Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Moving On Moves Recidivism Rates Lower, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, October 2009

The results of a recently conducted evaluation show that a gender-responsive program for women probationers holds promise in significantly reducing recidivism rates. The University of Cincinnati conducted the evaluation of the cognitive-behavioral program, Moving On, in which it compared recidivism outcomes for moderate to high-risk Iowa offenders completing the program with a similar group of offenders not having attended any cognitive program.

Effect of Nitrogen and Potassium Rates on Early Development of Macaw Palm

ABSTRACT The economic exploitation of macaw palm [Acrocomia aculeate(Jacq.) Lodd. ex Mart.] is currently in transition, from extractivism to agricultural cultivation, thus requiring studies on the fertilization of the crop. This study evaluated the response of three genotypes of macaw palm to increasing rates of nitrogen and potassium, grown in the field until the 2nd year and to establish reference contents of mineral nutrients in the leaf. The experiment was a split-plot randomized block design with five main treatments (N and K rates) and three secondary treatments (genotypes), with three replications, each plot containing three plants. Plant height, leaf number, vigor, and nutrient contents in leaf tissues were evaluated at the end of 2nd year of cultivation. Differential responses were observed among genotypes, indicating that some genotypes are more efficient in the use of mineral inputs. There was a differentiated and positive response to increasing side-dressed N and K rates in the vegetative development of macaw genotypes until the 2nd year of field cultivation, indicating variability in the species in terms of nutrient use efficiency. The N and K fertilization rate corresponding to 360 g N + 480 g K2O per plant, in four split applications over the two years of cultivation, was insufficient to induce maximum vegetative development in the three macaw genotypes. There was no variation in macro- and micronutrient contents in leaf dry matter of the three macaw genotypes.

Hydro-Physical Properties of a Typic Hapludult under the Effect of Rice Husk Ash

ABSTRACT The combustion of rice husk generates a partially burnt mixture called rice husk ash (RHA) that can be used as a source of nutrients to crops and as a conditioner of soil physical properties. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of RHA levels on the hydro-physical properties of a Typic Hapludult. The experimental design was composed of random blocks with four replications, which comprised plots of 24 m2 and treatments with increasing RHA rates: 0, 40, 80 and 120 Mg ha-1. Undisturbed soil samples were collected in the soil layers of 0.00-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m after nine months of RHA application, using steel cylinders (0.03 m of height and 0.047 m of diameter). These samples were used to determine soil bulk density (Bd), total soil porosity (TP), soil macroporosity (Ma), soil microporosity (Mi) and the available water capacity (AWC). Disturbed soil samples were collected to determine the stability of soil aggregates in water, mean weight diameter of water stable aggregates (MWD), and soil particle size distribution. The results show that, as the RHA rate increased in the soil, Bd values decreased and TP, Ma and MWD values increased. No effect of RHA was found on Mi and AWC values. The effects of RHA on the S parameter (Dexter, 2004), precompression stress and compression index (Dias Junior and Pierce, 1995) values are consistent those shown for density and total porosity. Rice husk ash was shown to be an efficient residue to improve soil physical properties, mainly at rates between 40 and 80 Mg ha-1. Rice husk ash reduces bulk density and increases total porosity, macroporosity and soil aggregation, but does not affect microporosity, field capacity, permanent wilting point, and available water capacity of the soil. The effect of rice husk ash on the S parameter, precompression stress and index compressibility coefficient values are consistent with those observed for the bulk density and total porosity.

Do Rates and Splitting of Phosphogypsum Applications Influence the Soil and Annual Crops in a No-Tillage System?

