Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

The European Union Perception of Cuba: From Frustation to Irritation

On Friday May 16, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cuba summoned the newly-appointed charged’affairs of the European Commission in Havana and announced the withdrawal of the application procedure for membership in the Cotonou Agreement of the Africa, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries, and in fact renouncing to benefit from European development aid.1 In a blistering note published in the Granma official newspaper of the Cuban Communist Party, the government blamed the EU Commission for exerting undue pressure, its alleged alignment with the policies of the United States, and censure for the measures taken by Cuba during the previous weeks.2 In reality, Cuba avoided an embarrasin flat rejection for its application. This was the anti-climatic ending for a long process that can be traced back to the end of the Cold War, in a context where Cuba has been testing alternative grounds to substitute for the overwhelming protection of the Soviet Union

La perception des responsables des finances confrontée à l'économétrie des soldes budgétaires : le cas des cantons suisses

Cette contribution a pour objectif d'analyser comment les responsables cantonaux des finances perçoivent l'influence de certaines variables sur les soldes budgétaires publics. A cet effet, elle modélise la façon dont une erreur de perception peut influencer l'écart entre le solde budgété et le solde effectif. Ensuite, elle présente le questionnaire utilisé pour connaître la perception des responsables des finances des cantons suisses. Finalement, les résultats de l'enquête sont analysés, puis confrontés à ceux obtenus préalablement par des études économétriques. L'analyse montre qu'un consensus se dégage pour prêter une forte influence à certains facteurs (consensus autour de l'idée que les recettes déterminent les dépenses, etc.). Ces perceptions sont confondes aux conclusions des analyses économétriques. Pour d'autres facteurs (ancrage rural de la population etc.), elle montre que les perceptions divergent, alors que l'économétrie constate une influence significative et univoque. Ces résultats permettent de formuler quelques recommandations pour l'élaboration des budgets publics et pour la poursuite des études visant à modéliser les soldes budgétaires.

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?

Questions: Did the forest area in the Swiss Alps increase between 1985 and 1997? Does the forest expansion near the tree line represent an invasion into abandoned grasslands (ingrowth) or a true upward shift of the local tree line? What land cover / land use classes did primarily regenerate to forest, and what forest structural types did primarily regenerate? And, what are possible drivers of forest regeneration in the tree line ecotone, climate and/or land use change? Location: Swiss Alps. Methods: Forest expansion was quantified using data from the repeated Swiss land use statistics GEOSTAT. A moving window algorithm was developed to distinguish between forest ingrowth and upward shift. To test a possible climate change influence, the resulting upward shifts were compared to a potential regional tree line. Results: A significant increase of forest cover was found between 1650 to and 2450 m. Above 1650 m, 10% of the new forest areas were identified as true upward shifts whereas 90% represented ingrowth, and we identified both land use and climate change as likely drivers. Most upward shift activities were found to occur within a band of 300 m below the potential regional tree line, indicating land use as the most likely driver. Only 4% of the upward shifts were identified to rise above the potential regional tree line, thus indicating climate change. Conclusions: Land abandonment was the most dominant driver for the establishment of new forest areas, even at the tree line ecotone. However, a small fraction of upwards shift can be attributed to the recent climate warming, a fraction that is likely to increase further if climate continues to warm, and with a longer time-span between warming and measurement of forest cover.

An alternative socio-ecological strategy? International Trade Unions' engagement with climate change

In the context of a global ecological crisis, it is an important move when trade unions turn to environmentalism. Yet, the form that this environmentalism takes is often overlooked. This is especially the case with international trade unions. Based on an empirical study of international trade unions' engagement with the climate change issue, this article argues that international trade unions follow three different (and partially conflicting) strategies. I label these strategies as 'deliberative', 'collaborative growth' and 'socialist', and I examine each in turn. I argue that such analysis is important if we want to identify the potential for transforming the social relations of production that are at the root of the current climate crisis, and for identifying an alternative socio-ecological strategy.

Reaction-diffusion wave fronts: Multigeneration biological species under climate change

A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion

Extremal principle of entropy production in the climate system

Paltridge found reasonable values for the most significant climatic variables through maximizing the material transport part of entropy production by using a simple box model. Here, we analyse Paltridge's box model to obtain the energy and the entropy balance equations separately. Derived expressions for global entropy production, which is a function of the radiation field, and even its material transport component, are shown to be different from those used by Paltridge. Plausible climatic states are found at extrema of these parameters. Feasible results are also obtained by minimizing the radiation part of entropy production, in agreement with one of Planck's results, Finally, globally averaged values of the entropy flux of radiation and material entropy production are obtained for two dynamical extreme cases: an earth with uniform temperature, and an earth in radiative equilibrium at each latitudinal point

Perception of damaging effects of smoking, and brief cessation counselling by doctors : a comparison between native Swiss and immigrants

