Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Increase in mortality due to myocardial infarction in the Brazilian city of São Paulo during winter

OBJECTIVE: To study the seasonal variation in mortality due to myocardial infarction in the city of São Paulo. METHODS: We analyzed the database of PROAIM (Programa de Aprimoramento de Informações de Mortalidade) containing the registrations of the certificates of deaths due to myocardial infarction (International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition, classification I21) of the residents of the municipality of São Paulo during 12 months (from December 1996 to November 1997). The number of deaths was corrected for a standard period of 90 days and then it was divided by the corresponding population to obtain the event rate per 10 thousand inhabitants. The magnitude of the seasonal variation, which was defined by the difference of the relative risks between the seasons with higher and lower mortality, was estimated. RESULTS: A total of 5,615 deaths due to myocardial infarction were included in the study. Sixty-one per cent occurred in the male sex, and the mean age was 68 years. The mortality rate during winter was always higher and that during summer was lower than that during the other seasons (P<0.01), independent from age and sex. Seasonal variations in deaths due to myocardial infarction was 30% in the general group, being 23% in individuals who died younger than 75 years, and 44% in the older ones. CONCLUSION: A marked seasonal variation in mortality due to myocardial infarction was observed in the city of São Paulo, with a significant increase in its magnitude and age distribution during the winter, similar to those reported in regions of North America and Europe with temperate climates.

Clinical Profile, Predictors of Mortality, and Treatment of Patients after Myocardial Infarction, in an Academic Medical Center Hospital

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical profiles, predictors of 30-day mortality, and the adherence to international recommendations for the treatment of myocardial infarction in an academic medical center hospital. METHODS: We retrospectively studied 172 patients with acute myocardial infarction, admitted in the intensive care unit from January 1992 to December 1997. RESULTS: Most patients were male (68%), white (97%), and over 60 years old (59%). The main risk factor for coronary atherosclerotic disease was systemic blood hypertension (63%). Among all the variables studied, reperfusion therapy, smoking, hypertension, cardiogenic shock, and age were the predictors of 30-day mortality. Most commonly used medications were: acetylsalicylic acid (71%), nitrates (61%), diuretics (51%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (46%), thrombolytic therapy (39%), and beta-blockers (35%). CONCLUSION: The absence of reperfusion therapy, smoking status, hypertension, cardiogenic shock, and advanced age are predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction. In addition, some medications that are undoubtedly beneficial have been under-used after acute myocardial infarction.

Acute myocardial infarction in elderly patients: comparative analysis of the predictors of mortality. The elderly versus the young

OBJECTIVE: To study the in-hospital evolution of patients aged 65 years and older, with acute myocardial infarction, who were treated by direct coronary angioplasty with no fibrinolytic therapy. METHODS: We studied 885 patients divided into 2 groups as follows: group I (GI) - 293 (33.4%) patients aged ³ 65 years (72±5 years), and group II (GII) - 592 patients aged < 65 years (57±9 years). Multivessel disease was more frequent in GI (63.5% x 49.7%; p=0.001). A greater number of GII patients were class I or II of the clinical Killip-Kimball classification (K) (80.2% x 67.2%; p=0.00002), while a significant number of GI patients were KIII and KIV (24.3% x 12.8%; p=0.00003). RESULTS: Group I had a lower index of success (84.6% x 94%; p=0.0002) and a greater in-hospital mortality (12.2% x 4.7%; p=0.00007). The predictors of mortality in GI were as follows: previous infarction (20.5% x 6.3%; p=0.02), anterior location (13.4% x 6.4%; p=0.03), and male sex (10.4% x 4.4%; p=0.007). CONCLUSION: Elderly patients had more severe acute myocardial infarction and more extensive disease, a lower index of success, and greater in-hospital mortality. Previous infarction, anterior location and male sex were identified as predictors of mortality in the elderly group (GI).

