Investment incentives and valuation of power sector infrastructure assets with increasing interconnection, intermittency and decarbonisation

This dissertation applies a variety of quantitative methods to electricity and carbon market data, utility company accounts data, capital and operating costs to analyse some of the challenges associated with investment in energy assets. In particular, three distinct research topics are analysed within this general theme: the efficiency of interconnector trading, the optimal sizing of intermittent wind facilities and the impact of carbon pricing on the cost of capital for investors are researched in successive sections.

At what price? A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing trial of labour after previous caesarean versus elective repeat caesarean delivery

Background: Elective repeat caesarean delivery (ERCD) rates have been increasing worldwide, thus prompting obstetric discourse on the risks and benefits for the mother and infant. Yet, these increasing rates also have major economic implications for the health care system. Given the dearth of information on the cost-effectiveness related to mode of delivery, the aim of this paper was to perform an economic evaluation on the costs and short-term maternal health consequences associated with a trial of labour after one previous caesarean delivery compared with ERCD for low risk women in Ireland.Methods: Using a decision analytic model, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed where the measure of health gain was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a six-week time horizon. A review of international literature was conducted to derive representative estimates of adverse maternal health outcomes following a trial of labour after caesarean (TOLAC) and ERCD. Delivery/procedure costs derived from primary data collection and combined both "bottom-up" and "top-down" costing estimations.Results: Maternal morbidities emerged in twice as many cases in the TOLAC group than the ERCD group. However, a TOLAC was found to be the most-effective method of delivery because it was substantially less expensive than ERCD ((sic)1,835.06 versus (sic)4,039.87 per women, respectively), and QALYs were modestly higher (0.84 versus 0.70). Our findings were supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Conclusions: Clinicians need to be well informed of the benefits and risks of TOLAC among low risk women. Ideally, clinician-patient discourse would address differences in length of hospital stay and postpartum recovery time. While it is premature advocate a policy of TOLAC across maternity units, the results of the study prompt further analysis and repeat iterations, encouraging future studies to synthesis previous research and new and relevant evidence under a single comprehensive decision model.

Context-aware real-time assistant architecture for pervasive healthcare

The aging population in many countries brings into focus rising healthcare costs and pressure on conventional healthcare services. Pervasive healthcare has emerged as a viable solution capable of providing a technology-driven approach to alleviate such problems by allowing healthcare to move from the hospital-centred care to self-care, mobile care, and at-home care. The state-of-the-art studies in this field, however, lack a systematic approach for providing comprehensive pervasive healthcare solutions from data collection to data interpretation and from data analysis to data delivery. In this thesis we introduce a Context-aware Real-time Assistant (CARA) architecture that integrates novel approaches with state-of-the-art technology solutions to provide a full-scale pervasive healthcare solution with the emphasis on context awareness to help maintaining the well-being of elderly people. CARA collects information about and around the individual in a home environment, and enables accurately recognition and continuously monitoring activities of daily living. It employs an innovative reasoning engine to provide accurate real-time interpretation of the context and current situation assessment. Being mindful of the use of the system for sensitive personal applications, CARA includes several mechanisms to make the sophisticated intelligent components as transparent and accountable as possible, it also includes a novel cloud-based component for more effective data analysis. To deliver the automated real-time services, CARA supports interactive video and medical sensor based remote consultation. Our proposal has been validated in three application domains that are rich in pervasive contexts and real-time scenarios: (i) Mobile-based Activity Recognition, (ii) Intelligent Healthcare Decision Support Systems and (iii) Home-based Remote Monitoring Systems.

