Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

Brazil on the spot: Rio+20, sustainability and a role for science

Rio +20, or the United Nations Conference for Sustainable Development, will take place at the end of this month of June 2012. In this paper, our central argument is that Brazil, as the host of Rio+20, has a historic opportunity to make the conference a success and take a decisive step in becoming a world leader in the shift from the traditional development paradigm to a new, sustainable development paradigm. To do that, Brazil will have to resolve a paradox: on the one hand the country has modern legislation and world class science, and on the other hand very poor social and environmental decision-making in recent times. In this column, we examine the green economy as a trajectory that leads to sustainable development and describe some pilot experiences at the sub-national level in Brazil. We discuss how science, and particularly plant sciences, will be essential to the transition to sustainable development. Finally, we propose immediate actions that we call upon the Brazilian government to commit to and to announce during this pivotal Rio+20 moment, which should serve as a milestone for all nations in building a sustainable future.

Intravenous dipyrone for the acute treatment of episodic tension-type headache: A randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study

Acute headaches are responsible for a significant percentage of the case load at primary care units and emergency rooms in Brazil. Dipyrone (metamizol) is easily available in these settings, being the most frequently used drug. We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study to assess the effect of dipyrone in the acute treatment of episodic tension-type headache. Sixty patients were randomized to receive placebo (intravenous injection of 10 ml saline) or 1 g dipyrone in 10 ml saline. We used seven parameters of analgesic evaluation. The patients receiving dipyrone showed a statistically significant improvement (P<0.05) of pain compared to placebo up to 30 min after drug administration. The therapeutic gain was 30% in 30 min and 40% in 60 min. The number of patients needed to be treated for at least one to have benefit was 3.3 in 30 min and 2.2 in 60 min. There were statistically significant reductions in the recurrence (dipyrone = 25%, placebo = 50%) and use of rescue medication (dipyrone = 20%, placebo = 47.6%) for the dipyrone group. Intravenous dipyrone is an effective drug for the relief of pain in tension-type headache and its use is justified in the emergency room setting.

A randomized double-blind study of the short-time treatment of obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with ursodeoxycholic acid

In order to determine the effect of ursodeoxycholic acid on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 30 patients with body mass indices higher than 25, serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) or gamma-glutamyltransferase (gamma-GT) at least more than 1.5 times the upper limit of normality, and hepatic steatosis demonstrated by ultrasonography were randomized into two groups of 15 patients to receive placebo or 10 mg kg-1 day-1 ursodeoxycholic acid for three months. Abdominal computed tomography was performed to quantify hepatic fat content, which was significantly correlated with histological grading of steatosis (r s = -0.83, P < 0.01). Patient body mass index remained stable for both groups throughout the study, but a significant reduction in mean (± SEM) serum levels of ALT, AST and gamma-GT was observed only in the treated group (ALT = 81.2 ± 9.7, 44.8 ± 7.7, 48.1 ± 7.7 and 52.2 ± 6.3 IU/l at the beginning and after the first, second and third months, respectively, N = 14, P < 0.05). For the placebo group ALT values were 66.4 ± 9.8, 54.5 ± 7, 60 ± 7.6 and 43.7 ± 5 IU/l, respectively. No alterations in hepatic lipid content were observed in these patients by computed tomography examination (50.2 ± 4.2 Hounsfield units (HU) at the beginning versus 51.1 ± 4.1 HU at the third month). These results show that ursodeoxycholic acid is able to reduce serum levels of hepatic enzymes in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, but this effect is not related to modifications in liver fat content.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

A randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlled study with tranexamic acid of bleeding and fibrinolytic activity after primary coronary artery bypass grafting

Cardiopulmonary bypass is frequently associated with excessive blood loss. Platelet dysfunction is the main cause of non-surgical bleeding after open-heart surgery. We randomized 65 patients in a double-blind fashion to receive tranexamic acid or placebo in order to determine whether antifibrinolytic therapy reduces chest tube drainage. The tranexamic acid group received an intravenous loading dose of 10 mg/kg, before the skin incision, followed by a continuous infusion of 1 mg kg-1 h-1 for 5 h. The placebo group received a bolus of normal saline solution and continuous infusion of normal saline for 5 h. Postoperative bleeding and fibrinolytic activity were assessed. Hematologic data, convulsive seizures, allogeneic transfusion, occurrence of myocardial infarction, mortality, allergic reactions, postoperative renal insufficiency, and reopening rate were also evaluated. The placebo group had a greater postoperative blood loss (median (25th to 75th percentile) 12 h after surgery (540 (350-750) vs 300 (250-455) mL, P = 0.001). The placebo group also had greater blood loss 24 h after surgery (800 (520-1050) vs 500 (415-725) mL, P = 0.008). There was a significant increase in plasma D-dimer levels after coronary artery bypass grafting only in patients of the placebo group, whereas no significant changes were observed in the group treated with tranexamic acid. The D-dimer levels were 1057 (1025-1100) µg/L in the placebo group and 520 (435-837) µg/L in the tranexamic acid group (P = 0.01). We conclude that tranexamic acid effectively reduces postoperative bleeding and fibrinolysis in patients undergoing first-time coronary artery bypass grafting compared to placebo.

