971 resultados para Bayesian variable selection
Anthropometric characteristics and motor skills in talent selection and development in indoor soccer
Resumo:
Kick performance, anthropometric characteristics, slalom, and linear running were assessed in 49 (24 elite, 25 nonelite) postpubertal indoor soccer players in order to (a) verify whether anthropometric characteristics and physical and technical capacities can distinguish players of different competitive levels, (b) compare the kicking kinematics of these groups, with and without a defined target, and (c) compare results on the assessments and coaches` subjective rankings of the players. Thigh circumference and specific technical capacities differentiated the players by level of play; cluster analysis correctly classified 77.5% of the players. The correlation between players` standardized measures and the coaches` rankings was 0.29. Anthropometric characteristics and physical capacities do not necessarily differentiate players at post-pubertal stages and should not be overvalued during early development. Considering the coaches` rankings, performance measures outside the specific game conditions may not be useful in identification of talented players.
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To evaluate the potential for fermentation of raspberry pulp, sixteen yeast strains (S. cerevisiae and S. bayanus) were studied. Volatile compounds were determined by GC-MS, GC-FID, and GC-PFPD. Ethanol. glycerol and organic acids were determined by HPLC. HPLC-DAD was used to analyse phenolic acids. Sensory analysis was performed by trained panellists. After a screening step, CAT-1, UFLA FW 15 and S. bayanus CBS 1505 were previously selected based on their fermentative characteristics and profile of the metabolites identified. The beverage produced with CAT-1 showed the highest volatile fatty acid concentration (1542.6 mu g/L), whereas the beverage produced with UFLA FIN 15 showed the highest concentration of acetates (2211.1 mu g/L) and total volatile compounds (5835 mu g/L). For volatile sulphur compounds. 566.5 mu g/L were found in the beverage produced with S. bayanus CBS 1505. The lowest concentration of volatile sulphur compounds (151.9 mu g/L) was found for the beverage produced with UFLA FW 15. In the sensory analysis, the beverage produced with UFLA FW 15 was characterised by the descriptors raspberry, cherry, sweet, strawberry, floral and violet. In conclusion, strain UFLA FW 15 was the yeast that produced a raspberry wine with a good chemical and sensory quality. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A combination of an extension of the topological instability ""lambda criterion"" and a thermodynamic criterion were applied to the Al-La system, indicating the best range of compositions for glass formation. Alloy compositions in this range were prepared by melt-spinning and casting in an arc-melting furnace with a wedge-section copper mold. The GFA of these samples was evaluated by X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and scanning electron microscopy. The results indicated that the gamma* parameter of compositions with high GFA is higher, corresponding to a range in which the lambda parameter is greater than 0.1, which are compositions far from Al solid solution. A new alloy was identified with the best GFA reported so far for this system, showing a maximum thickness of 286 mu m in a wedge-section copper mold. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This research employs solid-state actuators for delay of flow separation seen in airfoils at low Reynolds numbers. The flow control technique investigated here is aimed for a variable camber airfoil that employs two active surfaces and a single four-bar (box) mechanism as the internal structure. To reduce separation, periodic excitation to the flow around the leading edge of the airfoil is induced by a total of nine piezocomposite actuated clamped-free unimorph benders distributed in the spanwise direction. An electromechanical model is employed to design an actuator capable of high deformations at the desired frequency for lift improvement at post-stall angles. The optimum spanwise distribution of excitation for increasing lift coefficient is identified experimentally in the wind tunnel. A 3D (non-uniform) excitation distribution achieved higher lift enhancement in the post-stall region with lower power consumption when compared to the 2D (uniform) excitation distribution. A lift coefficient increase of 18.4% is achieved with the identified non-uniform excitation mode at the bender resonance frequency of 125 Hz, the flow velocity of 5 m/s and at the reduced frequency of 3.78. The maximum lift (Clmax) is increased 5.2% from the baseline. The total power consumption of the flow control technique is 639 mW(RMS).