Polymer and metallodielectric based photonic crystals

The bottom-up colloidal synthesis of photonic crystals has attracted interest over top-down approaches due to their relatively simplicity, the potential to produce large areas, and the low-costs with this approach in fabricating complex 3-dimensional structures. This thesis focuses on the bottom-up approach in the fabrication of polymeric colloidal photonic crystals and their subsequent modification. Poly(methyl methacrylate) sub-micron spheres were used to produce opals, inverse opals and 3D metallodielectric photonic crystal (MDPC) structures. The fabrication of MDPCs with Au nanoparticles attached to the PMMA spheres core–shell particles is described. Various alternative procedures for the fabrication of photonic crystals and MDPCs are described and preliminary results on the use of an Au-based MDPC for surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) are presented. These preliminary results suggest a threefold increase of the Raman signal with the MDPC as compared to PMMA photonic crystals. The fabrication of PMMA-gold and PMMA-nickel MDPC structures via an optimised electrodeposition process is described. This process results in the formation of a continuous dielectric-metal interface throughout a 3D inverted photonic crystal structure, which are shown to possess interesting optical properties. The fabrication of a robust 3D silica inverted structure with embedded Au nanoparticles is described by a novel co-crystallisation method which is capable of creating a SiO2/Au NP composite structure in a single step process. Although this work focuses on the creation of photonic crystals, this co-crystallisation approach has potential for the creation of other functional materials. A method for the fabrication of inverted opals containing silicon nanoparticles using aerosol assisted chemical vapour deposition is described. Silicon is a high dielectric material and nanoparticles of silicon can improve the band gap and absorption properties of the resulting structure, and therefore have the potential to be exploited in photovoltaics.

Insertion of metal oxides into block copolymer nanopatterns as robust etch masks for nanolithography

Directed self-assembly (DSA) of block copolymers (BCPs) is a prime candidate to further extend dimensional scaling of silicon integrated circuit features for the nanoelectronic industry. Top-down optical techniques employed for photoresist patterning are predicted to reach an endpoint due to diffraction limits. Additionally, the prohibitive costs for “fabs” and high volume manufacturing tools are issues that have led the search for alternative complementary patterning processes. This thesis reports the fabrication of semiconductor features from nanoscale on-chip etch masks using “high χ” BCP materials. Fabrication of silicon and germanium nanofins via metal-oxide enhanced BCP on-chip etch masks that might be of importance for future Fin-field effect transistor (FinFETs) application are detailed.

Valuing maternity care: a comparison of stated preference methods with an application to cost-benefit analysis

This research investigates whether a reconfiguration of maternity services, which collocates consultant- and midwifery-led care, reflects demand and value for money in Ireland. Qualitative and quantitative research is undertaken to investigate demand and an economic evaluation is performed to evaluate the costs and benefits of the different models of care. Qualitative research is undertaken to identify women’s motivations when choosing place of delivery. These data are further used to inform two stated preference techniques: a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and contingent valuation method (CVM). These are employed to identify women’s strengths of preferences for different features of care (DCE) and estimate women’s willingness to pay for maternity care (CVM), which is used to inform a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) on consultant- and midwifery-led care. The qualitative research suggests women do not have a clear preference for consultant or midwifery-led care, but rather a hybrid model of care which closely resembles the Domiciliary Care In and Out of Hospital (DOMINO) scheme. Women’s primary concern during care is safety, meaning women would only utilise midwifery-led care when co-located with consultant-led care. The DCE also finds women’s preferred package of care closely mirrors the DOMINO scheme with 39% of women expected to utilise this service. Consultant- and midwifery-led care would then be utilised by 34% and 27% of women, respectively. The CVM supports this hierarchy of preferences where consultant-led care is consistently valued more than midwifery-led care – women are willing to pay €956.03 for consultant-led care and €808.33 for midwifery-led care. A package of care for a woman availing of consultant- and midwifery-led care is estimated to cost €1,102.72 and €682.49, respectively. The CBA suggests both models of care are cost-beneficial and should be pursued in Ireland. This reconfiguration of maternity services would maximise women’s utility, while fulfilling important objectives of key government policy.

