A comparison of extra-tropical cyclones in recent re-analyses; ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR and JRA-25

Extra-tropical cyclones are identified and compared using data from four recent re-analyses for the winter periods in both hemispheres. Results show the largest differences occur between the older lower resolution JRA25 re-analysis when compared with the newer high resolution re-analyses, in particular in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Spatial differences between the newest re-analyses are small in both hemispheres and generally not significant except some common regions associated with cyclogenesis close to orography. Intensities are generally related to spatial resolution except NASA-MERRA which has larger intensities for several different measures. Matching storms between re-analyses shows the number matched between ERA-Interim and the other re-analyses are similar in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In the SH the number matched between JRA25 and ERA-Interim is lower than in the NH, but for NASA-MERRA and NCEP-CFSR the number matched is similar to the NH. The mean separation of the identically same cyclones is typically less than 20 geodesic in both hemispheres for the latest re-analyses, whereas JRA25 compared with the other re-analyses has a broader distribution in the SH indicating greater uncertainty. The instantaneous intensity differences for matched storms shows narrow distributions for pressure while for winds and vorticity the distributions are much broader indicating larger uncertainty typical of smaller scale fields. Composite cyclone diagnostics show that cyclones are very similar between the re-analyses, with differences being related to the intensities, consistent with the intensity results. Overall, results show NH cyclones correspond well between re-analyses, with a significant improvement in the SH for the latest re-analyses, indicating a convergence between re-analyses for cyclone properties.

Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from NH extra-tropical cyclones

The effect of a warmer climate on the properties of extra-tropical cyclones is investigated using simulations of the ECHAM5 global climate model at resolutions of T213 (60 km) and T319 (40 km). Two periods representative of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries are investigated using the IPCC A1B scenario. The focus of the paper is on precipitation for the NH summer and winter seasons, however results from vorticity and winds are also presented. Similar number of events are identified at both resolutions. There are, however, a greater number of extreme precipitation events in the higher reso- lution run. The difference between maximum intensity distributions are shown to be statistically significant using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A Generalised Pareto Distribution is used to analyse changes in extreme precipitation and wind events. In both resolutions, there is an increase in the number of ex- treme precipitation events in a warmer climate for all seasons, together with a reduction in return period. This is not associated with any increased verti- cal velocity, or with any increase in wind intensity in the winter and spring. However, there is an increase in wind extremes in the summer and autumn associated with tropical cyclones migrating into the extra-tropics.

Does regional infrastructure investment stimulate extra housing and commercial building supply? Long-run evidence across the English regions

This paper uses long-term regional construction data to investigate whether increases infrastructure investment in the English regions leads to subsequent rises in housebuilding and new commercial property, using time series modeling. Both physical (roads and harbours) and social infrastructure (education and health) impacts are investigated across nine regions in England. Significant effects for physical infrastructure are found across most regions and, also, some evidence of a social infrastructure effect. The results are not consistent across regions, which may be due to geographical differences and to network and diversionary effects. However, the results do suggest that infrastructure does have some impact but follows differential lag structures. These results provide a test of the hypothesis of the economic benefits of infrastructure investment in an approach that has not been used before.

Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models

The extra-tropical response to El Niño in configurations of a coupled model with increased horizontal resolution in the oceanic component is shown to be more realistic than in configurations with a low resolution oceanic component. This general conclusion is independent of the atmospheric resolution. Resolving small-scale processes in the ocean produces a more realistic oceanic mean state, with a reduced cold tongue bias, which in turn allows the atmospheric model component to be forced more realistically. A realistic atmospheric basic state is critical in order to represent Rossby wave propagation in response to El Niño, and hence the extra-tropical response to El Niño. Through the use of high and low resolution configurations of the forced atmospheric-only model component we show that, in isolation, atmospheric resolution does not significantly affect the simulation of the extra-tropical response to El Niño. It is demonstrated, through perturbations to the SST forcing of the atmospheric model component, that biases in the climatological SST field typical of coupled model configurations with low oceanic resolution can account for the erroneous atmospheric basic state seen in these coupled model configurations. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale oceanic processes in producing a realistic large-scale mean climate in coupled models, and suggest that it might may be possible to “squeeze out” valuable extra performance from coupled models through increases to oceanic resolution alone.

Are greenhouse gas signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review

Based on the availability of hemispheric gridded data sets from observations, analysis and global climate models, objective cyclone identification methods were developed and applied to these data sets. Due to the large amount of investigation methods combined with the variety of different datasets, a multitude of results exist, not only for the recent climate period but also for the next century, assuming anthropogenic changed conditions. Different thresholds, different physical quantities, and considerations of different atmospheric vertical levels add to a picture that is difficult to combine into a common view of cyclones, their variability and trends, in the real world and in GCM studies. Thus, this paper will give a comprehensive review of the actual knowledge on climatologies of mid-latitude cyclones for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere for the present climate and for its possible changes under anthropogenic climate conditions.

Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models

This paper aims to understand the physical processes causing the large spread in the storm track projections of the CMIP5 climate models. In particular, the relationship between the climate change responses of the storm tracks, as measured by the 2–6 day mean sea level pressure variance, and the equator-to-pole temperature differences at upper- and lower-tropospheric levels is investigated. In the southern hemisphere the responses of the upper- and lower-tropospheric temperature differences are correlated across the models and as a result they share similar associations with the storm track responses. There are large regions in which the storm track responses are correlated with the temperature difference responses, and a simple linear regression model based on the temperature differences at either level captures the spatial pattern of the mean storm track response as well explaining between 30 and 60 % of the inter-model variance of the storm track responses. In the northern hemisphere the responses of the two temperature differences are not significantly correlated and their associations with the storm track responses are more complicated. In summer, the responses of the lower-tropospheric temperature differences dominate the inter-model spread of the storm track responses. In winter, the responses of the upper- and lower-temperature differences both play a role. The results suggest that there is potential to reduce the spread in storm track responses by constraining the relative magnitudes of the warming in the tropical and polar regions.

Genetic analysis reveals a novel locus in Vicia faba decoupling pigmentation in the flower from that in the extra-floral nectaries

The genetics of the stipule spot pigmentation (SSP) in faba bean (Vicia faba L.) was studied using four inbred lines, of which Disco/2 was zero-tannin (zt2) with colourless stipule spots, ILB938/2 was normal-tannin (ZT2) with colourless stipule spots, and both Aurora/2 and Mélodie/2 were ZT2 with coloured stipule spots. Crosses Mélodie/2 × ILB 938/2, Mélodie/2 × Disco/2, ILB 938/2 × Aurora/2 and ILB 938/2 × Disco/2 (A, B, C and D, respectively) were prepared, along with reciprocals and backcrosses, and advanced through single-seed descent. All F1 hybrid plants had pigmented stipule spots, and in the F2 generation, the segregation ratio fit 3 coloured:1 colourless in crosses A, B and C and 9:7 in cross D. In the F3 generation, the ratio fit 5:3 in crosses A and C and 25:39 in cross D, and in the F4 generation, 9:7 in cross A. SSP was linked to the zero-tannin characteristics (white flower) only in cross B. The results show that coloured stipule spot is dominant to colourless and that colouration is determined by two unlinked complementary recessive genes. We propose the symbols ssp2 for the gene associated with zt2 in Disco/2 and ssp1 for the gene not associated with tannin content in ILB938/2. The novel ssp1 locus was mapped at F5 in cross ‘A’ using Medicago truncatula-derived single-nucleotide polymorphism and was on chromosome 1 of faba bean, in a well-conserved region of M. truncatula chromosome 5 containing some candidate Myb and basic helix–loop–helix transcription factor genes.