A randomized double-blind clinical trial of the effect of non-absorbable oral polymyxin on infants with severe infectious diarrhea

The present study evaluated the effect of non-absorbable oral polymyxin on the duodenal microflora and clinical outcome of infants with severe infectious diarrhea. Polymyxin was chosen because classic enteropathogenic Escherichia coli was more sensitive to this antibiotic. Twenty-five infants were randomly assigned to a 7-day treatment with oral polymyxin (2.5 mg/kg in 4 daily doses) or placebo. Duodenal and stool cultures were performed before and after the treatment. Five patients were excluded during the study because of introduction of parental antibiotic therapy due to clinical sepsis (N = 3) or rapid clinical improvement (N = 2). In the polymyxin group, small bowel bacterial overgrowth occurred in 61.5% of the cases (8/13) before treatment and in 76.9% (10/13) after treatment. In the placebo group these values were 71.4% (5/7) and 57.1% (4/7), respectively. By the 7th day, clinical cure was observed in 84.6% of the cases (11/13) in the polymyxin group and in 71.4% (5/7) in the placebo group (P = 0.587). Considering all 25 patients included in the study, clinical cure occurred on the 7th day in 12/14 cases (85.7%) in the polymyxin group and 6/11 cases (54.5%) in the placebo group (P = 0.102). Clinical sepsis occurred in 3/11 (27.3%) of the patients in the placebo group and in none (0/14) in the polymyxin group (P = 0.071). Oral polymyxin was not effective in reducing bacterial overgrowth or in improving the clinical outcome of infants hospitalized with severe infectious diarrhea. Taking into account the small sample size, the rate of cure on the 7th day and the rate of clinical sepsis, further studies with greater number of patients are necessary to evaluate these questions.

Double-blind trial of the efficacy of pentoxifylline vs thalidomide for the treatment of type II reaction in leprosy

Type II reaction in leprosy, or erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL), is often characterized by severe clinical symptoms together with nerve function impairment leading to permanent disabilities. Thalidomide has been shown to be a highly effective drug for the treatment of ENL. It is, however, contraindicated for women of childbearing age due to its teratogenicity. On the other hand, pentoxifylline, used to treat hypercoagulable states, is not teratogenic and, like thalidomide, can inhibit the synthesis of tumor necrosis factor-a and other cytokines. In the present randomized double-blind clinical study we compared the effectiveness of orally administered pentoxifylline vs thalidomide in treating type II reaction in 44 patients. Daily doses of 300 mg thalidomide or 1.2 g pentoxifylline were administered for 30 days to multibacillary leprosy patients undergoing type II reaction. Randomly chosen patients were included in the study before, during, and after specific multidrug therapy. Clinical evaluations were performed on the 1st, 7th, 14th, 21st, and 30th days of treatment and laboratory tests were carried out on the 1st and 30th days. As expected, overall, thalidomide proved to be more effective in the treatment of type II leprosy reaction. Nevertheless, continuous treatment with pentoxifylline was effective in relieving the clinical signs of ENL, especially limb edema and systemic symptoms, in 62.5% of the patients.

A double-blind comparison of the effect of the antipsychotics haloperidol and olanzapine on sleep in mania