Résumé Une étude prospective ouverte a été menée parmi les patients venant pour la première fois, sans rendez-vous et en urgence, dans une policlinique urbaine (où plus de la moitié des patients sont d'origine étrangère) pour déterminer si les connaissances sur les méfaits du tabac sont identiques chez les immigrés et les Suisses, si le niveau d'intégration influence les connaissances et si les médecins du service donnent des conseils aussi souvent aux fumeurs Suisses qu'aux fumeurs étrangers. 226 fumeurs ont participé à l'étude, 105 Suisses (46.5%) et 121 étrangers (53,5%). 32.2% (95% IC [24.4%; 41.1%]) des migrants et 9.6% [5.3% ; 16.8%] des Suisses ne pouvaient pas mentionner un effet nocif du tabac. Après ajustement pour l'âge, l'analyse multivariée montre que le risque d'ignorer les méfaits du tabac est plus élevé pour les personnes ne maîtrisant pas la langue locale que pour celles la maîtrisant (odds ratio (OR)=7.5 [3.6; 15.8], p<0,001), et est plus élevé pour les hommes que pour les femmes (OR=4.3 [1.9 10.0], p<0.001). Un conseil pour arrêter de fumer a été donné avec une égale fréquence aux immigrants (31.9% [24.2% ; 40.1%]) et aux Suisses (29% [21.0% ; 38.5%]). Les patients ne maîtrisant pas la langue locale n'ont pas reçu moins de conseil que ceux la maîtrisant (0R-1.1 [0.6 ; 2.1], p=0.812). En conclusion, le niveau de connaissances des méfaits du tabac est moins bon chez les hommes immigrés non intégrés ou qui ne maîtrisent pas la langue locale. Un conseil sur l'arrêt du tabac n'est donné qu'à une minorité, mais à égale fréquence à tous les patients du service, quelle que soit leur nationalité. Abstract An open prospective study was conducted among the patients visiting an urban medical policlinic for the first time without an appointment to assess whether the immigrants (who represent more than half of our patients) are aware of the health effects of smoking, whether the level of acculturation influences knowledge, and whether doctors give similar advice to Swiss and foreign smokers. 226 smokers, 105 Swiss (46.5%), and 121 foreign-born (53.5%), participated in the study. 32.2% (95% CI [24.4%; 41.1%]) of migrants and 9.6% [5.3%; 16.8%] of Swiss patients were not aware of negative effects of smoking. After adjustment for age, the multivariate model showed that the estimated odds of "ignorance of health effects of smoking" was higher for people lacking mastery of the local language compared with those mastering it (odds ratio (OR) = 7.5 [3.6; 15.8], p <0.001), and higher for men (OR 4.3 [1.9; 10.0], p <0.001). Advice to stop smoking was given with similar frequency to immigrants (31.9% [24.2%; 40.8%] and Swiss patients (29.0% [21.0%; 38.5%]). Non-integrated patients did not appear to receive less counselling than integrated patients (OR = 1.1 [0.6; 2.1], p 0.812). We conclude that the level of knowledge among male immigrants not integrated or unable to speak the local language is lower than among integrated foreign-born and Swiss patients. Smoking cessation counselling by a doctor was only given to a minority of patients, but such counselling seemed irrespective of nationality.

Evolution de la perception de l'activité physique des patients diabétiques de type 2 dans un programme éducatif centré sur l'activité physique (DIAfit).

Objectif: Évaluer la concordance entre l'évolution de la perception des patients diabétiques type 2 et l'évolution de mesures quantifiables, dans le contexte d'un programme d'activité physique adapté. Ce programme se base sur l'accompagnement interdisciplinaire dans un concept éducatif et motivationnel (36 séances d'activité physique et 6-8 h d'atelier). Matériels et méthodes: Évaluation de la perception des patients portant sur : activité physique, condition physique, contrôle métabolique, gestion des corrections hypo/hyperglycémie, autonomisation et bien-être. Nous avons utilisé une cible d'auto-évaluation, composée d'échelles de Likert de 1 à 10 (1 = mauvais 10 = excellent). Concernant la condition physique nous avons mesuré : endurance, vitesse de marche, force, équilibre et souplesse. En fin de programme un questionnaire de satisfaction comprenant 5 items a été distribué. Résultats: Analyse des données de 40 patients, âge 59 ± 10 ans, 60 % femmes. Avant programme, 60 % des patients s'estiment insuffisants (moyenne < 5/10) face à la pratique de l'activité, la condition physique et le contrôle métabolique. Le bien-être se situe en moyenne à 5,4/10. Après programme, 75 % des patients montrent une progression dans tous les domaines (moyenne 7,4/10). Une corrélation positive apparaît entre l'amélioration de la condition physique et le bienêtre. Tous les paramètres physiques mesurés se sont aussi améliorés. L'amélioration de la condition physique perçue est corrélée avec celle de la force (p = 0,006). Le travail interdisciplinaire réalisé a été perçu positivement par 87,9 % des patients. La communication était de bonne qualité pour 78,1 % ainsi que le climat d'apprentissage (82,4 %). La majorité des patients (64,7 %) est très satisfaite du programme. Conclusion: Ce programme est prometteur, il montre l'amélioration de la perception et de la condition physique avec une concordance entre les deux. Cette amélioration laisse imaginer que les plus confiants sur leur capacité à agir puissent s'impliquer d'avantage dans la gestion quotidienne et dans la poursuite d'un projet d'activité.