The Lausanne cohort Lc65+: a population-based prospective study of the manifestations, determinants and outcomes of frailty

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a relatively new geriatric concept referring to an increased vulnerability to stressors. Various definitions have been proposed, as well as a range of multidimensional instruments for its measurement. More recently, a frailty phenotype that predicts a range of adverse outcomes has been described. Understanding frailty is a particular challenge both from a clinical and a public health perspective because it may be a reversible precursor of functional dependence. The Lausanne cohort Lc65+ is a longitudinal study specifically designed to investigate the manifestations of frailty from its first signs in the youngest old, identify medical and psychosocial determinants, and describe its evolution and related outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through questionnaires, examination and performance tests. It comprised a wide range of medical and psychosocial dimensions, including a life course history of adverse events. Outcomes measures comprise subjective health, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, development of medical conditions or chronic health problems, falls, institutionalization, health services utilization, and death. Two additional random samples of 65-70 years old subjects will be surveyed in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943) and in 2014 (birth year 1944-1948). DISCUSSION: The Lc65+ study focuses on the sequence "Determinants --> Components --> Consequences" of frailty. It currently provides information on health in the youngest old and will allow comparisons to be made between the profiles of aging individuals born before, during and at the end of the Second World War.

Participation in a population-based physical activity programme as an aid for smoking cessation: a randomised trial.

OBJECTIVES: Exercise combined with nicotine therapy may help smoking cessation and minimise weight gain after quitting. Low participation in vigorous-intensity physical activity programmes precludes their population-wide applicability. In a randomised controlled trial, we tested whether a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme increases quit rates among sedentary smokers receiving nicotine therapy. METHODS: Participants (n=481; 57% male; mean age, 42.2 years (SD 10.1); mean cigarette consumption, 27 (SD 10.2) per day) were offered a nine-week smoking cessation programme consisting of a weekly 15-minute counselling session and the prescription of nicotine replacement therapy. In addition, participants in the physical activity group (n=229) also took part in a programme of moderate-intensity physical activity implemented at the national level, and offering nine weekly 60-minute sessions of physical activity. To ensure equal contact conditions, participants in the control group (n=252) attended weekly 60-minute health behaviour education sessions unrelated to physical activity. The primary outcome was continuous CO-verified smoking abstinence rates at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Continuous smoking abstinence rates were high and similar in the physical activity group and the control group at the end of the intervention (47% versus 46%, p=0.81) and at 1-year follow-up (27% versus 29%, p=0.71). The mean weight gain after one year was 4.4 kg and 6.2 kg among sustained quitters of the physical activity and control groups, respectively (p=0.06). CONCLUSION: Participation in a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme for 9 weeks in addition to a comprehensive smoking cessation programme did not significantly increase smoking cessation rates. A non-significant reduction in weight gain was observed among participants who quit smoking in the physical activity group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; US National Institutes for Health (available online at http://clinicaltrials.gov/; CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00521391).

Population pharmacokinetics of imatinib and the role of alpha-acid glycoprotein

AIMS: The aims of this observational study were to assess the variability in imatinib pharmacokinetics and to explore the relationship between its disposition and various biological covariates, especially plasma alpha1-acid glycoprotein concentrations. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM based on 321 plasma samples from 59 patients with either chronic myeloid leukaemia or gastrointestinal stromal tumours. The influence of covariates on oral clearance and volume of distribution was examined. Furthermore, the in vivo intracellular pharmacokinetics of imatinib was explored in five patients. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data, giving a mean (+/-SEM) oral clearance of 14.3 l h-1 (+/-1.0) and a volume of distribution of 347 l (+/-62). Oral clearance was influenced by body weight, age, sex and disease diagnosis. A large proportion of the interindividual variability (36% of clearance and 63% of volume of distribution) remained unexplained by these demographic covariates. Plasma alpha1-acid glycoprotein concentrations had a marked influence on total imatinib concentrations. Moreover, we observed an intra/extracellular ratio of 8, suggesting substantial uptake of the drug into the target cells. CONCLUSION: Because of the high pharmacokinetic variability of imatinib and the reported relationships between its plasma concentration and efficacy and toxicity, the usefulness of therapeutic drug monitoring as an aid to optimizing therapy should be further investigated. Ideally, such an approach should take account of either circulating alpha1-acid glycoprotein concentrations or free imatinib concentrations.

Updated survival data of the phase iii clinical trial of novottf-100a versus best standard chemotherapy for recurrent glioblastoma

NovoTTF-100A (TTF) is a portable device delivering low-intensity, intermediate-frequency, alternating electric fields using noninvasive, disposable scalp electrodes. TTF interferes with tumor cell division, and it has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM) based on data from a phase III trial. This presentation describes the updated survival data 2 years after completing recruitment. Adults with rGBM (KPS ≥ 70) were randomized (stratified by surgery and center) to either continuous TTF (20-24 h/day, 7 days/week) or efficacious chemotherapy based on best physician choice (BPC). The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints were PFS6, 1-year survival, and QOL. Patients were randomized (28 US and European centers) to either TTF alone (n ¼ 120) or BPC (n ¼ 117). Patient characteristics were balanced, median age was 54 years (range, 23-80 years), and median KPS was 80 (range, 50-100). One quarter of the patients had debulking surgery, and over half of the patients were at their second or later recurrence. OS in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population was equivalent in TTF versus BPC patients (median OS, 6.6vs. 6.0 months; n ¼ 237; p ¼ 0.26; HR ¼ 0.86). With a median follow-up of 33.6 months, long-term survival in the TTF group was higher than that in the BPC group at 2, 3, and 4 years of follow-up (9.3% vs. 6.6%; 8.4% vs. 1.4%; 8.4% vs. 0.0%, respectively). Analysis of patients who received at least one treatment course demonstrated a survival benefit for TTF patients compared to BPC patients (median OS, 7.8 vs. 6.0 months; n ¼ 93 vs. n ¼ 117; p ¼ 0.012; HR ¼ 0.69). In this group, 1-year survival was 28% vs. 20%, and PFS6 was 26.2% vs. 15.2% (p ¼ 0.034). TTF, a noninvasive, novel cancer treatment modality shows significant therapeutic efficacy with promising long-term survival results. The impact of TTF was more pronounced when comparing only patients who received the minimal treatment course. A large-scale phase III trial in newly diagnosed GBM is ongoing.

New validated prognostic models and prognostic calculators in patients with low-grade gliomas diagnosed by central pathology review: a pooled analysis of EORTC/RTOG/NCCTG phase III clinical trials.

Background In a previous study, the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) reported a scoring system to predict survival of patients with low-grade gliomas (LGGs). A major issue in the diagnosis of brain tumors is the lack of agreement among pathologists. New models in patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review are needed. Methods Data from 339 EORTC patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review were used to develop new prognostic models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Data from 450 patients with centrally diagnosed LGGs recruited into 2 large studies conducted by North American cooperative groups were used to validate the models. Results Both PFS and OS were negatively influenced by the presence of baseline neurological deficits, a shorter time since first symptoms (<30 wk), an astrocytic tumor type, and tumors larger than 5 cm in diameter. Early irradiation improved PFS but not OS. Three risk groups have been identified (low, intermediate, and high) and validated. Conclusions We have developed new prognostic models in a more homogeneous LGG population diagnosed by central pathology review. This population better fits with modern practice, where patients are enrolled in clinical trials based on central or panel pathology review. We could validate the models in a large, external, and independent dataset. The models can divide LGG patients into 3 risk groups and provide reliable individual survival predictions. Inclusion of other clinical and molecular factors might still improve models' predictions.

Population PK-guided simulation study in children exposed to drugs in human milk

Risks of significant infant drug exposure through human milk arepoorly defined due to lack of large-scale PK data. We propose to useBayesian approach based on population PK (popPK)-guided modelingand simulation for risk prediction. As a proof-of-principle study, weexploited fluoxetine milk concentration data from 25 women. popPKparameters including milk-to-plasma ratio (MP ratio) were estimatedfrom the best model. The dose of fluoxetine the breastfed infant wouldreceive through mother's milk, and infant plasma concentrations wereestimated from 1000 simulated mother-infant pairs, using randomassignment of feeding times and milk volume. A conservative estimateof CYP2D6 activity of 20% of the allometrically-adjusted adult valuewas assumed. Derived model parameters, including MP ratio were consistentwith those reported in the literature. Visual predictive check andother model diagnostics showed no signs of model misspecifications.The model simulation predicted that infant exposure levels to fluoxetinevia mother's milk were below 10% of weight-adjusted maternal therapeuticdoses in >99% of simulated infants. Predicted median ratio ofinfant-mother serum levels at steady state was 0.093 (range 0.033-0.31),consistent with literature reported values (mean=0.07; range 0-0.59).Predicted incidence of relatively high infant-mother ratio (>0.2) ofsteady-state serum fluoxetine concentrations was <1.3%. Overall, ourpredictions are consistent with clinical observations. Our approach maybe valid for other drugs, allowing in silico prediction of infant drugexposure risks through human milk. We will discuss application of thisapproach to another drug used in lactating women.

Prediction of infant drug exposure through breastfeeding: population PK modeling and simulation of fluoxetine

BACKGROUND: Risks of significant infant drug exposurethrough breastmilk are poorly defined for many drugs, and largescalepopulation data are lacking. We used population pharmacokinetics(PK) modeling to predict fluoxetine exposure levels ofinfants via mother's milk in a simulated population of 1000 motherinfantpairs.METHODS: Using our original data on fluoxetine PK of 25breastfeeding women, a population PK model was developed withNONMEM and parameters, including milk concentrations, wereestimated. An exponential distribution model was used to account forindividual variation. Simulation random and distribution-constrainedassignment of doses, dosing time, feeding intervals and milk volumewas conducted to generate 1000 mother-infant pairs with characteristicssuch as the steady-state serum concentrations (Css) and infantdose relative to the maternal weight-adjusted dose (relative infantdose: RID). Full bioavailability and a conservative point estimate of1-month-old infant CYP2D6 activity to be 20% of the adult value(adjusted by weigth) according to a recent study, were assumed forinfant Css calculations.RESULTS: A linear 2-compartment model was selected as thebest model. Derived parameters, including milk-to-plasma ratios(mean: 0.66; SD: 0.34; range, 0 - 1.1) were consistent with the valuesreported in the literature. The estimated RID was below 10% in >95%of infants. The model predicted median infant-mother Css ratio was0.096 (range 0.035 - 0.25); literature reported mean was 0.07 (range0-0.59). Moreover, the predicted incidence of infant-mother Css ratioof >0.2 was less than 1%.CONCLUSION: Our in silico model prediction is consistent withclinical observations, suggesting that substantial systemic fluoxetineexposure in infants through human milk is rare, but further analysisshould include active metabolites. Our approach may be valid forother drugs. [supported by CIHR and Swiss National Science Foundation(SNSF)]

What is "clinical data"? Why and how can they be collected during field surveys on medicinal plants?

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: "Reverse pharmacology", also called "bedside-to-bench" or "field to pharmacy" approach, is a research process starting with documentation of clinical outcome as observed by patients with different therapeutic regimens. The treatment most significantly associated with cure is selected for future studies: first, clinical safety and efficacy; then in vivo and vitro studies. Some clinical data, i.e. details on patient status and progress, can be collected during ethnobotanical surveys; they will help clinical researchers and, once effectiveness and safety are established, will also help users of traditional medicine make safer and more effective choices. To gather clinical data successfully, ethnopharmacologists need to be backed by an appropriate team of specialists in medicine and epidemiology. Ethnopharmacologists can also gather important data on traditional medicine safety. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The first step is to create a consensus on the meaning of "clinical data", their interest and importance. An understanding of why "a cure is not a proof of effectiveness" is a starting point to avoid faulty interpretation of the clinical observations. RESULTS: Experience showed that, with the "bedside-to-bench" approach, a treatment derived from traditional recipe can be scientifically validated (in terms of safety and effectiveness) with a cost of less than a million euros, thus providing an end-product that is affordable, available and sustainable. CONCLUSIONS: With rigorous clinical study results, medicinal plant users gain the possibility to refine heath strategies. The field surveyor may gain a better relationship with the population, once she/he is seen as bringing information useful for the quality of care in the community.

Clinical consequences of imatinib plasma concentrations variability in hemato-oncologic patients

Background: Imatinib has revolutionized the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). Considering the large inter-individual differences in the function of the systems involved in its disposition, exposure to imatinib can be expected to vary widely among patients. This observational study aimed at describing imatinib pharmacokinetic variability and its relationship with various biological covariates, especially plasma alpha1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and at exploring the concentration-response relationship in patients. Methods: A population pharmacokinetic model (NONMEM) including 321 plasma samples from 59 patients was built up and used to derive individual post-hoc Bayesian estimates of drug exposure (AUC; area under curve). Associations between AUC and therapeutic response or tolerability were explored by ordered logistic regression. Influence of the target genotype (i.e. KIT mutation profile) on response was also assessed in GIST patients. Results: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data, with an average oral clearance of 14.3 L/h (CL) and volume of distribution of 347 L (Vd). A large inter-individual variability remained unexplained, both on CL (36%) and Vd (63%), but AGP levels proved to have a marked impact on total imatinib disposition. Moreover, both total and free AUC correlated with the occurrence and number of side effects (e.g. OR 2.9±0.6 for a 2-fold free AUC increase; p<0.001). Furthermore, in GIST patients, higher free AUC predicted a higher probability of therapeutic response (OR 1.9±0.5; p<0.05), notably in patients with tumor harboring an exon 9 mutation or wild-type KIT, known to decrease tumor sensitivity towards imatinib. Conclusion: The large pharmacokinetic variability, associated to the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationship uncovered are arguments to further investigate the usefulness of individualizing imatinib prescription based on TDM. For this type of drug, it should ideally take into consideration either circulating AGP concentrations or free drug levels, as well as KIT genotype for GIST.

Population pharmacokinetics of ganciclovir in solid-organ transplant recipients receiving oral valganciclovir.

Valganciclovir (VGC) is an oral prodrug of ganciclovir (GCV) recently introduced for prophylaxis and treatment of cytomegalovirus infection. Optimal concentration exposure for effective and safe VGC therapy would require either reproducible VGC absorption and GCV disposition or dosage adjustment based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). We examined GCV population pharmacokinetics in solid organ transplant recipients receiving oral VGC, including the influence of clinical factors, the magnitude of variability, and its impact on efficacy and tolerability. Nonlinear mixed effect model (NONMEM) analysis was performed on plasma samples from 65 transplant recipients under VGC prophylaxis or treatment. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), patient gender, and graft type (clearance/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart, and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient and interoccasion variabilities of 26 and 12%, respectively. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V(1) = 0.34 liter/kg in males and 0.27 liter/kg in females [20% interpatient variability]). No significant drug interaction was detected. The good prophylactic efficacy and tolerability of VGC precluded the demonstration of any relationship with GCV concentrations. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of the GCV profile after treatment with oral VGC, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated in solid-organ transplant recipients. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population (epublish)

BACKGROUND: Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. METHODS: We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS: The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). CONCLUSIONS: We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

Suicide in HIV-infected individuals and the general population in Switzerland, 1988-2008.

OBJECTIVE: High rates of suicide have been described in HIV-infected patients, but it is unclear to what extent the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has affected suicide rates. The authors examined time trends and predictors of suicide in the pre-HAART (1988-1995) and HAART (1996-2008) eras in HIV-infected patients and the general population in Switzerland. METHOD: The authors analyzed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss general population. The authors calculated standardized mortality ratios comparing HIV-infected patients with the general population and used Poisson regression to identify risk factors for suicide. RESULTS: From 1988 to 2008, 15,275 patients were followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for a median duration of 4.7 years. Of these, 150 died by suicide (rate 158.4 per 100,000 person-years). In men, standardized mortality ratios declined from 13.7 (95% CI=11.0-17.0) in the pre-HAART era to 3.5 (95% CI=2.5-4.8) in the late HAART era. In women, ratios declined from 11.6 (95% CI=6.4-20.9) to 5.7 (95% CI=3.2-10.3). In both periods, suicide rates tended to be higher in older patients, in men, in injection drug users, and in patients with advanced clinical stage of HIV illness. An increase in CD4 cell counts was associated with a reduced risk of suicide. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide rates decreased significantly with the introduction of HAART, but they remain above the rate observed in the general population, and risk factors for suicide remain similar. HIV-infected patients remain an important target group for suicide prevention.