Resumo:
This paper investigates how to make improved action selection for online policy learning in robotic scenarios using reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Since finding control policies using any RL algorithm can be very time consuming, we propose to combine RL algorithms with heuristic functions for selecting promising actions during the learning process. With this aim, we investigate the use of heuristics for increasing the rate of convergence of RL algorithms and contribute with a new learning algorithm, Heuristically Accelerated Q-learning (HAQL), which incorporates heuristics for action selection to the Q-Learning algorithm. Experimental results on robot navigation show that the use of even very simple heuristic functions results in significant performance enhancement of the learning rate.
Resumo:
This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The practicability of estimating directional wave spectra based on a vessel`s 1st order response has been recently addressed by several researchers. Different alternatives regarding statistical inference methods and possible drawbacks that could arise from their application have been extensively discussed, with an apparent preference for estimations based on Bayesian inference algorithms. Most of the results on this matter, however, rely exclusively on numerical simulations or at best on few and sparse full-scale measurements, comprising a questionable basis for validation purposes. This paper discusses several issues that have recently been debated regarding the advantages of Bayesian inference and different alternatives for its implementation. Among those are the definition of the best set of input motions, the number of parameters required for guaranteeing smoothness of the spectrum in frequency and direction and how to determine their optimum values. These subjects are addressed in the light of an extensive experimental campaign performed with a small-scale model of an FPSO platform (VLCC hull), which was conducted in an ocean basin in Brazil. Tests involved long and short crested seas with variable levels of directional spreading and also bimodal conditions. The calibration spectra measured in the tank by means of an array of wave probes configured the paradigm for estimations. Results showed that a wide range of sea conditions could be estimated with good precision, even those with somewhat low peak periods. Some possible drawbacks that have been pointed out in previous works concerning the viability of employing large vessels for such a task are then refuted. Also, it is shown that a second parameter for smoothing the spectrum in frequency may indeed increase the accuracy in some situations, although the criterion usually proposed for estimating the optimum values (ABIC) demands large computational effort and does not seem adequate for practical on-board systems, which require expeditious estimations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Due to its outstanding flexibility, batch distillation is still widely used in many separation processes. In the present work, a comparison between constant and variable reflux operations is studied. Firstly, a mathematical model is developed and then validated through comparison between predicted and experimental results accomplished in a lab-scale apparatus. Therefore, case studies are performed through mathematical simulations. It is noted that the most economical form of batch distillation is at constant overhead product composition, keeping the flow rate of vapor from the top of the column constant. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Model predictive control (MPC) is usually implemented as a control strategy where the system outputs are controlled within specified zones, instead of fixed set points. One strategy to implement the zone control is by means of the selection of different weights for the output error in the control cost function. A disadvantage of this approach is that closed-loop stability cannot be guaranteed, as a different linear controller may be activated at each time step. A way to implement a stable zone control is by means of the use of an infinite horizon cost in which the set point is an additional variable of the control problem. In this case, the set point is restricted to remain inside the output zone and an appropriate output slack variable is included in the optimisation problem to assure the recursive feasibility of the control optimisation problem. Following this approach, a robust MPC is developed for the case of multi-model uncertainty of open-loop stable systems. The controller is devoted to maintain the outputs within their corresponding feasible zone, while reaching the desired optimal input target. Simulation of a process of the oil re. ning industry illustrates the performance of the proposed strategy.
