Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

The establishment mode choice of German multinational enterprises in Brazil: A comparative approach

We examine the drivers behind the establishment mode choice of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the sectors of Automotive, Chemicals and Mechanical Engineering in Brazil for the years 1993-2013 using a novel sample of primary data obtained directly from German MNEs. Based on prevalent theories found in the literature, we test the most common hypotheses on our sample. Firms with high R&D activities and firms with prior market knowledge in Brazil in from of previous sales offices are more likely to enter Brazil by a Greenfield investment. We also show that it is the specific private ownership of the German so-called hidden champions that drive those specific SMEs to enter Brazil by Greenfield, a sneaking suspicion that has been made before. Finally, we show that the establishment mode choice between Brazil and the USA only deviates to a low extent, with German MNEs preferring to enter Brazil by Greenfield and the USA by M&A. Thereby, we provide valuable insights for future research in this field.

Trust, alliance management capability and the alliance management function: A comparative analysis of Portuguese SMEs

Strategic alliances represent a key driver for internationalization and growth, being the purpose of this work project to better understand the intertwined relationship between trust and the existence of an alliance management position. Previous research supports the positive impact of such position in stock market returns. However, little attention has been given to the impact of such position on the level of trust in the collaborative arrangement, which is deemed to be a key driver for alliance success. A qualitative comparative case-study of three Portuguese SMEs is used to draw conclusions from the literature to real life business cases and it demonstrates the positive impact of an alliance management position on trust.

Compaction quality control on site of earthworks - A comparative study

The capacity to use geologic materials (soil and rock) that are available in the surrounding environment is inherent to the human civilization and has contributed to the evolution of societies throughout the course of history. The use of these materials in the construction of structures such as houses, roads, railways or dams, stirred the improvement of socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Several reports of structural problems on embankments can be found throughout history. A considerable number of those registers can be linked to inadequate compaction, demonstrating the importance of guaranteeing a suitable quality of soil compaction. Various methodologies and specifications of compaction quality control on site of earthworks, based on the fill moisture content and dry unit weight, were developed during the 20th century. Two widely known methodologies are the conventional and nuclear techniques. The conventional methods are based on the use of the field sand cone test (or similar) and sampling of material for laboratory-based testing to evaluate the fill dry unit weight and water content. The nuclear techniques measure both parameters in the field using a nuclear density gauge. A topic under discussion in the geotechnical community, namely in Portugal, is the comparison between the accuracy of the nuclear gauge and sand cone test results for assessing the compaction and density ratio of earth fills, particularly for dams. The main purpose of this dissertation is to compare both of them. The data used were acquired during the compaction quality control operations at the Coutada/Tamujais dam trial embankment and core construction. This is a 25 m high earth dam located in Vila Velha de Rodão, Portugal. To analyse the spatial distribution of the compaction parameters (water content and compaction ratio), a 3D model was also developed. The main results achieved are discussed and finally some considerations are put forward on the suitability of both techniques to ensure fill compaction quality and on additional research to complement the conclusions obtained.