ABSTRACT Applications of phosphogypsum (PG) provide nutrients to the soil and reduce Al3+ activity, favoring soil fertility and root growth, but allow Mg2+ mobilization through the soil profile, resulting in variations in the PG rate required to achieve the optimum crop yield. This study evaluated the effect of application rates and splitting of PG on soil fertility of a Typic Hapludox, as well as the influence on annual crops under no-tillage. Using a (4 × 3) + 1 factorial structure, the treatments consisted of four PG rates (3, 6, 9, and 12 Mg ha-1) and three split applications (P1 = 100 % in 2009; P2 = 50+50 % in 2009 and 2010; P3 = 33+33+33 % in 2009, 2010 and 2011), plus a control without PG. The soil was sampled six months after the last PG application, in stratified layers to a depth of 0.8 m. Corn, wheat and soybean were sown between November 2011 and December 2012, and leaf samples were collected for analysis when at least 50 % of the plants showed reproductive structures. The application of PG increased Ca2+ concentrations in all sampled soil layers and the soil pH between 0.2 and 0.8 m, and reduced the concentrations of Al3+ in all layers and of Mg2+ to a depth of 0.6 m, without any effect of splitting the applications. The soil Ca/Mg ratio increased linearly to a depth of 0.6 m with the rates and were found to be higher in the 0.0-0.1 m layer of the P2 and P3 treatments than without splitting (P1). Sulfur concentrations increased linearly by application rates to a depth of 0.8 m, decreasing in the order P3>P2>P1 to a depth of 0.4 m and were higher in the treatments P3 and P2 than P1 between 0.4-0.6 m, whereas no differences were observed in the 0.6-0.8 m layer. No effect was recorded for K, P and potential acidity (H+Al). The leaf Ca and S concentration increased, while Mg decreased for all crops treated with PG, and there was no effect of splitting the application. The yield response of corn to PG rates was quadratic, with the maximum technical efficiency achieved at 6.38 Mg ha-1 of PG, while wheat yield increased linearly in a growing season with a drought period. Soybean yield was not affected by the PG rate, and splitting had no effect on the yield of any of the crops. Phosphogypsum improved soil fertility in the profile, however, Mg2+ migrated downwards, regardless of application splitting. Splitting the PG application induced a higher Ca/Mg ratio in the 0.0-0.1 m layer and less S leaching, but did not affect the crop yield. The application rates had no effect on soybean yield, but were beneficial for corn and, especially, for wheat, which was affected by a drought period during growth.

A comparative long-memory Analysis between Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interest rates

Evidence exists that many natural facts are described better as a fractal. Although fractals are very useful for describing nature, it is also appropiate to review the concept of random fractal in finance. Due to the extraordinary importance of Brownian motion in physics, chemistry or biology, we will consider the generalization that supposes fractional Brownian motion introduced by Mandelbrot.The main goal of this work is to analyse the existence of long range dependence in instantaneous forward rates of different financial markets. Concretelly, we perform an empirical analysis on the Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interbanking interest rate. We work with three time series of daily data corresponding to 1 day operations from 28th March 1996 to 21st May 2002. From among all the existing tests on this matter we apply the methodology proposed in Taqqu, Teverovsky and Willinger (1995).

Term structure of interest rates. European financial integration

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rates in six different countries over the period 1992-2004. We apply the Nelson-Siegel model to obtain the term structures of interest rates at weekly intervals. A total of 4,038 curves are estimated and analyzed. Four European Monetary Union countries¿Spain, France, Germany and Italy¿are included. The UK is also included as a European non-member of the Monetary Union. Finally the US completes the analysis. The goal is to determine the differences in the shapes of the term structure of interest rates among these countries. Likewise, we can determine the most usual term structure shapes that appear for each country.*****

Frequent accesses to totally implanted vascular ports in pediatric oncology patients are associated with higher infection rates.

PURPOSE: Totally implanted vascular (TIVA) ports are used in children for repeated blood samples or intravenous treatments. We have recently published a prospective evaluation of surgical incidents and early complications associated with these devices. This work is the final part of the same study, assessing late complications over a follow-up of 2 yrs. METHODS: From January 2006 to January 2008, children older than 1 yr of age with a diagnosis of solid or blood cell malignancy were included. Insertion technique and care of the device were standardized. Every manipulation was prospectively recorded by specialized nurses. Obstruction was documented clinically. When bacteremia was suspected, routine central and peripheral blood cultures were drawn. RESULTS: Forty-five consecutive patients were enrolled in the study. Mean age at the time of the procedure was 8.5 yrs. There was no catheter-related infection within the first 4 weeks post-surgery. No device had to be removed because of infection or obstruction during follow-up. Frequent accesses to the port (=3 per day over a 10-day period) were associated with an 8-fold risk of infection. CONCLUSION: Insertion and use of TIVA devices were frequently associated with complications. No device had to be removed because of infection or obstruction over the follow-up period, although no prophylactic antibiotic agent was used. Restrictive use of antibiotics may prevent opportunistic infection. Frequent access to the device was significantly associated with line infection (odds ratio=8.43). No risk factor was identified for obstruction which occurred at a rate of 5.3 per 10,000 accesses.

