Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Modelling and aerodynamic simulation of a vehicle and failure analysis of a laminated front fender

Master Thesis in Mechanical Engineering field of Maintenance and Production

Auditoria energética e da QAI no âmbito do SCE de um edifício de serviços

Este trabalho foi realizado no âmbito da disciplina de Dissertação/Estágio do ramo de Optimização Energética na Indústria Química, do Mestrado em Engenharia Química do Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto e foi desenvolvido na empresa GreenWatt. O principal objectivo é efectuar uma auditoria energética e uma auditoria QAI a uma clínica de fisiatria de forma a preparar as ferramentas necessárias para a Certificação Energética e da QAI no enquadramento do Sistema de Certificação Energética. Na auditoria QAI foram analisados parâmetros físicos - temperatura, humidade relativa e partículas respiráveis PM10, parâmetros químicos - CO2, CO, O3, COVs, HCOH e o radão, e ainda parâmetros microbiológicos - bactérias, fungos e legionella. Na auditoria energética foi feita a caracterização dos vectores de energia utilizados no edifício, nomeadamente, gás natural e electricidade. Para esta caracterização efectuou-se um levantamento de toda a informação disponível relativa aos combustíveis utilizados, iluminação instalada, outros equipamentos consumidores de energia e perfis de utilização. Com recurso a analisadores de energia foram ainda medidos os consumos eléctricos do edifício. Com suporte nos dados provenientes da auditoria energética e das facturas anuais efectuou-se a validação da simulação dinâmica do edifício. Esta simulação é a base do cálculo do IEEnominal do edifício. Os resultados da auditoria QAI, permitiram verificar que existem valores nãoregulamentares em relação aos compostos orgânicos voláteis, fungos e bactérias. Da auditoria energética concluiu-se que o principal consumo de energia é o gás natural utilizado pelas caldeiras existentes. Este valor representa cerca de 81% do consumo total de energia, reproduzindo os mesmos resultados obtidos pela desagregação das facturas energéticas. No que respeita à electricidade concluiu-se que as bombas de água e os equipamentos eléctricos são os maiores consumidores deste vector, com, respectivamente, 53% e 23% do consumo total de energia eléctrica. Após a realização da simulação dinâmica, com base nos levantamentos realizados no edifício e na auditoria energética efectuada, obteve-se uma fotografia do edifício no que respeita ao seu desempenho energético, e calculou-se um IEEnominal de 40,54 kgep/m2.ano o que qualifica o edifício com uma Classe Energética E. O valor de CO2 emitido por este edifício em termos nominais, anualmente, é de 76,39 toneladas.

Simulation and theory of hybrid aligned liquid crystal films

We present a study of the effects of nanoconfinement on a system of hard Gaussian overlap particles interacting with planar substrates through the hard-needle-wall potential, extending earlier work by two of us [D. J. Cleaver and P. I. C. Teixeira, Chem. Phys. Lett. 338, 1 (2001)]. Here, we consider the case of hybrid films, where one of the substrates induces strongly homeotropic anchoring, while the other favors either weakly homeotropic or planar anchoring. These systems are investigated using both Monte Carlo simulation and density-functional theory, the latter implemented at the level of Onsager's second-virial approximation with Parsons-Lee rescaling. The orientational structure is found to change either continuously or discontinuously depending on substrate separation, in agreement with earlier predictions by others. The theory is seen to perform well in spite of its simplicity, predicting the positional and orientational structure seen in simulations even for small particle elongations.

Biomechanical modeling and simulation of the spider crab (maja brachydactyla)

Uma linha de pesquisa e desenvolvimento na área da robótica, que tem recebido atenção crescente nos últimos anos, é o desenvolvimento de robôs biologicamente inspirados. A ideia é adquirir conhecimento de seres biológicos, cuja evolução ocorreu ao longo de milhões de anos, e aproveitar o conhecimento assim adquirido para implementar a locomoção pelos mesmos métodos (ou pelo menos usar a inspiração biológica) nas máquinas que se constroem. Acredita-se que desta forma é possível desenvolver máquinas com capacidades semelhantes às dos seres biológicos em termos de capacidade e eficiência energética de locomoção. Uma forma de compreender melhor o funcionamento destes sistemas, sem a necessidade de desenvolver protótipos dispendiosos e com longos tempos de desenvolvimento é usar modelos de simulação. Com base nestas ideias, o objectivo deste trabalho passa por efectuar um estudo da biomecânica da santola (Maja brachydactyla), uma espécie de caranguejo comestível pertencente à família Majidae de artrópodes decápodes, usando a biblioteca de ferramentas SimMechanics da aplicação Matlab / Simulink. Esta tese descreve a anatomia e locomoção da santola, a sua modelação biomecânica e a simulação do seu movimento no ambiente Matlab / SimMechanics e SolidWorks.