Engineering design of a bioprocess for the production of natural red colourants by submerged fermentation of the thermophilic fungus Penicillium purpurogenum GH2

The development of a new bioprocess requires several steps from initial concept to a practical and feasible application. Industrial applications of fungal pigments will depend on: (i) safety of consumption, (ii) stability of the pigments to the food processing conditions required by the products where they will be incorporated and (iii) high production yields so that production costs are reasonable. Of these requirements the first involves the highest research costs and the practical application of this type of processes may face several hurdles until final regulatory approval as a new food ingredient. Therefore, before going through expensive research to have them accepted as new products, the process potential should be assessed early on, and this brings forward pigment stability studies and process optimisation goals. Only ingredients that are usable in economically feasible conditions should progress to regulatory approval. This thesis covers these two aspects, stability and process optimisation, for a potential new ingredient; natural red colour, produced by microbial fermentation. The main goal was to design, optimise and scale-up the production process of red pigments by Penicillium purpurogenum GH2. The approach followed to reach this objective was first to establish that pigments produced by Penicillium purpurogenum GH2 are sufficiently stable under different processing conditions (thermal and non-thermal) that can be found in food and textile industries. Once defined that pigments were stable enough, the work progressed towards process optimisation, aiming for the highest productivity using submerged fermentation as production culture. Optimum production conditions defined at flask scale were used to scale up the pigment production process to a pilot reactor scale. Finally, the potential applications of the pigments were assessed. Based on this sequence of specific targets, the thesis was structured in six parts, containing a total of nine chapters. Engineering design of a bioprocess for the production of natural red colourants by submerged fermentation of the thermophilic fungus Penicillium purpurogenum GH2.

Strategies to prevent potentially inappropriate prescribing and adverse drug reactions in older patients

INTRODUCTION: Potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) is a major contributor to adverse drug reactions and overall increased healthcare costs. The aim of this thesis was to identify, develop and implement strategies with the potential to prevent PIP and ADRs in older patients. METHODS: A systematic review of the qualitative literature (Meta-synthesis); A qualitative study in Irish hospitals; A randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess the impact of an online educational module on doctors’ prescribing knowledge and confidence; Exploration of the potential for a frailty index score to enable doctors identify patients at increased risk of PIP and ADRs; Exploration of the potential for the SHiM tool to enable doctors to optimise prescribing for older patients. RESULTS: The meta-synthesis identified four key concepts: (i) Desire to please the patient; (ii) Feeling of being forced to prescribe; (iii) Tension between experience and guidelines; (iv) Prescriber fear. Similar themes also emerged from the qualitative study. In the RCT, the online educational module resulted in a highly significant 22% difference in test scores between intervention and control groups. The studies exploring the frailty index score showed a significant positive relationship between a patient’s frailty status and their likelihood of experiencing PIP/ADRs. Patients above a frailty threshold of 0.16 were at least twice as likely to experience PIP/ADRs. SHiM was found to be a useful tool in terms of reconciling patients’ medications. However, the evidence for it being capable of preventing clinically relevant adverse events was poor. CONCLUSION:Qualitative research in this thesis has proposed novel theories relating to the causative factors of PIP in older patients. In doing so, it has identified several areas for intervention and laid down a road map for future research.