Plasma leptin turnover rates in lean and obese Zucker rats

Conscious female adult lean and obese Zucker rats were injected through the jugular vein with radioactive iodine-labeled murine leptin; in the ensuing 8 min, four blood samples were sequentially extracted from the carotid artery. The samples were used in a modified RIA for leptin, in which paired tubes received the same amount of either labeled or unlabeled leptin, thus allowing us to estimate both leptin levels and specific radioactivity. The data were used to determine the decay curve parameters from which the half-life of leptin (5.46 ± 0.23 min for lean rats and 6.99 ± 0.75 min for obese rats) as well as the size of its circulating pool (32 pmol/kg for lean rats and 267 pmol/kg for obese rats) and the overall degradation rate (96 fkat/kg for lean rats and 645 fkat/kg for obese rats) were estimated. These values are consistent with the hormonal role of leptin and the need for speedy changes in its levels in response to metabolic challenge.

Implementation of raltegravir in routine clinical practice: selection criteria for choosing this drug, virologic response rates, and characteristics of failures.

BACKGROUND: Raltegravir (RAL) achieved remarkable virologic suppression rates in randomized-clinical trials, but today efficacy data and factors for treatment failures in a routine clinical care setting are limited. METHODS: First, factors associated with a switch to RAL were identified with a logistic regression including patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a history of 3 class failure (n = 423). Second, predictors for virologic outcome were identified in an intent-to-treat analysis including all patients who received RAL. Last observation carried forward imputation was used to determine week 24 response rate (HIV-1 RNA >or= 50 copies/mL). RESULTS: The predominant factor associated with a switch to RAL in patients with suppressed baseline RNA was a regimen containing enfuvirtide [odds ratio 41.9 (95% confidence interval: 11.6-151.6)]. Efficacy analysis showed an overall response rate of 80.9% (152/188), whereas 71.8% (84/117) and 95.8% (68/71) showed viral suppression when stratified for detectable and undetectable RNA at baseline, respectively. Overall CD4 cell counts increased significantly by 42 cells/microL (P < 0.001). Characteristics of failures were a genotypic sensitivity score of the background regimen <or=1, very low RAL plasma concentrations, poor adherence, and high viral load at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic suppression rates in our routine clinical care setting were promising and comparable with data from previously published randomized-controlled trials.

Vascular postpneumonectomy syndrome: inferior vena cava and pulmonary vein compression as unusual cause for platypnea-orthodeoxia following pneumonectomy

Background: Excessive mediastinal shift into the vacated thoracic cavity after pneumonectomy can result in dyspnea without hypoxemia by compression of the tracheobronchial tree, a phenomenon called postpneumonectomy syndrome. More rarely hypoxemia in upright position (platypnea-orthodeoxia syndrome, POS) after pneumonectomy can result from re-opening of an atrial right-to-left shunt through a patent foramen ovale (PFO) due to mediastinal distorsion. Review of literature also shows a unique report of pulmonary veins stenosis resulting in POS without intracardiac shunt after pneumonectomy. Methods: We report the case of a 32-year-old woman who presented POS 6 months after right pneumonectomy for destroyed lung post tuberculosis. Results: The patient described severe dyspnea disappearing when lying. SpO2 decreased from 94% when lying to 60% sitting. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) suspected a possible PFO. We first tried to highlight clinical repercussions of PFO by noninvasive exams. Hyperoxia shunt quantification was not tolerated because of increased dyspnea in sitting position. Contrast bubbles TTE was difficult because of the important mediastinal shift but identified only rare left heart bubbles with/without Valsalva both in lying and sitting position, excluding a significant right-to-left shunt. A lung perfusion scintigraphy (injection while sitting) confirmed the absence of systemic isotope uptake. Computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (angio-CT) revealed a stretched but not stenosed left main bronchus, while the shift of the heart into the right cavity was major. Pulmonary angiography did not show embolism but revealed compression of the inferior vena cava (IVC) with impaired venous return to the right heart, as well as compression of the left pulmonary veins. There was no arteriovenous shunt. Cardiac MRI showed torsion of IVC at the level of the diaphragm, and strong atrial contraction contributing to a passive filling of the RV, while the right ventricle was normal. Right catheterism showed major hemodynamic disturbances with negative diastolic pressure in right heart cavities (atrium -12 mm Hg ventricle pressure -7 mm Hg). SaO2 measured in the pulmonary artery decreased from 58% when lying to 45% sitting. Conclusion: We described here an exceedingly rare and complex mechanism explaining POS after right pneumonectomy. Mediastinal repositioning with a silicone breast implant of appropriate size has been scheduled.

