A multifactor approach to the social discount rate

This work focuses on the appraisal of public and environmental projects and, more specifically, on the calculation of the social discount rate (SDR) for this kind of very long-term investment projects. As a rule, we can state that the instantaneous discount rate must be equal to the hazard rate of the public good or to the mortality rate of the population that the project is intended to. The hazard can be due to technical failures of the system, but, in this paper, we are going to consider different independent variables that can cause the hazard. That is, we are going to consider a multivariate hazard rate. In our empirical application, the Spanish forest surface will be the system and the forest fire will be the fail that can be caused by several factors. The aim of this work is to integrate the different variables that produce the fail in the calculation of the SDR from a multivariate hazard rate approach.

The Bambuí health and ageing study (BHAS): methodological approach and preliminary results of a population-based cohort study of the elderly in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: A cohort study has been designed to identify predictors of adverse health events in the elderly. The methodology of the study and preliminary descriptive results are presented. METHODS: The study population comprises all residents of Bambuí (Minas Gerais, Brazil), aged 60 or more years (n=1.742). From these, 92.2% were interviewed and 85.9% underwent clinical examination, consisting of haematological and biochemical tests, serology for Trypanosoma cruzi, anthropometric and blood pressure measures and electrocardiogram. Aliquots of serum, plasma and DNA were stored for future investigations. The baseline interview included sociodemographic characteristics, self-referred health condition and history of selected diseases, medication use, health service use, source of medical care, physical activities, smoking, drinking and eating habits, reproductive history, physical functioning, life events, social support and mental health. Individuals are being followed up annually. RESULTS: The following characteristics predominated among participants: women (60,0%), married (48.9%) or widowed (35.4%), people living in households with up to 2 residents (73.8%), heads of family (76.7%), people with monthly income between 1.00 and 2.99 Brazilian minimum wages (62.0%) and people with up to 4 years of schooling (89.1%). The median age was 68 years. Among the cohort members, only 1.7% were lost in the first follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In general, the characteristics of the study population were very similar to those from other epidemiological studies of the elderly based on large Brazilian cities. The small number of losses to follow-up indicates that the choice of Bambuí was adequate, assuring the feasibility of a long term cohort study.

Thinking over b‐learning strategy: the MIPO model approach

This article describes the main research results in a new methodology, in which the stages and strategies of the technology integration process are identified and described. A set of principles and recommendations are therefore presented. The MIPO model described in this paper is a result of the effort made regarding the understanding of the main success features of good practices, in the web environment, integrated in the information systems/information technology context. The initial model has been created, based on experiences and literature review. After that, it was tested in the information and technology system units at higher school and also adapted as a result of four cycles of an actionresearch work combined with a case study research. The information, concepts and procedures presented here give support to teachers and instructors, instructional designers and planning teams – anyone who wants to develop effective b‐learning instructions.

Contact angle of a hemispherical bubble: An analytical approach

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric Plateau border along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat wall, by analytically integrating Laplace's equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of small Plateau border sizes. This method has the advantage that it provides closed-form expressions for the positions and orientations of the Plateau border surfaces. Results are in very good overall agreement with those obtained from a numerical solution procedure, and are consistent with experimental data. In particular we find that the effect of gravity on Plateau border shape is relatively small for typical bubble sizes, leading to a widening of the Plateau border for sessile bubbles and to a narrowing for pendant bubbles. The contact angle of the bubble is found to depend even more weakly on gravity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Representations of gender in the writings of St. Francis Xavier: an interdisciplinary approach

Francis Xavier’s Letters and Writings are eloquent narratives of a journey that absorbed the Saint’s entire life. His experiences and idiosyncrasies, values and categorizations are presented in a clear literate discourse. The missionary is rarely neutral in his opinions as he sustains his unmistakable and omnipresent objective: the conversion of peoples and the expansion of the Society of Jesus. Parallel with this objective, the reader is introduced to the individuals that Xavier meets or that he summons in his epistolary discourse. Letters and Writings presents us with a structured narrative peopled by all those who are subject to and objects of Xavier’s apostolic mission, by helpful and unhelpful persons of influence, and by leading and secondary actors. What is then the position of women, in the collective sense as well as in the individual sense, in the travels and goals that are the centre of Xavier’s Letters and Writings? What is the role of women, that secondary and suppressed term in the man/woman binomial, a dichotomy similar to the civilized/savage and European/native binomials that punctuate Xavier’s narratives and the historic context of his letters? Women are not absent from his writings, but it would be naïve to argue in favour of the author’s misogyny as much as of his “profound knowledge of the female heart”, to quote from Paulo Durão in "Women in the Letters of Saint Francis Xavier" (1952), the only paper on this subject published so far. We denote four great categories of women in the Letters and Writings: European Women, Converted Women, Women Who Profess another Religion, and Women as the Agents and Objects of Sin, the latter of which traverses the other three categories. They all depend on the context, circumstances and judgements of value that the author chooses to highlight and articulate.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An heuristic approach for optimal location of gas supply units in transportation system

The best places to locate the Gas Supply Units (GSUs) on a natural gas systems and their optimal allocation to loads are the key factors to organize an efficient upstream gas infrastructure. The number of GSUs and their optimal location in a gas network is a decision problem that can be formulated as a linear programming problem. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable location model, reflecting real-world operations and constraints of a natural gas system. This paper presents a heuristic model, based on lagrangean approach, developed for finding the optimal GSUs location on a natural gas network, minimizing expenses and maximizing throughput and security of supply.The location model is applied to the Iberian high pressure natural gas network, a system modelised with 65 demand nodes. These nodes are linked by physical and virtual pipelines – road trucks with gas in liquefied form. The location model result shows the best places to locate, with the optimal demand allocation and the most economical gas transport mode: by pipeline or by road truck.