Emerging Infectious Disease: Host and Parasite Perspectives

Avian malaria and related haematozoa are nearly ubiquitous parasites that can impose fitness costs of variable severity and may, in some cases, cause substantial mortality in their host populations. One example of the latter, the emergence of avian malaria in the endemic avifauna of Hawaii, has become a model for understanding the consequences of human-mediated disease introduction. The drastic declines of native Hawaiian birds due to avian malaria provided the impetus for examining more closely several aspects of host-parasite interactions in this system. Host-specificity is an important character determining the extent to which a parasite may emerge. Traditional parasite classification, however, has used host information as a character in taxonomical identification, potentially obscuring the true host range of many parasites. To improve upon previous methods, I first developed molecular tools to identify parasites infecting a particular host. I then used these molecular techniques to characterize host-specificity of parasites in the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus. I show that parasites in the genus Plasmodium exhibit low specificity and are therefore most likely to emerge in new hosts in the future. Subsequently, I characterized the global distribution of the single lineage of P. relictum that has emerged in Hawaii. I demonstrate that this parasite has a broad host distribution worldwide, that it is likely of Old World origin and that it has been introduced to numerous islands around the world, where it may have been overlooked as a cause of decline in native birds. I also demonstrate that morphological classification of P. relictum does not capture differences among groups of parasites that appear to be reproductively isolated based on molecular evidence. Finally, I examined whether reduced immunological capacity, which has been proposed to explain the susceptibility of Hawaiian endemics, is a general feature of an "island syndrome" in isolated avifauna of the remote Pacific. I show that, over multiple time scales, changes in immune response are not uniform and that observed changes probably reflect differences in genetic diversity, parasite exposure and life history that are unique to each species.

"Call for prices": Strategic implications of raising consumers' costs

Many consumer durable retailers often do not advertise their prices and instead ask consumers to call them for prices. It is easy to see that this practice increases the consumers' cost of learning the prices of products they are considering, yet firms commonly use such practices. Not advertising prices may reduce the firm's advertising costs, but the strategic effects of doing so are not clear. Our objective is to examine the strategic effects of this practice. In particular, how does making price discovery more difficult for consumers affect competing retailers' price, service decisions, and profits? We develop a model in which a manufacturer sells its product through a high-service retailer and a low-service retailer. Consumers can purchase the retail service at the high-end retailer and purchase the product at the competing low-end retailer. Therefore, the high-end retailer faces a free-riding problem. A retailer first chooses its optimal service levels. Then, it chooses its optimal price levels. Finally, a retailer decides whether to advertise its prices. The model results in four structures: (1) both retailers advertise prices, (2) only the low-service retailer advertises price, (3) only the high-service retailer advertises price, and (4) neither retailer advertises price. We find that when a retailer does not advertise its price and makes price discovery more difficult for consumers, the competition between the retailers is less intense. However, the retailer is forced to charge a lower price. In addition, if the competing retailer does advertise its prices, then the competing retailer enjoys higher profit margins. We identify conditions under which each of the above four structures is an equilibrium and show that a low-service retailer not advertising its price is a more likely outcome than a high-service retailer doing so. We then solve the manufacturer's problem and find that there are several instances when a retailer's advertising decisions are different from what the manufacturer would want. We describe the nature of this channel coordination problem and identify some solutions. © 2010 INFORMS.

The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs.

The research and development costs of 68 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per new drug is 403 million US dollars (2000 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 11% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of 802 million US dollars (2000 dollars). When compared to the results of an earlier study with a similar methodology, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 7.4% above general price inflation.

R&D Costs and Returns to New Drug Development: A Review of the Evidence

© 2012 by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.This article reviews the extensive literature on R&D costs and returns. The first section focuses on R&D costs and the various factors that have affected the trends in real R&D costs over time. The second section considers economic studies on the distribution of returns in pharmaceuticals for different cohorts of new drug introductions. It also reviews the use of these studies to analyze the impact of policy actions on R&D costs and returns. The final section concludes and discusses open questions for further research.

Carbon mitigation costs for the commercial building sector: Discrete-continuous choice analysis of multifuel energy demand

We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of a marginal cost curve for carbon mitigation, which suggests that a price of $20 per ton of carbon would result in an 8% reduction in commercial carbon emissions, and a price of $100 per ton would result in a 28% reduction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benefits and Effects of Interactive Gaming Exercise as Compared to Traditional Exercise Techniques: An Investigation of the Relationship Between Physical Activity Levels and Mode of Activity in College Students

Gemstone Team F.I.T.N.E.S.S. (Fun Interactive Techniques for New Exercise and Sport Styles)

Design and Evaluation of a Retrofittable Electric Snow Melting System for Pavements

Gemstone Team SnowMelt