Trends in Productive Years of Life Lost to Premature Mortality Due to Coronary Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of productive years of life lost to premature death due to coronary heart disease in Brazil and to report their trends over a 20-year period. METHODS: The Brazilian Ministry of Health raw database on death due to coronary heart disease from 1979-1998 was used. The productive years of life lost to premature death were estimated using 20 and 59 years of age as the cut points for the productive years, replacing the potential years of 1 and 70 of the original formula. A descriptive analysis was provided with adjustments, means, proportions, ratios, percentages of increase or reduction, and mobile means. RESULTS: A 35.8% increase in death for males and 51.3% for females was observed, +43.3% being the relative difference for females. The annual means of the productive years of life prematurely lost were analyzed in 140,865 males and 58,559 females, with the differential ratio between the age groups ranging from 2.3 to 2.5. The annual means were less favorable for males. Within each group (intragroup), the ratios decreased with the increase in age, and the age means at the time of death remained constant. The raw tendencies decreased in the 20- to 29-year age group and increased in the 40- to 59-year age group for females and the 40- to 49-year age group for males. When adjusted, the raw tendencies decreased. CONCLUSION: The 43.3% increase in the number of female deaths as compared with that of males and the ascending tendency in the productive years of life lost in the 40- to 59-year age group point to the influence of unfavorable changes in female lifestyles and suggest a deficiency in programs for prevention and control of risk factors and in their treatment in both sexes.

Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and of severe perioperative complications in myocardial revascularization surgery

OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

Acute myocardial infarction: predictors of mortality at a public hospital in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará state

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical and demographic predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction with elevation of the ST segment in a public hospital, in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará state, Brazil. METHODS: A retrospective study of 373 patients experiencing their first episode of acute myocardial infarction was carried out. Of the study patients, 289 were discharged from the hospital (group A) and 84 died (group B). Both groups were analyzed regarding: sex; age; time elapsed from the beginning of the symptoms of myocardial infarction to assistance at the hospital; use of streptokinase; risk factors for atherosclerosis; electrocardiographic location of myocardial infarct; and Killip functional class. RESULTS: In a univariate analysis, group B had a greater proportion of the following parameters as compared with group A: non-Killip I functional class; diabetes; age >70 years; infarction of the inferior wall associated with right ventricular impairment; time between symptom onset and treatment at the hospital >12 h; anteroseptal or extensive anterior infarction; no use of streptokinase; and no tobacco use. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, only non-Killip I functional class, diabetes, and age >70 years persisted as independent factors for death. CONCLUSION: Non-Killip I functional class, diabetes, and age >70 years were independent predictors of mortality in acute myocardial infarction with elevation of the ST segment.

Mortality by Heart Failure and Ischemic Heart Disease in Brazil from 1996 to 2011

Background:Circulatory system diseases are the first cause of death in Brazil.Objective:To analyze the evolution of mortality caused by heart failure, by ischemic heart diseases and by ill-defined causes, as well as their possible relations, in Brazil and in the geoeconomic regions of the country (North, Northeast, Center-West, South and Southeast), from 1996 to 2011.Methods:Data were obtained from DATASUS and death declaration records with codes I20 and I24 for acute ischemic diseases, I25 for chronic ischemic diseases, and I50 for heart failure, and codes in chapter XIII for ill-defined causes, according to geoeconomic regions of Brazil, from 1996 to 2011.Results:Mortality rates due to heart failure declined in Brazil and its regions, except for the North and the Northeast. Mortality rates due to acute ischemic heart diseases increased in the North and Northeast regions, especially from 2005 on; they remained stable in the Center-West region; and decreased in the South and in the Southeast. Mortality due to chronic ischemic heart diseases decreased in Brazil and in the Center-West, South and Southeast regions, and had little variation in the North and in the Northeast. The highest mortality rates due to ill-defined causes occurred in the Northeast until 2005.Conclusions:Mortality due to heart failure is decreasing in Brazil and in all of its geoeconomic regions. The temporal evolution of mortality caused by ischemic heart diseases was similar to that of heart failure. The decreasing number of deaths due to ill-defined causes may represent the improvement in the quality of information about mortality in Brazil. The evolution of acute ischemic heart diseases ranged according to regions, being possibly confused with the differential evolution of ill-defined causes.

