Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

The long-term effects of conditional cash transfers on child labor and school enrollment

This paper investigates the long-term e ects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Fam lia. Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility’s clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Revendo a definição e determinação de bolhas especulativas no contexto de contágio, este estudo analisa a bolha do DotCom nos mercados acionistas americanos e europeus usando o modelo de correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC) proposto por Engle e Sheppard (2001) como uma explicação econométrica e, por outro lado, as finanças comportamentais como uma explicação psicológica. Contágio é definido, neste contexto, como a quebra estatística nos DCC’s estimados, medidos através das alterações das suas médias e medianas. Surpreendentemente, o contágio é menor durante bolhas de preços, sendo que o resultado principal indica a presença de contágio entre os diferentes índices dos dois continentes e demonstra a presença de alterações estruturais durante a crise financeira.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility's clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Reviewing the de nition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by (Engle and Sheppard 2001) as on one hand as an econometrics explanation and on the other hand the behavioral nance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is de ned in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main nding indicates the presence of contagion in the di¤erent indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during nancial crisis

Effect of price and in-store promotion on sales: a study of distinct regions in an emerging market

Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market.

Towards coherent optical control of a single hole spin: Rabi rotation of a trion conditional on the spin state of the hole

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Conditional reasoning: A key to assessing computer-based knowledge-building communication processes

This article describes a methodological approach to conditional reasoning in online asynchronous learning environments such as Virtual-U VGroups, developed by SFU, BC, Canada, consistent with the notion of meaning implication: If part of a meaning C is embedded in B and a part of a meaning B is embedded in A, then A implies C in terms of meaning [Piaget 91]. A new transcript analysis technique was developed to assess the flows of conditional meaning implications and to identify the occurrence of hypotheses and connections among them in two human science graduate mixed-mode online courses offered in the summer/spring session of 1997 by SFU. Flows of conditional meaning implications were confronted with Virtual-U VGroups threads and results of the two courses were compared. Findings suggest that Virtual-U VGroups is a knowledge-building environment although the tree-like Virtual-U VGroups threads should be transformed into neuronal-like threads. Findings also suggest that formulating hypotheses together triggers a collaboratively problem-solving process that scaffolds knowledge-building in asynchronous learning environments: A pedagogical technique and an built-in tool for formulating hypotheses together are proposed. © Springer Pub. Co.

Conditional cash transfer programmes: experiences from Latin America

Includes bibliography

Derechos aduaneros vigentes en los países centroamericanos sobre las principales materias primas y productos terminados de ácidos alquilaril sulfónicos, alquilaril sulfonatos y otras sales de ácidos de alquilaril sulfónicos y lustradores-limpiadores para zapatos

Incluye Bibliografía

Provisional customs tariff for the East Caribbean Common Market with list of conditional duty exemptions and reductions

Includes bibliography

Conditional cash transfer programmes: the recent experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Relações de equivalência após treino com pareamento consistente de estímulos sob controle contextual

Alguns estudos têm produzido relações condicionais que se mostraram também equivalentes, através do treino com pareamento consistente de estímulos. O presente estudo buscou verificar se essas relações podem ocorrer também sob controle contextual. Quatro universitários foram submetidos ao treino AB, AC e AD, intercalado aos testes de simetria correspondentes BA, CA e DA. Em seguida, ao treino AD e ao teste de simetria DA sob controle contextual. Por último, foram testadas as relações de equivalência BC, CB, BD, DB, CD e DC, na ausência de estímulos contextuais, e DB e DC, com estímulos de contexto. Os participantes alcançaram o critério de acerto em todos os treinos. Três participantes apresentaram as relações simétricas, na ausência de estímulos contextuais, e a relação DA, em sua presença. Estes resultados replicam e expandem estudos anteriores, mostrando que mesmo sem conseqüências diferenciais, é possível obter um desempenho consistente sob controle condicional de segunda ordem.

Seasonal variability of a conditional stability constant and the characterization of sedimentary humic substances from typical agricultural and urban areas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)