Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches in clinical outcomes between hospitals

Many public health agencies and researchers are interested in comparing hospital outcomes, for example, morbidity, mortality, and hospitalization across areas and hospitals. However, since there is variation of rates in clinical trials among hospitals because of several biases, we are interested in controlling for the bias and assessing real differences in clinical practices. In this study, we compared the variations between hospitals in rates of severe Intraventricular Haemorrhage (IVH) infant using Frequentist statistical approach vs. Bayesian hierarchical model through simulation study. The template data set for simulation study was included the number of severe IVH infants of 24 intensive care units in Australian and New Zealand Neonatal Network from 1995 to 1997 in severe IVH rate in preterm babies. We evaluated the rates of severe IVH for 24 hospitals with two hierarchical models in Bayesian approach comparing their performances with the shrunken rates in Frequentist method. Gamma-Poisson (BGP) and Beta-Binomial (BBB) were introduced into Bayesian model and the shrunken estimator of Gamma-Poisson (FGP) hierarchical model using maximum likelihood method were calculated as Frequentist approach. To simulate data, the total number of infants in each hospital was kept and we analyzed the simulated data for both Bayesian and Frequentist models with two true parameters for severe IVH rate. One was the observed rate and the other was the expected severe IVH rate by adjusting for five predictors variables for the template data. The bias in the rate of severe IVH infant estimated by both models showed that Bayesian models gave less variable estimates than Frequentist model. We also discussed and compared the results from three models to examine the variation in rate of severe IVH by 20th centile rates and avoidable number of severe IVH cases. ^

Bayesian inference and its application to meta-analysis of epidemiologic data

In Part One, the foundations of Bayesian inference are reviewed, and the technicalities of the Bayesian method are illustrated. Part Two applies the Bayesian meta-analysis program, the Confidence Profile Method (CPM), to clinical trial data and evaluates the merits of using Bayesian meta-analysis for overviews of clinical trials.^ The Bayesian method of meta-analysis produced similar results to the classical results because of the large sample size, along with the input of a non-preferential prior probability distribution. These results were anticipated through explanations in Part One of the mechanics of the Bayesian approach. ^

Bayesian estimation of multilevel item response model with missing data

This study proposed a novel statistical method that modeled the multiple outcomes and missing data process jointly using item response theory. This method follows the "intent-to-treat" principle in clinical trials and accounts for the correlation between outcomes and missing data process. This method may provide a good solution to chronic mental disorder study. ^ The simulation study demonstrated that if the true model is the proposed model with moderate or strong correlation, ignoring the within correlation may lead to overestimate of the treatment effect and result in more type I error than specified level. Even if the within correlation is small, the performance of proposed model is as good as naïve response model. Thus, the proposed model is robust for different correlation settings if the data is generated by the proposed model.^

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

External validation study of a clinical prediction rule for ambulation outcomes after traumatic spinal cord injury

The main objective of this study was to determine the external validity of a clinical prediction rule developed by the European Multicenter Study on Human Spinal Cord Injury (EM-SCI) to predict the ambulation outcomes 12 months after traumatic spinal cord injury. Data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) data registry with approximately 500 SCI cases were used for this validity study. The predictive accuracy of the EM-SCI prognostic model was evaluated using calibration and discrimination based on 231 NACTN cases. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (ROC) curve was 0.927 (95% CI 0.894 – 0.959) for the EM-SCI model when applied to NACTN population. This is lower than the AUC of 0.956 (95% CI 0.936 – 0.976) reported for the EM-SCI population, but suggests that the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule distinguished well between those patients in the NACTN population who were able to achieve independent ambulation and those who did not achieve independent ambulation. The calibration curve suggests that higher the prediction score is, the better the probability of walking with the best prediction for AIS D patients. In conclusion, the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule was determined to be generalizable to the adult NACTN SCI population.^

Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^

ACGT: advancing clinico-genomic trials on cancer - four years of experience.

The challenges regarding seamless integration of distributed, heterogeneous and multilevel data arising in the context of contemporary, post-genomic clinical trials cannot be effectively addressed with current methodologies. An urgent need exists to access data in a uniform manner, to share information among different clinical and research centers, and to store data in secure repositories assuring the privacy of patients. Advancing Clinico-Genomic Trials (ACGT) was a European Commission funded Integrated Project that aimed at providing tools and methods to enhance the efficiency of clinical trials in the -omics era. The project, now completed after four years of work, involved the development of both a set of methodological approaches as well as tools and services and its testing in the context of real-world clinico-genomic scenarios. This paper describes the main experiences using the ACGT platform and its tools within one such scenario and highlights the very promising results obtained.