Clinical and echocardiographic predictors of mortality in chagasic cardiomyopathy - systematic review

Diagnosis, prognosis and evaluation of death risk in Chagas cardiomyopathy still constitute a challenge due to the diversity of manifestations, which determine the importance of using echocardiography, tissue Doppler and biomarkers. To evaluate, within a systematic review, clinical and echocardiographic profiles of patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy, which may be related to worse prognosis and major mortality risk. To perform the systematic review, we used Medline (via PubMed), LILACS and SciELO databases to identify 82 articles published from 1991 to 2012, with the following descriptors: echocardiography, mortality and Chagas disease. We selected 31 original articles, involving diagnostic and prognostic methods. The importance of Chagas disease has increased due to its emergence in Europe and United States, but most evidence came from Brazil. Among the predictors of worse prognosis and higher mortality risk are morphological and functional alterations in the left and right ventricles, evaluated by conventional echocardiography and tissue Doppler, as well as the increase in brain natriuretic peptide and troponin I concentrations. Recently, the evaluations of dyssynchrony, dysautonomia, as well as strain, strain rate and myocardial twisting were added to the diagnostic arsenal for the early differentiation of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Developments in imaging and biochemical diagnostic procedures have enabled more detailed cardiac evaluations, which demonstrate the early involvement of both ventricles, allowing a more accurate assessment of the mortality risk in Chagas disease.

Mortality and Embolic Potential of Cardiac Tumors

Background: Cardiac tumors are rare, mostly benign with high embolic potential. Objectives: To correlate the histological type of cardiac masses with their embolic potential, implantation site and long term follow up in patients undergoing surgery. Methods: Between January 1986 and December 2011, we retrospectively analyzed 185 consecutive patients who underwent excision of intracardiac mass (119 females, mean age 48±20 years). In 145 patients, the left atrium was the origin site. 72% were asymptomatic and prior embolization was often observed (19.8%). The diagnosis was established by echocardiography, magnetic resonance and histological examination. Results: Most tumors were located in the left side of the heart. Myxoma was the most common (72.6%), followed by fibromas (6.9%), thrombi (6.4%) and sarcomas (6.4%). Ranging from 0.6cm to 15cm (mean 4.6 ± 2.5cm) 37 (19.8%) patients had prior embolization, stroke 10.2%, coronary 4.8%, peripheral 4.3% 5.4% of hospital death, with a predominance of malignant tumors (40% p < 0.0001). The histological type was a predictor of mortality (rhabdomyomas and sarcomas p = 0.002) and embolic event (sarcoma, lipoma and fibroelastoma p = 0.006), but not recurrence. Tumor size, atrial fibrillation, cavity and valve impairment were not associated with the embolic event. During follow-up (mean 80±63 months), there were 2 deaths (1.1%) and two recurrences 1 and 11 years after the operation, to the same cavity. Conclusion: Most tumors were located in the left side of the heart. The histological type was predictor of death and preoperative embolic event, while the implantation site carries no relation with mortality or to embolic event.

Validation of the Killip-Kimball Classification and Late Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: The classification or index of heart failure severity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was proposed by Killip and Kimball aiming at assessing the risk of in-hospital death and the potential benefit of specific management of care provided in Coronary Care Units (CCU) during the decade of 60. Objective: To validate the risk stratification of Killip classification in the long-term mortality and compare the prognostic value in patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI) relative to patients with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI), in the era of reperfusion and modern antithrombotic therapies. Methods: We evaluated 1906 patients with documented AMI and admitted to the CCU, from 1995 to 2011, with a mean follow-up of 05 years to assess total mortality. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were developed for comparison between survival distributions according to Killip class and NSTEMI versus STEMI. Cox proportional regression models were developed to determine the independent association between Killip class and mortality, with sensitivity analyses based on type of AMI. Results: The proportions of deaths and the KM survival distributions were significantly different across Killip class >1 (p <0.001) and with a similar pattern between patients with NSTEMI and STEMI. Cox models identified the Killip classification as a significant, sustained, consistent predictor and independent of relevant covariables (Wald χ2 16.5 [p = 0.001], NSTEMI) and (Wald χ2 11.9 [p = 0.008], STEMI). Conclusion: The Killip and Kimball classification performs relevant prognostic role in mortality at mean follow-up of 05 years post-AMI, with a similar pattern between NSTEMI and STEMI patients.

