Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Multi-objective clustering ensemble for gene expression data analysis

In this paper, we present an algorithm for cluster analysis that integrates aspects from cluster ensemble and multi-objective clustering. The algorithm is based on a Pareto-based multi-objective genetic algorithm, with a special crossover operator, which uses clustering validation measures as objective functions. The algorithm proposed can deal with data sets presenting different types of clusters, without the need of expertise in cluster analysis. its result is a concise set of partitions representing alternative trade-offs among the objective functions. We compare the results obtained with our algorithm, in the context of gene expression data sets, to those achieved with multi-objective Clustering with automatic K-determination (MOCK). the algorithm most closely related to ours. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integer linear programming approach for approximate string comparison

We introduce a problem called maximum common characters in blocks (MCCB), which arises in applications of approximate string comparison, particularly in the unification of possibly erroneous textual data coming from different sources. We show that this problem is NP-complete, but can nevertheless be solved satisfactorily using integer linear programming for instances of practical interest. Two integer linear formulations are proposed and compared in terms of their linear relaxations. We also compare the results of the approximate matching with other known measures such as the Levenshtein (edit) distance. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fermion perturbations in string theory black holes

In this paper we study fermion perturbations in four-dimensional black holes of string theory, obtained either from a non-extreme configuration of three intersecting five-branes with a boost along the common string or from a non-extreme intersecting system of two two-branes and two five-branes. The Dirac equation for the massless neutrino field, after conformal re-scaling of the metric, is written as a wave equation suitable to study the time evolution of the perturbation. We perform a numerical integration of the evolution equation, and with the aid of Prony fitting of the time-domain profile, we calculate the complex frequencies that dominate the quasinormal ringing stage, and also determine these quantities by the semi-analytical sixth-order WKB method. We also find numerically the decay factor of fermion fields at very late times, and show that the falloff is identical to those showing for massless fields in other four-dimensional black hole spacetimes.

Comments on regularization of identity based solutions in string field theory

We analyze the consistency of the recently proposed regularization of an identity based solution in open bosonic string field theory. We show that the equation of motion is satisfied when it is contracted with the regularized solution itself. Additionally, we propose a similar regularization of an identity based solution in the modified cubic superstring field theory.

Experimental performance of a string module in a CPC reflector cavity

The purpose of the work is to develop a cost effective semistationary CPC concentrator for a string PV-module. A novel method of using annual irradiation distribution diagram projected in a north-south vertical plane is developed. This method allows us easily to determine the optimum acceptance angle of the concentrator and the required number of annual tilts. Concentration ranges of 2-5x are investigated with corresponding acceptance angles between 5 and 15°. The concentrator should be tilted 2-6 times per year. Experiments has been performed on a string module of 10 cells connected in a series and equipped with a compound parabolic concentrator with C = 3.3X. Measurement show that the output will increase with a factor of 2-2.5 for the concentrator module, compared to a reference module without concentrator. If very cheap aluminium reflectors are used the costs for the PV-module can be decreased nearly by a factor of two.

COMPARISON OF PARTIAL SHADING LOSSES IN FREE FIELD PV-PLANTS WITH DIFFERENT ARRAY CONFIGURATIONS

A common problem when planning large free field PV-plants is optimizing the ground occupation ratio while maintaining low shading losses. Due to the complexity of this task, several PV-plants have been built using various configurations. In order to compare the shading losses of different PV technologies and array designs, empirical performance data of five free field PV-plants operating in Germany was analyzed. The data collected comprised 140 winter days from October 2011 until March 2012. The relative shading losses were estimated by comparing the energy output of selected arrays in the front rows (shading-free) against that of shaded arrays in the back rows of the same plant. The results showed that landscape mounting with mc-Si PV-modules yielded significantly better results than portrait one. With CIGS modules, making cross-table strings using the lower modules was not beneficial as expected and had more losses than a one-string-per-table layout. Parallel substrings with CdTe showed relatively low losses. Among the two CdTe products analyzed, none showed a significantly better performance.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Black string corrections in variable tension braneworld scenarios

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bosonic D-branes at finite temperature with an external field

Bosonic boundary states at finite temperature are constructed as solutions of boundary conditions at T not equal0 for bosonic open strings with a constant gauge field F-ab coupled to the boundary. The construction is done in the framework of ther-mo field dynamics where a thermal Bogoliubov transformation maps states and operators to finite temperature. Boundary states are given in terms of states from the direct product space between the Fock space of the closed string and another identical copy of it. By analogy with zero temperature, the boundary states have the interpretation of Dp-branes at finite temperature. The boundary conditions admit two different solutions. The entropy of the closed string in a Dp-brane state is computed and analyzed. It is interpreted as the entropy of the Dp-brane at finite temperature.

Entropy of bosonic open string and boundary conditions

The entropy of the states associated to the solutions of the equations of motion of the bosonic open string with combinations of Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions is given. Also, the entropy of the string in the states \A(i)] = alpha(-1)(i)\0] and \phi(a)]= alpha(-1)(a)\0] that describe the massless fields on the world-volume of the Dp-brane is computed. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Black hole entropy associated with the supersymmetric sigma model

By means of an identity that equates the elliptic genus partition function of a supersymmetric sigma model on the N-fold symmetric product (SX)-X-N of X ((SX)-X-N=X-N/S-N, where S-N is the symmetric group of N elements) to the partition function of a second-quantized string theory, we derive the asymptotic expansion of the partition function as well as the asymptotic for the degeneracy of spectrum in string theory. The asymptotic expansion for the state counting reproduces the logarithmic correction to the black hole entropy.