Resumo:
The aim of this work was the development of miniaturized structures useful for retention and/or selection of particles and viscous substances from a liquid flow. The proposed low costs structures are similar to macroscopic wastewater treatment systems, named baffles, and allow disassemble. They were simulated using FEMLAB 3.2b package and manufactured in acrylic with conventional tools. Tests for retention or selection of particles in water or air and viscous fluids in water were carried out. Either in air or water particles with 50 mu m diameter will be retained but not with 13 mu m diameter. In aqueous flow, it is also possible the retention of viscous samples, such as silicone 350 cSt. The simulated results showed good agreement with experimental measurements. These miniaturized structures can be useful in sample pretreatment for chemical analysis and microorganism manipulation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Saccharomyces cerevisiae hexokinase-less strains were produced to study the production of ethanol and fructose from sucrose. These strains do not have the hexokinases A and B. Twenty-three double-mutant strains were produced, and then, three were selected for presenting a smaller growth in yeast extract-peptone-fructose. In fermentations with a medium containing sucrose (180.3 g L-1) and with cell recycles, simulating industrial conditions, the capacity of these mutant yeasts in inverting sucrose and fermenting only glucose was well characterized. Besides that, we could also see their great tolerance to the stresses of fermentative recycles, where fructose production (until 90 g L-1) and ethanol production (until 42.3 g L-1) occurred in cycles of 12 h, in which hexokinase-less yeasts performed high growth (51.2% of wet biomass) and viability rates (77% of viable cells) after nine consecutive cycles.
Resumo:
Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.
Resumo:
A new strain of the parasitoid Trichogramma pretiosum, was collected in Rio Verde County, State of Goias, Central Brazil, and designated as T. pretiosum RV. This strain was then found to be the most effective one among several different strains of T. pretiosum tested in a parasitoid selection assay. Therefore, its biological characteristics and thermal requirements were studied, aiming at allowing its multiplication under controlled environmental conditions in the laboratory. The parasitoid was reared on eggs of Pseudoplusia includens and Anticarsia gemmatalis at different constant temperatures within an 18-32 degrees C temperature range. The number of annual generations of the parasitoid was also estimated at those temperatures. Results have shown that T. pretiosum RV developmental time, from egg to adult, was influenced by all temperatures tested within the range, varying from 6.8 to 20.3 days and 6.0 to 17.0 days on eggs of P. includens and A. gemmatalis, respectively. The emergence of T. pretiosum RV from eggs of A. gemmatalis was higher than 94% at all temperatures tested. When this variable was evaluated on eggs of P. includens, however, the figures were higher than that within the 18-30 degrees C range (more than 98%), and were also statistically higher than the emergence observed at 32 degrees C (90.2%). The sex ratio of the parasitoids emerged from eggs of A. gemmatalis decreased from 0.55 to 0.29 at 18-32 degrees C, respectively. However, for those emerged from eggs of P. includens, the sex ratio was similar (0.73, 0.72 and 0.71) at 20, 28 and 32 degrees C, respectively. The lower temperature threshold (Tb) and thermal constant (K) were 10.65 degrees C and 151.25 degree-days when the parasitoid was reared on eggs of P. includens; and 11.64 degrees C and 127.60 degree-days when reared on eggs of A. gemmatalis. The number of generations per month increased from 1.45 to 4.23 and from 1.49 to 4.79 when the parasitoid was reared on eggs of P. includens and A. gemmatalis, respectively, following the increases in the temperature. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.
Resumo:
Maize (Zea mays L.) is a very important cereal to world-wide economy which is also true for Brazil, particularly in the South region. Grain yield and plant height have been chosen as important criteria by breeders and farmers from Santa Catarina State (SC), Brazil. The objective of this work was to estimate genetic-statistic parameters associated with genetic gain for grain yield and plant height, in the first cycle of convergent-divergent half-sib selection in a maize population (MPA1) cultivated by farmers within the municipality of Anchieta (SC). Three experiments were carried out in different small farms at Anchieta using low external agronomic inputs; each experiment represented independent samples of half-sib families, which were evaluated in randomized complete blocks with three replications per location. Significant differences among half-sib families were observed for both variables in all experiments. The expected responses to truncated selection of the 25% better families in each experiment were 5.1, 5.8 and 5.2% for reducing plant height and 3.9, 5.7 and 5.0% for increasing grain yield, respectively. The magnitudes of genetic-statistic parameters estimated evidenced that the composite population MPA1 exhibits enough genetic variability to be used in cyclical process of recurrent selection. There were evidences that the genetic structure of the base population MPA1, as indicated by its genetic variability, may lead to expressive changes in the traits under selection, even under low selection pressure.