Laparoscopic surgery for coeliac artery compression syndrome: current management and technical aspects.

Objectives: The study aims to assess the feasibility and midterm outcome of trans-peritoneal laparoscopy for coeliac artery compression syndrome (CACS).Design: Retrospective chart review involving four European vascular surgery departments and two surgical teams.Materials and methods: charts for patients who underwent laparoscopy for symptomatic CACS between December 2003 and November 2009 were reviewed. Preoperative computed tomography (CT) angiography and postoperative duplex scan and/or CT angiography were performed.Results: Eleven consecutive patients (nine women) with a median age of 52 years (interquartile range: 42.5-59 years) underwent trans-peritoneal laparoscopy for CACS. All patients had a history of postprandial abdominal pain; weight loss exceeded 10% of the body mass in eight cases. Preoperative CT angiography revealed coeliac trunk stenosis >70% in all cases. One patient had additional aortitis and inferior mesenteric artery occlusion, while another patient presented with an occluded superior mesenteric artery. Two conversions occurred (one difficult dissection and one aorto-hepatic bypass needed for incomplete release of CACS). The median blood loss was 195 ml (range: 50-900 ml) and median operative time was 80 min (interquartile range: 65-162.5 years). Symptoms improved immediately in 10/11 patients (no residual stenosis) while one remained unchanged despite a residual stenosis treated by a percutaneous angioplasty. Symptoms reappeared in one patient due to coeliac axis occlusion. The mean follow-up period was 35 +/- 23 months (range: 12-78 months).Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that trans-peritoneal laparoscopy for treating median arcuate ligament syndrome is safe and feasible. Additional patients and a longer follow-up are needed for long-term assessment of this laparoscopic technique. (C) 2011 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of soil nitrate in the spring as a basis for adjustment of nitrogen fertiliser rates

Selostus: Maassa olevan nitraattitypen arviointi simulointimallin avulla

Trace element supplementation modulates pulmonary infection rates after major burns: a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Infections remain the leading cause of death after major burns. Trace elements are involved in immunity and burn patients suffer acute trace element depletion after injury. In a previous nonrandomized study, trace element supplementation was associated with increased leukocyte counts and shortened hospital stays. This randomized, placebo-controlled trial studied clinical and immune effects of trace element supplements. Twenty patients, aged 40 +/- 16 y (mean +/- SD), burned on 48 +/- 17% of their body surfaces, were studied for 30 d after injury. They consumed either standard trace element intakes plus supplements (40.4 micromol Cu, 2.9 micromol Se, and 406 micromol Zn; group TE) or standard trace element intakes plus placebo (20 micromol Cu, 0.4 micromol Se, and 100 micromol Zn; group C) for 8 d. Demographic data were similar for both groups. Mean plasma copper and zinc concentrations were below normal until days 20 and 15, respectively (NS). Plasma selenium remained normal for group TE but decreased for group C (P < 0.05 on days 1 and 5). Total leukocyte counts tended to be higher in group TE because of higher neutrophil counts. Proliferation to mitogens was depressed compared with healthy control subjects (NS). The number of infections per patient was significantly (P < 0.05) lower in group TE (1.9 +/- 0.9) than in group C (3.1 +/- 1.1) because of fewer pulmonary infections. Early trace element supplementation appears beneficial after major burns; it was associated with a significant decrease in the number of bronchopneumonia infections and with a shorter hospital stay when data were normalized for burn size.