The effects of haloperidol and olanzapine on polysomnographic measures made in bipolar patients during manic episodes were compared. Twelve DSM-IV mania patients were randomly assigned to receive either haloperidol (mean ± SD final dosage: 5.8 ± 3.8 mg) or olanzapine (mean ± SD final dosage: 13.6 ± 6.9 mg) in a 6-week, double-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial. One-night polysomnographic evaluation was performed before and after the haloperidol or olanzapine treatment. Psychopathology and illness severity were rated respectively with the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) and the Clinical Global Impressions - Bipolar version (CGI-BP). There was a significant improvement in the YMRS and CGI-BP scores at the end of the study for both groups. Mixed ANOVA used to compare the polysomnographic measures of both drugs demonstrated significant improvement in sleep measures with olanzapine. In the olanzapine group, statistically significant time-drug interaction effects on sleep continuity measures were observed: sleep efficiency (mean ± SEM pre-treatment value: 6.7 ± 20.3%; after-treatment: 85.7 ± 10.9%), total wake time (pre-treatment: 140.0 ± 92.5 min; after-treatment: 55.2 ± 44.2 min), and wake time after sleep onset (pre-treatment: 109.7 ± 70.8 min; after-treatment: 32.2 ± 20.7 min). Conversely, improvement of polysomnographic measures was not observed for the haloperidol group (P > 0.05). These results suggest that olanzapine is more effective than haloperidol in terms of sleep-promoting effects, although olanzapine is comparatively as effective as haloperidol in treating mania. Polysomnography records should provide useful information on how manic states can be affected by psychopharmacological agents.

Spot urine porphyrins/creatinine ratio profile of healthy Brazilian individuals adjusted for personal habits

Changes in urinary porphyrin excretion may be the result of hereditary causes and/or from environmental or occupational exposure. The objective of this study was to measure the amount of some porphyrins in spot urine samples obtained from volunteers randomly selected from a healthy adult population of São Paulo with a sensitive HPLC method and to estimate normal ranges for a non-exposed population. Spot urine samples were collected from 126 subjects (both genders, 18 to 65 years old) not occupationally exposed to porphyrinogenic agents. Porphyrin fractions were separated on RP-18 HPLC column eluted with a methanol/ammonium acetate buffer gradient, pH 4.0, and measured fluorometrically (excitation 405 nm/emission 620 nm). The amount of porphyrins was corrected for urinary creatinine excretion. Only 8-carboxyl (uro) and 4-carboxyl (copro) porphyrins were quantified as µg/g creatinine. Data regarding age, gender, occupational activities, smoking and drinking habits were analyzed by Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Uroporphyrin results did not differ significantly between the subgroups studied. Copro and uro + copro porphyrins were significantly different for smokers (P = 0.008) and occupational activities (P = 0.004). With respect to alcohol consumption, only men drinking >20 g/week showed significant differences in the levels of copro (P = 0.022) and uro + copro porphyrins (P = 0.012). The 2.5-97.5th percentile limit values, excluding those for subjects with an alcohol drinking habit >20 g/week, were 0-20.8, 11.7-93.1, and 15.9-102.9 µg/g creatinine for uro, copro and uro + copro porphyrins, respectively. These percentile limit values can be proposed as a first attempt to provide urinary porphyrin reference values for our population, serving for an early diagnosis of porphyrinopathies or as biomarkers of exposure to porphyrinogenic agents.

Effects of isoflavone on the learning and memory of women in menopause: a double-blind placebo-controlled study

Hormone decline is common to all women during aging and, associated with other factors, leads to cognitive impairment. Its replacement enhances cognitive performance, but not all women present a clinical and family or personal history that justifies its use, mainly women with a history of cancer. The aim of this study was to determine whether a daily oral dose of 80 mg of isoflavone extract for 4 months can produce benefits in women with low hormone levels, contributing to improvement in cognitive aspects. The sample comprised 50- to 65-year-old women whose menstruation had ceased at least 1 year before and who had not undergone hormone replacement. The volunteers were allocated to two groups of 19 individuals each, i.e., isoflavone and placebo. There was a weak correlation between menopause duration and low performance in the capacity to manipulate information (central executive). We observed an increase in the capacity to integrate information in the group treated with isoflavone, but no improvement in the capacity to form new memories. We did not observe differences between groups in terms of signs and symptoms suggestive of depression according to the Geriatric Depression Scale. Our results point to a possible beneficial effect of isoflavone on some abilities of the central executive. These effects could also contribute to minimizing the impact of memory impairment. Further research based on controlled clinical trials is necessary to reach consistent conclusions.

Effects of conventional vs high-dose rocuronium on the QTc interval during anesthesia induction and intubation in patients undergoing coronary artery surgery: a randomized, double-blind, parallel trial

