999 resultados para Climate signal


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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Naturwiss., Diss., 2012

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Naturwiss., Diss., 2013

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2015

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The Rufous Hornero (Furnarius rufus) is one of the most common bird species in Brazil. Anecdotal information indicates that nest opening orientation in this species is contrary to wind or rainfall direction. To check for the existence of such a pattern, F. rufus nests were randomly sampled within an urban area in central Brazil to assess whether factors such as wind and vegetation cover influence nest opening orientation. Using circular statistics, no evidence was found that nest-opening orientation was important for the species. These results refuse the expected pattern for tree hollow or enclosed nests. The results suggest that factors such as nesting architecture, nest material, nest microclimate or a combination of these, instead of local climate, must be conditioning nesting behavior in this species.

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The aim of this study was to characterize, for the central region of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, the reproductive biology of Leptodactylus fuscus (Schneider, 1799), based on the analysis of gonadal development of males and females, reproductive effort, size-fecundity relationships, and occurrence of sexual dimorphism in body size. Mature individuals were found from October 1996 to February 1997 and from October 1997 to December 1997. The highest input of juveniles in the population was recorded in March 1997. There was a positive and significant correlation between the number of mature individuals and the mean monthly temperature. The population did not present sexual dimorphism in size. Males presented significant correlation only between snout-vent length and testes length. All females had oocytes at four different maturation stages and there were no significant correlations regarding size-fecundity variables. The correlation between ovarian size factor and females snout-vent length was not significant either. The main difference between this population and those that inhabit tropical climate was that temperature was responsible for stimulating the reproduction activity, instead of rainfall.

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Flight activity of foragers of four colonies of Plebeia remota (Holmberg, 1903) was registered from December 1998 to December 1999, using an automated system (photocells and PLC system). The colonies originated from two different regions: Cunha, state of São Paulo, and Prudentópolis, state of Paraná, Brazil. Flight activity was influenced by different climatic factors in each season. In the summer, the intensity of the correlations between flight activity and climatic factors was smaller than in the other seasons. During the autumn and winter, solar radiation was the factor that most influenced flight activity, while in the spring, this activity was influenced mainly by temperature. Except in the summer, the various climatic factors similarly influenced flight activity of all of the colonies. Flight activity was not affected by geographic origin of the colonies. Information concerning seasonal differences in flight activity of P. remota will be useful for prediction of geographic distribution scenarios under climatic changes.

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ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

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This paper shows the numerous problems of conventional economic analysis in the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies. The article points out the many limitations, omissions, and the arbitrariness that have characterized most evaluation models applied up until now. These shortcomings, in an almost overwhelming way, have biased the result towards the recommendation of a lower aggressiveness of emission mitigation policies. Consequently, this paper questions whether these results provide an appropriate answer to the problem. Finally, various points that an analysis coherent with sustainable development should take into account are presented.

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Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

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RATIONALE: Lung injury leads to pulmonary inflammation and fibrosis through myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MyD88) and the IL-1 receptor 1 (IL-1R1) signaling pathway. The molecular mechanisms by which lung injury triggers IL-1beta production, inflammation, and fibrosis remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To determine if lung injury depends on the NALP3 inflammasome and if bleomycin (BLM)-induced lung injury triggers local production of uric acid, thereby activating the NALP3 inflammasome in the lung. Methods: Inflammation upon BLM administration was evaluated in vivo in inflammasome-deficient mice. Pulmonary uric acid accumulation, inflammation, and fibrosis were analyzed in mice treated with the inhibitor of uric acid synthesis or with uricase, which degrades uric acid. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Lung injury depends on the NALP3 inflammasome, which is triggered by uric acid locally produced in the lung upon BLM-induced DNA damage and degradation. Reduction of uric acid levels using the inhibitor of uric acid synthesis allopurinol or uricase leads to a decrease in BLM-induced IL-1beta production, lung inflammation, repair, and fibrosis. Local administration of exogenous uric acid crystals recapitulates lung inflammation and repair, which depend on the NALP3 inflammasome, MyD88, and IL-1R1 pathways and Toll-like receptor (TLR)2 and TLR4 for optimal inflammation but are independent of the IL-18 receptor. CONCLUSIONS: Uric acid released from injured cells constitutes a major endogenous danger signal that activates the NALP3 inflammasome, leading to IL-1beta production. Reducing uric acid tissue levels represents a novel therapeutic approach to control IL-1beta production and chronic inflammatory lung pathology.

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Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

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This paper examines the optimal design of climate change policies in the context where governments want to encourage the private sector to undertake significant immediate investment in developing cleaner technologies, but the carbon taxes and other environmental policies that could in principle stimulate such investment will be imposed over a very long future. The conventional claim by environmental economists is that environmental policies alone are sufficient to induce firms to undertake optimal investment. However this argument requires governments to be able to commit to these future taxes, and it is far from clear that governments have this degree of commitment. We assume instead that governments cannot commit, and so both they and the private sector have to contemplate the possibility of there being governments in power in the future that give different (relative) weights to the environment. We show that this lack of commitment has a significant asymmetric effect. Compared to the situation where governments can commit it increases the incentive of the current government to have the investment undertaken, but reduces the incentive of the private sector to invest. Consequently governments may need to use additional policy instruments – such as R&D subsidies – to stimulate the required investment.