A real time pricing approach to deal with excessive wind power situations

The introduction of wind power generation in several countries around the world, including in European countries, where energy policy directives have encouraged the use of renewables, led to several changes in market and power systems operation. The intensive integration of these sources has led to situations in which the demand is lower than the available renewable resources. In these situations a part of the available generation is wasted if not used for storage or to supply additional demand. This paper proposes a real time demand response methodology based on changing the electricity price for the consumers expecting an increase in the demand in the periods in which that demand is lower than the available renewable generation. The consumers response to the changes in electricity price is characterized by their price elasticity of demand considered distinct for each consumer type. The proposed methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL). The renewable-based producers are considered as special producers, with special tariffs, and so it is important to use the energy available as it will be paid anyway. In this context, consumers are entities actively participating in the operation of the market.

Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Hydro energy systems management in Portugal: Profit-based evaluation of a mixed-integer nonlinear approach

In this paper, a novel mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to solve the short-term hydro scheduling problem in the day-ahead electricity market, considering not only head-dependency, but also start/stop of units, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. Results from a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro energy systems are presented, showing that the proposedmixed-integer nonlinear approach is proficient. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

OC/EC ratio observations in Europe: Re-thinking the approach for apportionment between primary and secondary organic carbon

This study explores a large set of OC and EC measurements in PM(10) and PM(2.5) aerosol samples, undertaken with a long term constant analytical methodology, to evaluate the capability of the OC/EC minimum ratio to represent the ratio between the OC and EC aerosol components resulting from fossil fuel combustion (OC(ff)/EC(ff)). The data set covers a wide geographical area in Europe, but with a particular focus upon Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, and includes a great variety of sites: urban (background, kerbside and tunnel), industrial, rural and remote. The highest minimum ratios were found in samples from remote and rural sites. Urban background sites have shown spatially and temporally consistent minimum ratios, of around 1.0 for PM(10) and 0.7 for PM(2.5).The consistency of results has suggested that the method could be used as a tool to derive the ratio between OC and EC from fossil fuel combustion and consequently to differentiate OC from primary and secondary sources. To explore this capability, OC and EC measurements were performed in a busy roadway tunnel in central Lisbon. The OC/EC ratio, which reflected the composition of vehicle combustion emissions, was in the range of 03-0.4. Ratios of OC/EC in roadside increment air (roadside minus urban background) in Birmingham, UK also lie within the range 03-0.4. Additional measurements were performed under heavy traffic conditions at two double kerbside sites located in the centre of Lisbon and Madrid. The OC/EC minimum ratios observed at both sites were found to be between those of the tunnel and those of urban background air, suggesting that minimum values commonly obtained for this parameter in open urban atmospheres over-predict the direct emissions of OC(ff) from road transport. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are explored. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-agent based approach for intelligent smart grid management

The spread and globalization of distributed generation (DG) in recent years has should highly influence the changes that occur in Electricity Markets (EMs). DG has brought a large number of new players to take action in the EMs, therefore increasing the complexity of these markets. Simulation based on multi-agent systems appears as a good way of analyzing players’ behavior and interactions, especially in a coalition perspective, and the effects these players have on the markets. MASCEM – Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets was created to permit the study of the market operation with several different players and market mechanisms. MASGriP – Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform is being developed to facilitate the simulation of micro grid (MG) and smart grid (SG) concepts with multiple different scenarios. This paper presents an intelligent management method for MG and SG. The simulation of different methods of control provides an advantage in comparing different possible approaches to respond to market events. Players utilize electric vehicles’ batteries and participate in Demand Response (DR) contracts, taking advantage on the best opportunities brought by the use of all resources, to improve their actions in response to MG and/or SG requests.

Intelligent supervisory control system for home devices using a cyber physical approach

Although we have many electric devices at home, there are just few systems to evaluate, monitor and control them. Sometimes users go out and leave their electric devices turned on what can cause energy wasting and dangerous situations. Therefore most of the users may want to know the using states of their electrical appliances through their mobile devices in a pervasive way. In this paper, we propose an Intelligent Supervisory Control System to evaluate, monitor and control the use of electric devices in home, from outside. Because of the transferring data to evaluate, monitor and control user's location and state of home (ex. nobody at home) may be opened to attacks leading to dangerous situations. In our model we include a location privacy module and encryption module to provide security to user location and data. Intelligent Supervising Control System gives to the user the ability to manage electricity loads by means of a multi-agent system involving evaluation, monitoring, control and energy resource agents.