A review of clinical trial designs used to detect a disease-modifying effect of drug therapy in Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease

Acknowledgements This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Grant Reference Number RP-PG-0707-10124). The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the report or for the decision to submit for publication.

Valerian does not appear to reduce symptoms for patients with chronic insomnia in general practice using a series of randomised n-of-I trials

Objectives: To investigate the effectiveness of valerian for the management of chronic insomnia in general practice. Design: Valerian versus placebo in a series of n-of-1 trials, in Queensland, Australia. Results: Of 42 enrolled patients, 24 (57%) had sufficient data for inclusion into the n-of-1 analysis. Response to valerian was fair for 23 (96%) participants evaluating their 'energy level in the previous day' but poor or modest for all 24 (100%) participants' response to 'total sleep time' and for 23 (96%) participants' response to 'number of night awakenings' and 'morning refreshment'. As a group, the proportion of treatment successes ranged from 0.35 (95% CI 0.23, 0.47) to 0.55 (95% CI 0.43, 0.67) for the six elicited outcome sleep variables. There was no significant difference in the number (P = 0.06), distribution (P = 1.00) or severity (P = 0.46) of side effects between valerian and placebo treatments. Conclusions: Valerian was not shown to be appreciably better than placebo in promoting sleep or sleep-related factors for any individual patient or for all patients as a group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Who's really hypertensive? - Quality control issues in the assessment of blood pressure for randomized trials

The characterization of blood pressure in treatment trials assessing the benefits of blood pressure lowering regimens is a critical factor for the appropriate interpretation of study results. With numerous operators involved in the measurement of blood pressure in many thousands of patients being screened for entry into clinical trials, it is essential that operators follow pre-defined measurement protocols involving multiple measurements and standardized techniques. Blood pressure measurement protocols have been developed by international societies and emphasize the importance of appropriate choice of cuff size, identification of Korotkoff sounds, and digit preference. Training of operators and auditing of blood pressure measurement may assist in reducing the operator-related errors in measurement. This paper describes the quality control activities adopted for the screening stage of the 2nd Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2). ANBP2 is cardiovascular outcome trial of the treatment of hypertension in the elderly that was conducted entirely in general practices in Australia. A total of 54 288 subjects were screened; 3688 previously untreated subjects were identified as having blood pressure >140/90 mmHg at the initial screening visit, 898 (24%) were not eligible for study entry after two further visits due to the elevated reading not being sustained. For both systolic and diastolic blood pressure recording, observed digit preference fell within 7 percentage points of the expected frequency. Protocol adherence, in terms of the required minimum blood pressure difference between the last two successive recordings, was 99.8%. These data suggest that adherence to blood pressure recording protocols and elimination of digit preferences can be achieved through appropriate training programs and quality control activities in large multi-centre community-based trials in general practice. Repeated blood pressure measurement prior to initial diagnosis and study entry is essential to appropriately characterize hypertension in these elderly patients.

A Comparison of Methodologies from Two Longitudinal Community-Based Randomized Controlled Trials of Similar Interventions in Palliative Care: What Worked and What Did Not

Background: Methodological challenges such as recruitment problems and participant burden make clinical trials in palliative care difficult. In 2001-2004, two community-based randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of case conferences in palliative care settings were independently conducted in Australia-the Queensland Case Conferences trial (QCC) and the Palliative Care Trial (PCT). Design: A structured comparative study of the QCC and PCT was conducted, organized by known practical and organizational barriers to clinical trials in palliative care. Results: Differences in funding dictated study designs and recruitment success; PCT had 6 times the budget of QCC. Sample size attainment. Only PCT achieved the sample size goal. QCC focused on reducing attrition through gatekeeping while PCT maximized participation through detailed recruitment strategies and planned for significant attrition. Testing sustainable interventions. QCC achieved a higher percentage of planned case conferences; the QCC strategy required minimal extra work for clinicians while PCT superimposed conferences on normal work schedules. Minimizing participant burden. Differing strategies of data collection were implemented to reduce participant burden. QCC had short survey instruments. PCT incorporated all data collection into normal clinical nursing encounters. Other. Both studies had acceptable withdrawal rates. Intention-to-treat analyses are planned. Both studies included substudies to validate new outcome measures. Conclusions: Health service interventions in palliative care can be studied using RCTs. Detailed comparative information of strategies, successes and challenges can inform the design of future trials. Key lessons include adequate funding, recruitment focus, sustainable interventions, and mechanisms to minimize participant burden.

Quantifying short-term dynamics of Parkinson's disease using self-reported symptom data from an internet social network

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales.

Systematic review investigating the reporting of comorbidities and medication in randomized controlled trials of people with dementia

Objectives: dementia is a debilitating condition characterised by global loss of cognitive and intellectual functioning, which reduces social and occupational performance. This population frequently presents with medical co-morbidities such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. The CONSORT statement outlines recommended guidance on reporting of participant characteristics in clinical trials. It is, however, unclear how much these are adhered to in trials assessing people with dementia. This paper assesses the reporting of medical co-morbidities and prescribed medications for people with dementia within randomised controlled trial (RCT) reports. Design: a systematic review of the published literature from the databases AMED, CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Clinical Trial Registry from 1 January 1997 to 9 January 2014 was undertaken in order to identify RCTs detailing baseline medical co-morbidities and prescribed medications . Eligible studies were appraised using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) RCT appraisal tool, and descriptive statistical analyses were calculated to determine point prevalence. Results: nine trials, including 1474 people with dementia, were identified presenting medical co-morbidity data. These indicated neurological disorders ( prevalence 91%), vascular disorders (prevalence 91%), cardiac disorders ( prevalence 74%) and ischaemic cerebrovascular disease ( prevalence 53%) were most frequently seen. Conclusions: published RCTs poorly report medical co-morbidities and medications for people with dementia. Future trials should include the report of these items to allow interpretation of whether the results are generalisable to frailer older populations.

Systematic review and analysis of evidences on clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of biological drugs for the treatment of Ankylosing Spondylitis

Technology: Infliximab and comparator biological such as adalimumab, etanercept, golimumab. Conditions: Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) Issue: Infliximab is registered to be used in patients with AS. The aim of the Report is to evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of infliximab and comparator biologicals for the treatment of adult AS. Methods: Systematic literature review and analysis as well as meta-analysis (direct and indirect comparison) of published randomised controlled clinical trials (RCT) were performed, all relevant health economics literature were identified ad analysed. Results: Clinical efficacy of biological therapies is based on good clinical evidences regarding to all clinical efficacy endpoints (ASAS20, ASAS40, ASAS 5/6, and BASDAI 50% response). Altogether, 22 trials are included in our meta-analysis, 12 infliximab, 3 adalimumab studies, 6 etanercept and 1 golimumab. Efficacy of biological treatments for the treatment of AS has been established by clinical scientific evidences, significant improvement at all outcomes considered was confirmed. According to the results of indirect comparison, there were no significant difference between biological treatments and placebo in terms of safety and tolerability endpoints. We found no significant difference between the clinical efficacy and safety of infliximab, adalimumab, etanercept and golimumab therapies. Cost-utility analysis of adalimumab and/or infliximab, etanercept and golimumab treatment for AS were performed in the UK, Canada, The Netherlands, Germany, Spain and France. There are no cost-utility studies from Eastern Central Europe. Implications for decision making: Efficacy of infliximab and comparator biologicals for the treatment of Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) was proved by clinical evidence, significant improvement at all outcomes considered was confirmed. We found no significant differences in efficacy and safety of different biological treatments. Health economics results suggest that biological therapies are cost-effective alternatives for the treatment of AS in group of developed high income countries. There is a lack of health economics results in Central-Eastern European countries however these data are more and more required by governments and funders as part of the company economic dossiers.

Safety and efficacy of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir in black patients with hepatitis C virus infection: A retrospective analysis of phase 3 data.

UNLABELLED: Black patients chronically infected with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) have historically had lower rates of response to interferon-based treatment than patients of other races. In the phase 3 ION program, the single-tablet regimen of the NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir and NS5B nucleotide polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir was shown to be safe and highly effective in the general population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in black patients using data from the three open-label ION clinical trials, which evaluated the safety and efficacy of 8, 12, and 24 weeks of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir with or without ribavirin for the treatment of treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients with genotype 1 HCV, including those with compensated cirrhosis. The primary endpoint was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after the end of therapy (SVR12). For our analysis, rates of SVR12, treatment-emergent adverse events, and graded laboratory abnormalities were analyzed in black versus non-black patients. Of the 1949 patients evaluated, 308 (16%) were black. On average, black patients were older, had higher body mass index, were more likely to be IL28B non-CC, and had a lower serum alanine aminotransferase at baseline than non-black patients. Overall, 95% of black and 97% of non-black patients achieved SVR12. The rate of relapse was 3% in black patients as compared with 2% in non-black patients. The most common adverse events included fatigue, headache, nausea, and insomnia. The majority of adverse events occurred more frequently in the ribavirin-containing arms of the studies. No differences were observed in overall safety by race. CONCLUSION: A once-daily dosage of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir was similarly effective in black and non-black patients with genotype 1 HCV infection. The addition of ribavirin did not appear to increase SVR12 but was associated with higher rates of adverse events.