Fostering e-participation sustainability through a BPM-driven semantic model

According to a recent Eurobarometer survey (2014), 68% of Europeans tend not to trust national governments. As the increasing alienation of citizens from politics endangers democracy and welfare, governments, practitioners and researchers look for innovative means to engage citizens in policy matters. One of the measures intended to overcome the so-called democratic deficit is the promotion of civic participation. Digital media proliferation offers a set of novel characteristics related to interactivity, ubiquitous connectivity, social networking and inclusiveness that enable new forms of societal-wide collaboration with a potential impact on leveraging participative democracy. Following this trend, e-Participation is an emerging research area that consists in the use of Information and Communication Technologies to mediate and transform the relations among citizens and governments towards increasing citizens’ participation in public decision-making. However, despite the widespread efforts to implement e-Participation through research programs, new technologies and projects, exhaustive studies on the achieved outcomes reveal that it has not yet been successfully incorporated in institutional politics. Given the problems underlying e-Participation implementation, the present research suggested that, rather than project-oriented efforts, the cornerstone for successfully implementing e-Participation in public institutions as a sustainable added-value activity is a systematic organisational planning, embodying the principles of open-governance and open-engagement. It further suggested that BPM, as a management discipline, can act as a catalyst to enable the desired transformations towards value creation throughout the policy-making cycle, including political, organisational and, ultimately, citizen value. Following these findings, the primary objective of this research was to provide an instrumental model to foster e-Participation sustainability across Government and Public Administration towards a participatory, inclusive, collaborative and deliberative democracy. The developed artefact, consisting in an e-Participation Organisational Semantic Model (ePOSM) underpinned by a BPM-steered approach, introduces this vision. This approach to e-Participation was modelled through a semi-formal lightweight ontology stack structured in four sub-ontologies, namely e-Participation Strategy, Organisational Units, Functions and Roles. The ePOSM facilitates e-Participation sustainability by: (1) Promoting a common and cross-functional understanding of the concepts underlying e-Participation implementation and of their articulation that bridges the gap between technical and non-technical users; (2) Providing an organisational model which allows a centralised and consistent roll-out of strategy-driven e-Participation initiatives, supported by operational units dedicated to the execution of transformation projects and participatory processes; (3) Providing a standardised organisational structure, goals, functions and roles related to e-Participation processes that enhances process-level interoperability among government agencies; (4) Providing a representation usable in software development for business processes’ automation, which allows advanced querying using a reasoner or inference engine to retrieve concrete and specific information about the e-Participation processes in place. An evaluation of the achieved outcomes, as well a comparative analysis with existent models, suggested that this innovative approach tackling the organisational planning dimension can constitute a stepping stone to harness e-Participation value.

The perfect paint in modern art conservation: a comparative study of 21st century vinyl emulsions

Contemporary painting places, and will continue to place, several questions about its meaning, its chemical nature, its durability and the best way to preserve it. This research aims at putting together comprehensive data on vinyl based paints, including their components, their properties, their aging behavior and their response to selected cleaning products. In this project degradation mechanisms of vinyl binders and formulations used in the 20th and 21st century were studied. Stability over time of selected vinyl polymers was assessed through natural indoor and artificially aging. The objective was to enhance knowledge and understanding of vinyl emulsion formulations and their performance over time. Overall conservation state of pictorial layers namely, adhesion, cohesion and discoloration of selected case studies from the Portuguese artist Julião Sarmento (b.1948) was correlated with the observed molecular level changes studied in laboratory experiments. Sarmento’s paintings were chosen due to conservation concerns (discoloration) on some of his works from the 90’s. Besides, research was carried out to start increasing the knowledge of what can be expected of PVAc based paints in terms of response to conservation treatments namely, surface cleaning. Artificial aging showed that the most recent formulations which are based on a poly(vinyl acetate), poly(vinyl chloride) and polyethylene terpolymer are less stable when compared to some homopolymer formulations. From the four pigments studied, titanium dioxide rutile and a carbon based black proved to be stabilizers for both types of polymer. The mixture lithopone plus calcium carbonate has showed to have a photocatalytic effect on the binders. The studied paintings showed to be in an overall good state of conservation except for the paintings created in the 90’s with white glue and a mixture of white lithoponeand calcium carbonate. Discoloration of this white paint seems to be irreversible and ongoing and is still a major concern. The disapearance of the plasticizer was the only change detected. The current works created by Sarmento are expected to be more stable as they were painted using the rutile titanium dioxide. Immersion/cleaning tests showed that vinyl based paints can be susceptible to water and organic solvents like ethanol as some evidences point to the removal/diffusion of additives from the paint. The observations made point to the need to further proceed in this research field.

Análise configuracional dos grandes conjuntos urbanos na Região de Lisboa (1945-1974) : contributos da sintaxe espacial para a história de arte como história da cidade