Myocardial ischemia, as well as the induction agents used in anesthesia, may cause corrected QT interval (QTc) prolongation. The objective of this randomized, double-blind trial was to determine the effects of high- vs conventional-dose bolus rocuronium on QTc duration and the incidence of dysrhythmias following anesthesia induction and intubation. Fifty patients about to undergo coronary artery surgery were randomly allocated to receive conventional-dose (0.6 mg/kg, group C, n=25) or high-dose (1.2 mg/kg, group H, n=25) rocuronium after induction with etomidate and fentanyl. QTc, heart rate, and mean arterial pressure were recorded before induction (T0), after induction (T1), after rocuronium (just before laryngoscopy; T2), 2 min after intubation (T3), and 5 min after intubation (T4). The occurrence of dysrhythmias was recorded. In both groups, QTc was significantly longer at T3 than at baseline [475 vs 429 ms in group C (P=0.001), and 459 vs 434 ms in group H (P=0.005)]. The incidence of dysrhythmias in group C (28%) and in group H (24%) was similar. The QTc after high-dose rocuronium was not significantly longer than after conventional-dose rocuronium in patients about to undergo coronary artery surgery who were induced with etomidate and fentanyl. In both groups, compared with baseline, QTc was most prolonged at 2 min after intubation, suggesting that QTc prolongation may be due to the nociceptive stimulus of intubation.

Effects of grape powder supplementation on inflammatory and antioxidant markers in hemodialysis patients: A randomized double-blind study

Introduction: Polyphenols contained in natural sources such as grapes, have been considered pharmacological agents to combat oxidative stress and inflammation, common features in Chronic Kidney Disease patients. Objective: To evaluate the effects of grape powder supplementation on inflammatory and antioxidant biomarkers in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Methods: The double-blind placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial evaluated non-diabetic HD patients that received grape powder (500 mg of polyphenols/day) (n = 16, 9 men, 53.0 ± 9.8 years of age, 111.6 ± 58.2 HD months) or placebo (n = 16, 9 men, 52.7 ± 13.7 years of age, 110.4 ± 93.1 HD months) for five weeks. The glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) activity and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were evaluated by ELISA method. Results: After the intervention period, the patients receiving grape powder showed an increase in the GSH-Px activity (16.5 (41.0) to 42.0 (43.3) nmol/min/ml) (p < 0.05) and they did not have the CRP levels increased as seen in placebo group (2.6 (0.28) to 2.8 (0.23 mg/L) (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The use of grape powder as phenolic source could play an important role as an antioxidant and anti-inflammatory agent in non-diabetic HD patients.

Hydrologisen tilanteen ja tuulivoimatuotannon muutosten vaikutus vesiarvoihin pohjoismaisilla sähkön spot-markkinoilla

Vesivoimalla on merkittävä rooli pohjoismaisessa sähköntuotantojärjestelmässä. Spot-markkinoille tarjottavan vesivoiman hinta riippuu vaihtoehtoisen tuotannon hinnasta ja odotetusta vesivoimantuottajien käytettävissä olevasta veteen sitoutuneen potentiaalienergian määrästä. Hydrologisella tilanteella tarkoitetaan tässä tämän potentiaalienergian poikkeamaa normaalitasostaan. Viime vuosina tuulivoimatuotanto pohjoismaisella sähkömarkkina-alueella on kasvanut voimakkaasti, ja on tullut aiheelliseksi tarkastella, millaisia vaikutuksia tällä on vesivoimantuottajien toimintaan. Työssä määritellään vesivoimalle vaihtoehtoisen sähköntuotannon tuotantokustannus, joka pitkällä aikavälillä toimii vertailutasona, jonka perusteella vesivoimantuottajat määrittävät markkinoilla tarjontahinnan tuotannolleen. Tarkastellaan, kuinka hydrologisen tilanteen ja vaihtoehtoisen tuotannon tuotantokustannusten muutokset vaikuttavat vesiarvoon, joka on hinta, jolla hintariippuvaista eli säätyvää vesivoimaa tarjotaan spot-markkinoille. Todetaan, että hydrologisen tilanteen vahvistuminen ja vaihtoehtoisen tuotantokustannuksen aleneminen alentavat vesiarvoja. Todetaan lisäksi, että tuulivoima vaikuttaa sähkön hinnanmuodostukseen markkinoilla samankaltaisesti kuin hintariippumaton vesivoimatuotanto. Esitetään aikasarjamalli vesivoimatuotannon hintariippuvuuden mallintamiseksi. Vertaillaan vesivoimatuottajien toimintaa kahdella vesivoimatuotantoa sisältävällä hinta-alueella, joista toisella tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut voimakkaammin kuin toisella. Havaitaan, että molemmilla hinta-alueilla hydrologisen tilanteen vahvistuminen on alentanut ja heikkeneminen nostanut vesiarvoja. Lisäksi havaitaan, että alueella, jonka tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut enemmän, vesiarvot ovat laskeneet suhteessa alueen, jolla tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut vähemmän, vesiarvoihin. Tuulivoiman voidaan todeta syrjäyttäneen markkinoilta tuotantokustannuksiltaan kalliimpaa tuotantoa.