Elevated Blood Pressure and Obesity in Childhood: A Cross-Sectional Evaluation of 4,609 Schoolchildren

Background: The incidence of obesity in children is increasing worldwide, primarily in urbanized, high-income countries, and hypertension development is a detrimental effect of this phenomenon. Objective: In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated the prevalence of excess weight and its association with high blood pressure (BP) in schoolchildren. Methods: Here 4,609 male and female children, aged 6 to 11 years, from 24 public and private schools in Maringa, Brazil, were evaluated. Nutritional status was assessed by body mass index (BMI) according to cutoff points adjusted for sex and age. Blood pressure (BP) levels above 90th percentile for gender, age and height percentile were considered elevated. Results: The prevalence of excess weight among the schoolchildren was 24.5%; 16.9% were overweight, and 7.6% were obese. Sex and socioeconomic characteristics were not associated with elevated BP. In all age groups, systolic and diastolic BP correlated with BMI and waist and hip measurements, but not with waist-hip ratio. The prevalence of elevated BP was 11.2% in eutrophic children, 20.6% in overweight children [odds ratio (OR), 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.61-2.45], and 39.7% in obese children (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 4.23-6.89). Conclusion: Obese and overweight children had a higher prevalence of elevated BP than normal-weight children. Our data confirm that the growing worldwide epidemic of excess weight and elevated BP in schoolchildren may also be ongoing in Brazil.

Relevance of Target-Organ Lesions as Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

Background: Patients with diabetes are in extract higher risk for fatal cardiovascular events. Objective: To evaluate major predictors of mortality in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Methods: A cohort of 323 individuals with type 2 diabetes from several regions of Brazil was followed for a long period. Baseline electrocardiograms, clinical and laboratory data obtained were used to determine hazard ratios (HR) and confidence interval (CI) related to cardiovascular and total mortality. Results: After 9.2 years of follow-up (median), 33 subjects died (17 from cardiovascular causes). Cardiovascular mortality was associated with male gender; smoking; prior myocardial infarction; long QTc interval; left ventricular hypertrophy; and eGFR <60 mL/min. These factors, in addition to obesity, were predictors of total mortality. Cardiovascular mortality was adjusted for age and gender, but remained associated with: smoking (HR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.3-11.8; p = 0.019); prior myocardial infarction (HR = 8.5; 95% CI 1.8-39.9; p = 0.007); eGFR < 60 mL/min (HR = 9.5; 95% CI 2.7-33.7; p = 0.001); long QTc interval (HR = 5.1; 95% CI 1.7-15.2; p = 0.004); and left ventricular hypertrophy (HR = 3.5; 95% CI 1.3-9.7; p = 0.002). Total mortality was associated with obesity (HR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-5.1; p = 0.030); smoking (HR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.0-6.1; p = 0.046); prior myocardial infarction (HR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.1; p = 0.005), and long QTc interval (HR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.1; p = 0.017). Conclusions: Biomarkers of simple measurement, particularly those related to target-organ lesions, were predictors of mortality in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes Mellitus and Glucose as Predictors of Mortality in Primary Coronary Percutaneous Intervention

Background: Diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose are important risk factors for mortality in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, but their relative and individual role remains on debate. Objective: To analyze the influence of diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose on the mortality of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention. Methods: Prospective cohort study including every ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patient submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention in a tertiary cardiology center from December 2010 to May 2012. We collected clinical, angiographic and laboratory data during hospital stay, and performed a clinical follow-up 30 days after the ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. We adjusted the multivariate analysis of the studied risk factors using the variables from the GRACE score. Results: Among the 740 patients included, reported diabetes mellitus prevalence was 18%. On the univariate analysis, both diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose were predictors of death in 30 days. However, after adjusting for potential confounders in the multivariate analysis, the diabetes mellitus relative risk was no longer significant (relative risk: 2.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.76 - 7.59; p-value: 0.13), whereas admission blood glucose remained and independent predictor of death in 30 days (relative risk: 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.02 - 1.09; p-value ≤ 0.01). Conclusion: In ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention, the admission blood glucose was a more accurate and robust independent predictor of death than the previous diagnosis of diabetes. This reinforces the important role of inflammation on the outcomes of this group of patients.

Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.