Population based resource allocation: The use of hybrid risk adjustment

The emphasis on integrated care implies new incentives that promote coordinationbetween levels of care. Considering a population as a whole, the resource allocation systemhas to adapt to this environment. This research is aimed to design a model that allows formorbidity related prospective and concurrent capitation payment. The model can be applied inpublicly funded health systems and managed competition settings.Methods: We analyze the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective orconcurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding total health expenditures for thepopulation of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2004 and2005.Results: The hybrid model reimburses integrated care organizations avoiding excessive risktransfer and maximizing incentives for efficiency in the provision. At the same time, it eliminatesincentives for risk selection for a specific set of high risk individuals through the use ofconcurrent reimbursement in order to assure a proper classification of patients.Conclusion: Prospective Risk Adjustment is used to transfer the financial risk to the healthprovider and therefore provide incentives for efficiency. Within the context of a National HealthSystem, such transfer of financial risk is illusory, and the government has to cover the deficits.Hybrid risk adjustment is useful to provide the right combination of incentive for efficiency andappropriate level of risk transfer for integrated care organizations.

Estimates of patient costs related with population morbidity: Can indirect costs affect the results?

A number of health economics works require patient cost estimates as a basic information input.However the accuracy of cost estimates remains in general unspecified. We propose to investigate howthe allocation of indirect costs or overheads can affect the estimation of patient costs in order to allow forimprovements in the analysis of patient costs estimates. Instead of focusing on the costing method, thispaper proposes to highlight changes in variance explained observed when a methodology is chosen. Wecompare three overhead allocation methods for a specific Spanish population adjusted using the ClinicalRisk Groups (CRG), and we obtain different series of full-cost group estimates. As a result, there aresignificant gains in the proportion of the variance explained, depending upon the methodology used.Furthermore, we find that the global amount of variation explained by risk adjustment models dependsmainly on direct costs and is independent of the level of aggregation used in the classification system.

Blood pressure normalization in a large population of hypertensive patients treated with perindopril/indapamide combination: results of the OPTIMAX trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the fixed-dose perindopril/indapamide combination (Per/Ind) normalizes blood pressure (BP) in the same fraction of hypertensive patients when treated in everyday practice or in controlled trials. METHODS: In this prospective trial, 17 938 hypertensive patients were treated with Per 2 mg/Ind 0.625 mg for 3-6 months. In Group 1 Per/Ind was initiated in newly diagnosed patients (n = 7032); in Group 2 Per/Ind replaced previous therapy in patients already treated but having either their BP still uncontrolled or experiencing side-effects (n = 7423); in Group 3 Per/Ind was added to previous treatment in patients with persistently high BP (n = 3483). BP was considered normalized when &lt; or = 140/90 mm Hg. A multivariate analysis for predictors of BP normalization was performed. RESULTS: Subjects were on average 62 years old and had a baseline BP of 162.3/93.6 mm Hg. After treatment with Per/Ind, BP normalization was reached in 69.6% of patients in the Initiation group, 67.5% in the Replacement Group, and 67.4% in the Add-on Group (where patients were more frequently at risk, diabetic, or with target organ damage). Mean decreases in systolic BP of 22.8 mm Hg and in diastolic BP of 12.4 mm Hg were recorded. CONCLUSIONS: This trial was established to reflect everyday clinical practice, and a treatment strategy based on the Per/Ind combination, administered as initial, replacement, or add-on therapy, led to normalization rates that were superior to those observed in Europe in routine practice. These results support recent hypertension guidelines which encourage the use of combination therapy in the management of arterial hypertension.