A presente investigação debruça-se sobre o estudo dos grandes conjuntos urbanos, tendo como referência a área de Lisboa no período entre 1945 e 1974. O seu objetivo principal é compreender o padrão espacial e respetivas variantes destas formas urbanas relativamente recentes bem como avaliar o seu impato na estrutura global da cidade e da sociedade. Tomando como ponto de partida a história de arte como história da cidade, a tese toma como objeto o grande conjunto urbano e aponta a hipótese do estudo da relação forma-fundo como meio de obter informações relevantes que relacionem o uso e função com respeito ao desenho do espaço aberto. Como diferentes arranjos entre espaços abertos e fechados implicam tipos espaciais distintos (Medeiros 2013), o estudo da relação entre a forma (cheio) e o fundo (vazio) dos grandes conjuntos urbanos e respetivas variações, pode fornecer-nos informação espacial relevante, que nos permitem compreender melhor estas formas urbanas recentes. Usando a abordagem própria da teoria da sintaxe espacial (Hillier e Hanson 1984), do tipo configuracional, determinam-se as relações entre os vários elementos constituintes dos sistemas espaciais formados nestas urbanizações. Essas relações são depois analisadas através de medidas e variáveis topológicas que nos permitem identificar qualidades e valores espaciais para a sociedade. Os resultados obtidos a partir dessas variáveis e medidas permitem-nos, depois, avaliar os graus de ‘formalidade’ e ‘urbanidade’ em cada sistema (Holanda 2002). Consequentemente, a avaliação qualitativa das características espaciais que se pretendem obter nesta investigação, tem como base a avaliação quantitativa, permitindo assim comparar mais facilmente os diversos casos de estudo. De entre o conjunto de casos analisados, o estudo revela uma série de características comuns, que nos permitem identificar um padrão específico de urbanismo modernista que reflete claramente um conjunto de ideologias associadas a uma visão reformista da sociedade através do espaço. Mas por outro lado, existem também um conjunto de características particulares de cada caso, que reportam para a estrutura morfológica da cidade tradicional. No que reporta à hipótese de estudo levantada nesta investigação sobre a relação forma-fundo, verifica-se através da amostra que esta relação aparece invertida. Esta diferenciação deve-se ao abandono dos tradicionais sistemas de rua e de quarteirão, ainda presentes nas urbanizações de Alvalade e do Areeiro e a sua substituição pelo bloco livre em espaço aberto como nos casos de Alfragide, Portela e Olivais. Tal facto, como prova a teoria da Sintaxe Espacial ou Lógica Social do Espaço, traduziu-se necessariamente em diferentes modos de vida pública e privada e consequentemente de vida espacial e social. Assim concluímos, através da análise dos casos de estudo apresentados, que embora fazendo parte duma mesma ideologia urbana com características comuns (genótipo modernista), os mesmos apresentam resultados espaciais totalmente diferenciados o que justifica a dificuldade da sua análise comparativa.

Context costs and comparative advantages in the telecommunications sector in Portugal and China

This Work Project aims to discuss the Context Costs and Comparative Advantages of the Telecommunications sector both in Portugal and China. The work was built mostly on primary research by interviews with relevant people (business persons, University Professors and Agencies directors), and by economic data publicly available. A list of context costs and comparative advantages was drawn for each country and possible resolutions suggestions were made in the end. The context costs depend heavily on the economic situation of the countries and it should be taken into account when assessing the degree of magnitude of each cost of context. The competitive advantages of each country were drawn in comparison with one another. Some key results stand out: firstly, Portugal’s costs of context depend mainly on governmental decisions, uncertainties and instability and China’s cost of context depend primarily on cultural norms, mainly the Guanxi; second, the telecommunications sector shares most of its context costs and advantages with other sectors; third, China as an economic power could use the telecommunications sector as a way to further develop and boost its economy.

A perceção dos alunos sobre a Educação Física à entrada do ensino secundário: um estudo comparativo entre o ensino regular e profissional

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Educação Física nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário

Hand gesture recognition for human computer interaction : a comparative study of different image features

Hand gesture recognition for human computer interaction, being a natural way of human computer interaction, is an area of active research in computer vision and machine learning. This is an area with many different possible applications, giving users a simpler and more natural way to communicate with robots/systems interfaces, without the need for extra devices. So, the primary goal of gesture recognition research is to create systems, which can identify specific human gestures and use them to convey information or for device control. For that, vision-based hand gesture interfaces require fast and extremely robust hand detection, and gesture recognition in real time. In this study we try to identify hand features that, isolated, respond better in various situations in human-computer interaction. The extracted features are used to train a set of classifiers with the help of RapidMiner in order to find the best learner. A dataset with our own gesture vocabulary consisted of 10 gestures, recorded from 20 users was created for later processing. Experimental results show that the radial signature and the centroid distance are the features that when used separately obtain better results, with an accuracy of 91% and 90,1% respectively obtained with a Neural Network classifier. These to methods have also the advantage of being simple in terms of computational complexity, which make them good candidates for real-time hand gesture recognition.