Review: the predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond five days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecasts skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.

Topological interactions in warped extra dimensions

Topological interactions will be generated in theories with compact extra dimensions where fermionic chiral zero modes have different localizations. This is the case in many warped extra dimension models where the right-handed top quark is typically localized away from the left-handed one. Using deconstruction techniques, we study the topological interactions in these models. These interactions appear as trilinear and quadrilinear gauge boson couplings in low energy effective theories with three or more sites, as well as in the continuum limit. We derive the form of these interactions for various cases, including examples of Abelian, non-Abelian and product gauge groups of phenomenological interest. The topological interactions provide a window into the more fundamental aspects of these theories and could result in unique signatures at the Large Hadron Collider, some of which we explore.

Tha contribution of home-based technology to older people's quality of life in extra care housing

Background: British government policy for older people focuses on a vision of active ageing and independent living. In the face of diminishing personal capacities, the use of appropriate home-based technology (HBT) devices could potentially meet a wide range of needs and consequently improve many aspects of older people's quality of life such as physical health, psychosocial well-being, social relationships, and their physical or living environment. This study aimed to examine the use of HBT devices and the correlation between use of such devices and quality of life among older people living in extra-care housing (ECH).  Methods: A structured questionnaire was administered for this study. Using purposive sampling 160 older people living in extra-care housing schemes were selected from 23 schemes in England. A face-to-face interview was conducted in each participant's living unit. In order to measure quality of life, the SEIQoL-Adapted and CASP-19 were used.  Results: Although most basic appliances and emergency call systems were used in the living units, communally provided facilities such as personal computers, washing machines, and assisted bathing equipment in the schemes were not well utilised. Multiple regression analysis adjusted for confounders including age, sex, marital status, living arrangement and mobility use indicated a coefficient of 1.17 with 95% CI (0.05, 2.29) and p = 0.04 [SEIQoL-Adapted] and 2.83 with 95% CI (1.17, 4.50) and p = 0.001 [CASP-19].  Conclusions: The findings of the present study will be value to those who are developing new form of specialised housing for older people with functional limitations and, in particular, guiding investments in technological aids. The results of the present study also indicate that the home is an essential site for developing residential technologies.

”Kan regeringen lägga 48 miljarder extra på invandringen, kan man tycka att ett par miljoner kan gå till oss som bor här och är sjuka i hepatit C?” : Hur invandring och mångkultur uttrycks i insändare, en innehållsanalys

Under många år har ”invandringsfrågan” varit en mycket debatterad fråga. Detta märks inte minst i alla de insändare som publicerats i Dalarnas morgontidningar. Integration och ekonomi är exempel på ämnen som nämns i dessa insändare då diskursen invandring diskuteras. En betydande faktor i debatten har bland annat varit Sverigedemokraternas valframgångar. Med denna undersökning vill vi försöka kartlägga hur diskursen invandring framställs i insändare från Dala-demokraten. Detta har gjorts med en innehålls- och diskursanalys. Analysen har utgått från insändare mellan tidsperioden augusti-april 2002/2003 och 2014/2015, vilket motsvarar tiden kring de båda riksdagsvalen.Analysen har genererat fyra teman (mångkultur och svenskhet, integrationsfrågan och invandring, demokrati och yttrandefrihet och ekonomi och välfärd) som diskursen invandring kretsar kring. Utifrån dessa teman har vår analys visat att Sverigedemokraternas valframgångar tenderar att delvis influera diskursen invandring som insändarskribenterna förmedlar. Diskursen invandring har gått från att kretsa kring integrationsproblematik 2002/2003 till ekonomisk problematik 2014/2015. Analysen har även visat på ett ”vi och dem”-tänk som genomsyrar diskursen invandring under bägge tidsperioder. Detta sker både genom fördomsfulla framställningar av andra människor och i uppdelningen av vilka som ”bör” få ta del av Sveriges gemensamma medel.