Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

INTERNATIONALIZATION OF BRAZILIAN FRANCHISE CHAINS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY

The primary goal of this paper is to comprehend the fundamental organizational differences between Brazilian franchise chains that only operate in the home market and Brazilian franchise chains that operate internationally. The sample chosen for this study comprehends 96 Brazilian franchises operating in the home market and 67 franchises with international operations; logistic regression was used to analyze data obtained from these sources. Our findings suggest that the development of a brand in international operations can be strategic for certain Brazilian franchise chains; this seems to be, however, a scarce resource for many franchises and it could be developed through international operations. With regard to the fees charged, the outcomes demonstrate that Brazilian franchises with international operations tend to charge lower fees from its franchisees to install new units. Regarding the monitoring and control of franchises, there is evidence that the monitoring capability is one of the determining factors in the development of Brazilian franchises international operations.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN AND SPANISH CRUISE PASSENGERS' BEHAVIORAL INTENTIONS

ABSTRACT Earlier studies of cross-national differences in consumer behavior in different consumption sectors have verified that cultural differences have a strong influence on consumers. Despite the importance of cross-national analysis, no studies in the literature examine the moderating effects of nationality on the construction of behavioral intentions and their antecedents among cruise line passengers. This study investigates the moderating effects of nationality on the relationships between perceived value, satisfaction, trust and behavioral intentions among Spanish and (U.S.) American passengers of cruise lines that use Barcelona as home port and port-of-call. A theoretical model was tested with a total of 968 surveys. Structural equation models (SEMs) were used, by means of a multigroup analysis. Results of this study indicated that Spaniards showed stronger relationships between trust and behavioral intentions, and between emotional value and satisfaction. Americans presented stronger relationships between service quality and satisfaction, and between service quality and behavioral intentions.

Methodology for the Comparative Analysis of Sustainable Evaluation of LUDA

LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission

Service Provision for visually disabled adults by Social Service Departments in Portugal and England: a Comparative Perspective

Este artigo apresenta os principais resultados de um estudo de casos realizado sobre a prestação de serviços para adultos com deficiência visual pelos departamentos de acção social das autarquias em Portugal e Inglaterra. Emergiu da pesquisa que existem diferenças significativas nos serviços prestados aos adultos com deficiência visual tendo em conta que os departamentos de acção social daqueles dois países estão estruturados diferentemente e existem dentro de uma estrutura económica, social, cultural e política diferente. No entanto, podemos concluir que em Inglaterra a oferta de bens e serviços pelas instâncias municipais é mais abrangente, especializada e tem uma longa história de existência. Pelo contrário em Portugal o Estado-Providência tem uma história recente, e às autarquias é atribuído um papel suplementar no que diz respeito à prestação de serviços para pessoas com deficiência visual.

Are public officials really less satisfied than private sector workers?A comparative study in Brazil

This research aims to compare the public and private sectors with regard to satisfaction at work. We conducted a survey with 670 professionals from both sectors in Brazil. The results of variance analysis confirm previous researches indicating that public officials are less satisfied with their work than private sector workers. However, this result does not repeat when we evaluate the satisfaction dimensions. For instance, public officials reported being more satisfied than private sector workers with regard to social environment and work stability. Unexpectedly, the results suggest that there is no difference between these sectors when we analyze the satisfaction with supervision. Therefore, this article is relevant for Brazilian managers, by offering an empirical research on the distinction between public and private. The article also discusses the theoretical implications, since Brazilian findings do not completely support the international literature.

A comparative benchmarking analysis of main Iberian container terminals: a DEA approach

Benchmarking is an important tool to organisations to improve their productivity, product quality, process efficiency or services. From Benchmarking the organisations could compare their performance with competitors and identify their strengths and weaknesses. This study intends to do a benchmarking analysis on the main Iberian Sea ports with a special focus on their container terminals efficiency. To attain this, the DEA (data envelopment analysis) is used since it is considered by several researchers as the most effective method to quantify a set of key performance indicators. In order to reach a more reliable diagnosis tool the DEA is used together with the data mining in comparing the sea ports operational data of container terminals during 2007.Taking into account that sea ports are global logistics networks the performance evaluation is essential to an effective decision making in order to improve their efficiency and, therefore, their competitiveness.

Evaluation of exposure parameters in plain radiography: a comparative study with european guidelines

Typical distribution of exposure parameters in plain radiography is unknown in Portugal. This study aims to identify exposure parameters that are being used in plain radiography in the Lisbon area and to compare the collected data with European references [Commission of European Communities (CEC) guidelines]. The results show that in four examinations (skull, chest, lumbar spine and pelvis), there is a strong tendency of using exposure times above the European recommendation. The X-ray tube potential values (in kV) are below the recommended values from CEC guidelines. This study shows that at a local level (Lisbon region), radiographic practice does not comply with CEC guidelines concerning exposure techniques. Further national/local studies are recommended with the objective to improve exposure optimisation and technical procedures in plain radiography. This study also suggests the need to establish national/local diagnostic reference levels and to proceed to effective measurements for exposure optimisation.

Comparative evaluation of underlying causes of death processed by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities and the Underlying Cause of Death Selection Systems

INTRODUCTION: The correct identification of the underlying cause of death and its precise assignment to a code from the International Classification of Diseases are important issues to achieve accurate and universally comparable mortality statistics These factors, among other ones, led to the development of computer software programs in order to automatically identify the underlying cause of death. OBJECTIVE: This work was conceived to compare the underlying causes of death processed respectively by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities (ACME) and the "Sistema de Seleção de Causa Básica de Morte" (SCB) programs. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The comparative evaluation of the underlying causes of death processed respectively by ACME and SCB systems was performed using the input data file for the ACME system that included deaths which occurred in the State of S. Paulo from June to December 1993, totalling 129,104 records of the corresponding death certificates. The differences between underlying causes selected by ACME and SCB systems verified in the month of June, when considered as SCB errors, were used to correct and improve SCB processing logic and its decision tables. RESULTS: The processing of the underlying causes of death by the ACME and SCB systems resulted in 3,278 differences, that were analysed and ascribed to lack of answer to dialogue boxes during processing, to deaths due to human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease for which there was no specific provision in any of the systems, to coding and/or keying errors and to actual problems. The detailed analysis of these latter disclosed that the majority of the underlying causes of death processed by the SCB system were correct and that different interpretations were given to the mortality coding rules by each system, that some particular problems could not be explained with the available documentation and that a smaller proportion of problems were identified as SCB errors. CONCLUSION: These results, disclosing a very low and insignificant number of actual problems, guarantees the use of the version of the SCB system for the Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases and assures the continuity of the work which is being undertaken for the Tenth Revision version.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

A comparative study of alternative approaches for common factors identification

Preliminary version

Actors in foreign television news: a comparative analysis

Foreign News about events that takes place in other country Actors are defined as people who appear in the item (as individuals or as representing some entity) speaking or being quoted (directly or indirectly)

Comparative study of power converter topologies and control strategies for the harmonic performance of variable-speed wind turbine generator systems

Power converters play a vital role in the integration of wind power into the electrical grid. Variable-speed wind turbine generator systems have a considerable interest of application for grid connection at constant frequency. In this paper, comprehensive simulation studies are carried out with three power converter topologies: matrix, two-level and multilevel. A fractional-order control strategy is studied for the variable-speed operation of wind turbine generator systems. The studies are in order to compare power converter topologies and control strategies. The studies reveal that the multilevel converter and the proposed fractional-order control strategy enable an improvement in the power quality, in comparison with the other power converters using a classical integer-order control strategy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.