Antioxidant potential of two Apiaceae plant extracts: a comparative study focused on the phenolic composition

The present study aimed to characterize the extracts prepared from Pimpinella anisum L. (anise) and Coriandrum sativum L. (coriander) (Apiaceae plants) seeds in terms of phenolic composition, and to correlate the obtained profiles with the antioxidant activity. Anise gave the highest abundance in phenolic compounds (42.09± 0.11 mg/g extract), mainly flavonoids (28.08±0.17 mg/g extract) and phenolic acids (14.01±0.06 mg/g extract), and also the highest antioxidant potential, accessed for the ability to inhibit lipid peroxidation and -carotene bleaching, reducing power and free radical scavenger activity. Apigenin and luteolin derivatives, as also caffeoylquinic acid derivatives appear to be directly related with the higher in vitro antioxidant potential of the anise extract.. In contrast, the weak antioxidant potential of coriander seems to be due to their lower abundance in phenolic compounds (2.24±0.01 mg/g extract). Further studies are necessary to evaluate the in vivo antioxidant potential of the tested extracts, but the performed in vitro experiments highlight them as potential health promoters.

Cognitive stimulation for portuguese older adults with cognitive impairment: a randomized controlled trial of efficacy, comparative duration, feasibility and experiential relevance

Although some studies point to cognitive stimulation as a beneficial therapy for older adults with cognitive impairments, this area of research and practice is still lacking dissemination and is underrepresented in many countries. Moreover, the comparative effects of different intervention durations remain to be established and, besides cognitive effects, pragmatic parameters, such as cost-effectiveness and experiential relevance to participants, are seldom explored. In this work, we present a randomized con- trolled wait-list trial evaluating 2 different intervention durations (standard 1⁄4 17 vs brief 1⁄4 11 sessions) of a cognitive stimulation program developed for older adults with cognitive impairments with or without dementia. 20 participants were randomly assigned to the standard duration intervention program (17 sessions, 1.5 months) or to a wait-list group. At postintervention of the standard intervention group, the wait-list group crossed over to receive the brief intervention program (11 sessions, 1 month). Changes in neuropsychological, functionality, quality of life, and caregiver outcomes were evaluated. Experience during intervention and costs and feasibility were also evaluated. The current cognitive stimulation programs (ie, standard and brief) showed high values of experiential relevance for both intervention durations. High adherence, completion rates, and reasonable costs were found for both formats. Further studies are needed to definitively establish the potential efficacy, optimal duration, cost-effectiveness, and experiential relevance for participants of cognitive intervention approaches.

Avaliação quantitativa da geodiversidade: desenvolvimento de instrumentos metodológicos com aplicação ao ordenamento do território

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade de Geologia)

A comparative study of the physical, chemical and microbiological status of soils, as influenced by conventional and reduced tillage

Historically, shifts to reduced and no-tillage management for production of crops were fostered by needs to decrease soil erosion and loss of organic matter, reduce fuel and labour costs and conserve soil water, as compared with conventional fallow tillage management. Recent interest in maintaining soil quality has been stimulated by a renewed awareness of the importance of soil condition to both the sustainability of agricultural production systems and environmental quality (Doran and Parkin, 1996). The aim of this project was to determine the impact on the physical, chemical and microbiological status of the soil of conventional and reduced tillage. It has been suggested that the reduced soil disturbance associated with the tine cultivator improves soil structure, increases nutrient content in the top 10cm of soil, increases microbial activity and improves physical characteristics. From this study it was determined that the environmental benefits linked to reduced tillage in literature, did not develop in the first two years of this programmes implementation. The results of this study determined that soil nutrients did not increase in concentration in the top 10 cm of soil under reduced cultivation. The only exception was exchangeable potassium. As potassium is not a mobile nutrient its movement is dependent on soil disturbance, therefore under reduced cultivation its concentration was allowed to accumulate in the upper horizon of the soil profile. Microbial activity was greater in the conventionally tilled treatments, as determined by total aerobic bacterial numbers. This could be due to the increased rates of soil aeration in this treatment. Numbers of aerobic bacteria were greater in the conventional tillage treatments at both incubation temperatures of 22 and 32° C. The physical characteristics of the soil determined, indicate that below the depth of soil cultivation, cone penetration resistance increases. Therefore the reduced cultivation treatments would be more prone to soil compaction, higher in the soil profile.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.