Modelling and segmentation of the vocal tract during speech production by using deformable models in magnetic resonance images

The first and second authors would like to thank the support of the PhD grants with references SFRH/BD/28817/2006 and SFRH/PROTEC/49517/2009, respectively, from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnol ogia (FCT). This work was partially done in the scope of the project “Methodologies to Analyze Organs from Complex Medical Images – Applications to Fema le Pelvic Cavity”, wi th reference PTDC/EEA- CRO/103320/2008, financially supported by FCT.

Simulation and life cycle assessment of process design alternatives for biodiesel production from waste vegetable oils

This study uses the process simulator ASPEN Plus and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare three process design alternatives for biodiesel production from waste vegetable oils that are: the conventional alkali-catalyzed process including a free fatty acids (FFAs) pre-treatment, the acid-catalyzed process, and the supercritical methanol process using propane as co-solvent. Results show that the supercritical methanol process using propane as co-solvent is the most environmentally favorable alternative. Its smaller steam consumption in comparison with the other process design alternatives leads to a lower contribution to the potential environmental impacts (PEI’s). The acid-catalyzed process generally shows the highest PEI’s, in particular due to the high energy requirements associated with methanol recovery operations.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Optimização da gestão de energia e da segurança de um edifício baseada num sistema técnico centralizado

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica Perfil Energia, Refrigeração e Climatização

Simulation of the magnetic induction vector of a magnetic core to be used in FFC NMR relaxometry

This paper is a contribution for the assessment and comparison of magnet properties based on magnetic field characteristics particularly concerning the magnetic induction uniformity in the air gaps. For this aim, a solver was developed and implemented to determine the magnetic field of a magnetic core to be used in Fast Field Cycling (FFC) Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) relaxometry. The electromagnetic field computation is based on a 2D finite-element method (FEM) using both the scalar and the vector potential formulation. Results for the magnetic field lines and the magnetic induction vector in the air gap are presented. The target magnetic induction is 0.2 T, which is a typical requirement of the FFC NMR technique, which can be achieved with a magnetic core based on permanent magnets or coils. In addition, this application requires high magnetic induction uniformity. To achieve this goal, a solution including superconducting pieces is analyzed. Results are compared with a different FEM program.

Characterizing the timing behaviour of power-line communication by means of simulation

Although power-line communication (PLC) is not a new technology, its use to support communication with timing requirements is still the focus of ongoing research. Recently, a new infrastructure was presented, intended for communication using power lines from a central location to geographically dispersed nodes using inexpensive devices. This new infrastructure uses a two-level hierarchical power-line system, together with an IP-based network. Within this infrastructure, in order to provide end-toend communication through the two levels of the powerline system, it is necessary to fully understand the behaviour of the underlying network layers. The masterslave behaviour of the PLC MAC, together with the inherent dynamic topology of power-line networks are important issues that must be fully characterised. Therefore, in this paper we present a simulation model which is being used to study and characterise the behaviour of power-line communication.

A few what-ifs on using statistical analysis of stochastic simulation runs to extract timeliness properties

Modern real-time systems, with a more flexible and adaptive nature, demand approaches for timeliness evaluation based on probabilistic measures of meeting deadlines. In this context, simulation can emerge as an adequate solution to understand and analyze the timing behaviour of actual systems. However, care must be taken with the obtained outputs under the penalty of obtaining results with lack of credibility. Particularly important is to consider that we are more interested in values from the tail of a probability distribution (near worst-case probabilities), instead of deriving confidence on mean values. We approach this subject by considering the random nature of simulation output data. We will start by discussing well known approaches for estimating distributions out of simulation output, and the confidence which can be applied to its mean values. This is the basis for a discussion on the applicability of such approaches to derive confidence on the tail of distributions, where the worst-case is expected to be.

Industrial ethernet: building blocks for a holistic approach

For industrial environments it is true that Ethernet technologies are there to stay. In fact, a number of characteristics are boosting the eagerness of extending Ethernet to also cover factory-floor applications. Fullduplex links, non-blocking and priority-based switching, bandwidth availability, just to mention a few, are characteristics upon which that eagerness is building up. But, will Ethernet technologies really manage to replace traditional field bus networks? Fieldbus fundamentalists often argue that the two things are not comparable. In fact, Ethernet technology, by itself, does not include features above the lower layers of the OSI communication model. Where are the higher layers and the application enablers that permit building real industrial applications? And, taking for free that they are available, what is the impact of those protocols, mechanisms and application models on the overall performance of Ethernet-based distributed factory-floor applications?

Timeliness in COTS factory-floor distributed systems: What role for simulation?

In the past few years, a significant amount of work has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies. However, none of these address the problem of timeliness evaluation at a holistic level. This paper describes a research framework embracing this objective. It is advocated that, simulation models can be a powerful tool, not only for timeliness evaluation, but also to enable the introduction of less pessimistic assumptions in an analytical response time approach, which, most often, are afflicted with simplifications leading to pessimistic assumptions and, therefore, delusive results. To this end, we address a few inter-linked research topics with the purpose of setting a framework for developing tools suitable to extract temporal properties of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) factory-floor communication systems.

Reabilitação de edifícios com novas tendências NZEB: caso de estudo: edifício de serviços em Setúbal

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil