally, by building new power plants and/or load shedding, have been insufficient. Locally installed microgrids along with consumer demand response can be suitable decentralized options to augment the centralized grid based systems and plug the demand-supply gap. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) develop a framework to identify the appropriate decentralized energy options for demand supply matching within a community, and, (2) determine which of these options can suitably plug the existing demand-supply gap at varying levels of grid unavailability. A scenario analysis framework is developed to identify and assess the impact of different decentralized energy options at a community level and demonstrated for a typical urban residential community Vijayanagar, Bangalore in India. A combination of LPG based CHP microgrid and proactive demand response by the community is the appropriate option that enables the Vijayanagar community to meet its energy needs 24/7 in a reliable, cost-effective manner. The paper concludes with an enumeration of the barriers and feasible strategies for the implementation of community microgrids in India based on stakeholder inputs. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental evaluation of localising production as a strategy for sustainable development: a case study of two consumer goods in Jamaica

The objective of this study was to compare the life-cycle environmental impacts of changed production structures for two consumer goods (high-density polyethylene (HDPE) shopping bags and beds) in Jamaica. A scenario technique was used to construct three alternative production structures for each product; each scenario reflecting an increase in local production in Jamaica which depended on an increased supply of input materials which may be sourced: (1) externally from overseas suppliers, (2) from post-consumer recycling, and (3) locally on the island of Jamaica. These three constructed scenarios were then compared to the existing supply chain or reference scenarios of the products. The results showed that for both case products the recycling scenario was most preferable for localising production, resulting in the lowest environmental impact. This was because the production of raw materials accounted for the largest effect on total environmental impact. As such, the most immediate environmental improvements were realised by lowering the production of virgin materials. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Product aesthetics: representing designer intent and consumer response

This thesis reports on the development of a conceptual framework for product aesthetics. By adopting the theoretical perspective that products are a medium of communication between designers and consumers, the nature of consumer response and designer intent is explored. By integrating a range of disparate literature within a single coherent framework, the varieties of consumer response to product visual form are illustrated. To investigate the ways in which designers intend to evoke these responses, a qualitative research study was undertaken. This primarily involved interviews with industrial designers and consumer investigators. Analysis of these interviews led to the development of a conceptual framework for designer intent which both mirrors, and integrates with, that produced for consumer response. By representing processes beyond design that are influential in determining product form, a broader contextual framework is presented within which product aesthetics is situated. In concluding the thesis, applications for this framework are discussed and future research directions are proposed.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

Fisheries marketing systems and consumer preferences in Puttalam District Sri-Lanka

The aim of this study was to understand the current and historic market situation for inland fish and it’s substitutes in order to identify which of the various production opportunities presented by the seasonal tank resource might have greatest relevance for marginal communities in the Dry-zone. Regional and sub-regional market networks for fish and meat products were investigated, ranking and scoring exercises used to characterise consumer demand in rain-fed areas of North West Province and secondary data sources were used to assess historic patterns of demand and supply [PDF contains 57 pages]